POSTED Feb 1, 2013
By
Derek Simon
When Paul
McCartney penned the beautiful ballad “The Long and Winding Road” two years
after his supposed passing (only Tupac Shakur has been more productive in death)
it is doubtful that he had the Triple Crown trail in mind — but he should have.
Given the song’s numerous references to crying and desertion, it tends to hit home
with a lot of bettors come the first Saturday in May.
And speaking
of that long and winding road: At least to me, the journey to Churchill Downs,
Pimlico and Belmont Park begins on Saturday — with the running of the Hutcheson
Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and the Withers
at Aqueduct.
Here’s a
brief look at each of those stellar events:
WITHERS
STAKES
Aqueduct Race 9
Winstar
Farm’s REVOLUTIONARY is the 3-5 morning line favorite in this 1 1/16-mile event,
which I think is absurd. The son of War Pass horse deserves to be favored, mind
you, but 3-5? I don’t think so and here’s why:
 |
| (Click
on image to enlarge) |
1. I distrust trainer
Todd Pletcher with horses coming off of great efforts; and Revolutionary’s last
race was just that, as he recorded a lifetime-best 103 Brisnet speed figure
(today’s par is a 99) and a -3 late speed ration (LSR).
2. I anticipate a relatively fast pace on Saturday and
notice what happened when Revolutionary had to exert himself a little bit (-7
early speed ration) to maintain a stalking position in the early going on Nov.
24 — he ran the worst race of his career.
3. Related to the above, the jockey switch to Javiar
Castellano is noteworthy. While Castellano is certainly a capable rider, few
are better at getting a horse to relax than the Eclipse Award-winning
Ramon Dominguez, who is recovering from injuries sustained in a spill on Jan. 18.
Obviously, none of this means that Revolutionary can’t win on Saturday, but at 3-5 I’m
not betting on it.
HUTCHESON
STAKES
Gulfstream
Park Race 10
I hated
Merit Man’s last race in the Spectacular Bid and will try to beat him in this
spot. Among the best upset possibilities is Forty Tales, another Todd Pletcher
trainee.
 |
| (Click
on image to enlarge) |
I really
like the improvement this guy showed last time and I think his breeding and
running style are ideally suited for the Hutcheson distance of seven furlongs.
SAM F.
DAVIS STAKES
Tampa
Bay Downs Race 11
This race
may very well be decided by tactics. If SPEAK LOGISTICS, who stood no shot in
the BC Juvenile given the pace (-15 ESR), can shake free early, he could be
awfully tough to beat.
 |
(Click
on image to enlarge)
|
Another horse that looks very good at what should be a
decent price is the Canadian shipper My Name Is Michael.
 |
| (Click
on image to enlarge) |
No
Weakening of the Breed
I love the old school approach that our brethren across the
pond take with their race horses. Check out Mick Dundee, who I ran across while
playing some races from Lingfield on TwinSpires.com on Thursday, Jan. 31:
 |
| (Click
on image to enlarge) |
Mick
Dundee won, notching his second victory in three days.
Free Weekend Handicapping Reports
& Selections
Saturday
(02/02/13)
 |
| (Click
on image to enlarge) |
