Showing posts with label Broad Bahn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Broad Bahn. Show all posts

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review

    POSTED Dec 26, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    Our Watch List (WL) from Dec. 23 produced three winners. At Northfield, Big Bad TJ won, paying $7.20. At Maywood, KB’s Taylor won, paying $7.60 and KB’s Robby turned into the race favorite, won and paid $3.20 (apparently a lot of bettors were watching, so to speak).   

    The weekend was quiet; we hope you all had terrific holidays. 

    Then, as the shopping madness ensued through the world on Dec. 26, Woodbine’s Boxing Day program presented two stakes. 

    In the Valedictory Final we talked of two horses and they were the two that finished first and second. Our choice, Audreys Dream, was the place horse and the winner was Itrustyou, paying $5.90. If you took the boxing seriously, a hum, you got yourself a meager exacta return of $12.50 on $4. 

    We loved DG’s Tinkerbell in the Niagara Final but the 7-5 favorite took control in the deciding steps of the race and left our choice to finish second at 6-1. With the favorite and our choice second, the exacta came back $33.90. 

    The no-takeout Pick 4 at Cal-Expo returns next weekend as harness continues its programs on Dec.30. We will have our analysis of the New Year’s Eve Pick 4 in this Thursday’s blog.  

    Also on Thursday’s agenda will be some 2012 schedules as planned for some power-packed players’ programs at various tracks as the new season launches with familiar faces taking on new divisions and a look at some of the highly touted horses that will have to meet their expectations in the glamour divisions. 

    Harness News


    Christmas at France’s historic Vincennes offered the $155,000 Criterium Continental. The crowd, always loud and ready for action at the harness kingdom, was there to see if Timoko (photo right by Gerard Forni) could top his four-year-old trotting foes (there is no pacing in France) after a three-month layoff. With Rich Westerink in the bike, Timoko returned to beat the horse that got him last October in the 1 5/16ths-mile stakes. That nemesis is the Swedish-bred Kadett CD. With the win, Timoko aims at the classic Prix d’Amerique in January, 2012, attempting to be the first five-year-old to win since 2007, when Offshore Dream took the classic. 

    Our good friend, harness correspondent Ken Weingartner, talked to George Brennan, named Driver of the Year by the harness writers group. Brennan won 754 races and earned $14.5 million in purses from them. They included the Hambletonian—which we hit big with the TwinSpires Players Pool—with Broad Bahn.  

    “It’s really unbelievable,” he told Ken. “You always hope to win it one time and to get lucky enough to win it … in consecutive years is a really great achievement.”

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review

    POSTED Nov 27, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    Strange and obvious are the two words that cover the major stakes action we discussed in our pre-weekend blog. Also, our no-takeout Pick 4 at Cal-Expo was cancelled. Those are the teased headlines and here now is the news.  

    Saturday’s Forest City for pacing mares on the little mile at Western Fair in Canada was a curious affair. It looked odd from the beginning as six of the eight pacers lined up with two in the second tier. You rarely see horses of this caliber get rolling in such a configuration but this is a half-mile that doesn’t often host such class.  

    The field left the gate with some of the gals four and five wide going for spots, with our choice, last year’s champion, Dreamfair Eternal, staying well off the early pace from post 5. That was a wise decision since the huge favorite, Anndrovette, was bothered behind a breaker heading for a sizzling first quarter of :25.3. Although she got back on the pace, Anndrovette never had much of a shot trying to negotiate the remaining three turns. 

    The 13-1 Voelz Hanover cut the fractions, getting a break to a 1:24 three-quarters and in the short stretch Dreamfair Eternal (7-2) flew home to be third.  (Upper-left photo by Mark Hall)

    Obvious things went on at Dover where the soph-colt pacing Matron Final paired Ron Burke-trained favorites (an entry) Westwardho Hanover and Hugadragon. We were backing an upset, of course, hoping these two could cancel one another out with a fiery duel. Little did we know that our suggested contender, Lookingforadventure, who has been notorious for winning off of duels, would go off anywhere near the ridiculous odds the bettors allowed. 

    Lookingforadventure was 1,189-1.  

    The winner was Hugadragon and the mega-favorite entry paid $2.10, which was the only mutuel allowed. 

