Arlington Million Day Overlays & Underlays
With a great day of racing, including the
Arlington Million, on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, I really wanted to
dive into the card and handicap some races… that’s what I wanted to do.
Unfortunately, time and a desire to keep
what’s left of my sanity overruled this desire and I decided, instead, to
provide some free handicapping reports for the big day (see below), as well as
some thoughts on certain horses in selected races.
In a show of orderliness, I started with the
first race:
Arlington Park
Race 1
7 furlongs (main track)
Avg. ESR: -2 Avg. LSR: -15
Potential Underlay(s)
Although he ranks third in overall speed on
my Pace Profile Report, 1-MYSTIC has finished in the money (third or better)
exactly one time since being claimed by trainer Robert Dobbs on Aug. 15, 2013.
Worse, the seven-year-old gelding has visited the winner’s circle just once in
eight non-turf tries over the course of his career. At odds anywhere close to
his morning line (9/2), he looks like a money-burner.
Potential Overlay(s)
2-GHETTO CAT ranks first in overall speed on
my Pace Profile Report, makes his third start off of a layoff and has tactical
speed in a race with a sluggish average early speed ration (ESR) of -2. I think
he’s fairly priced at 7-2, yet he’s 8-1 on the morning line.
6-DE GREEN LIGHT is 5-1 on my Win Factor
(computerized fair odds) line. I think that’s too low, but I also think De
Green Light’s morning line odds of 20-1 are too high.
Arlington Park
Race 3
About 1 Mile (turf course)
Avg. ESR: +4 Avg. LSR: -3
Potential Overlay(s)
1/1A-WHATTHECATDRUGIN & COUGAR RIDGE make
an interesting entry. The former is 0-for-5 on the grass, yet has run well in
his last two turf tries at a mile or less (3rd in an allowance race
at seven furlongs at Mountaineer and 2nd in a starter handicap going
a mile at Indiana Downs). The latter comes off a winning effort in a race
similar to today’s at Indiana Downs, where he recorded a 95 Brisnet speed
figure (BSF) and a 0 late speed ration (LSR).
6-TAZZ is a veteran (eight years old)
campaigner with a favorable front-running style and loads of back class (he won
the 2011 Black Tie Affair Handicap and numerous other top-purse events in
Illinois).
Arlington Park
Race 4
About 1 Mile (turf course)
Avg. ESR: +5 Avg. LSR: 0
This race for two-year-old, Illinois-bred
maidens features several first-time starters and, coincidentally, I just did a
study on horses making their debuts in route races — with some amazing results…
DEBUT RACES AT ONE MILE OR GREATER
* Last three workouts < 15 total
furlongs
Number: 400
Winners: 26
Win Rate: 6.5%
IV: 0.60
OBIV: 0.70
* Last three workouts ≥ 15 total furlongs
Number: 143
Winners: 18
Win Rate: 12.6%
IV: 1.15
OBIV: 1.16
So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at the “firsters” in this race.
Last three workouts < 15 total
furlongs (possible underlays)
4-Always a Catch (8/1 morning line odds)
6-Broken In (8/1)
8-Tender May (20/1)
11-Ivanti (4/1)
Last three workouts ≥ 15 total
furlongs (possible overlays)
3-Kinsmanor (8/1)
5-Safe at Sea (6/1)
10-Stand Up Guy (6/1)
Arlington Park
Race 7
About 1 11/16 Miles (turf
course)
Avg. ESR: +7 Avg. LSR: +3
Potential Underlay(s)
Each of the last two times 2-DANDINO came to
the US, he ran great — finishing a close second to Joshua Tree in the Grade I
Canadian International at Woodbine in 2012 and winning this very race last
year.
However, as Bob Dylan noted, the times they are a-changin’.
Dandino is seven years old now and he’s coming off two of the worst
performances of his distinguished career. After finishing up the track at Ascot
on June 21, the son of Dansili was beaten 16 lengths in a Group 2 event at
Newmarket on July 10.
Will Dandino’s fortunes change in the Land of
Lincoln? Maybe. But, given that he’s likely to be one of the favorites, I’m not
betting on it.
Potential Overlay(s)
Former claimer 3-BIG KICK gets an advantageous
pace scenario (+7 avg. ESR) coming off the biggest win of his career in the
Grade II San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita.
6-HARDEST CORE (also entered in the Arlington
Million) is 7-1 on my Win Factor line, 20-1 on the morning line.
Arlington Park
Race 10
About 1 1/4 Miles (turf
course)
Avg. ESR: +6 Avg. LSR: 0
Potential Overlay(s)
It’s hard to knock 3-MAGICIAN in this spot,
as this year’s Million field is far from stellar. However, given the distinct
lack of early zip in the day’s feature, I think both 1-HARDEST CORE (also
entered in the 7th race) and 7-SIDE GLANCE have a puncher’s chance
of scoring the upset.
