Showing posts with label #BC11. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #BC11. Show all posts

  • is the Daily Double a bad bet?
    & other Breeders' Cup-inspired multiple-race wagering angles

    POSTED Nov 10, 2011 By Unknown
    As with most topics when discussing racing, the answer to the above question is, "It depends."

    Four of the 13 daily doubles from this year's Breeders' Cup World Championships paid less than the win parlay coupling the two winners. Only one of 11 pick 3s paid less than the corresponding win parlay, and none of the three pick 4s did so.

    Overall since 2006, the average Daily Double payoff has been just 17.53% more than the win parlay while the pick 3 has offered an average 37.4% premium, and the pick 4 a most robust 60.57% bonus while never paying less than the parlay.

    The chart below lists the winners of each Breeders' Cup race since 2006 and the multiple-race wagering payouts for those races. My biggest takeaway from these results is the power of a single--even a favorite. If you approach a sequence as looking value rather than necessarily looking for a big score then a key horse becomes paramount.

    Look at the first all-Breeders' Cup pick three on Friday. 2-to-5 favorite Secret Circle kicked off a pick 3 that returned $540.80 for $2. A win parlay using 6.1-to-1 Stephanie's Kitten and 20.2-to-1 Musical Romance came back $421.46, but what's even more fascinating to me is you could have bought that $1 pick 3 for $168 and gotten back $270.40 while $168 to win on Secret Circle would have returned only $235.20. A Secret Circle-ALL-ALL pick three paid more than just betting Secret Circle to win.

    It doesn't always work out that way, of course. An ALL-ALL-Court Vision $1 pick 3 paid less than $117 to win on the 64.8-to-1 bomb, but the takeaway there is that Court Vision was probably more overlooked in the win pool than he was in other wagers.

    The Pick 3s and pick 4s are especially potent with favorites, though. For $121 you could have played a $1 pick four using ALL with My Miss Aurelia with ALL with Royal Delta. A $121 win parlay on My Miss Aurelia to Royal Delta would have paid $1,200.32. The $1 pick four paid $11,714.40.

    Obviously all this is easier said than done. I'd have been feeling pretty smart about myself had Union Rags won, and I was alive to five horses in the Classic after using "ALL" in the Mile. Of course, Union Rags didn't win, and even if he had, I didn't have Drosselmeyer as one of my Classic horses.

    But dwelling on that is being results-oriented. The macro approach for big race days is that the tougher the bet the better the value. From a psychological perspective, the pull of the daily double is strong. You only need to get two races right, and you can turn that $6 winner into $50, but the premium is definitely on getting four races right and turning $6 into $5,000 or more. I.e., you're better off playing a $1 pick 4 going 1x5x5x5 than a $25 double going 1x5. Even if you're only even money to advance through each leg, the pick 4 is more likely to pay 15-to-1 on your total investment than the double is to pay 3-to-1.

  • Breeders' Cup bonanza

    POSTED Nov 4, 2011 By Unknown
    All you need to know about why the Breeders' Cup is a great event not only for the horses and their connections but also the bettors can be found in the results of the first five races on Championship Friday when horses paid $5, $7, $7.80, $13.20, and $2.80 to produce a $3,258.40 pick five, which is more than five times the parlay!

    On these big days I think too many people over think how to string together their projected winners. The payoff on the pick five was such an overlay that clearly other payouts were underlays. That means people who were trying to take a shot against Secret Circle (or any of the other horses) most likely did not receive value for that opinion (in this case they obviously didn't because they lost, but it's important not to be results orientated when talking general handicapping topics).

    It can be unfashionable to pick favorites, but it's on big race days that the most logical horses offer value, so don't be afraid to take a stand, but the key there is to take a stand. Either you think a horse like Secret Circle is going to win or you don't. After him, the rest of the field was evenly matched. Adding horses doubles, triples, etc. the cost of the ticket and takes value away from your core opinion.

    For views on the Breeders' Cup races from top Brisnet.com handicappers (including me!), visit the Breeders' Cup Special Reports page on the handicapping tab of TwinSpires.com!
    note: Not all products are a part of the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package. Standard retail charges apply to products that are not a part of the package.

  • Players' Pool preparation
    Step 1, pre-entries

    POSTED Oct 26, 2011 By Unknown
    Pre-entries for the 2011 Breeders' Cup World Championships are finally available, and with their release comes earnest planning of how to wager on the blockbuster cards November 4-5 at Churchill Downs.

    The preface to step 1 is staying up to date on all the divisions throughout the year by watching races, reading Handicapper's Edge, etc. Doing that without overdoing it is a topic for another day, but the macro view is I try not to get too invested in a particular horse or race before the pre-entries come out because things are so fluid, but nor do I want to be completely surprised by a name or figure in the PPs either.

    Pre-entry PPs help put things in focus. I won't get to the point where I'm proposing to any horses, but I'm definitely figuring out who I like--as in like like--and hopefully some those quality relationships will grow over the next week and a half to form the base of my wagering for Breeders' Cup. Of course, sometimes you get to know a horse and realize, I'm just not that into you.

    As captain of the TwinSpires.com Players' Pool, I'm responsible for wagering $100,000 on the races. The challenge at that price point becomes not picking winners--we have the capital to use most horses in most races (a 5x5x5x5x5x5 pick six costs $31,500)--but to structure the bets to optimize the syndicate's chances of winning money. Spending $50,000 on the Ultra Pick Six on Saturday and cashing for half that amount is not exciting. The pre-entry period is great for parsing each race and figuring out where to zig when others might zag or when to single when others might spread (or vice versa).

