Showing posts with label Shanghai Bobby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shanghai Bobby. Show all posts

  • Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game strategy

    POSTED Mar 27, 2013 By Unknown
    A streamlined version of the popular Road To The Roses Kentucky Derby game begins this weekend, and with the most points available for winning the Kentucky Derby itself, the simplest strategy would be to select the six horses you feel have the best chance of winning the race.

    Unfortunately for me (and I'm guessing others) this isn't even close to optimum strategy for winning the game because multiple horses in my "top six" figure to be in the same race leading up to the Derby.

    There are 1,598 points available in this contest--170 in each of the seven Derby Championship Series races, 34 in each of the two wildcard races, and 340 in the Derby itself. I view a perfect score as 940 points: six 100-point scores in the DCS leg 2 races plus all 340 points in the Derby.

    Barring chaos, having multiple winners of DCS leg 2 races AND the Derby winner is far more important than only having the Derby winner, so even though I have Itsmyluckyday, Orb, and Shanghai Bobby all in my top five most likely winners of the Derby, I'll only use Itsmyluckyday for this contest because my best score with him and two other prep hopefuls is 620 whereas my best chance with all three in the Florida Derby is 480.

    But wait! There is not a single horse in the U.A.E. Derby that I view as a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat at this point, and that only leaves six other 170-point races. Can I really be expected to pick the winners of all six of them? Aren't I better off taking Shanghai Bobby and Orb than a stab at who will win (or even show up) in the wide open Blue Grass Stakes and/or Arkansas Derby?

    Here's who I know I have to have: Itsmyluckyday (Florida Derby), Verrazano (Wood Memorial), and Oxbow (Arkansas Derby). That leaves me three spots, and with the five-team limit I'll mix them up using the following scheme: the fourth spot will go between Flashback and Hear The Ghost in the Santa Anita Derby and the fifth and sixth spots will go among Palace Malice, Code West, Shanghai Bobby, and Orb in the Louisiana and Florida Derbys.

    Yeah, I'm giving up some 100-point expectations there by A) not including the Blue Grass Stakes at all and B) doubling up in the FL Derby, but I just can't ignore how strongly I feel about Orb and Shanghai Bobby being good horses.

    FULL DISCLOSURE: Part of my strategy is guided by having to compete against fewer people in the Churchill Downs Inc. employee league. If you're gunning for the top spot among ALL PLAYERS, then I absolutely would make at least one of my teams with obtaining the perfect score in mind.

  • Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 3, now or later?

    POSTED Mar 22, 2013 By Unknown
    Identifying potential wagers in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (click for free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) involves the following questions:

    1. What chance do I give this horse (or wagering interest in the case of the field) of winning the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands?

    2. What chance do I give of a horse's chance to win the Derby changing between now and May 4?

     3. Given the answers to questions 1 & 2, is it best to bet on this wagering interest now (in KDFW3), later (Derby day), or never?


    A "now" means I would bet that wagering interest if its odds to win are an overlay versus my fair odds line. A "later" means I'd need an additional premium to bet that horse now. I.e., I have Shanghai Bobby's fair odds to win the Derby at 18-to-1. However, he won't be favored to win the Florida Derby, and a loss there (even a good one) probably doesn't have him any lower than 12-to-1 on Derby day itself. Is it really worth 18-to-1 now? And even if he wins the Florida, I just don't see the hype on him enough to see him going any lower than 8-, and he's still might even be 10-to-1 depending on what others do. So given that, why take 18-to-1 now?

    Itsmyluckyday, on the other hand, will be (rightfully) favored to win the Florida Derby , and I expect a win. His price will depress significantly if (when!) that happens, so now is the time for this price should I get it.

    That's not to say I won't bet a horse now who's in the "later" category. An overlay is an overlay, and if a horse gets ridiculously ignored then there's no point missing out on the value. This was the case last year when I'll Have Another was ~22-to-1 in both pools 2 & 3. As it turns out, a win in the Santa Anita Derby knocked IHA's Derby day price down to 15-to-1. Another lesson from that exercise was not to be too bullish on horses from Pool 2 that won't race before Pool 3. It's a lesson I applied this year, and I'm hoping it pays off with horses like Itsmyluckyday and Orb.