Arlington Park Handicapping Reports
Win Factor
Report (computerized fair odds)
Speed Ration Key
63 comments:
Good post.Thank you for providing this informative post.It help me to acquire new ideas.All the content provided here are good to read.The new innovations are always welcome.For more topics best essay writing service will help you.
Thanks for sharing.I found a lot of interesting information here. A really good post, very thankful and hopeful that you will write many more posts like this one.
https://gmaillogin.vip/
https://anydesk.vip/
https://luckypatcher.pro/apk/
https://www.xoxolondon.co/how-to-fix-audio-issues-in-windows-10-pcs.html
http://mypost.co/5-best-offline-gps-and-navigation-apps-for-android-2018.html
top torrent download 2018
I vote on the question or comment. I will also make comment if I feel my words contribute to the discussion and has not be completely duplicated by someone else's words. I am interested in all of the discussions, although I may not be able to post my opinions because my workplace and I have to wait until the end of the day to make my comment or provide an answer.
webnovel
every players can now get free vbucks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji6L6hRzdz0 no human verification required
Here is how you should write a SAT essay https://admission-writer.com/blog/sat-essay. Take a look at the free example.
I often get emotionally involved. Like when I read your post, I can cry, laugh, sad, funny, depending on your written words. I think you are a sensitive person.
happy wheels
If you want to make your life like heaven then first you should buy our affordable sex doll, because these doll are made by well rubber Which will give you fantastic happiness at sex time
Love is in the air but not for young men who work night and day to fulfill their dreams. However you can explore your love with the love dolls. Check the sex dolls for sale
I vote on the question or comment. I will also make comment if I feel my words contribute to the discussion and has not be completely duplicated by someone else's words like this https://grishnacatys.tumblr.com/. I am interested in all of the discussions, although I may not be able to post my opinions because my workplace and I have to wait until the end of the day to make my comment or provide an answer.
My doll provides best sex dolls https://my-doll.com/yournextgf-for-big-butt-sex/ in USA. To experience pleasure, to relieve stress Helps induce sleep and relaxation For men the best sex doll can help them increase ejaculatory control and blood flow to the pelvic region No risk of STD's or pregnancy.
My doll provides [url=https://my-doll.com/yournextgf-for-big-butt-sex/ ]the best sex dolls[/url] in the USA. To experience pleasure, to relieve stress Helps induce sleep and relaxation For men the best sex doll can help them increase ejaculatory control and blood flow to the pelvic region No risk of STD's or pregnancy.
Make your sex life like heaven with tpe realsitic sex doll. Our sex dolls are made by high quality tpe materials.
TPE sex doll is model-quality and every bit as gorgeous, if not more, as the hottest girl in town. One glance on her, will stop you in your tracks with her enchanting beauty! This life like sex doll will absolutely blow your mind.
I would like to thank you for your nicely written post
wuxiaworld
Very interesting blog. Which is really good. Thanks for sharing such a good article. Actually the Arlington Million is a Grade 1 flat horse race in the United States for thoroughbred horses aged three years and upward. Even am waiting for more updates....
see: https://garagebandforpcwindows.com
I am really thankful for your post, it gives me more knowledge. very nice!
maps driving directions
thanks for sharing
https://www.garagebandforwindows.info
Hello, I would like to thank you for sharing this interesting information. The material you have mentioned here will be useful for my best teacher i ever had essay sample task.
چاپ دیجیتال کارت ویزیت غالبا روی گلاسه، کتان آلمان، کتان اندونزی، کاغذ سوزنی، کاغذ صدفی و کاغذ کارتی صورت میگیرد.
انواع چاپ کارت ویزیت در خانه طراحان سام
Good post thanks for share article. Install IAP Cracker rtx 2070 vs gtx 1080
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thanks again! 토토사이트
As I website possessor I believe the content material here is rattling great , appreciate it for your hard work. You should keep it up forever! Best of luck. 바카라사이트
Very good blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring writers? I’m planning to start my own site soon but I’m a little lost on everything. 파워볼사이트
عکس پروفایل عکس پروفایل خاص
ابزار وبلاگ
Wow cuz this is great job! Congrats and keep it up.
먹튀검증
It's impressive. Your post seems to contain a very precise analysis of horse racing. I am also interested in horse racing through your writing. The concept of handicap in horse racing is quite attractive. I need to look around your blog and find out more about horse racing. Thank you for writing a great post. 카지노사이트
I am happy to be here and this wonderful blog. I have found here lots of important information for my knowledge I need. Thanks for sharing this amazing post. For instant support related Common Spectrum Email Problem please contact our team for instant help.
Took me time to read all the comments, 토토사이트 but I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained!
