• Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 10-31-11

    POSTED Oct 30, 2011
    Last week, after the Breeders Crown eliminations, I suggested that there might be people who wish to enter rehab based on an “addiction to wagering on promising horses that the public rejects.” It is a condition that swears people off of prohibitive favorites, under-lays or whatever you like to call horses backed vigorously by the majority of bettors. If you were one of those people and you were successful in rehab, returning to wagering with an undiluted respect for the most probable winner, you cashed tickets in the 2011 Breeders Crown program at Woodbine on Oct. 29.  

    The Breeders Crown program, 12 races with most of the divisions’ best horses, produced an average win price of $7.50. If we eliminate the highest win price and the lowest, a usual ploy when attempting to calculate an accurate average, that price becomes $6.86.  

    If you won with every horse, that pick-12 cost $24 and returned $90.40. If you only played the favorites, your $24 got you back $25.60, a profit less than 2 percent.  

    The highest prices of the evening were 18.90, 12.90, 11.40, 11.00 and 10.60.  

    The first Pick 4 paid $53.10 and the second paid $196 for dollar tickets.  

    This was not the kind of card under any circumstances that would find me, as a player with an “addiction to wagering on promising horses that the public rejects,” turning a profit. The best, mediocre or the worse horses offered in any dozen races, I would not be playing all the races and I doubt very much if I would have profited from the few I played.  

    So, our work to discover those horses in the finals that would, in our opinion, go to the gate with odds better than their chances, was unproductive, which in the scheme of any dozen races, is not uncommon. With that explained, let me review what happened to our suggested contenders in all of the races, including how we dealt with the closing odds. 

    It began strangely, as the horse we chose to win became the race favorite. We could not flatter ourselves and think our published choice affected so many bettors but we had no idea why Jersey As went to post as the public choice. Our three “exotic material” choices, which we added in each race as horses you should consider using in exotic combos, included the three that made the race’s $183.70 triactor—Frenchfrysnvinegar, Action Broadway and Autumn Escapade. Jersey As raced in the rear and found that spot so comfortable she resided there until the mile’s end. We did not bet this race. 

    Our choice defied the dead-on favorite, going off around 5-2. She had a tougher trip, fanning three wide in an attempt to catch the favorite but finished second behind the favorite, which paid 2.90. We did not bet this race, which resulted in an exacta worth 5.30.  

    Our choice, Pirouette Hanover, went off a hard 5-1. She had to negotiate an outside trip, getting into a deadly duel in the stretch, contributing to suicide fractions which allowed the favorite to sweep pass those two late to win. We played to win; she finished third. 

    Hurrikane Kingcole went off a hard 7-1 and got a good position early. However, the favorite was monstrous. This freaky two-year-old colt made a three-wide brush to the top and ate up real estate to the tune of becoming the fastest two-year-old standardbred ever, winning in 1:49. We played to win; he finished third.

    Royal Shyster got rolling at 18-1 and looked fabulous getting the lead from the 8 hole right off the gate. He stayed there until the half, when the favorite took the lead from him and stayed there until the 7/8ths, when the third choice, on our exotic-material list, at 4-1, closed to win it. We played to win; he finished fifth. 

    On Sept. 3 we suggested you play Anndrovette. She won and paid $19. In this race, she was the celebrated public choice. We liked Maureen Rocks and so did a lot of other people, sending her off at an unappetizing 3-1. She raced on the outside as she had the week before but could not catch the favorite. The horse finishing second was on our exotic-material list, paying $13.10 to place, having gone off at 29-1. We did not bet this race; she finished third. 

    We had two conditions for this one. First our choice, Lucky Jim, had to go off at juicy odds. The second condition was out of our hands. He had to at least give us a shot by racing without breaking. The first condition was satisfied at 8-1 but he broke making a three-wide move only 4 lengths off the leader, who was the favorite and probably locked up Horse of the Year honors by winning. We played to win; he finished seventh (never regaining his gait).  

    Here we expected a favorite to win. In fact, we thought we would be looking at a world-record mile considering Drop The Ball blew away her elim field and was in the best of shape. However, the co-second choice (on our exotic-material list) was far better, passing her and strolling away with the win. We did not bet this race; she finished second. 

    As we have most of the second half of the season, we figured Manofmanymissions would win if he did not break stride. Still, he went off the second favorite to the colt that won the other elim for this division. In front at three-quarters, he broke, and the favorite soared on to win. We did not bet this race; he finished seventh. 

    This was to be the race that made history for us. We had to beat a monster of a filly, the prohibitive choice. On the toteboard, our choice, Pantholops, was 99-1. Her actual odds were 152-1. She was disadvantaged having to come from post 10 but that did not stop us because her odds were way better than her chances. As it turned out, she raced well, mostly on the outside with cover, though she, like the rest of the field, were powerless against the big favorite. We played to win; she finished fourth. 

    Here we were simply wrong about how our choice would race. We expected far more from Fashion Delight than he delivered. He was 60-1. However, we were right to think the highly touted favorite would lose. He lost to the third choice, though only by a nose. If our choice came out of the race all right we stand by our opinion he will return for a strong four-year-old season. We played to win; he finished eighth (by only 3 lengths; a mere 6 lengths separated the 10-horse field at the wire). 