    Using last year as an example, using Dakota Phone was unquestionably the key to a pick six that paid $800,000. Having a strong opinion on Uncle Mo and Goldikova turned the rest of the sequence into a $2 pick four. I realize that's easy to say in hindsight, but to me, the best opinion to have last year isn't necessary "Dakota Phone will win" but "Uncle Mo and Goldikova will win and the other races are more open."

    I'm not sure who the Uncle Mo or Goldikova is this year if there even is one, let alone two, but having $100,000 means you don't necessarily need a single. To me, being able to use three horses with 90% confidence of getting through a race is far more powerful than a single who's 50% to win. That single is obviously a great win bet at 3-to-2 and certainly offers value exotic wagers, too, but you're still a coin flip away from elimination.

    And that's what this period is all about. I want to identify the races that are worth having the strongest opinion on and build my tickets around those opinions.

  • Players' Pool excitement

    POSTED Oct 25, 2011 By Unknown
    One of the items on my job description I was most excited about when I signed on as director of marketing at Bloodstock Research Information Services was the role of captain of the TwinSpires.com Players' Pool.

    I'm a big believer in syndicate betting for two reasons: A) I think it gives all involved a better chance at hitting a big number that still includes logical horses, and B) it's a great way to introduce bettors to the super exotic wagers that produce some of racing's biggest payoffs.

    Both points speak to the original mission of the bet when brisnet.com launched account wagering's first-ever Player's Pool for the 2004 Breeders Cup. The splash was immediate when the syndicate returned better than 9-to-2 to its investors by scoring five consolation pick six tickets worth $56,149 each for a total return of $280,748 on a $44,280 investment (it missed Wilko).

    My predecessor at BRIS, Rich Nilsen, was an inaugural panelist and went on to captain several successful pools for TwinSpires. Although I have no experience betting $100,000 in a single weekend, I have pushed through my share of big wagers on behalf of other people through the years as captain of my own Big Event Syndicate that showed a 6.12% profit across12 events dating back to the 2007 Kentucky Derby.


    The goal is not to grind a profit year to year, but to have the big score.

    Obviously I'm proud of a long-term profit in this game, but year to year being close to a big score but zeroing out always seemed more fun than breaking even. I get that something is better than nothing, but I don't think anyone puts $10 into a wagering syndicate really hoping for $12 back. Being alive for a chance at a 4-to-1 score versus being alive to break even is worth the $10 to go for gusto even if you roll craps now and again.

    And so it will go with this year's Player's Pool. Or put another way, if Breeders' Cup day chalks out, then we're going to lose. We definitely want to leverage our capital to catch the logical contenders who pay $20 to win and even some of the fringe contenders who pay much more than that (Midday was Players' Pool handicapper Jude Feld's best bet last year).

    Those interested for my thought process behind how we structured $100,000 worth of tickets can check out the multiple race wagering analysis available via brisnet beginning Thursday, November 3. That file itself is $5 but is included for those who subscribed to the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package.

  • Breeders' Cup needs more Super Bass

    POSTED Oct 7, 2011 By Unknown
    Unfortunately, racing isn't popular enough to warrant inclusion in the lexicon of pop music, but thanks to the gift of parody we can try to make the Sport of Kings a bit more relevant.

    I took a gentle ribbing on Twitter when I mentioned that I actually like the song "Super Bass" by Nicki Minaj. It's a catchy little ditty that really came into focus for me after the Beldame when I realized that with that right cadence "Havre de Grace" can fit into the rhythm of "Super Bass". Ideally, I'd be rapping this at Keeneland while the likely champion older female prepares for the Breeders' Cup Classic, but I can't rap and don't know anyone who can, so I'd rather share the lyrics now in the hopes that some industrious rap artist will improve the lyrics a bit, drop a beat on it, and get this thing to go viral.

    Anyway, for those unfamiliar with the song, here is the video (some possibly NSFW themes and dance moves). It definitely helps to have a feel for the song for the rap to more easily read the HdG rap below.




    This one is for the boys at the Breeders’ Cup
    Lots of chatter about what matters leading up
    When I come up in the stall you better toughin up
    Run you into the ground and you’ll be easing up

    And he’s fast, can last, might give a thrill
    Pop the latch on the gate and get me in a duel
    He’ll go, try to roll, but end up a little short
    Always in the mix but never going to finish
    When I make’em down shift jockey hit’em with a stick stick
    Don’t even need a perfect trip to win it in the last click
    That’s the kind of race you should look for
    And yes you’ll lose money if you don’t know
    I think we can agree this is a heck of a field
    I mean, I look all around and they’re all I would own
    I mean, I’ve got Porter and Repole has Mo
    But a bowtie is preferred to vitamin H2O
    Yes I will yes I will everybody will know who the F I is
    I’m Havre de Grace and back the dudes up, back my figs up, bet against me and rip your deuce up

    And now my hoof beat’s running away
    Beating like a drum and it’s coming your way
    Can’t you hear them hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs, ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace
    Hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace (Havre de Grace) 

    This one of the boys in the Woodward
    Wannabe winners with high hopes
    They could ball with their crew but had no hope
    But I think I like it better than facing the girls
    And I think I’m long gone with the afterburners on
    My jockey ain’t even got to put the stick on
    He just give me that chirp, when he give me that cue
    Then the race is gone off
    You’ll lose to me if you stick to my thigh, race in hand, jockey ride high
    Scream, watch me go by, rest of the field staring at my backside
    Yes I will yes I will everybody will know who the F I is
    I’m Havre de Grace and back the dudes up, back my figs up, bet against me and rip your deuce up

    And now my hoof beat’s running away
    Beating like a drum and it’s coming your way
    Can’t you hear them hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs, ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace
    Hoofs, ba-boom, hoofs ba-boom
    That’s Havre de Grace (Havre de Grace)