     

  • Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 & weekend preview

    POSTED Feb 28, 2013 By Unknown
    The second (of three) Kentucky Derby Future Wager is this weekend, and unlike the first pool, some of the horses involved in this pool are running this weekend, so that changes the approach a little bit since what Overanalyze and Vyjack do in the Gotham at Aqueduct (free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) and what Titletown Five does in the Gazebo at Oaklawn will absolutely affect how they're bet in the final 24 hours the pool is open.



    For free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2, click here, and of course wager on the pools (and keep an eye on odds) via TwinSpires.com.
     
    I already have 13 horses covered in Kentucky Derby futures (see ALL BETS tab) with Verrazano and Orb being the two horses I'm most concerned with having $0 on. The former is scheduled to run next week in the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs while the latter just ran last weekend, winning the Fountain of Youth. That means I'm more likely to bet Verrazano in this spot and pass on Orb until the final pool since he won't run between now and then. I.e., why take 12-to-1 now (based on morning line) when I'll probably get that same price in a few weeks when other horses emerge?


     Verrazano, on the other hand, is 10-to-1 here and figures to be half that price if he wins the Tampa Bay Derby in impressive fashion, which I expect. Still, 10-to-1 is light too. I think this is a pretty good group of horses, so even if Verrazano wins out he still might only be 3- or 4-to-1 on Derby day. That price then appeals to me more than 10-to-1 now given the projected record.

     Two other horses in similar positions to Orb are Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby. Neither is likely to run before the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes pool 3, so again, why take the projected prices now when you can get three weeks closer to the Derby and about the same price then?

    I ended up not pulling the trigger on the field last time, and no regrets yet at 8-to-5 considering the only horses I missed out then that I can't get now are I've Struck A Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice, Shakin It Up, Titletown Five, and Treasury Bill. I didn't like the San Vicente at all, so SIU & TB are nonfactors to me. The Risen Star was OK, but I don't see either ISAN or PM as major enough threats at this point (& their price should still be OK three weeks from now). Titletown Five is precarious because if he runs well in the Gazebo he'll be an underlay, and if he doesn't run well then he's a nonfactor anyway. I might play him if he's a troubled second and then overlooked because you know Lukas will take his shot regardless.

     The only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager is this weekend (click here for free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs), and I'm not as bullish on that pool because there's no other opportunity besides race day to protect your position. That said, the Martha Washington horses might be OK at big prices, and So Many Ways at 30-to-1 is intriguing on a sort of "out of sight-out of mind-overlooked" angle.

     I don't get involved in exacta wagering much, but an Oaks-Derby future double could be fun down the road. Good luck for those getting involved this weekend!

  • Finding value in pool 1 of Kentucky Derby future wager

    POSTED Feb 6, 2013 By Unknown
    My strategy in recent future wagers has been to play horses in the 20-to-50-to-1 range that I thought had a good chance of making the gate and showed talent enough to win it. It's a grind having many units tied up for months, but it paid off last year when I got about 3-to-1 on my money when I'll Have Another rewarded my confidence in him early (Derby week I switched my pick to Hansen, ugh) and returned $1,669.50 on $395 wagered.

    I think this year's offering (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs on the 23 individual horses plus select "field" contenders) requires a different approach, however, because three of the top four horses in my mind are far better than the next tier of horses. If the field and/or the other 20 individual betting interests take too much money, then I wouldn't hesitate to play Itsmyluckyday, Flashback, or Verrazano in the 15-to-1 range.

    What would make me shy away from Itsmyluckyday and possibly others as we learn more about their next targets is that they might not even run again before the second (or third!) future pool. It's important to ask yourself how dormancy could affect prices. If individual interests run again, those who run well will be shorter prices in future pools.

