Showing posts with label showdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label showdown. Show all posts

  • Summer Showdown strategy: the longer you go the easier it gets

    POSTED Jul 17, 2013 By Unknown
    We've
    Been
    Through
    This
    Before:

     Winning one show bet is easy (or at least it's the easiest bet to hit). Stringing them together is not.
    But such is the task that awaits TwinSpires.com players looking to stake their claim at the $50,000 up for grabs in the Summer Showdown promotion that starts today with race 1 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

     To win (or share) in each day's $1,500 prize, all you have to do is make a winning $10 show bet on every race of the card at the designated track (this week it's Del Mar, next week it'll be Saratoga; for a full schedule, click scheduled & results on this page).

     If nobody picks 8 (or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12) then that day's $1,500 prize carries over into the next day. Each week is its own contest, meaning that Sundays are must-win days. If nobody runs the table during the week then Sunday's prize is $7,500 split among those who run the table or last the longest.

     Each day's contest begins with race 1 at the designated track, and only your first $10 show wager counts, so you can't dutch or buy a race. Also--unlike Let 8 Ride--this is not a parlay contest, so if you advance to the next race be sure to do a $10 show bet on your selection before placing any other bets (i.e., you may want to parlay, and you can--just split your bets. E.g., you bet $10 to show on a horse who hits the board and pays $3.60 to show. If you want to "let it ride" by betting $18 on the next race first bet $10 to show then $8 to show).

     The title of this post alludes to my strategy if I were able to compete for the $50,000 in prizes. There are two considerations when making a wager: The likelihood of something happening, and the price you get if it does.

     Without the $1,500 (or more!) carrot each day, anyone wishing to bet $10 to show should do so on the horse s/he feels offers the best value in that pool, but adding a bonus for sweeping the card changes that dynamic somewhat.

     The balance is that you are making live bets, so after your first bet you're -$10. If that initial bet pays $4 then you're +$10 and it's now "free" to play the rest of the day. If you cash two $3 payoffs then race 3 on is free, etc. For that reason, unless there is an absolute lock in the first couple-few races, I'm still betting the value, but once you're in a spot where you're up $10, going for the $1,500 (or more!) is more important than cashing value.

     That's another riff on my Players Pool conundrum post from a few weeks ago: winning underlay or losing overlay. If you've hit nine show bets in a row today at Del Mar, I would hope you put your $10 on the horse most likely to hit the board--even if the value is terrible because the value for you isn't collecting that $2.20 payoff when it should be $3.00, but it's in hitting the $1,500 bonus.

     Some have asked how I would play today's races. I'm not eligible for any additional prizes, but there's nothing wrong with hitting some $10 show bets, so I gave it a go. Below is my ABC grid for opening day at Del Mar plus an extra column labeled "SHOW" that indicates the horse I would use on day 1 of the $50k Summer Showdown.

  • TwinSpires player turns $20 to show on Orb into $6,705.67 pay day

    POSTED Jun 19, 2013 By Unknown
    For those who thought (as I did) that Orb was the most likely winner of the Belmont Stakes, nearly even money (19-to-20, paying $3.90) to show on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winner in the third jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown must have seemed like great value.

     Indeed, ChungMing Hui of New York thought Orb gave him the best chance not only to cash a show bet but also win his share of the $10,000 TwinSpires.com put up as part of its Triple Crown SHOWdown competition. Each correct $20 show bet on 17 prep races plus each classic was worth 1 share. Those who swept the Triple Crown split the $10,000 based on the number of shares they had.

     Hui went into the Belmont as one of 14 people still eligible for a share of the $10,000. Those 14 players had 70 shares between them, with five shares already to Hui's credit, meaning a sixth share in the Belmont would have been worth a minimum of $714.28 to him even if the other 13 players were all right as well.

     But a funny thing happened considering the Derby and Preakness winners both hit the tri: Only two of the 14 people hit the Belmont. Most picked Revolutionary, two picked Orb, and nobody picked either winner Palace Malice or runner-up Oxbow.

     The top three finishers in the Belmont Stakes had more than 50% of the show pool among them, but only 14.3% of TwinSpires.com SHOWdown players survived. It lifted Hui's payout from a minimum $753.28 (including the $39 for his show bet) to $6,705.67.

