Breaking Down the Brisnet Prime Power Rating
It’s no
secret that, for many moons now, I have been trying to beat the game with
mechanical methods of play. In large part, because I simply don’t have time to
handicap like I did 5-6 years ago… nor do I enjoy the process like I used to.
It is also
no secret that I have been largely unsuccessful in this endeavor.
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve found some great systems and angles — ones that,
through testing, I am confident will continue to offer solid ROIs for months
and years to come. But, alas, they all suffer from “Tony Romo Disease” — they don’t
show up often enough to produce consistent, meaningful returns.
Still, I
love the idea of a mechanical method that can, at the very least, help guide
one’s wagering decisions. So, with that in mind, I decided to slice and dice
the Brisnet Prime Power Rating and see if I could find any helpful wagering angles.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
First,
using a database of random races run from July 2012 to February 2013 at racetracks
across the country, I examined the horse with the top (highest) Prime Power
rating in the field. (In the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, the
Prime Power rating and field rank is found right before the horse’s lifetime
record — see California Chrome above.)
Number:
11,953
Winners:
3,972
Win Rate:
33.2%
$2 Return: $1.75
ROI: -15.09%
IV: 2.48
Not bad. These numbers are similar to what one would expect
from the post-time favorite, which gives us a good starting point. Now let’s
see what happens when the top Prime Power horse goes to post as a morning-line
overlay (odds greater than or equal to the morning line) or a morning-line
underlay (odds less than the morning line):
OVERLAYS
Number: 2,186
Winners: 428
Win Rate: 19.6%
$2 Return: $1.64
ROI: -17.81%
IV: 1.49
UNDERLAYS
Number: 9,767
Winners: 3,544
Win Rate: 36.3%
$2 Return: $1.71
ROI: -14.48%
IV: 2.70
While
these numbers may surprise some readers, who assume that higher prices
naturally mean higher profits, they are, I have found, very indicative of what
happens when one looks for overlay opportunities with “obvious” contenders.
Caveat
emptor applies at the racetrack too.
A horse
that looks like a legitimate 2-1 shot does not necessarily offer “value” at
20-1. Rather than rushing to the window to empty one’s 401(k) on such horses,
players should ask themselves a simple question: Why? Why is a horse with so
many positive attributes (remember, the Prime Power rating is a comprehensive assessment of ability) being
dismissed in the wagering? What is the crowd considering that the Prime Power
rating is not?
Granted, some
of these horses are, in fact, genuinely overlooked. I’ve witnessed numerous
animals that I thought were fairly-priced at 2-1 or less pay double digits — but
that is the exception, not the rule.
With this
in mind, it should come as no surprise that horses with the top Prime Power
rating in a race actually perform better when that rating is lower, rather than
higher:
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
* Top prime power rating of 100 or greater.
Number: 11,294
Winners: 3,752
Win Rate: 33.2%
$2 Return: $1.69
ROI: -15.36%
IV: 2.49
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
Number: 659
Winners: 220
Win Rate: 33.4%
$2 Return: $1.79
ROI: -10.55%
IV: 2.42
Moreover,
horses with the top Prime Power rating that finished poorly last time out
(fifth or worse) return a profit — further proof that factors esteemed by the public, i.e. a good last race, are best avoided when looking for overlays:
* Top
prime power rating of less than 100.
* Finished fifth or worse in last race.
Number: 225
Winners: 74
Win Rate: 32.9%
$2 Return: $2.03
ROI: +1.69%
IV: 2.36
Of course,
there is nothing to say that these numbers will continue to hold, but I hope
they illustrate both the pros and cons of a mechanical approach.
On the
plus side, using the Brisnet Prime Power rating is quick and easy and, in some
instances, profitable. On the negative side, all mechanical approaches suffer
from one major drawback: they can only measure what was… not what is or what
will be.
Nonetheless,
handicappers willing to put in the time to validate or invalidate a mechanical
rating might very well profit from the experience.
 |
(Click on image to enlarge)
|
NOTE: Rue
Saint Honore had a race-best 95.6 Prime Power rating and finished 7th
in her last race on July 29, 2012.
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Wyze 1080p hd comes with an in-built speaker allowing 2-way audio enabling you to speak to sudden guests in your absence. While working at the office, you get notified of any smoke alarm or suspicious sound.
Die Installation von devolo WLAN-Boostern ist kinderleicht. Die Konfiguration und seine Größe machen es bequemer, das Gerät einfach zu installieren. Auch wenn Sie irgendwelche Probleme damit haben, besuchen Sie uns einfach.
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The RAID controller acts as a level of abstraction between the operating system and the physical disks where the partitions of the disks are presented as logical drives.
Je größer die Bandbreite, desto mehr Datenverkehr kann der Extender bewältigen. Beispielsweise wird das N600 in der Lage sein, einer größeren Anzahl von Geräten gleichzeitig eine höhere Geschwindigkeit zu liefern.
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It’s important to know the centurylink how to change wifi password procedure. There are two ways for this process, one is via the web browser and the other is through the CenturyLink app. You just need to log into your app, and then from the settings, you can configure the network credentials. Ensure to set a complex and strong password.
When you are facing issues with your Brother printer, you can reset it. To reset brother printer, you need to access the control panel of the printer. From the settings and then to the ‘Initial Setup’ you can access the reset feature. There are multiple types of reset functions available, you can choose any function.
ow can you ensure that the extender is connected to the right network and functioning correctly? In this paragraph, we will explore these questions and provide guidance on how to set up a new WiFi extender using www.mywifiext.net.
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First of all, reboot your Linksys WiFi extender to fix any technical hiccups if there are any that are stopping you from logging in. You simply need to turn off your extender and remove it from the wall socket. After about 5 minutes, turn on the power supply
If you observe your Shark robot vacuum not charging , make sure the base station is connected to the power supply. If the docking station is not supplied power, the robot vacuum won’t charge the battery.
If Netgear router firmware update failed for you using the Nighthawk router app, you can get Netgear firmware update with the help of web interface by accessing routerlogin.net. You can also contact our proficient experts to troubleshoot the problem of Netgear firmware update for you.
In this article, we are going to discuss the blink green light. The reason being some users face the blinking green light after completing the Netgear EX3700 setup.
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