    In this pool, Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary, and Shanghai Bobby might not run until Pool 3 weekend or beyond. I.e., there's a very good chance Itsmyluckyday could be 12-to-1 in this pool but 15-to-1 in seven weeks. Nothing will have changed except other horses showing capability (others will drop off, too, of course).

    That's not as big a risk with Verrazano and Flashback since they're both more likely to run again, if not by Pool 2 then certainly by Pool 3. Verrazano, in particular, has shown me enough talent that I'm interested in him if the 15-to-1 morning line holds up. Unfortunately, I think he'll be more like 12-to-1.
    Which brings us to the field. I can't imagine the super horse it would take for this option not to be favored in pool 1, and we certainly don't have that this year, but I do think we have enough good horses that maybe the field drifts a bit into the $7+ range for a $2 ticket, and I'm definitely interested at 3-to-1.

    I've typically shied away from the field because the aforementioned 20-to-50-to-1-range horses offer the most value, but there is a good collection of horses in the field that I suspect will be a part of pools 2 and/or 3 next month, which goes back into the concern I expressed for taking Itsmyluckyday now versus later.

     

  • Three preps and a cloud of dust

    POSTED Jan 31, 2013 By Unknown
    With 51 points available this weekend (17 in each of three Kentucky Derby Prep Season races), the February 2 action will be the most lucrative to date on this year's Triple Crown trail.

     For free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for the three races (Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, Withers at Aqueduct, and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita), click here. No race this weekend features a horse currently among the top 11 points earners through last weekend, but that would change even for a horse without any points with a win.

     Triple Crown Insider returns for this big weekend on the Derby trail. Watch the video below to see who JS & JC like in this weekend's big races.

    Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

  • Points make the grade, too

    POSTED By Unknown
    Over on the Twitters, Chris Rossi of @O_Crunk fame is fond of chiding me for sticking up for a Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands qualifying system that now uses points rather than graded stakes earnings to determine the field if more than 20 horses enter.

     Indeed, back in March 2010 I wrote a paean to the graded stakes earnings system that dared anyone to think that a points system could be superior.

     One of the things gambling has taught me is that there's no perfect system. The martingale eventually collapses under the weight of table limits, and "angles" in horse racing (e.g. best last-out figure) eventually lose their edge in a pari-mutuel format.

    And so it goes with Derby qualifying rules, too. The new system isn't perfect but nor was the old system. Lost in all the consternation of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner no longer being guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Fillies Turf winners aren't either.

    That Shanghai Bobby isn't yet guaranteed a spot in the Derby is a big reason why we saw him in the Holy Bull Stakes this past weekend. Do you think Uncle Mo would have run in the Timely Writer Stakes if the points system was in place in 2010-2011?

    Another Breeders' Cup Juvenile comparison people make is to lament that the race is "worth the same as the Delta Jackpot" or "the four-horse Bob Lewis." What they don't acknowledge is that it's also no longer the most important race, as it was when it worth $2-million rather than

    I am not arguing for or against the BC Juvenile being worth 10 points to the winner, but I absolutely do think it's a positive that it and all other Breeders' Cup races are no longer automatic qualifiers and that it's no longer the most valuable race for qualifying purposes. 

    Also lost in the conversation is that spots one through 19 really don't matter. Oh, sure, those higher in the standings might attract more money from casual fans who recognize the names, but in terms of the purpose of the system, a billion points in first is the same as ten points in 19th.

     And 20th only matters if there's a horse in 21st. It's not a given that more than 20 will enter. The wailing and gnashing of teeth four months out about which horses might be left out doesn't seem to reflect the real possibility that no horse will be left out.

    Admittedly when this all began I had my doubts whether the new points system would achieve its stated goal of being more accessible to fans and help build drama on the Road to the Derby, but I'm happy to report that initial returns (albeit based mostly on anecdotal evidence) appear that I was wrong, and that the system is in fact helping drum up more interest not only in the races but also both the horses and competitions involved in the build up.

    Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

  • Wiseguys Holy Bearish on Shanghai Bobby

    POSTED Jan 26, 2013 By Unknown
    Shanghai Bobby will have more money bet on him to win the Holy Bull Stakes (free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) than all other horses combined, yet few are actually picking him to win.