    I talked in this blog about the strategy going into the last race: better to go for the surer thing and cash for less or go for the home run. As it turned out, betting the favorite was a bonanza, but it's not as if most people were going for gusto on horses like Frac Daddy. Indeed, the most popular pick to show was second choice Revolutionary. It makes sense given the running style that even if you thought he wouldn't win, he'd be closing. He never fired, though, and the TwinSpires.com SHOWdown dreams of many players went up in smoke.

     So there was no $1-million winner again this year, but that two players won thousands of dollars on a 3-race show parlay is still pretty cool.

  • Turning $20 to show into $10,000

    POSTED May 28, 2013 By Unknown
    We're still 11 days out, but the Belmont Stakes (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of possible entrants) is shaping up to be a fantastic race as part of an always-fascinating card at Belmont Park.

     Many of us (including the TwinSpires.com Players Pool) will attempt to conquer the $1-million guaranteed Pick 6 and/or Pick 4 pools or any number of wagering opportunities on this day of more than $90-million in handle, but for 14 players on TwinSpires.com, a $20 show wager could be the most lucrative bet of the day.

     The potential bonanza comes by way of being the only people to survive similar $20 show bets on both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and the Preakness Stakes. Whomever makes a successful bet on the Belmont Stakes will split a $10,000 prize pool based on how many $20 show wagers were hit throughout the Kentucky Derby prep & Triple Crown seasons.

     Of the 1,253 who made qualifying show bets on the Derby, 344 (27.4%) advanced to the Preakness where Orb's fourth-place contributed to thinning the field by another 96% to the 14 are are still alive

    Those 14 surviving players have earned 70 shares total, meaning each share is worth a minimum of $119.04 if everyone hits the Belmont. Shares earned range from two (7 players) to ten (three players), so the minimum bonus is $357.12 to those with a pair of shares and $1309.44 to those with ten. Of course, if only one person survives then s/he would win the whole $10,000 regardless of how many shares s/he had going into the Belmont.

     The range of possibilities makes it an interesting study in gamesmanship. Picking the most likely horse to hit the board may yield a small show payoff ($2.60-$3), but a guaranteed $357.12 bonus is like getting back $38-$39, and that kind of scratch can be tough to turn down even in the face of going for thousands of dollars--because when it comes to betting longshots to show, you're at the mercy of who finishes in the other two positions.

    Getting cute and being right with a horse like Giant Finish won't matter much if Revolutionary and Orb complete the tri, so if you're going to take a big swing you want to make sure you'll be rewarded for it. 

    Kathy Brady already knows she's going for Revolutionary in the Belmont. That was her pick in the Derby, and his third-place finish advanced her to the Preakness where Mylute advanced her to the Belmont.

    "The Withers to me was the most impressive prep race, so I thought Revolutionary could win [the Derby] so I picked him to show," said Barker, who currently has seven shares and would collect a minimum of $952.32 with a successful Belmont bet. "In the Preakness I thought Orb would win, but his odds were terrible, so I thought Mylute could be possible for second or third. Oxbow was not in my thoughts to win. I won nothing but my Mylute show bet.

    "I don't know if post position matters that much in the Belmont, but I think Castellano back on Revolutionary can make a difference, so I will have him back as my show bet."

    Pete Ballard is one of three people with ten shares, and like Brady, Ballard has advanced through the Triple Crown season by using Revolutionary and Mylute. Unlike Brady, however, Ballard is unsure who his Belmont pick will be. As a devoted user of the Brisnet.com MultiCAPS files, Ballard likes to crunch the numbers before making picks.

    "I am a software developer, and I use the MultiCAPS data files to do my analysis," Ballard said. "I use four main factors that I key off of, but I still look at other variables that I learned from Brisnet.com newsletter/tutorials--things like pace, race shapes, value, and finding the 'horse for the course.'

    "As far as the Belmont is concerned, can Orb come back and be a legit favorite this time or is he regressing now? Can Mylute improve at this distance? How does Revolutionary look after a 4 week rest and does it have the pedigree for this distance? There are several other horses in the Belmont that I like besides these three. I need to look deeper ... before I can make a decision."

    It's easy to understand the desire to explore all angles when as much as $10,000 is on the line for something as seemingly simple as a $20 show bet.


    For those out of the Showdown promotion (or those never in it, anyway), all TwinSpires.com players will have a chance at an extra $10,000 courtesy the Belmont Pick 4 bonus. All those who hit the all-stakes Pick 4 ending with the Belmont Stakes will share in a separate $10,000 prize pool.

