Arlington Million Day Overlays & Underlays
With a great day of racing, including the
Arlington Million, on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, I really wanted to
dive into the card and handicap some races… that’s what I wanted to do.
Unfortunately, time and a desire to keep
what’s left of my sanity overruled this desire and I decided, instead, to
provide some free handicapping reports for the big day (see below), as well as
some thoughts on certain horses in selected races.
In a show of orderliness, I started with the
first race:
Arlington Park
Race 1
7 furlongs (main track)
Avg. ESR: -2 Avg. LSR: -15
Potential Underlay(s)
Although he ranks third in overall speed on
my Pace Profile Report, 1-MYSTIC has finished in the money (third or better)
exactly one time since being claimed by trainer Robert Dobbs on Aug. 15, 2013.
Worse, the seven-year-old gelding has visited the winner’s circle just once in
eight non-turf tries over the course of his career. At odds anywhere close to
his morning line (9/2), he looks like a money-burner.
Potential Overlay(s)
2-GHETTO CAT ranks first in overall speed on
my Pace Profile Report, makes his third start off of a layoff and has tactical
speed in a race with a sluggish average early speed ration (ESR) of -2. I think
he’s fairly priced at 7-2, yet he’s 8-1 on the morning line.
6-DE GREEN LIGHT is 5-1 on my Win Factor
(computerized fair odds) line. I think that’s too low, but I also think De
Green Light’s morning line odds of 20-1 are too high.
Arlington Park
Race 3
About 1 Mile (turf course)
Avg. ESR: +4 Avg. LSR: -3
Potential Overlay(s)
1/1A-WHATTHECATDRUGIN & COUGAR RIDGE make
an interesting entry. The former is 0-for-5 on the grass, yet has run well in
his last two turf tries at a mile or less (3rd in an allowance race
at seven furlongs at Mountaineer and 2nd in a starter handicap going
a mile at Indiana Downs). The latter comes off a winning effort in a race
similar to today’s at Indiana Downs, where he recorded a 95 Brisnet speed
figure (BSF) and a 0 late speed ration (LSR).
6-TAZZ is a veteran (eight years old)
campaigner with a favorable front-running style and loads of back class (he won
the 2011 Black Tie Affair Handicap and numerous other top-purse events in
Illinois).
Arlington Park
Race 4
About 1 Mile (turf course)
Avg. ESR: +5 Avg. LSR: 0
This race for two-year-old, Illinois-bred
maidens features several first-time starters and, coincidentally, I just did a
study on horses making their debuts in route races — with some amazing results…
DEBUT RACES AT ONE MILE OR GREATER
* Last three workouts < 15 total
furlongs
Number: 400
Winners: 26
Win Rate: 6.5%
IV: 0.60
OBIV: 0.70
* Last three workouts ≥ 15 total furlongs
Number: 143
Winners: 18
Win Rate: 12.6%
IV: 1.15
OBIV: 1.16
So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at the “firsters” in this race.
Last three workouts < 15 total
furlongs (possible underlays)
4-Always a Catch (8/1 morning line odds)
6-Broken In (8/1)
8-Tender May (20/1)
11-Ivanti (4/1)
Last three workouts ≥ 15 total
furlongs (possible overlays)
3-Kinsmanor (8/1)
5-Safe at Sea (6/1)
10-Stand Up Guy (6/1)
Arlington Park
Race 7
About 1 11/16 Miles (turf
course)
Avg. ESR: +7 Avg. LSR: +3
Potential Underlay(s)
Each of the last two times 2-DANDINO came to
the US, he ran great — finishing a close second to Joshua Tree in the Grade I
Canadian International at Woodbine in 2012 and winning this very race last
year.
However, as Bob Dylan noted, the times they are a-changin’.
Dandino is seven years old now and he’s coming off two of the worst
performances of his distinguished career. After finishing up the track at Ascot
on June 21, the son of Dansili was beaten 16 lengths in a Group 2 event at
Newmarket on July 10.
Will Dandino’s fortunes change in the Land of
Lincoln? Maybe. But, given that he’s likely to be one of the favorites, I’m not
betting on it.
Potential Overlay(s)
Former claimer 3-BIG KICK gets an advantageous
pace scenario (+7 avg. ESR) coming off the biggest win of his career in the
Grade II San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita.