جزوه سیستم های خرید و انبارداری pdf,سیستم های خرید و انبارداری ppt
nice info thanks This is nice and awesome thanks for share us.Fantastic Blog…I will definitly share your blog with other http://www.codetools.ir/p/system-buy-inventory-distribution
I’ve been absent for a while, but now I remember why I used to love this website. Thanks, I will try and check back more often. How frequently you update your site? 오피
Great post! I am actually getting ready to across this information, is very helpful my friend. Also great blog here with all of the valuable information you have. Keep up the good work you are doing here. 온라인포커
I found the answer I was looking for in your article. I'm going to quote your article and write it on a blog. 바카라사이트
I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post.
UK writing services
Very good written article. It will be supportive to anyone who utilizes it, including me. Keep doing what you are doing – can’r wait to read more posts.General Contracting Services in Emmett ID
Thank you so much for sharing this great blog.Very inspiring and helpful too.Hope you continue to share more of your ideas.I will definitely love to read. Plain Vinyl Services Jonesboro GA
Thanks for sharing this information. I really like your blog post very much. You have really shared a informative and interesting blog post with people..
Kitchen Cleaning Centreville VA
Great article Lot's of information to Read...Great Man Keep Posting and update to People..Thanks
Carpentry Service Sterling VA
google 640
google 641
google 642
google 643
google 644
google 645
google 646
Wow, cool post. I’d like to write like this too – taking time and real hard work to make a great article… but I put things off too much and never seem to get started. Thanks though.
Tile Cleaning Baltimore County MD
کاغذ دیواری
کاغذ دیواری قیمت
کاغذ دیواری کودک
کاغذ دیواری پذبرایی
خرید کاغذ دیواری
تور جزیره هرمز
بهترین رستوران جزیره هرمز
هتل در جزیره هرمز
بورس
Selekasnya sebelum mengadopsi Tama, Kojima pesan topi masinis khusus untuk kucing kecilnya, dan di bulan Januari 2017, dia dengan cara resmi memberikan nama Tama 'Kepala Stasiun Kishi' — kucing kepala stasiun pertama di Jepang.
Kadang-kadang dia menegur beberapa penumpang di atas meja di dekat loket karcis atau dari balik jendela kaca ruangan 'kantor'nya — https://negeri-dongeng.com/ loket karcis yang disihir dan diperlengkapi baki kotoran dan sebuah tempat tidur.
토토사이트 Wonderful, what a blog it is! This weblog gives useful facts to us, keep it up.
토토사이트 I want to say that this article is amazing, nice written and come with almost all significant infos. I'd like to look more posts like this
카지노사이트 It's very simple to find out any topic on net as compared to books, as I found this post at this site.
Thanks for every other informative site. The place else may just I get that kind of information written in such an ideal means? I have a venture that I’m just now operating on, and I have been on the look out for such information. Painting Services McLean
Thank you for some other informative website. The place else may just I get that kind of information written in such a perfect method? I have a venture that I am simply now running on, and I’ve been at the glance out for such info.
Pre Listing Inspection Phoenix
Very helpful stuff right here. I love seeing fellow bloggers doing great online, as a sports fan visiting many sport suites and boxes I can tell this will help many people
Positive site, where did u come up with the information on this posting?I have read a few of the articles on your website now, and I really like your style. Thanks a million and please keep up the effective work. 메이저사이트
very helpful For coming in to comment great. แนะนำเพื่อนได้ค่าคอม
PAIRE CHAUSSETTES COTON
Taille: 43-46
Emballage: 240 paires par boîte
Prix: Euro 0.40 / paire Chaussettes
I Won The Car, and Lost My Mind - GTA Online 메이저공원 메이저놀이터 먹튀커뮤니티 DLC
When I read your article on this topic, the first thought seems profound and difficult. There is also a bulletin board for discussion of articles and photos similar to this topic on my site, but I would like to visit once when I have time to discuss this topic. 안전토토사이트
I'm extremely inspired along with your writing skills as neatly as with the format in your blog. 토토
keonhacai
oncainven
I read your article well It's been a great help I will visit you again to read your article. Thank you
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited is a state-owned telecommunications corporation in India. Its headquarters are in New Delhi, India. It is the largest fixed telephone and broadband network service provider. It is India's sixth-largest mobile telecommunications service. BSNL Recharge Easemydeal provides a simple way to recharge your BSNL number online. To recharge BSNL prepaid/postpaid online through a mobile phone, tablet, or computer, all that is required is an internet connection.
Thanks for sharing. I found a lot of interesting information here. A really good post, very thankful and hopeful that you will write many more posts like this one. .All the content provided here are good to read.
Divorce law in new jersey
appealing a protective order in virginia
trucking accident law firm
The text "Arlington Million Day Overlays & Underlays" is clear and informative, likely to resonate with horse racing enthusiasts. It should provide information about betting opportunities but should include a brief explanation or definition for readers unfamiliar with overlays and underlays. The intended audience should be specified, and specific examples or insights about overlays and underlays on Arlington Million Day could make the content more engaging and educational. Additionally, a call to action, such as tips for informed bets, could enhance the content's value. Overall, the title effectively communicates the topic, but further explanatory context, audience specification, examples, and calls to action could enhance its value.
Post a Comment