Saturday Selections
Fair Grounds (02/19/11)
Race 4 * 5.5 Furlongs * Turf
3-Sweetsouthernmoon (8/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
1-Due Date (8/5)
Fair Odds: 2-1
2-Delano (6/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
COMMENT(S): This race appears to be relatively contentious, although I get the feeling most of the betting will fall on Due Date and/or Delano. Hence, I’ll take a shot with a price horse, SWEETSOUTHERNMOON, who I believe is improving and showed a great late kick while breaking her turf maiden at Louisiana Downs in September. DUE DATE is clearly the one to beat, but enters this race off of a 63-day layoff and tends to hit or miss; at the price, I’ll say he misses. DELANO is getting good and would be worth a wager if the price is right.
Race 4 * 5.5 Furlongs * Turf
3-Sweetsouthernmoon (8/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
1-Due Date (8/5)
Fair Odds: 2-1
2-Delano (6/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
COMMENT(S): This race appears to be relatively contentious, although I get the feeling most of the betting will fall on Due Date and/or Delano. Hence, I’ll take a shot with a price horse, SWEETSOUTHERNMOON, who I believe is improving and showed a great late kick while breaking her turf maiden at Louisiana Downs in September. DUE DATE is clearly the one to beat, but enters this race off of a 63-day layoff and tends to hit or miss; at the price, I’ll say he misses. DELANO is getting good and would be worth a wager if the price is right.
(Click on image to enlarge)
BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 3 at odds of 6-1 or greater.
Fair Grounds (02/19/11)
Race 10 * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt
6-Machen (6/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
5-Mucho Macho Man (4/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
1-Rogue Romance (3/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
COMMENT(S): MACHEN has already demonstrated that he has a nice late kick and I’m hoping that the rankness he exhibited last time was due to the slow pace — a scenario that is highly unlikely to unfold today. Given a mid-pack trip, I think the son of Distorted Humor can mow them all down late. MUCHO MACHO MAN sheds the blinkers today, which I think is a wise move in light of today’s probable brisk pace. If he runs back to his Grade 2 Nashua effort, “Macho Man” will be tough. ROGUE ROMANCE looks to be using this race solely as a prep, but he’s got talent and should be closing late.
BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 3-1 or greater.
Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics
Races (Selections): 15 (17)
Wins: 6
Rate: 40.0%
Return: $49.70
ROI: +46.18%
(This year's published selections through 02/18/11.)
Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
12 comments:
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Excited for Saturday Selections! Curated content for the weekend—always a delight. Looking forward to discovering and enjoying the diverse and interesting picks you've prepared.
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"Saturday Selections" on Twinspires offers concise and insightful picks for horse racing enthusiasts. With a focus on weekend races, this blog provides valuable analysis to help bettors make informed decisions. Whether you're a seasoned punter or a casual fan, the blog's selections cater to all levels of expertise. Dive into their expert opinions and tips to enhance your race day experience. Follow along for a thrilling journey into the world of horse racing with Twinspires.
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The "Saturday Selections" blog post offers great insights and thoughtful analysis for horse racing enthusiasts. It's always exciting to see expert picks and strategies for the weekend races. The breakdown of contenders and betting tips adds a lot of value for both casual fans and serious bettors. I appreciate the detailed reasoning behind the choices, which makes the predictions more engaging. Looking forward to seeing how these selections play out!
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