     This is common phenomena among the horse racing cognoscenti. Picking favorites--especially odds on favorites coming off a layoff following a slow race--is taboo and a typical path to the poorhouse. It's not that anyone thinks Shanghai Bobby can't win--he's even the most likely winner--but 4-to-5 on the aforementioned variables does encourage shopping around.

     So what is the best approach to betting a race where the most likely winner is an underlay? On the plus side, underlays create overlays (not always the case because of takeout, but you can't have an overlay without an underlay), but on the negative side, betting against the most likely winner increases variance, so navigating these situations is essential for proper bankroll management.

     Itsmyluckyday is my top pick. I think he can win this race 25% of the time (3-to-1 fair odds), so 6-to-1 (14.3%) makes him a decent win bet, and the field is competitive enough that I'll probably play him across in case Shanghai Bobby runs well ... enough for fourth.

     Still, I do like Shanghai Bobby more than some of the otherwise-fashionable alternatives in the race like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square. If Shanghai Bobby were to win, then I'd like to beat FD & DS underneath. There's still money to be made if Shanghai Bobby wins but Itsmyluckyday and/or Sr. Quisqueyano crash the number as well.

    The one favorite on the card I do love is Kauai Katie in the Forward Gal Stakes (Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs for Kentucky Oaks prep races, including the Santa Ysabel). She'll be 1-to-2 making her tough to bet to win, but I'll probably try to get live to my prices in the Holy Bull by singling her in the multis.

    And perhaps the most exciting news of all as the Kentucky Derby trail winds toward Louisville, is that TCI is back with Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham recapping the major players on the trail so far and previewing the Holy Bull.

  • The Kentucky Derby future wager question before a big prep race: Now or later?

    POSTED Jan 22, 2013 By Unknown
    Shanghai Bobby is the third consecutive undefeated two-year-old male champion to cap his Eclipse Award-winning season with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but will the champ's three-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park be met with the same zest as Uncle in 2011 and Hansen in 2012?

     There's zero chance that Shanghai Bobby will be the 1-to-20 Uncle Mo was when winning the Timely Writer Stakes, but he might be around the 9-to-10 Hansen was when second to Algorithms in last year's Holy Bull (at a one-turn mile; this year's race is 1 1/16 miles).

     I'd be beyond shocked if Shanghai Bobby weren't favored, but a deep field featuring Bern Identity, Clearly Now, Dewey Square, Frac Daddy, Itsmyluckyday, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Tulira Castle should keep the price in that even money range--especially since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (his first race around two turns) was so slow based on metrics used by people who can move an odds board.

     I'll have (what I hope is) the pleasure of being in Las Vegas this week both before and after the Holy Bull, and all of the probables above are listed for wagering on the Wynn's Kentucky Derby future wager pool (link goes to free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of all horses offered).

     Derek Simon and I have talked about our approaches to future wagers on the TwinSpires.com podcast, and listeners know that Shanghai Bobby (15-to-1), Frac Daddy (22-to-1), and Dewey Square (35-to-1) wouldn't appeal to me at those prices, but Bern Identity (50-to-1), Itsmyluckyday (65-to-1), Tulira Castle (100-to-1) Sr. Quisqueyano (225-to-1), and Clearly Now (250-to-1) have more appealing prices.

     The question is, do I bet now or later? My thinking right now is that Shanghai Bobby is definitely the most likely winner of the Holy Bull but not of the Kentucky Derby. The way I plan to bet that opinion is to "let him" win the Holy Bull and if any of the horses at 50-to-1 or better run well behind them then still try to lock in those inflated prices.

     The risk is that if any of the $100+ horses wins (or runs a flashy race behind the champion) then that price will be gone as well, but that's a chance I'm willing to take since I think Shanghai Bobby is the most likely winner of this race but not of the Kentucky Derby.