  • Rebel Stakes preview: Anothing losing opinion about who will lose?

    POSTED Mar 15, 2013 By Unknown
    My strongest opinion regarding the Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, involves who won't win rather than who will.

     I don't get the love for Treasury Bill at all. I don't like him for basically the same reason I didn't like Orb: he's too slow.

     Orb ended up making a fool out of me, and maybe Treasury Bill will, too. I mean, it's not like he can't improve 7-10 points given the stretch out and expected pace dynamics, but at the expected price (5-to-1 on the morning line, but lower wouldn't surprise me) I have to bet against him improving AND the top four regressing (Super Ninety Nine) or running flat (Delhomme, Den's Legacy, and Oxbow).
    I'm having a hard time making a top pick. For TwinSpires.com SHOWdown purposes I definitely think Super Ninety Nine is the play, but all four of the ones I mentioned as needing to not improve for Treasury Bill to win look like win threats at the odds, and each has an interesting storyline:

     Delhomme: If Normandy Invasion and Overanalyze had run to their odds in the Risen Star and Gotham, respectively, we'd probably be talking about Delhomme as the likely strong second choice instead of the favorite. He's running as much for the reputation of the Remsen as he is for himself.

     Den's Legacy: The other Baffert, I don't get loving Treasury Bill but not this horse. Den's Legacy is faster than Treasury Bill, and if you think TB is going to get the ideal trip, then Den's Legacy figures to as well.

     Oxbow: The first horse in awhile that D. Wayne Lukas is actually pointing to Kentucky Derby prep races rather than running them just because he can. Several performance figures actually credit the Lecomte winner's Risen Star as best, and he looked like a winner at the eighth pole. A similar trip but one that saves ground absolutely can get it done in this spot.

     Super Ninety Nine: Baffert at Oaklawn. I've seen some question how far Super Ninety Nine wants to go, but if Baffert could get Secret Circle to win this race last year then Super Ninety Nine can win it this year. He's 3-to-2 on the morning line, though, and I don't know that he wins this 40% of the time, and he might be even money or worse. Still, I'd rather bet him as the favorite than Treasury Bill as second choice.

     Wagering wise, I'll take the top three there (who are in alphabetical, no selection order) over the four for nine units. I'll then key Super Ninety Nine over those three in the tri for six units.

  • Road To the Derby $1-million Showdown

    POSTED Feb 20, 2013 By Unknown
    Look, I'm not going to sit here and tell you how easy it is to win $1-million playing TwinSpires.com's $1-million Road to the Derby Showdown.

    Sure, the show wager is the easiest bet to hit when playing the races, but 20 in a row on races we pick makes it a lot more difficult.

     Difficult. Not impossible.

    TwinSpires.com ran this promotion last year but required 23 consecutive winning $20 show bets--20 before the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and then the three Triple Crown races. This year 20 total is the magic number, and if someone starts off with 17 in a row as was the case last year, then s/he would be a Show Crown away from $1-million.

     Again, easier said than done, but if winning a million dollars were easy anywhere (even the track) then you'd never have heard about a bet called the Rainbow^6. And it's not as if it hasn't almost been done. If five people can go 18/20 and one person can do 17 in a row, then 20/20 is doable.

    Really, though, the $1-million prize is just a nice bonus if you get lucky and run the table. The benefit of the Road to the Derby Showdown beyond the million is that you get to keep your winnings and take a run at both a guaranteed $10,000 prize pool for sweeping the Triple Crown and tickets to next year's Kentucky Derby for cashing the most show bets during this year's prep season.

     Because each of the prizes reward being right more than being smart, the proper strategy is to always select the starter you think is most likely to finish third or better. With--at minimum--a share of $10,000 up for grabs, it is pound foolish to try to find value in the show pool when playing this contest. Building shares should be your focus during the prep season with survival being essential during the Triple Crown (you only cash in on a share of the $10k if you hit all three classics).

     Last year 17 individual players split the $10,000 with 200 shares among them making each share worth $50. Mona Weaver was one of five players with 18 shares but the only one to sweep the Triple Crown to earn $900 for her efforts.

    This year, there will be 15% fewer races for building shares, and if the ratio stays the same then that means each share would be worth $54.05. At that price point, it's easy to see how hitting 10 bets at $2.20 makes more sense than 8 at $4.

     So fund your TwinSpires.com account, study up on this weekend's races (including watching the TCI video below), and start on your path toward $1-million!