Showing posts with label overlays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label overlays. Show all posts

  • Arlington Million Day Overlays & Underlays

    POSTED Aug 15, 2014 By Derek Simon

    With a great day of racing, including the Arlington Million, on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, I really wanted to dive into the card and handicap some races… that’s what I wanted to do.

    Unfortunately, time and a desire to keep what’s left of my sanity overruled this desire and I decided, instead, to provide some free handicapping reports for the big day (see below), as well as some thoughts on certain horses in selected races.

    In a show of orderliness, I started with the first race:

    Arlington Park
    Race 1
    7 furlongs (main track)
    Avg. ESR: -2 Avg. LSR: -15

    Potential Underlay(s)

    Although he ranks third in overall speed on my Pace Profile Report, 1-MYSTIC has finished in the money (third or better) exactly one time since being claimed by trainer Robert Dobbs on Aug. 15, 2013. Worse, the seven-year-old gelding has visited the winner’s circle just once in eight non-turf tries over the course of his career. At odds anywhere close to his morning line (9/2), he looks like a money-burner.

    Potential Overlay(s)

    2-GHETTO CAT ranks first in overall speed on my Pace Profile Report, makes his third start off of a layoff and has tactical speed in a race with a sluggish average early speed ration (ESR) of -2. I think he’s fairly priced at 7-2, yet he’s 8-1 on the morning line.

    6-DE GREEN LIGHT is 5-1 on my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line. I think that’s too low, but I also think De Green Light’s morning line odds of 20-1 are too high.

    Arlington Park
    Race 3
    About 1 Mile (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +4 Avg. LSR: -3

    Potential Overlay(s)

    1/1A-WHATTHECATDRUGIN & COUGAR RIDGE make an interesting entry. The former is 0-for-5 on the grass, yet has run well in his last two turf tries at a mile or less (3rd in an allowance race at seven furlongs at Mountaineer and 2nd in a starter handicap going a mile at Indiana Downs). The latter comes off a winning effort in a race similar to today’s at Indiana Downs, where he recorded a 95 Brisnet speed figure (BSF) and a 0 late speed ration (LSR).

    6-TAZZ is a veteran (eight years old) campaigner with a favorable front-running style and loads of back class (he won the 2011 Black Tie Affair Handicap and numerous other top-purse events in Illinois).

    Arlington Park
    Race 4
    About 1 Mile (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +5 Avg. LSR: 0

    This race for two-year-old, Illinois-bred maidens features several first-time starters and, coincidentally, I just did a study on horses making their debuts in route races — with some amazing results…

    DEBUT RACES AT ONE MILE OR GREATER

    * Last three workouts < 15 total furlongs

    Number: 400
    Winners: 26
    Win Rate: 6.5%
    IV: 0.60
    OBIV: 0.70

    * Last three workouts ≥ 15 total furlongs

    Number: 143
    Winners: 18
    Win Rate: 12.6%
    IV: 1.15
    OBIV: 1.16





    So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at the “firsters” in this race.

    Last three workouts < 15 total furlongs (possible underlays)

    4-Always a Catch (8/1 morning line odds)
    6-Broken In (8/1)
    8-Tender May (20/1)
    11-Ivanti (4/1)

    Last three workouts ≥ 15 total furlongs (possible overlays)

    3-Kinsmanor (8/1)
    5-Safe at Sea (6/1)
    10-Stand Up Guy (6/1)

    Arlington Park
    Race 7
    About 1 11/16 Miles (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +7 Avg. LSR: +3

    Potential Underlay(s)

    Each of the last two times 2-DANDINO came to the US, he ran great — finishing a close second to Joshua Tree in the Grade I Canadian International at Woodbine in 2012 and winning this very race last year.

    However, as Bob Dylan noted, the times they are a-changin’. Dandino is seven years old now and he’s coming off two of the worst performances of his distinguished career. After finishing up the track at Ascot on June 21, the son of Dansili was beaten 16 lengths in a Group 2 event at Newmarket on July 10.

    Will Dandino’s fortunes change in the Land of Lincoln? Maybe. But, given that he’s likely to be one of the favorites, I’m not betting on it.

    Potential Overlay(s)

    Former claimer 3-BIG KICK gets an advantageous pace scenario (+7 avg. ESR) coming off the biggest win of his career in the Grade II San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita.

    6-HARDEST CORE (also entered in the Arlington Million) is 7-1 on my Win Factor line, 20-1 on the morning line.

    Arlington Park
    Race 10
    About 1 1/4 Miles (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +6 Avg. LSR: 0

    Potential Overlay(s)

    It’s hard to knock 3-MAGICIAN in this spot, as this year’s Million field is far from stellar. However, given the distinct lack of early zip in the day’s feature, I think both 1-HARDEST CORE (also entered in the 7th race) and 7-SIDE GLANCE have a puncher’s chance of scoring the upset.

    Arlington Park Handicapping Reports

    Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds)
    Pace Profile Report

     Speed Ration Key


  • Resolute Resolutions

    POSTED Jan 5, 2014 By Derek Simon

    I know it’s clichéd, but what is New Year’s without resolutions? Why, it’s like Batman without Robin, Yogi Bear without Boo Boo, the Kardashians without silicone. Hence, it is without shame or remorse that I present my 2014 New Year’s resolutions (appropriate for all horseplayers):

    1)   I promise not to throw all of my money into exotic wagers and thereby receive nothing when a longshot I like wins and I don’t have the horses underneath.

    2)  I will only wager on OVERLAYS. (Some of you may want to take a printout of this one and tape it to your computer screens… or foreheads, whichever gets the point across. I went the forehead route.)

    3)  I will be ever vigilant in my hunt for value, making sure that I check each wagering pool for inefficiencies that I can exploit.