    Over at Cal-Expo on Saturday evening, charting the races was becoming more and more difficult. According to the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office, fog “thicker than leftover gravy” was covering the Yuba-Sutter area, “reducing visibility to less than a quarter of a mile in some places.” The driver advisory was not just for people on motor vehicles, as harness drivers on the Cal-Expo mile found themselves racing in the clouds while never leaving the ground. Races 10 through 15 were cancelled, siting obvious dangerous conditions for man and beast traveling the mile oval.  

    Our Watch List reported only one winner, and nothing to brag about, with Charlie Beans at $2.90 at Batavia. Of the others that raced (see the Nov. 24 blog for the list or email me through TwinSpires) Key Western finished second (paying $11.60 to place) and Show Me Glory was sixth at Northfield. Morgan Shark was second at Balmoral. Also at Batavia, Rush Of Fools was in a dead heat for fourth and Warners Rambaran was seventh. They all remain on the list for their next starts.  

    Harness News


    Our TwinSpires Hambletonian-pool winner, Broad Bahn, will be retired. He is going off to stud duty. He follows his nemesis, Manofmanymissions, who also leaves the track to help propagate the breed.
    Pompano Park harness launched its MEGA-9 wager on Nov. 26, offering patrons a chance to win a minimum $5,000 guaranteed pool for a base 10-cent wager. The first night's payout was $13.46 for those selecting seven of nine. The guaranteed minimum pool will be offered every race night through the mandatory payout night of May 5, 2012.
    Northfield Park adds a $30,000 guaranteed Pick-5 pool on Nov. 28. It begins with Race 3 and has a carryover this week of $7,779. The Pick 4 that night includes a $10,000 guarantee beginning with Race 8. The track’s “Pick” events offer a reduced takeout of 14 percent, the lowest in the sport, not counting the TwinSpires-Cal-Expo no-takeout Pick 4 on Saturdays.
    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 10-31-11

    POSTED Oct 30, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    Last week, after the Breeders Crown eliminations, I suggested that there might be people who wish to enter rehab based on an “addiction to wagering on promising horses that the public rejects.” It is a condition that swears people off of prohibitive favorites, under-lays or whatever you like to call horses backed vigorously by the majority of bettors. If you were one of those people and you were successful in rehab, returning to wagering with an undiluted respect for the most probable winner, you cashed tickets in the 2011 Breeders Crown program at Woodbine on Oct. 29.  

    The Breeders Crown program, 12 races with most of the divisions’ best horses, produced an average win price of $7.50. If we eliminate the highest win price and the lowest, a usual ploy when attempting to calculate an accurate average, that price becomes $6.86.  

    If you won with every horse, that pick-12 cost $24 and returned $90.40. If you only played the favorites, your $24 got you back $25.60, a profit less than 2 percent.  

    The highest prices of the evening were 18.90, 12.90, 11.40, 11.00 and 10.60.  

    The first Pick 4 paid $53.10 and the second paid $196 for dollar tickets.  

    This was not the kind of card under any circumstances that would find me, as a player with an “addiction to wagering on promising horses that the public rejects,” turning a profit. The best, mediocre or the worse horses offered in any dozen races, I would not be playing all the races and I doubt very much if I would have profited from the few I played.  

    So, our work to discover those horses in the finals that would, in our opinion, go to the gate with odds better than their chances, was unproductive, which in the scheme of any dozen races, is not uncommon. With that explained, let me review what happened to our suggested contenders in all of the races, including how we dealt with the closing odds. 

    Race 1

    It began strangely, as the horse we chose to win became the race favorite. We could not flatter ourselves and think our published choice affected so many bettors but we had no idea why Jersey As went to post as the public choice. Our three “exotic material” choices, which we added in each race as horses you should consider using in exotic combos, included the three that made the race’s $183.70 triactor—Frenchfrysnvinegar, Action Broadway and Autumn Escapade. Jersey As raced in the rear and found that spot so comfortable she resided there until the mile’s end. We did not bet this race. 

    Race 2

    Our choice defied the dead-on favorite, going off around 5-2. She had a tougher trip, fanning three wide in an attempt to catch the favorite but finished second behind the favorite, which paid 2.90. We did not bet this race, which resulted in an exacta worth 5.30.  