    If you like Sr. Quisqueyano or Clearly Now those prices might seem enticing now, but they're certain to be among the longshots in the Holy Bull. Let's say they're 20-to-1 and a win would reduce either's price for the Kentucky Derby to 50-to-1. A $2 wager on them to win the Derby now would return $452 on Sr. Quisqueyano and $502 on Clearly Now. A $2 wager on them to win the Holy Bull would return $42. Parlaying that on them to win the Derby gets you to $2,000+. Even if they dropped to 20-to-1 after a Holy Bull win you'd be better of parlaying.

    Thus, there really isn't that much risk to giving up the big price if you really like them to win. Granted, you're still going to lose some odds if they run well, but it still makes sense to wait.

    For those looking for some pari-mutuel future wager action, Churchill Downs' first pool will be February 8-10, which is an empty week as far as points races going but follows a busy February opening of the Sam F. Davis, Robert B. Lewis, and the Withers.

     As a final aside, here is the previous ten champion two-year-old males and race and odds in their three-year-old debut. I think it's interesting that both Uncle Mo and War Pass bowed in meaningless races at 1-to-20 and then lost their next start before missing the Derby. That Shanghai Bobby shows up in the Holy Bull is a testament A) to the effectiveness of the new Derby points system, B) trainer Todd Pletcher's confidence in the champion, or both.

     Hansen, Holy Bull, 9-to-10
    Uncle Mo, Timely Writer, 1-to-20
    Lookin At Lucky, Rebel, 11-to-10
    Midshipman, off trail
    War Pass, allowance, 1-to-20
    Street Sense, Tampa Bay Derby, 6-to-5
    Stevie Wonderboy, San Rafael, 3-to-5
    Declan's Moon, Bob Lewis (nee Santa Catalina), 4-to-5
    Action This Day, Sham, 19-to-10
    Vindication, retired

  • Kentucky Derby Futures

    POSTED Jan 12, 2013 By Derek Simon
    I have a standard response to anybody that asks me who I like for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In a whiny voice I screech, “Derby? Don’t talk about … Derby? You kidding me? Derby? I just hope I can win a race!”

    OK, OK, maybe I don’t go all Jim Mora on folks, but the question does surprise me in some ways — I mean, the Kentucky Derby is over 16 weeks away, for heaven’ sake.

    Still, I realize that a lot of folks start their Derby lists as early as I hang my Christmas lights, so I thought: Why be so whiny? Give the people what they want.

    Hence, without even a grimace on my face, I present some horses to watch this spring, along with my opinion as to whether or not they are "futures-worthy:"