    4)  In 2014, I will only wager when there is a compelling reason to do so (see point #2)… ah, who am I kidding? That’s like asking Miley Cyrus not to stick out her tongue. OK, let’s try it this way: I will only wager significant amounts when there is a compelling reason to do so.

    5)  I will strive to keep my emotions in check during the upcoming year, understanding that a bad day at the windows is as much a part of the game as a good day. Should I ever forget this fundamental fact and begin to wager irrationally in a vain attempt to “get even,” I will jab myself in the eye with my foam “twerking” finger until I get the message.

    6)   I will quit complaining about the sport. This one is for everybody. Frankly, I’m sick and tired of hearing about what is wrong with racing. I learned early on that if you look for something hard enough — good or bad — chances are you will find it (gold, the Fountain of Youth or a moment of serenity on the “Maury Show” excluded).

    7)   I will take at least one “newbie” to the track or OTB parlor this year. I will regret it later when they hit a huge exacta keying “the gray horse with the funny name” to the horse whose “jockey won the last race.”

    8)   I will treat my wagering capital like it is real — not Monopoly money that I can throw around on a whim because “I’m due for a big hit.”

    9)   I will have a wagering PLAN. I will bet a set amount of my capital on qualified plays and will not vary my plan based on a race or series of races.

    10) I will not be sucked into silly Facebook arguments about Peyton Manning’s playoff record. I know, this is off topic, but I need to put it out there before the Broncos lose 84-77 and someone says, “Manning choked.”

  • Betting Advice to Make You Money

    POSTED Nov 29, 2012 By Derek Simon
    As many of my followers know (and by “followers” I mean those that regularly read my columns and/or listen to my podcast — don’t want folks to think I’m building a compound), I have been on a quest to prove that one can make decent money at the racetrack ($20K or more) on a small stake ($500 or less) — without relying on rebates — for some time now.
     
    Recently, after a period of reasonable success but infuriating losing streaks, I decided to shelve my more speculative and less consistent angles/methods in favor of higher-percentage techniques. I wrote about this approach in “Thinking Small.”

    After the Breeders’ Cup, I began concentrating on two things:

    1) Win bets on overlays (horses with Win Factor Report fair odds less than their actual odds).

    2) Exacta bets keying my top Win Factor contender with the next three Report contenders (in specific races at specific prices).

    So far, this has worked like a charm. I’ve been more consistent for a longer period of time than at any point in my handicapping life, save when I used to spend hours analyzing races manually (prior to the advent of simulcast wagering and the development of my computerized programs).

    Since Nov. 7, when I this experiment began, until yesterday (Nov. 28), I have accumulated a 26 percent overall ROI, with a 30 percent ROI on win bets and a five percent ROI on exacta bets. During this time, my bankroll has nearly doubled and I have even played a smattering of standardbred events with equal success.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    (Click on image to enlarge) 

    Of course, while I’m encouraged by the early returns, there’s still a lot of time and challenges ahead of me. However, if — excuse me, when — I succeed, I want to write about the experience (I’m documenting everything I do) to help other players, because I think the psychology behind successful investing/gambling is nearly as important as one’s handicapping acumen.

    It will probably come as no great shock to anyone that I have made far fewer bad bets or silly mistakes this time ‘round (in the past, I’ve shown a talent for betting the wrong numbers or getting shut out). Keeping my bets simple is clearly part of the reason for this — and it is why I believe that players need to understand their own psyches to succeed as gamblers.
    In many ways, I’m a stereotype of my German ancestry when it comes to wagering — I need structure, consistency and discipline to succeed. When any of those three elements is missing, I struggle and can, seemingly without effort (another talent), turn a good handicapping effort into a financial disaster.

    So, before you attack the windows today (preferably, not literally), ask yourself: What is it that I’m good at? What is it that I’m poor at? And, most importantly, what is/are the trigger(s) that lead to poor money management when I’m betting on the races?

    Answer those questions and you might just make some money — or at least not lose as much.

    The Perfect Negative Show Pool Bet

    I’ve often opined that the best bet in racing is a show bet on a horse other than the favorite in races featuring a negative show pool — particularly at tracks that use net pool pricing.
     
    Now, I like these bets in almost all instances; however, the very best betting situations occur when the race favorite is weak or vulnerable. And, generally speaking, the most vulnerable favorites are confirmed frontrunners… like the one that I spotted on Nov. 26:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    That day, in the fifth race at Parx Racing, D’Tiger controlled $22,543 of the $26,523 (85 percent) bet to show. Yet the New York import had a fatal weakness: not only had he not won from off the pace, but he had also been recording some pretty mediocre early speed rations (my own measurement of early energy disbursement).

    Given the presence of Notre Grande in the field, I thought there was a pretty good chance that D’Tiger would have to rally from off the pace or, at the very least, go a lot faster early — and I sure as heck didn’t think he was 2/5 (his post-time odds) to do that successfully.
     
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Moreover, I felt that if Norte Grande produced an ESR of -10 or less ("brisk" to "demanding" on my scale) — something he had done in three of his eight prior races — D’Tiger might lose heart altogether and finish out of the money.

    As  it turned out, I was right and lucky. Norte Grande did, in fact, post a sub-minus-10 ESR and D’Tiger made his plight worse by stumbling at the start.
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    I collected $20.20 to show on Norte Grande and another $9.20 to show on Grande Prelude, who I thought was a safe show bet whether D’Tiger ran his race or not.

    These situations occur a lot more often than one might think, so it pays to keep one’s eyes peeled. Again, I think it is the best bet in racing. One can still cash in instances where the big favorite finishes in the money, and when the big favorite runs up the track… well, you get show payoffs like the ones above.