6-HARDEST CORE (also entered in the Arlington
Million) is 7-1 on my Win Factor line, 20-1 on the morning line.
Arlington Park
Race 10
About 1 1/4 Miles (turf
course)
Avg. ESR: +6 Avg. LSR: 0
Potential Overlay(s)
It’s hard to knock 3-MAGICIAN in this spot,
as this year’s Million field is far from stellar. However, given the distinct
lack of early zip in the day’s feature, I think both 1-HARDEST CORE (also
entered in the 7th race) and 7-SIDE GLANCE have a puncher’s chance
of scoring the upset.
Arlington Park Handicapping Reports
Win Factor
Report (computerized fair odds)
Speed Ration Key
76 comments:
Good post.Thank you for providing this informative post.It help me to acquire new ideas.All the content provided here are good to read.The new innovations are always welcome.For more topics best essay writing service will help you.
Thanks for sharing.I found a lot of interesting information here. A really good post, very thankful and hopeful that you will write many more posts like this one.
https://gmaillogin.vip/
https://anydesk.vip/
https://luckypatcher.pro/apk/
https://www.xoxolondon.co/how-to-fix-audio-issues-in-windows-10-pcs.html
http://mypost.co/5-best-offline-gps-and-navigation-apps-for-android-2018.html
top torrent download 2018
I vote on the question or comment. I will also make comment if I feel my words contribute to the discussion and has not be completely duplicated by someone else's words. I am interested in all of the discussions, although I may not be able to post my opinions because my workplace and I have to wait until the end of the day to make my comment or provide an answer.
webnovel
On the hills and far away. One million miles from L.A. We will find the beginning of something new. Take me anywhere, take me anywhere. Wherever you go with you. Just have you and the game: happy wheels basketball legends game
every players can now get free vbucks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji6L6hRzdz0 no human verification required
Here is how you should write a SAT essay https://admission-writer.com/blog/sat-essay. Take a look at the free example.
I often get emotionally involved. Like when I read your post, I can cry, laugh, sad, funny, depending on your written words. I think you are a sensitive person.
happy wheels
daftar sabung ayam
livechat bluebet33
cbet indonesia
daftar kiss918
osg88
osg777 live chat
Thanks for Sharing this:
love doll
sex doll
Buy Silicone sex doll
If you want to make your life like heaven then first you should buy our affordable sex doll, because these doll are made by well rubber Which will give you fantastic happiness at sex time
Love is in the air but not for young men who work night and day to fulfill their dreams. However you can explore your love with the love dolls. Check the sex dolls for sale
I vote on the question or comment. I will also make comment if I feel my words contribute to the discussion and has not be completely duplicated by someone else's words like this https://grishnacatys.tumblr.com/. I am interested in all of the discussions, although I may not be able to post my opinions because my workplace and I have to wait until the end of the day to make my comment or provide an answer.
My doll provides best sex dolls https://my-doll.com/yournextgf-for-big-butt-sex/ in USA. To experience pleasure, to relieve stress Helps induce sleep and relaxation For men the best sex doll can help them increase ejaculatory control and blood flow to the pelvic region No risk of STD's or pregnancy.
My doll provides [url=https://my-doll.com/yournextgf-for-big-butt-sex/ ]the best sex dolls[/url] in the USA. To experience pleasure, to relieve stress Helps induce sleep and relaxation For men the best sex doll can help them increase ejaculatory control and blood flow to the pelvic region No risk of STD's or pregnancy.
Make your sex life like heaven with tpe realsitic sex doll. Our sex dolls are made by high quality tpe materials.
TPE sex doll is model-quality and every bit as gorgeous, if not more, as the hottest girl in town. One glance on her, will stop you in your tracks with her enchanting beauty! This life like sex doll will absolutely blow your mind.
Thank you so much for sharing this excellent information. Your article is amazing. Good to discover your post. We are the Best Mobile App Development.