    The public thought as we thought they would think, making our choice, We Will See, a solid choice, close in the wagering to the second choice. We expected a powerful mile by this guy, who at four, dominated older horses most of the season. But he surrendered  to a pair of horses we cashed in on this year, the winner being the longest shot of the evening at 8-1. We did not bet this race; he finished third. 

    Each of the races above are linked to review stories by Ray Cotolo, a contributor to our causes for harness racing success. 

    Do not despair. The major stakes season still has some gas in its tank and we did not wager so foolishly as to be damaged by the less-than-generous public. We will return to the stakes and overnight wars in our Thursday blog and never consider rehab. 

    We thank everyone for following us live the night of the Breeders Crown and we thank the Hambletonian Society, handlers of the magnificent series, for all of its cooperation and support for the wagering side of the audience, as we addressed through TwinSpires.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

    Anonymous said...

    It is a website that has a post about ACUHO photo galleries shine a light on the association's activities. You can check appointment setter to manage your technology skills easily.It also works for members that have dedicated their lives. They have a detail of spotlight Washington State university for semi and private bathroom. Join it.

    Unknown said...

    If more people that write articles really concerned themselves with writing great content like you, more readers would be interested in their writings. Thank you for caring about your content.
    Commercial Services Decatur GA

    Michel hardy said...

    Hi there! Nice stuff, do keep me posted when you post again something like this!
    Loading Services Bethesda MD

    oYe Ji said...

    craigslist pittsburgh

    Modern Calculators said...

    This is best info i got.I like your blog because you give me right info.
    Free Loan Calculator
    Online Loan Calculators
    Rent Calculator
    Real Estate Calculators
    BMI Calculator
    BMR Calculator Or Basal Metabolism Calculator

    Victor said...

    πŸš€πŸ“– Discover more on this fascinating topic by checking out our latest blog article! πŸ“–πŸš€

    This post provides valuable insights and practical tips that can make a real difference in your life. Whether you're looking to learn, be inspired, or simply stay informed, our blog has something for everyone.

    Waseem said...

    Thank you for being willing to provide us with information. I know you are genuinely concerned about us, so we can always appreciate what you have accomplished here. chauffeur service dubai

    dwarkeshindustries said...

    Hey there! πŸš€ Interesting read, thanks for sharing! How about considering today's harness racing trends? πŸ˜„πŸ‡-cassia tora

    bentonitesuppliers said...

    "Great read! πŸ“– It's fascinating how horse racing connects us to history and tradition. πŸ‡πŸŒŸ"-bentonitehttpsuppliers

    Waseem said...

    Again, I want to thank you for all of the information you share.Well written post. The article piqued my curiosity much. high jewellery store online

    Waseem said...

    There is pleasure involved while your website or weblog launches. That is, until it dawns on you that no one exists save your self. Appropriate weblog put up concern.
    digital marketing agency melbourne

    Anonymous said...

    Great read! Your insights on every topic are eye-opening.
    Thanks the author again for their work and invite them to respond to your thoughts.

    Platypus Finance Recovers 90% of Assets Lost in Exploit: The Kangaroo Times: Crypto News

    Waseem said...

    This is a fantastic post. Everyone is an expert at what they do, but those who do nothing with their leisure time, I find it to be extremely admirable, and you are the one who instantly brings joy to others when you post. pet health tips

    Anonymous said...

    Thanks the author again for their work and invite them to respond to your thoughts.

    The Kangaroo Times: Crypto News

    shahim said...

    Impressive work! Your creativity shines through your writing. Keep it up – I can't wait to see what you come up with next!

    Ahmedabad fish said...

    Hey there! πŸš€ I found this read super interesting. Your take on the article adds a fresh perspective! πŸ˜„πŸ“š-bentonite suppliers

    Wholesale crystals said...

    Hey there! πŸš€ Interesting read. I've always loved harness racing. Did you catch any live races recently? 🐎-Wholesale crystals

    GJ AEDU said...

    "Great read! πŸ“š It's amazing how horse racing connects generations. πŸ‡" -jewellery design

    Arya Yadav said...

    Excellent Article George

    Arya Yadav said...

    Excellent Article George

    adeptimize303 said...

    Adeptimize is the best company in the USAdeptimize

    Ahmedabad fish said...

    "Nice insights! It's like harnessing tips from the past for today's races. What if we apply these strategies to modern tracks? πŸ‡✨"
    -fish shop

    lekhny said...

    Very nice content
    Any Stories App Download

    images said...


    Best wishingdays Quotes, Images, Messages Do you want good thoughts and messages about Wishing & Photos then take Your from here

    hair care plan said...

    Trust no one. Tattoos are not brand new and were initially found whenever tattoos grew to become something. Nevertheless, between the pool of quote tattoos created as of 2024, a Trust no one tattoo is undoubtedly among the management.
    Trust No One Tattoo Designs

    US Staffing Agency said...

    Teema Staffing Agency applauds the insightful article on overcoming betting addiction. Just as overcoming habits is vital, so is ensuring a smooth transition back to work. For nurses returning to the healthcare field, consider our nurse checklist to streamline the re-entry process seamlessly

    Swenson said...

    Swenson Snow Removal, your local snow slip and fall expert, applauds the insightful perspective on overcoming betting challenges. Just like rehab transforms habits, our expertise transforms winter safety. Trust us to clear your paths, preventing slips and falls

    Post a Comment