• Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jul 20, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    It was a poor weekend of harness racing feature wins for us. However, we have added something extra to the horses-to-watch results below, which deserves everyone’s attention, since the wins, places, shows and exactas have been calculated for your benefit to record total investment data.

    Before any good news, however, we offer a sad story concerning one of the weekend’s features to open the review.

    The Maple Leaf Trot, Mohawk’s feature on July 19, featured a major upset, with superstar Sebastian K beaten a nose by local Intimidate, who was over 30-1. Worse than the fact that we called for an upset but our choice, Mister Herbie, lost, is the story that followed the race on the “sloppy” surface.

    Modern Family, a horse familiar to our blog readers due to our cashing on him in exactas this season with Sebastian K, finished fourth in the race, strolled to the paddock and dropped dead. Reports indicate that the five-year-old simply collapsed. The trotter was owned by his trainer, Daryl Bier and co-owned with Charles Dombeck and Richard Poillucci. Modern Family was a winner of 19 of 51 lifetime starts. At three, Tony Alagna trained him. Bier bought him at four for $110,000.

    As an elder, Modern Family won nine of 16 starts and took a mark of 1:51 at the Meadowlands with his “Cutler” elim win. The week before, he knocked off some of the best four-year-olds in the $100,000 Meadowlands Maturity. In 2014, Modern Family had six wins, six places and one show in 15 starts. Three of those second-place finishes had come at the hands of Sebastian K, all projected cold to our readers. His lifetime bankroll was $575,925. We offer our condolences to the connections.

    In the wake of that tragedy, losing a few bucks this weekend seems moot. Still, here is the damage: On the Hambletonian Trail blog, we gave you a non-surprising winner in one Canadian Breeders Championships (CBC) soph-colt trot—Harper Blue Chip ($2.70, $2.20, $2.10). In the second, there was no success defeating Nuncio. Then, at the Meadowlands’ Reynolds soph-colt trot, we were second with 6-1 Datsyuk ($2.40, $2.10) to the obvious Trixton (the exacta paid $4.40).

    We share the results of our soph-trot analysis’ here with our weekly update. The Hambletonian Trail comes to you in cooperation with TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society. You can read the recap race stories and data on the history of the August classics at the society’s archives. Soon it will be Hambletonian day. We hope to be at the Meadowlands for the spectacular program and the first Hambo at the new facility.

    Friday at the Meadowlands we suggested the favorite, Handover Belle ($4, $4 ok, $2.10) in the first leg of the Ima Lula (see paragraph on Perfect Alliance in “News” below).

    The Adios elims were strewn with favorites, one which we called. Lets Drink On It ($3.20, $2.40, $2.20) won the second elim, while we were second with Bushwacker ($5.60, $3.60) in another.

    At Northfield in the Battle of Lake Erie we were second with our tied-first-choice Night Pro ($4.60, $3.80) while Apprentice Hanover finished off the board.

    Our third choice finished third in the Lawrence Sheppard Final at Yonkers, doing so at 83-1. Parklane Eagle paid $14.20.

    In the CBC soph-colt paces at Mohawk, we had only a third with Victor Bayama ($5.90).

    TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.

    H2W RESULTS

    For the first time in this blog, we offer the stats for the H2W’s past week. We do not suggest you play any or all of the horses we list weekly; the list suggests live horses for which you may want to use in any wager of your choice. However, now and again we do the math to see how the list would result if every horse was played across the board ($6) and every horse was boxed in an exacta with the public choice ($4), using a $2-base bet.

    This week, inventory of such play reveals that the total cost would have been $220. The return would have been $276.20. That is a profit of $56.20 (25%).

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Astarisontheway, $15.20, $5.80, $4.60, Hoosier
    Talbot Redneck, $11.20, $4.80, $3.40, Ocean
    Donna Party, $9.80, $3.60, $2.60, Philadelphia
    Fox Valley Shannon, $9.20, $3, $2.80, Scarborough
    Stage It Right, $5.60, $3, $2.40, Yonkers
    The Wizard Of Odz, $4.40, $3, $2.60, Running Aces
    Luck Be Withyou, $2.80, $2.10, $2.10 ok, Pocono
    Dancin Yankee, $2.80, $2.10, $2.10 ok, Pocono

    Seconds

    Midas Blue Chip, $6.20, $3.70 (Exacta $39.20), Vernon
    Chocouture, $5.60, $3.20 (Exacta $35.00), Vernon
    Bunkerhill Bill, $3.80, $2.60 (Exacta $17), Running Aces
    Carson City Road, $3.30, $2.70 (Exacta $19.40), Buffalo
    A Major Impuse, $2.80, $2.10
    Swingin Beauty, $2.80, Philadelphia
    Mattacardle, $2.40, $2.20, Meadows

    Thirds

    King William, $5, Buffalo
    Malak Uswaad N, $4.20, Philadelphia
    Sir Lehigh Z Tam, $3, Yonkers
    Eat Your Enemy, $2.20, Scarborough

    News And Notes

    Drivers on a win skein during a single program often make the headlines but rarely prove they are worth the support of bettors. Ronnie Wrenn, Jr. won nine of the 15 races on July 16 at Northfield Park. The raw number sounds impressive but once again we have a case where following a driver’s streak is rarely the road to riches for a bettor.

    Ronnie’s win prices on the nine wins (high to low) were $6.80, $6.40, $5.00, $4.60, $4.00, $3.00, $3.00, $2.40 and $2.20. He had a drive in all 15 races, losing six. It would have cost a player $30 (base price, $2 a bet), to cover all of his rides. His total win pay off was $37.40, leaving the Wrenn supporter with a profit of $7.40. To make a comparison on the matter of playing drivers as your main handicapping element, consider the Keith Kash, Jr. supporter. On the night Wrenn won nine, Kash won a single race (he drove 11 horses). His sole winner paid $123.80. It coast a Keith Kash bettor $22 to make a profit of $101.80. Once again, we rest our case.

    Perfect Alliance won her first 11 races this year and then there was a kaboom. She finished seventh in the third round of the Miss Versatility Series on July 12 at the Meadowlands. Afterward, it was discovered she bled, and she scoped sick. She was put on Lasix in July 18’s $20,000 first round of the Ima Lula Series for four-year-old female trotters at the Meadowlands (see above, where we won with Handover Belle). She finished sixth in the field of six, never making any threatening moves. Julie Miller trains perfect Alliance. The second round of the Ima Lula is July 25 and the $55,000 estimated final is Hambletonian day, Aug. 2, at the Meadowlands. We’ll be inquiring as to the mare’s health and report as soon as facts are public.

    Casie Coleman, Canada’s five-time trainer of the year, nearly quit the game at the height of her career, according to a report from Standardbred Canada. The 33-year-old’s students have won many of the sport’s biggest races but she says she nearly walked away from the game at the height of her career. Despite her success, her stable was too big, her health was suffering and she says she was miserable.

    “There were times I would say ‘I’ve had enough, I want to get out. I don’t like it.’ I didn’t like going to the barn,” she said. Regardless of what happens on the track, Coleman says her biggest victory came this winter when she lost 57 pounds and worked herself into peak shape in Florida as part of a number of major life changes. “I hired a personal trainer. I worked with him all winter. Basically, I was doing anywhere from two to four hours every single day. I never took a day off,” she said. “The diet thing was a huge. All I drink is water and green tea now, whereas before I would drink about four coffees a day, Grey Goose and Sprite …  I was drinking about 3,000 calories a day, I figured out. Now, all I have is a thousand calories a day …  I couldn’t be any happier. I’m glad I’ve finally seen how out of shape I was and I wasn’t training my own horses and a million different things that I was doing wrong. I got them all corrected and back on the right path now … I feel awesome.” 

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye ~ For more Thom Pye cartoons and products, click here

  • The Difference Between Probability & Profitability

    POSTED Jul 19, 2014 By Derek Simon
    If there is one mistake that I see both new and veteran handicappers make time and time again it is confusing probability with profitability — often in very inconsistent and haphazard ways.

    For instance, most bettors know that the post-time favorite wins approximately 1/3 of the time, making it a highly predictive factor. In fact, we can measure just how predictive by employing “impact values,” which were explained by Dr. William Quirin in his masterful work “Winning at the Races.”

    Impact values, or IVs, are calculated by “dividing the percentage of winners with a given characteristic by the percentage of starters with that characteristic,” Dr. Quirin explained.

    “An IV of 1.00 means that horses with a specific characteristic have won no more and no less than their fair share of races,” the good doctor concluded. Similarly, an IV greater than 1.00 denotes that a particular factor is producing more than its fair share of winners, while an IV below 1.00 means that it is producing less than its fair share.

    With that in mind, take a peek at the digits I obtained in an examination of 14,505 races featuring a sole betting favorite (no entries):

    Winners: 5,409
    Winners: 2,017
    Win Rate: 37.3%
    IV: 2.76

    What this means is that the post-time favorite can be expected to win 2.76 times more often than random chance would dictate — which is great.

    However, before we break out the top-shelf pork rinds and don our party hats, let me introduce another metric — one that I came up with several years ago called the odds-based impact value, or OBIV.

    The OBIV is based, not on field size, but on the average odds of the horses meeting the criteria of the study. The advantage of such an approach is that it more accurately assesses the factor being tested (provided the factor is not odds) by using an established and highly predictive methodology instead of random chance to determine the expected win rate.


    Note: The reason the “normal” range is 0.80-0.85 is to account for the various straight takeout rates and breakage points.

    So, harkening back to our study above, we find that post-time favorites produce an OBIV of 0.81 — which helps to explain why, despite a high IV, the ROI on such steeds is negative to the tune of about 16 cents on the dollar.

    The OBIV also explains why merely seeking high-IV, i.e. obvious, factors never makes money in the real world — although many handicapping gurus have advocated just that.

    Tim Maas, author of “Overlay Handicapping,” took it one step further: He used a variety of IV values to produce a fair odds line. Now, before I illustrate the folly of this, I want to credit Maas for at least attempting to use disconnected, or independent, variables in his method (this is another area that gets horse players into trouble — evaluating dependent variables as though they are independent, e.g. speed and form).

    Among the factors that Maas obtained IV value for were Quirin speed points and average earnings per start. To keep this demonstration simple, I will provide my own IVs for specific subsets of these factors — mainly, I will look at horses with at least eight Quirin speed points and horses with the highest average earnings per start in the field:

    * At least 8 Quirin speed points

    Number: 5,068
    Winners: 878
    Win Rate: 17.3%
    IV: 1.31
    OBIV: 0.83

    * Highest earnings per start in the field
    * (If the horse had fewer than five starts this year, the last two racing years were used)

    Number: 13,069
    Winners: 3,331
    Win Rate: 25.5%
    IV: 1.91
    OBIV: 0.83

    By combining these two factors in a makeshift system, we would expect an IV of approximately 2.50 (using Maas’ technique of multiplying the individual Ivs):

    * At least 8 Quirin speed points
    * Highest earnings per start in the field
    * (If the horse had fewer than five starts this year, the last two racing years were used)

    Number: 841
    Winners: 248
    Win Rate: 29.5%
    IV: 2.12
    OBIV: 0.87

    On the positive side, the numbers are vastly improved from those for each individual factor — even the OBIV is nominally better. However, they’re still not good enough to show a profit. In fact, the $2 net return of $1.67 (-16.5% ROI) is less than the $2 net return for post-time favorites ($1.68).

    Ouch. Two highly predictive factors and they produce more red ink than simply watching the tote board and playing the post-time favorite.

    And the situation doesn’t get any better when one asks for minimum odds (as Maas did by insisting on a “fair” price) — in fact it gets worse:

    * At least 8 Quirin speed points
    * Highest earnings per start in the field
    * (If the horse had fewer than five starts this year, the last two racing years were used)
    * Odds of 3-1 or greater.

    Number: 372
    Winners: 56
    Win Rate: 15.1%
    IV: 1.15
    OBIV: 0.87

    Of course, what all this tells us is that, in order to make money as opposed to just cashing tickets at the racetrack, one must look for unique factors and/or use known factors in unique ways.
    There is a difference between what is predictable and what is profitable.

  • Frosh, Soph And Aged Battles Adorn Weekend Action

    POSTED Jul 16, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    The Adios was traditionally a post-Hambletonian affair, refocusing upon the glamour-boy pacers after the severe concentration of glamour-boy trotters. In the new millennium, the Adios is part of August’s overture of harness highlights and unlike its old place on the stakes calendar, the Adios absentees are usually the best of the division.

    The 2014 Adios presents a strict, second-tier cast in the soph-colt pacing division, with the two giants, JK Endofanera and Hes Watching, passing. Also absent are Always B Miki, Doo Wop Hanover, Western Vintage, Lyonssomewhere, Tellitlikeitis and Sometimes Said, leaving the elims looking a lot like the ad hoc consolation for the Meadowlands Pace. It is no wonder that the morning-line favorite is McWicked.

    The good news is that all three Adios elims may be good betting races, maybe better than the July 26 final. So we will dig into them in this blog, looking for some generous returns on our plays.

    Older pacers and trotters will tangle in Ohio and Ontario with the Battle of Lake Erie at Northfield and the Maple Leaf Trot at Mohawk. Frosh class is displayed at Yonkers in the Lawrence Sheppard Final and the first leg of the Ima Lula features four-year-old mare trotters at the Meadowlands.

    Canadian Breeders Championships (CBC) for pacers at Mohawk are covered below, while those for trotters and the Reynolds is covered in our spin-off blog, the Hambletonian Trail. Check it out by clicking here.

    Overnight action culminates in our horses-to-watch list (H2W), where our suggested contenders have been mighty across-the-board plays, with many exorbitant place and show prices.

    Weekdays, check out the TwinSpires-Hoosier perks for players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    Follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get any and all late-breaking information on racing events and betting challenges that transpire between the publications of the two TwinSpires harness racing blogs.

    ‘Sheppard’ Flock

    Saturday night, July 19, the $125,000 Lawrence B. Sheppard Pace Final for two-year-old colt-and-gelding pacers highlights Yonkers’ program. Leading the field of eight are the elim winners In the Arsenal and Cartoon Daddy. They are joined by Byby Landon, Mystical Pacer, Rock N Roll World, Lone Survivor, Perfect Eagle and Parklane Eagle.

    Mystical Pacer draws our interest from a tough outside trip in his elim that still got him third. “Arsenal” beat Byby Landon on getting the wood in an early duel. “Mystical” has the goods to take this event where only two colts are not maidens (Arsenal and “Cartoon”). He should be a decent price, one you may pump up in exactas by using Byby Landon (how the fans hate the 8 hole) and Parklane Eagle (from the productive sire of froshes, Somebeachsomewhere).

    The K Factor

    The $603,000 Maple Leaf Trot Final defies nine older trotters to go faster than Sebastian K. That is the end of the conversation. This season, Ake Svanstedt’s monster trotter has devoured the division and won faster than any trotter in the history of the sport. He has beaten the likes of the “Maple” field, proving Mohawk was not a problem (the elim was his first race in Canada). So now what do handicappers do? Perhaps some thoughts from a trainer may help punters lean away from Ake’s stallion.

    Rod Hughes, whose horses have won the Maple three times, said he doesn’t think “K” has been “in deep enough” to be considered a lock in any race. Hughes told local journalists that K’s racing without shoes may hamper his winning two weeks in a row.
    Hughes likes Market Share and Mister Herbie better than K this week. “Herbie” won this race in 2012 in 1:50.4, faster than K went last week on this surface. Hughes said it is difficult to go faster than Herbie went winning unless it is a very warm night.
    Why not take Hughes’ analysis? After all, his trotter, San Pail, when he was at his best, beat big European trotters in Canada. Plus, we have been on the side of Herbie many times; he is a top trotter and he is on his home field. So let’s look for the upset, not with Market Share, with Herbie.

    Here is the field for the $603,000 Maple Leaf Trot in post position order: Sebastian K, Market Share, Intimidate, Archangel, Wishing Stone, Mister Herbie, Creatine, Undercover Strike, Flanagan Memory, Modern Family.

    Hello Adios Week

    The 48th edition of the $600,000 (est.) Delvin Miller Adios Pace for the Orchids is the focus of a great stakes program on July 26 and an end to a great Grand Circuit week of racing at the Meadows; great for bettors. We will be posting various wagering suggestions through the week on social media sites. Meanwhile, July 19, three Adios elimination divisions race to determine the field for the traditional classic.

    Each Adios elim is worth $50,000 and six colts start in each. In the first elim we are going to go with Bushwacker, who was fourth in the “Pace” consolation and who offers a price against the two Ron Burke probable public choices. In the second elim, Lets Drink On It finally has a shot to win now that he steps down into the second tier of the division’s stakes group. In the last elim, McWicked will be on a tear to take this wire to wire as a prohibitive favorite. If he has to duel with Stevensville or At Press Time, then Brioni, third in the Pace consolation last week, could take him down. He certainly should be included in any McWicked exotics you choose.

    Ohio Battleground

    This year, “Battle” night at Northfield carries total purses of $554,500. The 15-race program boasts an impressive undercard, featuring nine $40,000 divisions of Ohio Sires Stakes for two- and three-year-old colt pacers and trotters.

    Foiled Again has drawn post 7 in July 19’s $150,000 Battle of Lake Erie. Of course, he has been named the 3-1 morning-line favorite. Foiled Again makes his sixth appearance in the event and he is aiming to become the first horse in Northfield Park history to win this event three times. Ron Burke, who also sends out Clear Vision, trains Foiled Again. Also among the battlers are Night Pro, Beach Memories, Bolt The Duer, Fool Me Once, Twilight Bonfire and Apprentice Hanover.

    In thick but getting the rail and on a skein, is Night Pro. He is an Indiana Sires Stakes champ coming into the Battle, against the toughest foes he has ever faced, looking for his seventh-straight win. Apprentice Hanover will be more ignored than necessary because he leaves from post 8. His morning line is 10-1 compared to Night Pro’s 4-1. That’s too much just for being on the outside, especially with too much speed on top. Apprentice Hanover should offer a better chance than his price and these two could be the last two standing at the wire for the upset exacta.

    Ima Lula

    A lone division kicks off the Ima Lula series on Friday night at the Meadowlands, compiled of six four-year-old mares, two of which entering off of a showdown with Bee A Magician in the Miss Versatility. One of them is Perfect Alliance, who debuted off of a month layoff last week. She finished seventh and adds lasix for this outing. The other being Handover Belle, the more interesting of the two.

    CBC Pacers

    For six digits in each division, soph-colt-and-filly pacers bred in Ontario race for the CBC championships.

    The colts are the first to contest, with 2013 Metro winner Boomboom Ballykeel coming in off of a victory in the elimination. Yet, favored in that elim was Victor Bayama, who took an off-the-pace approach and finished third. When he debuted in late June, he won easily by 3 lengths in the Ontario Sires Stakes (ONSS) at 6-1. From post 10, he has the speed to be put into the mix, which seems to be the best approach in this race as an off-the-pace effort might include a barrage of traffic.

    Lady Shadow, who will be heavily bet off of a 1:49.1 victory in her elim, highlights the filly final. With a strong on-the-lead type in the field, the only way to beat her would be with a stalker. Another elimination winner, My Secret Belle, fits the condition perfectly. She seems to be driven similarly in stakes races, riding the cones to victory in an ONSS division and doing so in her elimination as the favorite. With Joe Hudon Jr. driving, that will likely inflate her value as we look for her to draft to victory. An outside contender, Nefertiti Bluechip may be able to topple thm all. “Nefertiti” was a sharp third in her elimination at 32-1 and post 9 should be a plus in the stretch since she could stay out of trouble and wallow by speed retarding in the stretch.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Buffalo
    7/19/14, Larrys Dream R3; King William R3; +Sand Savage R5; Carson City Road R10; Outoftexas R10

    Hoosier
    7/19/14, +Astarisontheway R2

    Meadowlands
    7/19/14, My QP Doll R10

    Meadows
    7/18/14, Mattacardle R7
    7/19/14, +Bootswiththefur R13

    Ocean
    7/18/14, A Major Impulse R1; +Twentysix-fiftytwo R8
    7/19/14, +Talbot Redneck R6

    Philadelphia
    11/18/14, Donna Party R1; Swinging Beauty R6
    11/19/14, Malak Uswaad N R11

    Pocono
    7/19/14, Black Hat R1; +Milliondollartouch R1; Luck Be Withyou R4; Sky Desperado R7; Dancin Yankee R10

    Running Aces
    7/19/14, Bunkerhill Bill R1; +The Wizared of Odz R2; +Howdoidreamwithoutu R6; +Flukie Flight R9

    Saratoga
    7/19/14, +Grab A Crab R8

    Scarborough
    7/17/14, Fox Valley Shannon R1; Eat Your Enemy R5

    Scioto
    7/17/14, +Touch And Go R9

    Vernon
    7/17/14, +Chocouture R3; Midas Blue Chip R5

    Yonkers
    7/17/14, +Take The Edge Off R6; Stage It Right R11
    7/18/14, Amigo Ranger R8; Sir Lehigh Z Tam R10
    7/21/14, +Greystone Cash R3

     Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.     



  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jul 13, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    Let’s begin this week’s review with something quite amazing. It comes from the Hambletonian Trail blog, where we covered and won both of the soph trots offered at the Meadowlands on July 12. Shake It Cerry, the filly we have been applauding at two and now at three, was our choice in the Del Miller Memorial. We assumed she would be the choice of most bettors and perhaps a prohibitive favorite. Wrong! Shake It Cerry went off and won at an astounding 7-2 ($9.60, $4.60, $2.60). Our second choice followed her over the wire at 5-2—Heaven’s Door ($4, $2.40) completed an exacta worth $30.80, also a terrific gift.

    Everyone was on board for the soph-colt trot winner, Father Patrick ($2.80, $2.20, $2.10), in the Stanley Dancer. No exotics here, as both of our possible exacta partners broke and were eliminated from competition.

    We share the results of our soph-trot analysis’ here with our weekly update. The Hambletonian Trail comes to you in cooperation with TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society. You can read the recap race stories and data on the history of the August classics at the society’s archives. It is less than a month away until Hambletonian day. We hope to be at the Meadowlands for the spectacular program and the first Hambo at the new facility.

    Also in the winning column, we had a mild victory with the frosh stakes as Artspeck won a colt pace ($3.40, $2.80, $2.40).

    Stepping back a moment to July 11 at Mohawk, We gave you the chalk in a Maple Leaf Trot elim and it won—Sebastian K ($2.10 n/p n/s wagering). The exacta was playable, however, and our second choice, Creatine completed the $6.60 combo.

    Back to Saturday, we pick up the pieces in the stakes at the Meadowlands.

    We cannot report success with the big feature of the weekend because Hes Watching won the Meadowlands Pace, finally gaining respect from his doubters, of which we were some. Our third choice, Always Be Miki, came in second ($5.80, $4.60). The race went as we suggested it might, however, Hes Watching was in the spot where we suspected our choice, JK Endofanera would be in late stretch. The “Pace” did look a lot like the North America Cup, especially with another one of our choices, Lyonssomewhere, soaring to the lead as he did in the “Cup” and cutting breakneck fractions—:25.3, :53.2, 1:20.3. “JK” was first over into the speedy turn of the mid two panels, and it was Hes Watching that zoomed off the pace late to win (1:46.2). The top three finishers were fifth, ninth and sixth, respectively, in the first quarter. Hes Watching was the second choice at 2-1.

    In the ad hoc Pace consolation, we were third with Brioni ($6.20). In the “Haughton,” Captaintreacherous was third ($3), ruining our boxed exacta and the probable winner, Sweet Lou, won ($4, $3, $2.40). The only other pay horse was in the Miss Versatility, as Bee A Magician won as the public heroine and our choice, D’Orsay finished third ($10.20).

    Speaking of huge place and show prices, peruse the horses-to-watch (H2W) list below, where our live contenders rolled out some big numbers across the board. There are no typos in the prices!

    TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.

    H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Too Shy, $25.10, $7.80, $4.80 (Exacta $54.70), Mohawk
    FB Seelster, $23.60, $12.60, $5.90, Buffalo
    Nifty Prescott, $21.20, $9.70, $6.50, Buffalo
    I Do Hanover, $14.20, $5.60, $3.20 (Exacta $30), Vernon
    Emmasphere, $6.20, $3.60, $3), Running Aces
    Morwyn Hanover, $4.80, $3.80, $3), Running Aces
    Cheryl Leigh, $2.80, $2.20, $2.60 ok, Scarborough

    Seconds

    Chrome Cruiser, $53.80, $43.20, Pocono
    Captain John Henry, $6, $5.80, Hoosier
    Kaliska, $4.50, $3.40, Tioga
    Zinthruthehall, $4.10, $2.80, Buffalo

    Thirds

    Northern Obsession, $11, Tioga
    Sky Deperado, $5, Pocono
    The Wizard Of Odz, $3.20, Running Aces
    OK Amelia, $2.60, Ocean
    Summertime Lea, $2.50, Yonkers
    Bullseye, $2.20, Scarborough

    News And Notes

    Sportswriter was never a huge favorite of this department at two and did not impress us as he was promoted to be a division leader at three, even though he went zooming to win the North America Cup. But when he lost the Meadowlands Pace in a terrible performance we were convinced he would never be as sharp as Rock N Roll Heaven, who we rightfully made king of the division in 2010 and covered as he scourged the group all the way through the Breeders Crown finals.

    Giving the devil his due, though, Sportswriter’s first crop (he stands in Canada) has hit the track with speed and success. Sportswriter was best at two, so it remains to be seen if his progeny can maintain their frosh shines as sophomores. On July 11, Sportswriter’s frosh fillies won all three divisions of the Ontario Sires Stakes (ONSS) Gold Series at Mohawk. Southwind Mischief (1:54), trained by Casie Coleman, who was also Sportswriter’s conditioner, won the first $70,000 split; Blake MacIntosh’s Sports Chic took the second (1:54.2); and Pop Writer (1:54.3) won the third for trainer Tony Alagna. We’ll be keeping an eye on the stallion’s average earnings and his colts in ONSS action and how they fare among all North American babies.

    Foiled Again will try for his third win in the Battle of Lake Erie when the event is presented on July 19 at Northfield Park. The sport’s highest earner, now 10, should face familiar foes, also nominated—Bolt The Duer, Clear Vision, Heston Blue Chip and Michaels Power to name four. Foiled Again won the event in 2009 and 2011. He is trained by Ron Burke and won over $6.3 million. We’ll analyze the race in our July 17 blog.

    Kawartha Downs will celebrates its 42nd anniversary on July 19, featuring the $12,500 Billyjojimbob Memorial Trot. The program will include 12 races with 25 percent higher purses than on a regular race card. The Billyjojimbob Memorial Trot celebrates a great trotter who began his career at Kawartha and went on to become the only Canadian horse to win the prestigious Elitlopp in Sweden in addition to the Breeders Crown.

    Contemporary mare pacing great and World Champion Miss Easy is dead at 26. Miss Easy was a $30,000 a yearling broken and trained by Bruce Nickells. In 1990 she was voted frosh pacing filly of the year. She won 15 of 17 starts and earned more than $1 million. In 1991, she was voted soph pacing filly of the year. She won 10 of 15 starts, earned $648,700 and concluded her racing career with earnings of more than $1.7 million. Unfortunately her racing success did not translate in the breeding shed. As a broodmare she did not produce quality racehorses. Her lack of production found her being offered for sale in 2002 as a barren broodmare. Jim Simpson, Dr. Bridgette Jablonsky and Murray Brown of Hanover Shoe Farms decided Hanover would purchase her and she would be guaranteed a home as a retired mare.

    As fate would have it, when booking season came along Dr. Jablonsky suggested that Miss Easy be booked along with the rest of Hanover’s active mares and she subsequently produced eight foals for Hanover, bringing a total of $220,500. She never became a great producer but she spent her remaining years enjoying the good life that she had earned and deserved. Miss Easy was laid to rest in the farm's cemetery opposite its main entrance.

    John Gilmour, 76, a Monticello Raceway mainstay horseman for more than 47 years, is dead. Mr. Gilmour’s record speaks for itself. It spanned six decades, in which he earned 4,492 winners as a driver in years when the racing seasons were short and driving at two tracks in one day wasn’t an option. John was one of the famous Gilmour brothers, William (Buddy), George and Lloyd, who together accounted for more than 14,250 driving victories. For John, Monticello had been home since the early 1960s although he began his career at Buffalo Raceway and Batavia Downs, two tracks near his hometown of Lucan, Ontario.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye ~ For more Thom Pye cartoons and products, visit  PYESITE

  • The Truth About Progression Betting

    POSTED Jul 11, 2014 By Derek Simon
    Before the more scholarly handicapping authors like Tom Ainslie, Andrew Beyer and Steve Davidowitz came along in the 1970s and 1980s, most racing literature featured two prevailing qualities:

    1) It was poorly written.
    2) It was gobbledygook, often espousing theories only slightly crazier than those proffered by the Flat Earth Society.

    Take, for example, a recent gem I came across entitled “Picking the Winners with Systology.” Published in 1933, “Picking Winners with Systology” is a compilation of selection and betting methods that, according to the (wisely) unnamed author or authors, “fills and completes the cycle of information which has long been a pressing want of turf players.”

    “Using any one of the eight workable and tested systems contained herein, players may be sure that only misfortune and the failure of horseflesh and blood to do that which could be confidently expected and figured, will result in a loss,” the book claims.

    So, in other words, if you lose, blame the horse.

    Still, although “Picking Winners with Systology” is rife with crazy notions that the more sophisticated players of today could easily spot — how about a parallel speed chart that equates five furlongs in 56 seconds with six furlongs in 1:09? — the book also contains some ideas that aren’t as easily dismissed (although they should be).

    I fear that far too many bettors still believe that progression methods actually work… because, theoretically, they do.

    For instance, the Quadru Methods detailed in “Picking Winners with Systology” combine several fairly simple and straightforward selection approaches — none of which are profitable, by the way — with a well-known progression betting system.

    “Play is based upon the sum necessary to recoup losses and show profits. If the choices in three races have lost, the sum lost, plus profits sought, are added together and the player wagers enough to bring back that total. Thus, if the player had lost $12 on three previous races and wishes to show a profit of $10, he would wager $6, presuming that his choice in the fourth race was quoted at odds of 4 to 1,” the book notes.

    On the subject of odds, the player is warned that he “should never back a horse at less than even money.” (Presumably, this is to keep the amount wagered in check.)

    So, with all this in mind, I decided to run a simple test.

    Using my database of more than 14,000 races run during 2012-13, I first looked at the stats on sole favorites (no entries or ties) that went to post at even odds or greater. I chose race favorites for my test for two reasons: 1) They win more often than most — if not all — one-factor methods on the planet, thereby providing the consistency that progression betting systems need; and 2) They produce an ROI similar to, if not in excess of, what the methods outlined in the book can achieve.

    SOLE FAVORITES AT EVEN ODDS OR GREATER

    Number: 10,451
    Winners: 3,303
    Win Rate: 31.6%
    $2 Net Return: $1.66
    ROI: -17.01%

    Now comes the fun part: Using the same horses listed above, I sought to make a profit of $10 per race. If I lost, the $10 was added to the amount wagered, along with another $10 in desired profits. All bets were rounded down to the nearest dollar and, of course, the $2 minimum bet was always observed.

    The overall results were, well, fantastic. As I mentioned previously, in theory, progression betting works. After 10,451 bets, profits stood at $99,808.70 — a sizable chunk of change.

    However, before you rush to cash out your 401(k) and start betting progressively on favorites, take a stab at what the maximum wager amount in this sequence of 10,451 bets was?

    If you guessed $403,080, give yourself a gold star and move to the head of the class.

    And it gets worse.

    After accumulating a little over $39K in profits in 4,265 races, the wheels came off, as 23 straight losses led to a capital deficit of — are you sitting down? — $726,242.65. Add that to the subsequent $403,080 bet to recoup profit and losses and it becomes apparent (at least to those with a calculator) that one would have needed a bankroll in excess of $1.1 million to proceed with this progression.

    What’s more, my test doesn’t even begin to address what a $403K bet would do to the pools at most racetracks in the country. In fact, in a comical twist, the horse that broke the 23-race skid in my test was Gin Shot and he won the 7th race at Mt. Pleasant Meadows, a track that no longer exists.

    There was $456 in the win, place and show pools combined.

    So, the next time you read about a progression betting system guaranteed to show profits, go search for Bigfoot or the Loch Ness monster instead. It’ll be about as fruitful — not to mention a whole lot less expensive.