Showing posts with label Cheltenham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cheltenham. Show all posts

  • Using Past Odds to Predict Present Results

    POSTED Mar 15, 2013 By Derek Simon

    I have often made the point that when it comes to predicting the outcome of a horse race, the betting public is among the very best. Sure, one can find individuals that outperform the pari-mutuel pools just as one can find Wall Street investors that regularly beat the market averages, but anybody who thinks that the crowd’s opinion is unimportant is likely to be scraping for bus fare after the last race.

    That said, how many bettors use the odds to their full advantage? While even the most unsophisticated punter can look at the tote board and get an idea as to the main contention in today’s race, how many players use the odds from past races as a guide to a horse’s current speed, form and class?

    Trust me, this is no trivial consideration.

    As proof, look at how recent betting favorites in the Kentucky Derby, unquestionably the biggest race for three-year-olds in America, performed in their next three starts:

    (Click on image to enlarge)


    Granted, a 3.4 percent return on investment (ROI) is not likely to get one invited to yacht parties with the rich and famous, but it’s not bad considering that the only criterion was that the horse be favored in Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

    What’s more, this kind of analysis can be extended to other types of races and is especially helpful in events and at venues where information is scarce.

    Take, for example, races from across the pond.

    In the 16.40 at Cheltenham Racecourse on Tuesday, March 12 (Champion Day of the famed Cheltenham Festival), 19 runners faced the starter for the Grade 2 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle over two miles and four furlongs.

     Generally, a race such as this would be a tough nut for an American bloke like me to crack. However, look at how nicely the contenders come to the fore when we rank the purse values they competed for last time (a crude measurement of class), as well as the odds they offered in those contests:

    (Click on image to enlarge)


    From the chart above, it’s readily apparent that Quevega is the dominant horse in the field — an assessment made even more obvious by her odds on March 12 (she was the 8-11 favorite). Although she’d been on the sidelines for nearly a year, a quick look at the past performances revealed that the vacation would not be a problem, as the nine-year-old mare hadn’t lost since May 24, 2009 and, in fact, had triumphed numerous times off of similar layoffs in the past.

    It is equally apparent that Sirene D’ainay looks like a prime upset candidate. She was 5-2 in a race featuring a $106,000 purse last time — and she won that affair by six lengths.

    Quevega and Sirene D’ainay ran 1-2 in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle. The $2 exacta returned $59.60.

    Now, don’t get me wrong: I’m not advocating that one water down handicapping to a simple comparison of purse values (i.e. class) and odds, but I do think that such comparisons can help bettors get a better handle on the true contention in a race, particularly when other techniques are unavailable.

    FREE Weekend Win Factor Reports

    Aqueduct
    Golden Gate Fields
    Oaklawn Park

  • FESTIVAL SIGN OFF

    POSTED Mar 18, 2011 By Peter Thomas Fornatale

  • Not far away now. . .

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale

  • MOUSE AND ME

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale
    While the Grand National may be more popular for betting, in sporting terms, the Gold Cup is the biggest race in England. In fact, you can make a good case that the Gold Cup is the greatest race in the world. My fourth appearance at the Cheltenham Festival came in 2006 and the Gold Cup was run on St. Patrick's Day. The winner was the Irish-trained WAR OF ATTRITION. I took a little money out of the race and afterwards, the party was on.

    Speaking of parties, the Tuesday night scene at the Plough was happening. It's an amazingly small place, with low ceilings, a couple of nooks, two french-door type drink stations instead of a traditional bar, and a large beer garden out back. There were people everywhere, all of them racing fans, many over from Ireland. The plan was to have a pint (or two) of real ale there, then to move on to somwhere for dinner. But there was a wrench in the works: no taxis for hours and the one restaurant in walking distance was fully booked.

    Enter a nice, very familiar looking Irish guy behind me in line waiting to get a drink. He offered me use of his personal driver and then refused to allow me to pay for the round. As I waited for the car, his identity started to dawn on me. He told me he'd ridden in America for Miles Valentine, and had broken his leg at Camden. I still couldn't quite connect the dots. The car arrived, I got in, and Frank the Driver solved the mystery for me. My benefactor was none other than Mouse Morris, trainer of War of Attrition.

    On to today's tips. As I mentioned before, the card looks a little tricky but I have a couple of bets I'll put on this morning and then I'll adjust and come up with a few more things via twitter (@loomsboldly) based on paddock ideas, the ground etc.

    In Race 3, the Albert Novices' Hurdle (run at 3 miles), I like the looks of #3 BOB'S WORTH. He is undefeated over hurdles, loves it around Cheltenham, and the form of his last is looking good with Rock On Ruby running a strong second to Mouse Morris' First Lieutenant in the shorter Novice Hurdle Grade 1 on Wednesday.

