• The 'Future' is Now

    POSTED Feb 16, 2011
    This weekend marks the debut of the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1). The pari-mutuel bet, which has been offered since 1999, runs from Feb. 18-20 and provides punters with the opportunity to lock in some very attractive prices on potential Derby starters. The pool consists of 24 wagering interests — 23 individual steeds and the mutuel field, which is comprised of all the remaining three-year-olds in training. In the past 12 years, five “field” horses from Pool 1 have gone on to wear the roses, good for a 57.5 percent return on investment (ROI).


    (click on image to enlarge)

    *Member of the mutuel field.

    Below is a look at some of the horses I’ve got my eye on:

    137th Kentucky Derby
    Brisnet Speed Rating Par: 107
    Median Late Speed Ration (LSR): -7
    (click on images below to enlarge)



    Comments: There are several things to like about this guy, starting with his ability to gain ground on the turn, which he demonstrated in his lifetime bow at Remington Park and, again, on Jan. 15 at Oaklawn Park.

    Best LSR: -2
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)


    Comments: Son of A.P. Indy earned a -12 early speed ration (ESR) in his first Kentucky route and then, reminiscent of Super Saver, he improved greatly in his second tour of Churchill Downs on Oct. 31, when he rated off a slow pace and garnered a -1 LSR. Trainer Todd Pletcher broke his losing skein last year, is it Steve Asmussen’s turn this year?

    Best LSR: -1
    Fair Odds: 40-1

    Comments: Right now, he’s not as good as some of the other contenders but Beamer appears to be headed in the right direction and could be at his peak come the first Saturday in May.

    Best LSR: -8
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)


    Comments: Sure, the Beyer Boys seem to think he’s a little slow, but the way Super Saver’s little brother won in Florida convinced me that he’s a talent to be reckoned with.

    Best LSR: -3
    Fair Odds: 25-1


    Comments: Yeah, I know, the Peter Miller trainee has already accumulated 11 lifetime starts — the last Derby winner to have raced more prior to the first Saturday in May was Charismatic in 1999 — and, true, “Comma” didn’t exactly look like a champion in his sophomore debut, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. The son of Bwana Charlie (true, that’s another negative) clearly needed his last race and he has a nice blend of early and late speed. Plus, some of his efforts as a two-year-old were simply spectacular.

    Best LSR: -6 (AWS)
    Fair Odds: 15-1


    Comments: In my mind, this lightly-raced colt still has a ton to prove — remember, winning the Kentucky Derby isn’t necessarily about talent — but, at the very least, one can be relatively confident that Dialed In will be in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 7 (barring injury). Still, I think this guy is very likely to be an underlay in this weekend’s pool.

    Best LSR: -6
    Fair Odds: 20-1


    Comments: He deserves respect if only for his consistency.

    Best LSR: -8
    Fair Odds: 30-1


    Comments: Very similar to Gourmet Dinner in some respects; his solid effort in the CashCall Futurity buys him a little more time on the contender’s list.

    Best LSR: -3 (AWS)
    Fair Odds: 30-1


    Comments: Son of Smoke Glacken has some distance questions to answer and he needs to prove he can come off the pace, but he’s got some things to like — most notably a Hall of Fame trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer).

    Best LSR: +3* (AWS)
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)
    *Rated on an easy lead (-1 ESR)


    Comments: Jaycito’s Norfolk win was very impressive, making him a fringe contender for the Run for the Roses.

    Best LSR: -2 (AWS)
    Fair Odds: 50-1


    Comments: He’s been the easiest of winners in each of his two career starts, but he’s very light on seasoning and is almost sure to be a pool underlay if he captures the Risen Star as expected.

    Best LSR: +1
    Fair Odds: 20-1


    Comments: Out of 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch, Monzon looked great capturing the Count Fleet and then, not surprisingly, regressed in the Sam F. Davis. He hinted at ability as a juvenile and will be interesting to watch going forward.

    Best LSR: -3
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)


    Comments: If this horse can learn to come off the pace — a big “if,” to be sure — he could be a factor at Churchill Downs.

    Best LSR: +1*
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)
    *Set slow pace (-1 ESR)


    Comments: Given that Pluck is owned by Team Valor, an aggressive ownership group, I would think that he’ll at least be given a shot on the main track at some point.

    Best LSR: +2 (turf)
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)


    Comments: His breeding is terrible for a horse seeking to go 10 furlongs — assuming that the son of Pomeroy is, in fact, bluegrass bound. That said, the sophomore gelding has talent and deserves some consideration.

    Best LSR: +3*
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)
    *Rated on a very slow pace (+4 ESR)


    Comments: NY-bred has steadily progressed since breaking his maiden in an off-the-turf affair at Aqueduct on Nov. 6.

    Best LSR: -2
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)


    Comments: My “sleeper” pick among all of this year’s potential Derby contenders, Sherriff Cogburn has yet to be challenged in two lifetime starts and he has earned some excellent pace figures as well. The question is, where is he… and is he even on the Derby trail?

    Best LSR: 0 (zero)
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)


    Comments: I can’t say he looks like a potential Derby winner at this point, but he does look like the type that could easily hit the board; needs to demonstrate he can handle dirt.

    Best LSR: -6 (AWS)
    Fair Odds: 40-1


    Comments: Kiaran McLaughlin protégé is very talented, as witnessed by his stellar performances on both dirt and grass. He’s also got tactical speed and a fantastic late kick. What’s more the 108 Brisnet speed figure he earned in his last start — a romping allowance tally — exceeds the Derby par… and it’s only February.

    Best LSR: -3*
    Fair Odds: 25-1
    *Rated on a slow pace (-1 ESR)


    Comments: His only poor performance came in the Delta Downs Jackpot over a bullring that many horses have difficulty adjusting to. Sweet Ducky showed ability as a two-year-old and has every right to move forward at age three.

    Best LSR: -2
    Fair Odds: 30-1


    Comments: Had trouble in his stakes debut when fourth behind Sweet Ducky in the Garden State Stakes and then blew away a decent field in the Display at Woodbine. Son of Tiznow is the kind of horse that could get lost in the shuffle, but he’s one that sharp players will definitely want to keep on the radar screen.

    Best LSR: -3 (AWS)
    Fair Odds: 30-1


    Comments: From the standpoint of talent, connections and conditioning as a two-year-old, this guy looks like a prime Kentucky contender, but his performance in the Remsen gives me pause. That race was To Honor And Serve’s first around two turns and produced an LSR of –10 — not bad, but somewhat low when compared to some of his main could-be Derby rivals. Whether or not the Bill Mott trainee learns to come off the pace will ultimately decide his fate, I believe.

    Best LSR: +1*
    Fair Odds: 15-1
    *Set a very slow pace (+2 ESR)


    Comments: Another very talented “other” horse that merits a long look. His maiden breaker at Laurel on Nov. 25 was one for the ages and his Brisnet speed figures continue to show steady upward progress.

    Best LSR: -1
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)


    Comments: I’ve noted before that Uncle Mo’s debut was among the best I’ve ever seen. Actually, it was among the best I’ve never seen, as “Mo” recorded a 110 Brisnet speed rating (the Kentucky Derby par is 107) and a -3 LSR — the latter of which was better than the debut number of Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid and, yes, even Secretariat. And nothing the son of Indian Charlie has done since then makes me think he is anything less than a potential superstar. That said, as we saw last year with Eskendereya (another horse I was very high on), a lot can happen on the Triple Crown trail — most of them not good. Still, this guy is clearly the one to beat on the first Saturday in May.

    Best LSR: -2
    Fair Odds: 5-2


    Comments: This guy improved a ton over the course of his three starts last year, but needs to prove he can transfer that form to dirt.

    Best LSR: 0 (zero)
    Fair Odds: 4-1 (field)

    Honorable Mention: Dancinginherdreams will likely go in the Kentucky Oaks but, make no mistake, she’s a runner and would be a factor if she chooses to tackle the boys.

  • 30 comments:

    Ryan said...

    Great work on this post. You seem to have left out MY horse though. Rogue Romance :). I hate that he is running this weekend. My price will get killed after he jogs past them in the stretch.

    I'm intrigued by Sweet Ducky. He has done nothing wrong and could improve. I'm no fan of Pulpit as a sire though. Jaycito also seems interesting.

    Taylor Bara said...

    The future of education is here now. You can discover more just read this page!

    FLIP DIVING said...

    The information you share is very useful. It is closely related to my work and has helped me grow. Thank you!
    subway surfers

    oyunlar said...

    You’ve made some really good points there. I looked on the net for
    additional information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this site. temple run online - temple run 3

    QuickBooks Customer Support said...

    it is always nice to get so much valuable information from this blog, really like reading it.
    Note to readers: If you are a QuickBooks user or customer and looking for any kind of technical help or assistance with the software interface then get it easily from http//support.quickbooks.intuit.com.

    accounting support services said...

    QuickBooks is the most extreme eminent bookkeeping application in the market today. Everybody realizes that Intuit QuickBooks is very popular for creating and structuring adaptable duty and bookkeeping programming that defends complex errands to release business efficiency. Yet, it is additionally obvious that the work area variant of QuickBooks has some substantial restrictions, which make it difficult for organizations to follow the supportable development. In my estimation, organizations need to change to the cloud-based QuickBooks Support so as to profit propelled highlights, upgraded security, and compactness. Our toll free no - +1(888)253-0666
    Visit : Quickbooks customer support

    accounting support services said...

    QuickBooks is the most extreme eminent bookkeeping application in the market today. Everybody realizes that Intuit QuickBooks is very popular for creating and structuring adaptable duty and bookkeeping programming that defends complex errands to release business efficiency. Yet, it is additionally obvious that the work area variant of QuickBooks has some substantial restrictions, which make it difficult for organizations to follow the supportable development. In my estimation, organizations need to change to the cloud-based QuickBooks Support so as to profit propelled highlights, upgraded security, and compactness.Our toll free no - +1(888)253-0666
    Visit : Quickbooks Support

    How To Fix QuickBooks Error said...

    If while using the QuickBooks software if you are facing any issues related to Accounting problem or any other issue related to software problem then you can contact to Quickbooks Support Phone Number . our well trained professional who will assist you with the best possible solution.

    camera24x7 said...
    This comment has been removed by the author.
    camera24x7 said...

    We offer you numerous Home Security features. Stay tension free with Arlo camera. Connect with us at Arlo Support for resolving your security concerns. Our Expert will help you. Dial toll- free 1-877-984-6848 Number.

    cobb steven said...

    microsoft recently launched a application, windows spotlight quiz
    it changes the background images in users login windows. it shows HD images to users.
    bing premier league quiz is the source of these images. these images are never repeated.

    phamyen said...

    The articles you share, it is very detailed and meticulous, I hope you will have more interesting articles to share with readers next time.
    Click to play crash the bash fully

    Anonymous said...

    برای خرید سرور مجازی به سرودیتا مراجعه کنید
    sarvdata

    Anonymous said...

    nicemelodi

    Hotelescortservices.com said...

    Call girl services in Jaipur
    Call girl services in Jaipur
    Call girl services in Jaipur
    Call girl services in Delhi
    Call girl services in Guwahati
    Call girl services in Guwahati
    Call girl services in Guwahati

    247 Camera Help said...

    There are a lot of articles present on youtube or on google, which can help you in many ways. You have studied a lot of blogs which have described the installation, Arlo windows app, it is applicable to each and every version of the windows. But the problem has not been solved yet in downloading the Arlo MAC App, then don’t get upset and talk to one of our best experts by dialing our number. The helpline is available to you 24/7, You can ask all the questions anytime.

    247 Camera Help said...

    In the URL address bar, type Arlo NetGear login, this will ask your login credentials. The email address and the password, you have to fill at the time account creation. The need for security has to be taken as the biggest priority. For this concern million of users, on a daily basis, create the Arlo login my account. If you are not able to perform any of the steps for the camera set up, then you can call us immediately, and we will revert back with the full satisfactory answer.

    قلاده کمری سگ said...

    قلاده کمری سگ

    Nick mosan said...

    When you try to access a file in Quickbooks using the multi-user option, you may get the Quickbooks error 6123,0. An error message will appear, indicating that you are no longer linked to the Quickbooks file or that the connection has been lost. The programme and your company file are both likely to be affected by this problem.

    Daniel Lisa said...

    QuickBooks Error Missing Name List Problem is one such error that happens whilst a few missing item names and accounts aren't indexed in QuickBooks Desktop. Whenever this mistake happens it comes up with an error message stating “We’re sorry. QuickBooks couldn’t open your business enterprise file”. When the Quickbooks missing name list problem message seems it comes with an answer that indicates “We’ll try to fix the problem.

    onlyblog said...

    Nice Blog. Thanks for sharing with us. Such amazing information.

    Only Blog

    Guest Blogger

    Guest Blogging Site

    Guest Blogging Website

    Guest Posting Site

    قلاده کمری سگ said...

    Download Oxygen Forensic Detective Crack

    Oxygen Forensic Detective Crack said...


    Oxygen Forensic Detective Crack

    Nick mosan said...

    The Quickbooks connection diagnostic tool is designed to diagnose networking and multi-user issues when you open a company file. If you're having trouble with the H202, H505, or 6000 series of errors, this tool can help. The QuickBooks Connection Diagnostic Tool is only compatible with QuickBooks 2008 on Windows 7, Windows Vista, or Windows XP computers.

    Anonymous said...

    Intuit also developed QuickBooks Clean Install Tool for repairing QuickBooks installations. Quickbooks clean install tool will not only fix problems you may encounter when using or opening QuickBooks, but will also fix issues related to other components. Additionally, the tool is easy to use and won't affect any data.

    Step 1: Remove QuickBooks Desktop Application

    Step 2: Download and install QuickBooks Tool Hub

    Step 3: Go to the Quickbooks Clean Install Tool and install it

    Step 4: Rename the folders for installation

    Step 5: To use QuickBooks, you need to reinstall the QuickBooks application

    linaluice12 said...

    4 Ways To Take Preparation For Duolingo English Test
    Are you searching the internet blindly by typing ‘Duolingo coaching centre near me’? Well, you can prepare for this test from the comfort of your home easily if you follow a few points.
    Take a walkthrough- Whether you want to study in the UK after the 12th or want to take preparation for a test, you first need to know how it works and what it is that you need to do.
    Take a sample test- Professionals associated with abroad study consultancy services suggest students take a sample test to get an idea about the questions they can face.
    Download the guide- Experts associated with online sop writing services considered this one of the easy ways to prepare for Duolingo English test. After all, the test's creators are the best individuals to guide you with useful advice and success-oriented strategy notes.
    Read More Blogs-
    Top Psychology Universities in Canada
    Masters in Finance in Canada
    Masters in Business Analytics in Canada
    Masters in Computer Science in Canada
    Masters in Mechanical Engineering in Australia
    Masters in Hotel Management in Australia

    jeewangarg said...

    The fact that SEO services are no longer relevant is one of the causes. The search algorithms used by Google's web crawlers and search bots are frequently modified. Finding informative or distinctive material is their goal or purpose. When you have a plan, you can take advantage of many opportunities. Whatever SEO strategies you require, we at Jeevan Garg, the SEO Company in Faridabad are here to elevate your online presence. Whether your website is brand-new or has been up for some time, we are here to provide you with an efficient SEO plan that will enable you to rank well on Google. Our SEO services in Faridabad are here to help you start on the path to our full SEO package.

    Resultfou-u said...

    MP Board Class 12 Question Bank 2022-23 is available free of cost on our portal for students preparing for Class 12 Board Exam, students can easily download MP Board Class 12 Question Bank 2022-23
    in PDF format from given link Will prove to be very useful in the upcoming board exams.

    My Assignment Help said...


    Unlock Your Writing Potential with an Essay Paraphraser

    Struggling with paraphrasing your essays? Say goodbye to the frustration and welcome our revolutionary Essay Paraphraser! This powerful tool is designed to transform your writing experience, effortlessly rewriting your content while maintaining the original meaning. Don't let repetitive language or accidental plagiarism hold you back - let our Essay Paraphraser take your writing to new heights.

    James Robert said...

    If you've ever needed a reliable method to convert your iCloud files into easily shareable and universally compatible PDF documents, your search ends here. Discover the hassle-free solution that streamlines the process and empowers you to transform your iCloud files into PDF format effortlessly. Whether it's for professional reports, educational materials, or personal documentation, this solution offers simplicity and convenience, ensuring that your important content is accessible and preserved in a format that suits your needs. Say goodbye to compatibility issues and welcome a seamless conversion experience with our easy solution to convert iCloud files to PDF documents.

    Post a Comment