    Race 3

    Our choice, Pirouette Hanover, went off a hard 5-1. She had to negotiate an outside trip, getting into a deadly duel in the stretch, contributing to suicide fractions which allowed the favorite to sweep pass those two late to win. We played to win; she finished third. 

    Race 4

    Hurrikane Kingcole went off a hard 7-1 and got a good position early. However, the favorite was monstrous. This freaky two-year-old colt made a three-wide brush to the top and ate up real estate to the tune of becoming the fastest two-year-old standardbred ever, winning in 1:49. We played to win; he finished third.

    Race 5

    Royal Shyster got rolling at 18-1 and looked fabulous getting the lead from the 8 hole right off the gate. He stayed there until the half, when the favorite took the lead from him and stayed there until the 7/8ths, when the third choice, on our exotic-material list, at 4-1, closed to win it. We played to win; he finished fifth. 

    Race 6

    On Sept. 3 we suggested you play Anndrovette. She won and paid $19. In this race, she was the celebrated public choice. We liked Maureen Rocks and so did a lot of other people, sending her off at an unappetizing 3-1. She raced on the outside as she had the week before but could not catch the favorite. The horse finishing second was on our exotic-material list, paying $13.10 to place, having gone off at 29-1. We did not bet this race; she finished third. 

    Race 7

    We had two conditions for this one. First our choice, Lucky Jim, had to go off at juicy odds. The second condition was out of our hands. He had to at least give us a shot by racing without breaking. The first condition was satisfied at 8-1 but he broke making a three-wide move only 4 lengths off the leader, who was the favorite and probably locked up Horse of the Year honors by winning. We played to win; he finished seventh (never regaining his gait).  

    Race 8

    Here we expected a favorite to win. In fact, we thought we would be looking at a world-record mile considering Drop The Ball blew away her elim field and was in the best of shape. However, the co-second choice (on our exotic-material list) was far better, passing her and strolling away with the win. We did not bet this race; she finished second. 

    Race 9

    As we have most of the second half of the season, we figured Manofmanymissions would win if he did not break stride. Still, he went off the second favorite to the colt that won the other elim for this division. In front at three-quarters, he broke, and the favorite soared on to win. We did not bet this race; he finished seventh. 

    Race 10

    This was to be the race that made history for us. We had to beat a monster of a filly, the prohibitive choice. On the toteboard, our choice, Pantholops, was 99-1. Her actual odds were 152-1. She was disadvantaged having to come from post 10 but that did not stop us because her odds were way better than her chances. As it turned out, she raced well, mostly on the outside with cover, though she, like the rest of the field, were powerless against the big favorite. We played to win; she finished fourth. 

    Race 11

    Here we were simply wrong about how our choice would race. We expected far more from Fashion Delight than he delivered. He was 60-1. However, we were right to think the highly touted favorite would lose. He lost to the third choice, though only by a nose. If our choice came out of the race all right we stand by our opinion he will return for a strong four-year-old season. We played to win; he finished eighth (by only 3 lengths; a mere 6 lengths separated the 10-horse field at the wire). 

    Race 12

    The public thought as we thought they would think, making our choice, We Will See, a solid choice, close in the wagering to the second choice. We expected a powerful mile by this guy, who at four, dominated older horses most of the season. But he surrendered  to a pair of horses we cashed in on this year, the winner being the longest shot of the evening at 8-1. We did not bet this race; he finished third. 

    Each of the races above are linked to review stories by Ray Cotolo, a contributor to our causes for harness racing success. 

    Do not despair. The major stakes season still has some gas in its tank and we did not wager so foolishly as to be damaged by the less-than-generous public. We will return to the stakes and overnight wars in our Thursday blog and never consider rehab. 

    We thank everyone for following us live the night of the Breeders Crown and we thank the Hambletonian Society, handlers of the magnificent series, for all of its cooperation and support for the wagering side of the audience, as we addressed through TwinSpires.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Breeders Crown presents: The Eliminators

    POSTED Oct 19, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    The Grand Circuit season is not over but it is all down hill after the next two weeks as the best of 12 divisions meet at Woodbine for Breeders Crown eliminations (Oct. 21 and 22nd) and finals (Oct. 29). From Indiana Downs on Saturday, Oct. 22, come four sires stakes (INSS) finals at $200,000 each. TwinSpires offers 10X points on that card, so click here for those details. We offer our suggestions for the INSS miles below. 