    In the big one, Race 4, the Gold Cup (a 3 mile, 2.5 furlong steeplechase), my main bet will be on #5 IMPERIAL COMMANDER. He won this race last year, goes really well fresh, and is a bona fide member of the Cheltenham horse-for-course club (have you figured out yet that that's a big deal to me?). Denman and Kauto Star (both past Gold Cup winners) are incredibly cool horses and I'll be thrilled to cheer them on if they're in with shots, but I feel like they'll both be short enough relative to their chances.

    If you're looking for a longshot flyer in the Gold Cup, take a long look at #3 CHINA ROCK. He could still be improving, should like the ground, will be an big price. Did I mention he was trained by Mouse Morris?

  • GOLD CUP DAY

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale
    What an amazing pleasure it was to be there live to watch BIG BUCK'S charge up the hill to win his third World Hurdle yesterday. There were a couple of moments where it looked liked GRAND CRUS would get him, but he just kept finding more in a supremely brave and classy performance. For me, that was the sporting highlight of the week. BIG BUCK'S is truly an all-time great.

    It was also amazingly cool to see JUNIOR, who I'd seen win a flat race at Royal Ascot, win a jump race at Cheltenham. Next stop for him: The Grand National at Aintree. Perhaps the connections should pay to send me to Aintree. I am his good luck charm, after all.

    But before I start planning my trip to Liverpool, there is still one day left of the Festival. And it's not just any day, it's Gold Cup Day. I have two Gold Cup stories to tell. I'll tell one via video (you have to watch this twice. Once for my story, once for the dude heckling me):

    I'll be back in a bit with the other Gold Cup related story and also with some thoughts on today's tricky card.

  • Warm Up

    POSTED Mar 17, 2011 By Peter Thomas Fornatale

  • Riders Up

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale

  • A Queue at the Bookies

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale

  • IRELAND 6 ENGLAND 1

    POSTED Mar 16, 2011 By Peter Thomas Fornatale
    A few years ago, I saw a chalkboard sign outside a pub in Cheltenham:

    SPORT ON TV

    Rugby

    Scotland vs France

    Football

    Arsenal vs AC Milan

    Horse Racing

    England vs Ireland


    The England vs Ireland of course was referring to the Cheltenham festival. I've heard it estimated that at least 15,000 Irish people show up for the Festival each year and I believe it -- check out the scene in Guinness Village if you don't believe me. One of the many special things about this meet is that while for most of the year, Irish horses stay in Ireland and English horses stay in England, here they come together and compete against each other. There are still many more English horses than Irish ones, but often the race favorites come from across the way and that fosters a real sense of competition. And while betting winners takes precedence over everything here but the pureness of the sport itself, there is definitely a bit of nationalistic pride, especially on the Irish side, when one of their team gets unsaddled in the winner's enclosure.


    Let me tell you: there was plenty of that pride on course today, when Irish based runners took the first six races of the day. The easy line was that St. Patrick's Day came a day early. But it was really more than that -- because St. Patrick's Day comes once a year. Irish horses winning a remarkable six pack in a row at Cheltenham has never happened before and who knows when it will happen again. The biggest Irish favorite of the day, Big Zeb, did not go in. But that did little to dampen the mood. And the party is sure to continue through the night and well into tomorrow.


    I'll post some more thoughts in this space tomorrow. And if you haven't signed up for my Twitter feed yet (@loomsboldly), you might consider doing so. I tipped up FIRST LIEUTENANT, who paid $16, and CARLITO BRIGANTE, who paid a remarkable $66.20 on twinspires, via tweet today. I'll do my best to suss out a few more winners tomorrow.

  • PTF live at the Guinness Tent

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale

  • Ruby Tuesday/Looking Forward to Wednesday

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale
    It was an amazing Day One here at the Cheltenham festival with jockey Ruby Walsh -- after missing most of the season due to injury -- winning three on the day, including Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle.

    I got to the course early this morning and I had the pleasure of attending Channel Four's The Morning Line preview show. I had the opportunity to speak for a few minutes with pundit extraordinaire Nick Luck (who American racing fans will know from his excellent work on the Breeders' Cup telecasts).

    I thought Cheltenham was crazy for me until I saw his dawn til past dusk schedule, power walking from one set to another, greeting people along the way like the Mayor of Cheltenham, stopping in between to make a writing deadline. Nick, I'm exhausted just watching you do your thing! Keep up the good work.

    Day Two's first Grade 1s comes in Race 3, the Jewson Novices' Chase, run at 2 miles and 5 furlongs (considerably farther than yesterday's Arkle). Favored #10 TIME FOR RUPERT is the one for me, based on his obvious class and love of the Cheltenham chase course. There are mumbles that he wouldn't be out of place in Friday's Gold Cup and I like his chances here.

    Race 4 is the feature, the 2 mile Queen Mother Champion Chase. This looks like a two horse race between Ireland's BIG ZEB and the UK's MASTER MINDED, both of whom have won this race before. Based on the state of the ground, which I thought produced good ground times yesterday, I have to go with BIG ZEB, who seems better suited to those conditions than MASTER MINDED, whose only three defeats have come on good ground. However, watch the weather. At the moment it looks like it might pour -- this was NOT in the forecast -- and that could really turn things around.

    Race 7 is the 24 runner, 2 mile, Grade 1 Champion Bumper. As mentioned yesterday, a bumper is a flat race for jump bred horses, and this race can produce future jumping stars. I'll be honest with you -- I haven't done nearly enough tape study to properly tip this race. But I will tell you that I happened to run into one of the owners from the Winning Ways Racing Syndicate last night, at the Plough in Prestbury (my favorite Cheltenham Pub). He says that his horse, #16 RAISE THE BEAT, is doing well and will love the ground (assuming these dark clouds go away and it stays good). Look: back home I wouldn't be caught dead passing along a tip I heard in a pub. But this is Cheltenham, and that's just how they do things here.

    One more Plough related tip: I was completely stymied in my efforts to get a taxi last night and received help from an unlikely source. I'll tell the whole story in a later blog but for now just know I'll be rooting like crazy in Race 2, the 2 mile 5 furlong Neptune Novices' Hurdle, for #3 FIRST LIEUTENANT. He has every chance on form as well.

    Check back in this space throughout the day and also follow me on Twitter for race-by-race updates.

  • In the paddock at Cheltenham

    POSTED Mar 15, 2011 By Peter Thomas Fornatale

  • TUESDAY PREVIEW

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale
    There really aren't any small races at Cheltnham, but today the Festival kicks off with three of the biggest big ones: The Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1, 2 1/16 miles), The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase(a G1 for Novice Chasers, 2 miles) and the day's feature race, The Champion Hurdle (2 1/16 miles), the race I wrote about in my previous post which was won by the great Rooster Booster in 2003.

    Before we get to the tips, here's a little bit of background for the uninitiated. Hurdles are smaller obstacles, as compared to the larger Steeplehase fences. Sometimes horses will go on from Hurdle races to Chases but classwise, Hurdling isn't any better or worse than Chasing, it's just different, emphasizing a different skill set for the horses, with the former putting a bit more emphasis on speed and the latter being a little more oriented toward jumping ability. The same jockeys ride both types of races.

    Novice races are races for less experienced runners, but they still hold a tremendous amount of prestige -- sort of like big stakes races restricted to three-year-olds in the USA. They're not the best of the best like the bigest Cheltenham events for the more experienced runners, but they are still championship events.

    In today's first race, #2 CUE CARD looks a deserving favorite to me. He stamped himself as a contender for this prize a year ago when he blew the doors off the field in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham (a Bumper is a flat race for inexperienced jump-bred horses). Last time, he found MENORAH too difficult but that runner is among the favorites in the Champion Hurdle and CUE CARD faces only novices here. Big chance to get things off to a rollicking start for trainer Colin Tizzard and his son Joe, who rides this beast.

    In Race 2, the Arkle, I am interested to take a shot with a little bit of a price, #7 REALT DUBH, an improving horse who comes off a win in the Irish equivalent of this race.

    In Race 4, the Champion Hurdle, there is a classic Irish-English tussle (more on that idea later in another post) between Eire's #4 HURRICANE FLY and the home team's #6 MENORAH. I don't know where to land here, and will use the prices and paddock to finalize my selection (check back via my Twitter feed for more on how that turns out) but if forced to make a pick now, I'd go with #4 HURRICANE FLY.

  • Why Cheltenham?

    POSTED By Peter Thomas Fornatale

    There was a time not that long ago when I had never even heard of the Cheltenham Festival, the world's premier jump racing meet. Now, along with the Kentucky Derby, Saratoga and the Breeders' Cup, it's one of the four cornerstones of my racing year.

    This year I have the pleasure of writing in this space, making a few videos and tweeting throughout the festival for the Twinspires blog. My goal is to provide some of the feel of what it's like to attend one of the world's great horse racing spectacles, and hopefully find us a few winners along the way. I am thrilled to be part of Twinspires ongoing Festival coverage and I encourage all racing fans to check it out.

    What makes Cheltenham so special? The sheer level of passion and enjoyment of the fans simply can't be matched. My first Champion Hurdle remains one of my most cherished Cheltenham memories. I stood in the packed granstand, which literally shook as a big, gray horse named Rooster Booster stormed up the famed Cheltenham hill.

    I am used to fans cheering for horses by their numbers, "Come on 2," "Hurry up the rail with this 1," even "Show me the 5." But as the crowd around me lent their support to Rooster Booster, something far more personal was happening. They exhorted him on like an old friend, even family, "Go on my son," "Come on, Rooster," and my personal favorite, screamed by a woman to my right with an accent straight out of Monty Python, "FLY ROOSTER, FLY!"

    After the race, I headed to the winners' enclosure, where not just the winning connections, but scores of fans crowded around to see Rooster up close. Many had bet on him, but more came just to give him a hand and offer thanks and praise to the hero of the hour, their champion.

    Toto, I don't think we're at Aqueduct anymore.