Good post i am pretty much pleased with your good post.You put really very helpful information
คาสิโนออนไลน์ที่น่าเชื่อถือและมีความเป็นมืออาชีพที่สุดในตอนนี้
โปรโมชั่นGclub ของทางทีมงานตอนนี้แจกฟรีโบนัส 50%
เพียงแค่คุณสมัคร สล็อตออนไลน์ กับทางทีมงานของเราเพียงเท่านั้น
ร่วมมาเป็นส่วนหนึ่งกับเว็บไซต์คาสิโนออนไลน์ของเราได้เลยค่ะ
สมัครสล็อตออนไลน์ >>> Goldenslot
สนใจร่วมสนุกกับ คาสิโนออนไลน์ คลิ๊กได้เลย
มีทั้งคาสิโนออนไลน์ หวยออนไลน์ ฟุตบอลออนไลน์ สล็อตออนไลน์ และอื่นๆอีกมากมาย
I would like to thank you for your nicely written post
wuxiaworld
Very interesting blog. Which is really good. Thanks for sharing such a good article. Actually the Arlington Million is a Grade 1 flat horse race in the United States for thoroughbred horses aged three years and upward. Even am waiting for more updates....
see: https://garagebandforpcwindows.com
Additionally, they will outline the qualities of Pay for Term Papers, and the advantages of hiring outstanding How to Write a Nursing Research Paper, as well as the qualities to consider when selecting this company for Legit Essay Writing Service.
I am really thankful for your post, it gives me more knowledge. very nice!
maps driving directions
thanks for sharing
https://www.garagebandforwindows.info
Hello, I would like to thank you for sharing this interesting information. The material you have mentioned here will be useful for my best teacher i ever had essay sample task.
چاپ دیجیتال کارت ویزیت غالبا روی گلاسه، کتان آلمان، کتان اندونزی، کاغذ سوزنی، کاغذ صدفی و کاغذ کارتی صورت میگیرد.
انواع چاپ کارت ویزیت در خانه طراحان سام
>دانلود آهنگ های شاد جدید تالار عروسی
دانلود تمام آهنگ های رضا بهرام
دانلود آهنگ جدید
Good post thanks for share article. Install IAP Cracker rtx 2070 vs gtx 1080
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thanks again! 토토사이트
As I website possessor I believe the content material here is rattling great , appreciate it for your hard work. You should keep it up forever! Best of luck. 바카라사이트
Very good blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring writers? I’m planning to start my own site soon but I’m a little lost on everything. 파워볼사이트
عکس پروفایل عکس پروفایل خاص
ابزار وبلاگ
Among other courses, business research writing services has become popular since students seek Business Coursework Writing Services and business essay writing services.
This is a great article and great read for me. It's my first visit to your blog
skycut
skycut plotter india
skycut plotters
skycut india
experts
Wow cuz this is great job! Congrats and keep it up.
먹튀검증
It's impressive. Your post seems to contain a very precise analysis of horse racing. I am also interested in horse racing through your writing. The concept of handicap in horse racing is quite attractive. I need to look around your blog and find out more about horse racing. Thank you for writing a great post. 카지노사이트
I am happy to be here and this wonderful blog. I have found here lots of important information for my knowledge I need. Thanks for sharing this amazing post. For instant support related Common Spectrum Email Problem please contact our team for instant help.
When did you start writing articles related to ? To write a post by reinterpreting the 안전놀이터 I used to know is amazing. I want to talk more closely about , can you give me a message?
Took me time to read all the comments, 토토사이트 but I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained!
جزوه سیستم های خرید و انبارداری pdf,سیستم های خرید و انبارداری ppt
nice info thanks This is nice and awesome thanks for share us.Fantastic Blog…I will definitly share your blog with other http://www.codetools.ir/p/system-buy-inventory-distribution
I’ve been absent for a while, but now I remember why I used to love this website. Thanks, I will try and check back more often. How frequently you update your site? 오피
Great post! I am actually getting ready to across this information, is very helpful my friend. Also great blog here with all of the valuable information you have. Keep up the good work you are doing here. 온라인포커
I will bookmark this site and come to it from time to time. Your writing has been of great help to me.먹튀검증사이트
Impressive, you can read about Nursing Writing Services too
Really no matter if someone doesn't be aware of after that its up to other users that they will help, so here it takes place 메이저놀이터.
I found the answer I was looking for in your article. I'm going to quote your article and write it on a blog. 바카라사이트
I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post.