    Continue in the next two weeks to check out our exclusive blog, Breeders Crown Countdown because we will be collecting all the inside information and then on the two nights of elims and one for finals we will be reporting on TwinSpires live with reports via the blog and Twitter in exclusive cooperation with the event’s handlers, the Hambletonian Society. On the site at Woodbine we have sources (horsemen) giving us up-to-the-minute news about the entries, the track condition, et al.  

    There is nowhere else but TwinSpires to truly experience the Breeders Crown, so lock and load those accounts and let’s get into the thick of the races for Friday and Saturday. 

    First, here are the races that will not be part of the elim-weekend agenda. Three events go straight to finals: The two-year-old filly pace, the Open Trot and Open Pace. As of press time, the Mare Trot “is under dispute and in limbo,” according to officials.     

    The Freshmen


    Friday’s eliminations are all for two-year-olds. No freshmen are allowed to supplement, so these five races feature colts and fillies that have been eligible all season.   

    Frosh-colt trotters start it off in splits worth $25,000 (U.S.). Eight go to post and one of them is a horse we hit on two times in a row ($18 and $13) streaking at The Red Mile. It’s From Above, trainer Greg Peck’s 2012 Hambletonian hopeful. This time around he may not offer such value, though a lot of money will go to Possess The Will after his record performance in Kentucky.  

    The outside contender with a similar style as both of those but who will not be bet to the hilt is Classic Conway. The New York-bred has a good gait and may be peaking right now.  

    The other colt-trot chapter presents some shaky stuff. These are very green boys and it is difficult to predict which will hop, skip or jump, no less trot to victory. The fascinating outsider here could be Appomattox. The Frank Antonacci-trained colt is one of two maidens in this field. Yet, he has excuses for his losses and was bet the best of his career when he trotted home second to From Above two races back. He could win by default or just because he is coming up to this race ready to do better than ever. 

    The single frosh-filly trot elim is as contentious as a face for youngsters as has ever been put on a racetrack. Circles and Win Missy B are byes for the final, leaving 10 to contest eight spots in the elim. Still, what a mess of talent taking step on the track.  

    We have raised support for many of these gals over the course of the season but it is now time to find the one that can spread some black ink into our accounts. That gal, it seems, is Personal Style. Her win at 49-1 in Kentucky was a massive overlook on the part of the public. She should have been given a shot off of a vet scratch and a break during a good performance but the crowd showed no mercy. Tonight, considering the popularity of Miss Paris and Check Me Out, “Style” may again go off a long price. Richard Norman’s filly will race better than an outsider and maybe go better than the recent win.  

    Two frosh-colt pace elims line up to reach for the final in Race 4 and Race 6 to complete the Friday Crown lineup. Continued support for A Rocknroll Dance is bound to dominate the win pool as this colt tries to put his pace in his sire’s  hoof beats. But this may be the perfect time to wager against him as he comes off a sub-1:50 mile. 


    Hurrikane Kingcole has had two blistering qualifiers, one in 1:53.2 on a good Pocono-five-eighths track, as tune ups for this week and next. He will be winging and he will be worth it on the toteboard.  

    The second split, Machapelo sits in a perfect spot to use the force he showed winning a Champlain Stakes. The son of speedy Mach Three may be the best of this group if his blueblood begins to flow as he heads for a promising sophomore campaign.  

    The Sophomores

     
    Two elims for each of the sophomore gaits and sexes are on the agenda Saturday, Oct. 22. Filly trotters start the evening in Race 1 and it is a matter of who stays flat that makes this first mile so difficult. Which will the public trust this time?  

    We think it is time for Jezzy to show what she can do. She is certainly the most trustworthy on gait and she is bound to be overlooked enough to make her a good investment.  

    Race 2 presents the first split for the glamour-boy trotters. Two supplements, Daylon Magician and Dejarmbro, take on some familiar and unfamiliar members of the division’s regular crew. This is class warfare, with the “fresh meat” coming from cheaper affairs. Chapter Seven returned to decent form and has the style to win here over the supplements, who should share favoritism.  

    In round two for the boys, Race 3, Manofmanymissions attempts to repeat his Crown championship at three and only has to stay flat to win it. Big Rigs will try to steal it, setting up what could be an awful duel with Broad Bahn and the other class figure, