• SimonSays Handicapping Challenge

    POSTED Feb 18, 2011
    Week 4






    Anthony Kelzenberg

    Selections from Rosehill (Australia) on 2/18/11:

    Race 1B

    5-ABOUND gets a 4-pound weight shift (which can matter because the finish is up a grade) and she might be able to turn the tables on main rival 1-HELMET, who got away with murder on the front end and put up a below average speed figure for the level.
    BET(S): 10 units to WIN on 5.

    Race 2B
    9-EXPLOITABLE DOUBT has a great record and is competitive on speed figures. 4-BELTANE has won his last two races nicely.

    BET(S): 10 units to WIN on 9. 4-unit EXACTA BOX 4-9.

    Race 3B

    9-KILLIAN is a good animal that is lightly weighted and may have some improvement in him.

    BET(S): 10 units to WIN on 9.

    Selections from Flemington (Australia) on 2/18/11:

    Race 3A
    Flemington is the track where the Melbourne Cup is run. More importantly, it has a "straight course" (no turn) that plays very nicely to early speed AND classy closers if the pace is fair. Mid-pack runners are generally doomed because they can't get a clean run in the race.

    15-KWASSA KWASSA (30/1) has run well "down the straight" and has sprinter speed. He's definitely a wire-to-wire candidate. 9-I'M DISCRETE (4/1) and 13-PREVENTABLE (12/1) will get first run in what largely looks to be a paceless race. Time to box the speed horses in the exacta and hope something good happens.

    BET(S): 15 units to WIN on 15. 8 units to WIN on 13. 2-unit EXACTA BOX 9,13,15.

    Race 6A
    7-BLACK CAVIAR is the fastest sprinter in the world and 2-GRAND DUELS is in top form. He could have won his last by more lengths but his rider saved something for this race.

    BET(S): 24-unit EXACTA 7-2 and 6-unit EXACTA 2-7.

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    Aqueduct (2/19/11)
    Race 3 * 6F * Dirt

    4-Brahman

    COMMENTS: Todd Pletcher, class drop, blinkers-on and second start in the cycle. Just what the doctor ordered!

    BETS: $20 to WIN on 4.

    Aqueduct (2/19/11)
    Race 5 * 6 Furlongs * Dirt

    2-Im a Mosaic Rocker

    COMMENTS: He is a horse-for-the-course at a big price; not too far from the main contenders here.

    BETS: $5 across the board (WIN, PLACE & SHOW) on 2.

    Gulfstream Park (2/19/11)
    Race 6 * 6.5 Furlongs * Dirt

    6-Saigon Story
    12-Simbamangu
    10-Escort
    1-Turnofthecat

    COMMENTS: SAIGON STORY is looking very well in the mornings and Zito fires better bullets after the debut malefice. SIMBAMANGU enjoys a better post position than in his last race. He had tons of problems that time and still fired a good race. ESCORT has a great connections and it is not too far from the best here. TURNOFTHECAT is again inside, but the talent is there.

    BETS: $5 to WIN on 6. $1 EXACTA BOX 6,12 with 1,6,10,12.

    Gulfstream Park (2/19/11)
    Race 7 * 1-1/16 Miles * Turf

    4-Performing

    COMMENTS: Hopefully, she is not going to be too wide in this one; dropping to a more comfortable spot.

    BETS: $5 to WIN & PLACE on 4.

    Gulfstream Park (2/19/11)
    Race 10 * 1-3/8 Miles * Turf

    4-Free Fighter
    6-Musketier
    12-Al Khali
    7-Prince Will I Am

    COMMENTS: At his big potential price, FREE FIGHTER has the best PF figure of the race and his BRIS figures are among the best. He is training like a monster ready to fire and, running his best, he is right here with the best. MUSKETIER is the horse to beat along with AL KHALI, both the class of the field. PRINCE WILL I AM may become a real deal this year while maturing even more.