UK writing services
Very good written article. It will be supportive to anyone who utilizes it, including me. Keep doing what you are doing – can’r wait to read more posts.General Contracting Services in Emmett ID
Thank you so much for sharing this great blog.Very inspiring and helpful too.Hope you continue to share more of your ideas.I will definitely love to read. Plain Vinyl Services Jonesboro GA
Thanks for sharing this information. I really like your blog post very much. You have really shared a informative and interesting blog post with people..
Kitchen Cleaning Centreville VA
Great article Lot's of information to Read...Great Man Keep Posting and update to People..Thanks
Carpentry Service Sterling VA
google 640
google 641
google 642
google 643
google 644
google 645
google 646
Wow, cool post. I’d like to write like this too – taking time and real hard work to make a great article… but I put things off too much and never seem to get started. Thanks though.
Tile Cleaning Baltimore County MD
Of course, your article is good enough, Tài xỉu but I thought it would be much better to see professional photos and videos together. There are articles and photos on these topics on my homepage, so please visit and share your opinions.
کاغذ دیواری
کاغذ دیواری قیمت
کاغذ دیواری کودک
کاغذ دیواری پذبرایی
خرید کاغذ دیواری
تور جزیره هرمز
بهترین رستوران جزیره هرمز
هتل در جزیره هرمز
بورس
First of all, thank you for your post. 메이저사이트 Your posts are neatly organized with the information I want, so there are plenty of resources to reference. I bookmark this site and will find your posts frequently in the future. Thanks again ^^
Selekasnya sebelum mengadopsi Tama, Kojima pesan topi masinis khusus untuk kucing kecilnya, dan di bulan Januari 2017, dia dengan cara resmi memberikan nama Tama 'Kepala Stasiun Kishi' — kucing kepala stasiun pertama di Jepang.
Kadang-kadang dia menegur beberapa penumpang di atas meja di dekat loket karcis atau dari balik jendela kaca ruangan 'kantor'nya — https://negeri-dongeng.com/ loket karcis yang disihir dan diperlengkapi baki kotoran dan sebuah tempat tidur.
لوازم جانبی
لوازم جانبی موبایل
Greetings! Very helpful advice in this particular article! It’s the little changes which will make the largest changes. Thanks for sharing 안전놀이터
As I am looking at your writing, 먹튀검증사이트 I regret being unable to do outdoor activities due to Corona 19, and I miss my old daily life. If you also miss the daily life of those days, would you please visit my site once? My site is a site where I post about photos and daily life when I was free.
Looking at this article, I miss the time when I didn't wear a mask. 먹튀검증업체 Hopefully this corona will end soon. My blog is a blog that mainly posts pictures of daily life before Corona and landscapes at that time. If you want to remember that time again, please visit us.
Hello, I'm happy to see some great articles on your site. Would you like to come to my site later? My site also has posts, comments and communities similar to yours. Please visit and take a look 토토사이트
Of course, your article is good enough, but I thought it would be much better to see professional photos and videos together. There are articles and photos on these topics on my homepage, so please visit and share your opinions. keonhacai
Excellent read, I just passed this onto a friend who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch as I found it for him smile Therefore let me rephrase that: Thank you for lunch. 먹튀신고
We are committed to providing our clients with exceptional solutions while offering web design and development services, graphic design services, organic SEO services, social media services, digital marketing services, server management services and Graphic Design Company in USA.
토토사이트 Wonderful, what a blog it is! This weblog gives useful facts to us, keep it up.
토토사이트 I want to say that this article is amazing, nice written and come with almost all significant infos. I'd like to look more posts like this
카지노사이트 It's very simple to find out any topic on net as compared to books, as I found this post at this site.
카지노사이트 What’s up Dear, are you genuinely visiting this web page
daily, if so then you will definitely take good knowledge.
Thanks for every other informative site. The place else may just I get that kind of information written in such an ideal means? I have a venture that I’m just now operating on, and I have been on the look out for such information. Painting Services McLean
Thank you for some other informative website. The place else may just I get that kind of information written in such a perfect method? I have a venture that I am simply now running on, and I’ve been at the glance out for such info.
Pre Listing Inspection Phoenix
Very helpful stuff right here. I love seeing fellow bloggers doing great online, as a sports fan visiting many sport suites and boxes I can tell this will help many people
Positive site, where did u come up with the information on this posting?I have read a few of the articles on your website now, and I really like your style. Thanks a million and please keep up the effective work. 메이저사이트
Post a Comment