Showing posts with label will take charge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label will take charge. Show all posts

  • Game On Dude still the country's best horse

    POSTED Aug 26, 2013 By Unknown
    The results of this weekend's races--despite the favorite rolling in the Pacific Classic Stakes and an upset in the Travers--did nothing to change my thoughts on the championship picture for Horse of the Year and three-year-old male, respectively.
    Game On Dude is still in the Horse of the Year drivers seat by virtue of his third Grade 1 win--all at 1 1/4 miles and on three different surfaces. Wise Dan could have five Grade 1 wins by the end of the year, but it will be impossible to deny Game On Dude Eclipse Awards as Horse of the Year and champion older male if he finally gets his Breeders' Cup Classic (he'd have won both awards in 2011 or 2012 with a win in that race).

     I've had Game On Dude "ranked" on top since his Hollywood Gold Cup win, and he'll stay there unless he loses the Breeders' Cup.

     And Orb is still the top three-year-old male by virtue of his Kentucky and Florida Derby wins to go along with blacktype in the Belmont and Travers Stakes. Palace Malice remains in second with the Belmont and Jim Dandy wins, but is in a position of needing to win races to dethrone Orb. "Much the best" fourth-place finishes won't cut it--even in great races like the Jockey Club Gold Cup or Breeders' Cup Classic.

     Speaking of Palace Malice and the Travers, him rounding out the superfecta has to be the most celebrated fourth-place finish in the history of the Turf outside Jazil and Brother Derek dead heating for fourth in the 2006 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands. I don't disagree that he was among the best in the race, but I don't think he was "much the best" nor do I think he'll never lose to his peers again.

     Orb (my pick) had absolutely no excuse considering the trip. He flattened and somehow held on for show (this description works well for his Belmont as well), but unlike the Belmont when he was a gassed horse racing for the sixth time in five months, he probably needed this race. I'm not giving up on him--especially if he shows up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in the 10-to-1 range.
    Will Take Charge ran well considering how he had to get there, and he ran fast. I guess all this praise of the winner, third-, and fourth-place finishers means I should love Moreno, too, but I'm just not sold.

     As for Will Take Charge's championship aspirations, it comes down to winning. I still have him behind Verrazano on the three-year-old depth chart. The Travers is a real nice race to win but that and the Rebel doesn't usurp a Wood Memorial-Haskell double, though another graded win probably would--especially if it comes against older.

     My America's Best Racing/ESPN poll for the week is:

     1. Game On Dude, 2. Wise Dan, 3. Royal Delta, 4. Cross Traffic, 5. Obviously, 6. Point of Entry, 7. Sahara Sky, 8. Fort Larned, 9. Flat Out, 10. Successful Dan.

     Biggest race this coming weekend is the Woodward.

  • Belmont Stakes pedigree: looking for that magic cross

    POSTED Jun 6, 2013 By Unknown
    When it comes to pedigree handicapping, I'm not a big fan of saying a certain aspect of a horse's lineage means s/he can't do something on the track. Rather, pedigree helps gives clues as to what a horse might most like to do: run short, long, or somewhere in between and on which surface.

     A horse who figures best going long on the turf can still win sprinting on the dirt under certain circumstances, and vice versa and any other combination you can think of.

     That's not to say pedigree handicapping isn't important, because it absolutely is, not only as an indicator of potential talent but also as one of the few areas that not all handicappers utilize, which leads to better prices.

    Pedigree is most used in maiden and turf races, and for horses stretching out. The one thing those three categories have in common is that they involve horses doing things they've never done before. That's why pedigree handicapping is such a big part of handicapping races like the Kentucky and Epsom Derbys--no horse in those races has typically raced at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 miles, respectively.

     The Belmont Stakes is similar with its 1 1/2-mile distance, but for whatever reason doesn't get quite the same attention as the Derby from a pedigree perspective, and that's a shame because some trends have clearly developed over the past 22 years since Hansel, by Woodman out of a Dancing Count mare, won the 1991 Belmont Stakes.

     That marked the first time a Mr. Prospector-line stallion out of a Northern Dancer-line mare would win the Test of the Champion but certainly not the last, as it has happened an astonishing seven times since with Mr. Prospector-line stallions accounting for another five wins on top of that and Northern Dancer-line broodmares another three wins. The reverse cross of a Northern Dancer-line sire over a Mr. Prospector-line mare accounted for last year's winner.

     The following chart below shows the sire and broodmare sire lines of all Belmont Stakes winners going back to Summing in 1981. Mr. Prospector is present in 16 of the past 31 winners with 15 of those coming on the sire side. Northern Dancer is in 16 of the past 27 but more evenly distributed on top five times and with the dam 11 times.

     So who has the magic combo in this year's group (Belmont 2013 tab)? Palace Malice and Will Take Charge are both by Mr. Prospector-line stallions out of Northern Dancer-line mares while Golden Soul and Midnight Taboo have the reverse of that cross that last year's winner Union Rags has. The only other Mr. Prospector-line stallion in the race is the filly Unlimited Budget, whose dam is from the In Reality line. That's the same cross 2000 winner Commendable had.

     A.P. Indy is a popular sire line this year, but the only success he's had in the race since winning it in 1992 was with Rags To Riches in 2007. Still, all three of his representatives are out of either Northern Dancer- or Mr. Prospector-line mares.

     Is all this to say that you need Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer influences to win the Belmont Stakes? Of course not. There are plenty of pedigrees we could look at with both those heavy hitters in the sire and dam lines and think this horse has no business on dirt and/or around two turns, but the great thing about the American classic races is that despite their distances they all require brilliance. Plodders and deep closers rarely do well in any of the three races. Classic breeding begets classic success.

     Full disclosure: I happen to be director of marketing for Brisnet.com, which specializes in providing a lot of this info to handicappers. Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances include pedigree information not found in any other product, and tbe Brisnet.com American Produce Records (APR Online) allows users to search by entry and is great for handicapping maidens, turf races, and stretch outs.

  • Horse by horse Preakness analysis with fair odds line

    POSTED May 16, 2013 By Unknown
    I’m not the type that’s big into having to pick one horse as the winner of each race. I understand why it’s done for major events, but even though I’m calling Itsmyluckyday my pick to win the Preakness Stakes (as he was in the Derby) it’s not like I think he’s the only horse who can win. Heck, he isn’t even the most likely winner!

    So, in James Scully-style here is a list of reasons why each of the Preakness Stakes entrants could win the middle jewel of American Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown along with the odds I think each has of doing so. Also included is a reason why they won’t win.

    #1 Orb (even money)
    PROS: His Kentucky Derby was a tour de force that made his 5.4-to-1 odds in that race seem like an absolute gift. He was obviously best in that race, so why should any of the five also rans from two weeks ago turn the tables on him here? There are the three new shooters, but any of them would have to improve to come close to matching Orb’s accomplishments.

    CONS: The rail post position is by no means a death knell, but it does provide fewer winners at Pimlico than the odds indicate it should, AND only one Preakness winner (Tabasco Cat in 1994) has scored from the rail since 1961

    #2 Goldencents (12-to-1)
    PROS: His Santa Anita Derby is easily among the fastest races any of these have run, including Orb, and the Kentucky Derby was his only bad race. If you chalk that up to some combination of being too close to the pace/not liking the sloppy, sealed track, then he easily fits among these.

    CONS: Regardless of the Kentucky Derby excuses, it’s extremely difficult to bounce back from that kind of performance against similar Grade 1 company, and the same questions surrounding him in the Derby remain here—mainly distance and pace concerns.

    #3 Titletown Five (96-to-1)
    PROS: This is the Lloyd Christmas of the Preakness field in that he’s happy there’s a chance (though it is about 1 in a 100 instead of 1 in a million). A win would be a surprise, but not inconceivable if he takes command from whomever falters on the pace and everyone around him misfires and he just gets too far gone to catch.

    CONS: The only race remotely fast enough came against maidens sprinting at Churchill Downs. Fast paces didn’t help in either the Louisiana Derby or Derby Trial, but just don’t see the right dynamic unfolding for him to get the job done.

    #4 Departing (10-to-1)
    PROS: Getting good (better) at the right time and could peak in Preakness considering connections have pointed toward this race since a wide-trip third in Louisiana Derby behind Revolutionary and Mylute. Won Illinois Derby from post 13 and could get jump on Orb here depending on what that foe needs to do from the rail.

    CONS: The last two races were nice but another move forward will be necessary to contend here, and he might be overbet as most people’s alternative to Orb. He had bullet workouts going into both Louisiana and Illinois Derbys but far more pedestrian drills for this challenge.

    #5 Mylute (12-to-1)
    PROS: Has only won twice, but when he’s on he’s on, as both those wins have come by a combined 13 lengths, and last two races after a poor three-year-old debut have been good.

    CONS: was running “with” Orb late in Derby and could not keep pace and don’t see how that changes in the Preakness. Similarly seemed to have the Louisiana Derby won, but Revolutionary bested him late there as he did in Derby when third (with Normandy Invasion between them).

    #6 Oxbow (20-to-1)
    PROS: Of all the horses close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby, he fared the best, and that kind of tactical command will certainly help in the more compact Preakness field. Only two wins were gate-to-wire but doesn’t seem to want the lead anymore. Maybe here with stablemate Titletown Five supposedly rating?

    CONS: Doesn’t want to win. Looked like the winner in both the Risen Star and Rebel Stakes before not getting the job done in both races. Jockey Gary Stevens even thought to himself ‘for a few seconds” that he might win his fourth Derby, but that didn’t come to pass. Just not the type of horse I want to back in the win spot.

    #7 Will Take Charge (20-to-1)
    PROS: Other than a dreadful Kentucky Jockey Club, seems to fire every time. It’s rarely good enough to win (especially against top-level competition), but you’re going to get a run out of him, as you did in the Derby before he was stopped by Verrazano. Will make a run again here.

    CONS: Interesting to note that best races came closer to the pace, and he actually set the pace when eventually second in the Springboard Mile. All that is to say, he’s too slow for this level of competition, and the big run late is mostly just an illusion. He could end up in the exotics, but isn’t a win candidate for me at the expected price.

    #8 Govenor Charlie (16-to-1)
    PROS: Looked like he could be any kind when rattling off consecutive wins in February-March, including a five-length romp in the Sunland Derby. Both wins came after sitting off the pace and kicking clear after a nice middle move, and that’s the type of trip that could win this—especially if Orb gets too far back early.

    CONS: The Preakness will be his first race in eight weeks and just the fourth of his career, and he’ll need to improve dramatically assuming the other graded stakes winners fire even just a par effort. That’s not impossible for a trainer who’s won this race five times, but all five of those wins did come with horses who started in the Derby.

    #9 Itsmyluckyday (10-to-1)
    PROS: The fastest horse going into the Derby took another step backward when 15th after what started out as a perfect trip. As they turned onto the backside I really thought he could win the race if he had any punch, which he didn’t. Still think his two wins to start his three-year-old season can beat these, but it’s getting increasingly harder to bet on him running back to either of those races based on his last two efforts. From a positive angle standpoint, Johnny V. picks up the mount, and trainer Eddie Plesa fires 21% when racing third off a layoff.

    CONS: Similar to Goldencents, it’s hard to back a horse coming off such a dreadful effort coming right back against similar class. There were questions about his distance limitations going into the Derby, and that race certainly did nothing to dispel them.

    My strategy at this point will be to play Itsmyluckyday across the board (assuming 10-to-1) and key him in exotics underneath Orb, but all that is subject to what happens in the multi-race wagers I play. Good luck!

  • Enter the Preakness exacta matrix

    POSTED May 14, 2013 By Unknown
    Anyone can make a morning line for projected win odds, but making one for exacta will pays takes a little more finesse, though I did take some liberties to make it easier while still providing guidance as to where the money will go in the exacta pool:

     1. Orb is the overwhelming choice to win at 4-to-5 in the top spot (odds account for 21% takeout in the exact pool). He's also the most likely second-place finisher with 24.76% of that pool. It's an interesting take because the Derby winner has 72% of the money in the exacta pool but probably won't even have half the place pool. Thus, betting Orb to place is a much better bet than wheeling him up and down in the exacta.

     2. No surprise that all other horses besides Orb are more likely to finish second than first. Departing is the second choice to win with his price based on exacta will pays at $11.60.

    3. I lumped Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute,  Oxbow, and Will Take Charge together as co-third choices ($16.40) then made Govenor Charlie the eighth choice ($26.40) and Titletown Five the longest shot ($34.80).

    4. The big opinion here is that Departing will be closer in price to the third tier of Derby also rans than to the Derby winner. A chalk-chalk exacta comes back 9-to-1, but Departing on top is a much more robust 21-to-1.

    5. Because the biggest jump is from Orb to Departing and not Departing to the next tier, things really blow up if you get Orb out of the exacta. Regardless of your wagering style, it's an interesting phenomena to note because the multis are probably going to be the same way. Whereas at first it appeared that beating Departing might provide some value if you liked Orb, this shows that if you're willing to bet against Orb, don't let Departing beat you.

    Enjoy!

     

  • Bullet Train Derby Platform presented by Brisnet.com--the 3:18 to Turfway

    POSTED Mar 18, 2013 By Unknown
    While enjoying a French dip sandwich at local post-Keeneland hotspot Parlay Social, Sean Feld mentioned that this weekend's Rebel Stakes did little to clear the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands picture for him.


     In the sense that I'm no more sure now than I was before the Rebel that Itsmyluckyday and Verrazano are the fastest horses and that Mac The Man is the best three-year-old no one who doesn't know me has ever heard of, I agree with Sean.

     This weekend's races are the last of Derby Championship Series Leg 1 (i.e., the "50-point races" or the 50-20-10-5 races), and Mac The Man runs in the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes on Saturday at Turfway. As I told Sean between au jus dips, Mac The Man has to run extremely well to sustain my ranking of him. A troubled second or a sneaky good third won't be enough to have him on the "A" list. I certainly hope he runs well enough not to embarrass him or me, but 2nd between Itsmyluckyday and Verrazano is too lofty of company to keep without a really good win on Saturday.

     That's looking ahead, though, and I still have some parting shots on the Rebel as inspired by Monday morning's #DerbyChat on Twitter.
    About a half-hour later I had to post this because I was clearly alone in my questioning of Oxbow's will to win.
    I'm still skeptical, though. Oxbow doesn't seem like that type that will take a charge. He's getting called for the blocking foul every time.

    As for the Rebel favorite, Super Ninety Nine...
    I didn't love Super Ninety Nine at the expected price because, but I did think he'd show enough to validate his Southwest Stakes performance. He performed so poorly that he dropped not only out of my ten (from an admittedly too-high four slot) but also the third pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which has 23 individual interests.

    And the one thing I'm surprised no one is talking about is that Equibase rated the Rebel as the fastest three-year-old stakes to date, which makes absolutely zero sense to me.

    My best guess is it messed up the variant on what many called a slow, tiring surface (1 1/16 miles in 1:45.18). Brisnet.com gave the race a 101 while Beyer had it at 95. So Brisnet has it as slightly faster than Beyer, but Brisnet hardly has it as a threat for one of the fastest races of the year let alone THE fastest.