    BETS: $5 across the board (WIN, PLACE & SHOW) on 4. $0.10 SUPERFECTA BOX on 4,6,7,10,12.

    Fair Grounds (2/19/11)
    Race 5 * 6 Furlongs * Dirt

    1-Moontune Missy

    COMMENTS: MOONTUNE MISSY has a very hot jockey (in the last 2 weeks) aboard and it is trained by a very hot trainer (also, in the last 2 weeks). Amoss is very effective with blinkers for the 1st time, running a horse for the first time under his training and shipping. Her figures are right there among the top. Rail post is winning at 21% clip.

    BETS: $20 WIN on 1.

    Fair Grounds (2/19/11)
    Race 8 * 1-1/16 Miles * Dirt

    2-Demarcation

    COMMENTS: Good price for a horse that comes from a key race in a very good effort. His figures are among the top here. He enjoys this course and rail post is winning at 29% clip. The jockey is on fire!

    BETS: $20 WIN on 2.

    Fair Grounds (2/19/11)
    Race 9 * 1-1/8 Miles * Turf

    7-Joinem
    10-Loup Breton

    COMMENTS: JOINEM is a talent in development. This is his 3rd start of the cycle in a course he enjoy with a prospective pace he will also enjoy. He is training much better for this one evidencing his improvement.

    BETS: $10 WIN & PLACE on 7. $1 EXACTA BOX 7,10 with 1,5,6,7,10,11.

    Santa Anita Park (2/19/11)
    Race 3 * 1-1/2 Miles * Turf

    4-Juniper Pass

    COMMENTS: I just have a feeling he can be a major player here. He is improving and the conditions will be favoring a longshot!

    BETS: $5 across the board (WIN, PLACE & SHOW) on 4.

    Jon Luman

    All selections at Gulfstream Park (2/19/11):

    Race 1
    $20 to WIN on 5-Sharper Lisa.
    Reasoning: Still love the able longshot.

    Race 2
    $20 to WIN on 7-Cancerbero.
    Reasoning: Should have the kick late.

    Race 3
    $20 to WIN on 2-Platinum Futures.
    Reasoning: Love the odds, hoping for some positive early speed control.

    Race 4
    $20 to WIN on 10-Pray for Action.
    Reasoning: Good bet at the odds. Should have an early speed advantage to overcome post.

    Race 5
    $20 to WIN on 2-Zhivago.
    Reasoning: This one has had the most practice at this distance.

    Race 6
    $20 WIN on 1-Turnofthecat.
    Reasoning: Lowest rating; I like less early speed at this distance.

    Race 7
    $20 WIN on 10-To the Point.
    Reasoning: A tough race to call, a calvary charge from the quarter pole if #7 doesn't steal it with a wire job. I like #10 to have a little more run in the stretch.

    Race 8
    $20 WIN on 5-Billy Smart.
    Reasoning: Okay, I'm going for another speedball on the lawn. I find the odds irresistible even though #6 shows great balance here.

    Race 9
    $20 WIN on 6-Catch a Thief.
    Reasoning: I think #6 will stay out of the battle for the lead and take advantage of it.

    Race 10
    $20 WIN on 1-Pool Play.
    Reasoning: Give me slow for turf marathons. #1 has also had some practice at longer distance.

    Race 11
    $20 WIN on 6-Prado Dash.
    Reasoning: I like the balance of early and late run, and the odds.


    Equinetic

    Bet $80 win, $40 place and $20 show (or any other graduated amount one feels comfortable with) on all qualified selections. Only those choices going to post at odds of 6-1 or greater should be played.

    Selections from Gulfstream Park (2/20/11):

    Race 4
    7-Middle of the Nite

    Race 7
    4-Our Champion

    Race 9
    7-Why Tonto

    Race 11
    10-Shakeira

    Selections from Oaklawn Park (2/20/11):

    Race 7
    3-Storming Suzy

    Race 8
    2-Stout Hope

    Race 9
    1-Cosmo Girl

    Race 10
    11-Sharp Angle
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