Race 4 * 5.5 Furlongs * Turf
Fair Odds: 6-1
1-Due Date (8/5)
Fair Odds: 2-1
Fair Odds: 9-2
COMMENT(S): This race appears to be relatively contentious, although I get the feeling most of the betting will fall on Due Date and/or Delano. Hence, I’ll take a shot with a price horse, SWEETSOUTHERNMOON, who I believe is improving and showed a great late kick while breaking her turf maiden at Louisiana Downs in September. DUE DATE is clearly the one to beat, but enters this race off of a 63-day layoff and tends to hit or miss; at the price, I’ll say he misses. DELANO is getting good and would be worth a wager if the price is right.
BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 3 at odds of 6-1 or greater.
Fair Grounds (02/19/11)
Race 10 * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt
Fair Odds: 3-1
5-Mucho Macho Man (4/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
1-Rogue Romance (3/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
COMMENT(S): MACHEN has already demonstrated that he has a nice late kick and I’m hoping that the rankness he exhibited last time was due to the slow pace — a scenario that is highly unlikely to unfold today. Given a mid-pack trip, I think the son of Distorted Humor can mow them all down late. MUCHO MACHO MAN sheds the blinkers today, which I think is a wise move in light of today’s probable brisk pace. If he runs back to his Grade 2 Nashua effort, “Macho Man” will be tough. ROGUE ROMANCE looks to be using this race solely as a prep, but he’s got talent and should be closing late.
BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 3-1 or greater.
Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics
Races (Selections): 15 (17)
(This year's published selections through 02/18/11.)
Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).