    TOP 2013 KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Shanghai Bobby (18-1)
    His effort in the BC Juvenile was less than inspiring, although he did record a ridiculously fast -17 early speed ration (ESR) in that race. Prior to that, the son of Harlan’s Holiday earned an excellent -2 late speed ration (LSR) in the Champagne Stakes. Mixed signals.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Goldencents (25-1)
    Breeding is about as suspect as the Lakers’ defense this year, but I like the fact that the Doug O’Neil trainee was able to rate effectively in the Grade III Sham.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Uncaptured (14-1)
    After tasting defeat for the first time in the Grade III Grey Stakes at Woodbine, the son of Lion Heart rebounded with a very impressive performance in the Grade III Iroquois at Churchill Downs, his first start on conventional dirt. Better still, his pace figures in that event were very strong: a -10 ESR and -5 LSR.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Bern Identity (60-1)
    This guy will need to show that he’s a better router than he is a sprinter, but he’s certainly got talent.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Up With the Birds (125-1)
    If there’s justice in the world, a horse with such an awful name won’t win the Kentucky Derby. However, this Canadian-bred son of Stormy Atlantic has recorded some ridiculously good LSRs over Woodbine’s  Polytrack surface and might be even better on dirt.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Vyjack (75-1)
    Love his talent… don’t love his breeding for 1 ¼ miles.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Nobe Tune (45-1)
    Although he’s only raced on the lawn (he was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf), I really like Noble Tune’s ability to gain ground on the turn.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Speak Logistics (125-1)
    I’m throwing out the BC Juvenile due to the hot pace; however, this dude will need to learn how to rate to stand any shot on the first Saturday in May.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Get Happy Mister (125-1)
    To the best of my knowledge, Colorado-breds like Get Happy Mister are undefeated in the Kentucky Derby… I’ll leave it to readers to figure out why.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Avie’s Quality (125-1)
    Another Woodbine-based runner with solid pace figures.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Bradester (100-1)
    Improving sort who has yet to be tested for class.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Balance the Books (75-1)
    He’s only raced over the weeds and, in fact, was a fast-closing third despite traffic trouble in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf, but I can’t wait to see this guy try the dirt — or at the very least synthetics. His turn times make me think he could be the next Animal Kingdom.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Normandy Invasion (25-1)
    Like this fast-improving son of Tapit a lot — but not at 25-1 in January.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Carried Interest (150-1)
    He’s out of a sprint sire and seems unlikely to get the 10 furlongs of the Derby.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Mylute (100-1)
    Son of two-time BC Sprint champ Midnight Lute has been competitive in some lower-level stakes events and seemed to step up to the next level with resounding 10 ¾-length win against lesser at the Fair Grounds on Dec. 6.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Delhomme (100-1)
    Winstar Farm protégé has good early and late pace figures and could be a contender if he learns how to rate.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Archwarrior (35-1)
    Made his debut this summer at Saratoga with a reputation bigger than the grandstand and he didn’t disappoint, winning by 3 ¼ lengths at 1-5. The son of Arch was next seen in the Champagne, but looked like he was carrying the grandstand that day, finishing a dull fourth. Right now, his future odds don’t match his present ability.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Crop Report (85-1)
    I suspect the field of maidens he beat at Newmarket wasn’t the strongest in the world, but anytime a horse can win by daylight on the green, I give it a second look. That said, 85-1 is way too low on a horse that may not even make the trip to Kentucky.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Frac Daddy (22-1)
    His maiden win was spectacular and he followed that up with a game second in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

    Yea or Nay: Nay.
    Amerigo Vespucci (225-1)
    In what’s becoming a theme, this son of Henrythenavigator will have to prove that he can outrun his sprint-oriented pedigree. His effort in the Jerome was encouraging.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    War Academy (40-1)
    Solid -4 LSR in his debut, a 6 ½-furlong maiden affair at Hollywood Park.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Power Broker (35-1)
    Seems sure to be pointed toward the Derby, which is hurdle #1. I also like his ability to be in the mix early. The price is a little on the low side, but it’s in the ballpark for a colt that figures to dance the dances.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Ali's Birthday (250-1)
    Very good debut (93 Brisnet speed figure, -4 ESR, -4 LSR) against lesser at Ellis Park going 5 ½ panels.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Little Distorted (45-1)
    First race was great; second race, not so much.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Golden Soul (225-1)
    He looks a little slow at the moment, but his pace figures stamp him as one to keep an eye on.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Belvin (85-1)
    Well-bred son of Empire Maker is in great hands and showed a fair amount of ability in his first two starts.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Mountain Eagle (125-1)
    Whitney Stables, Birdstone, Nick Zito… all familiar names, all associated with this colt. If he doesn’t make the Derby, maybe he can make the Test of Champions.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Revolutionary (45-1)
    Love his last race (103 BSF, -3 LSR) and the connections are solid (Winstar Farm owns, Todd Pletcher trains).
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Uptown Boy (500-1)
    This guy looks more like a mid-level sprint champion than a Kentucky Derby champ, but stranger things have happened, I guess.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Appealing Tale (150-1)
    Went ridiculously fast early (-17 ESR) in his maiden-breaker on Dec. 29, yet still drew away to an impressive score that day. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Rienzi (275-1)
    His race at Parx on Nov. 2 was OK, but it wasn’t near good enough for Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May… unless he’s running on the undercard.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Track Rocker (200-1)
    Needs to prove he’s got the class to compete at a higher level; however, his maiden race at Delaware Park was excellent.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.
    (Click on image to enlarge)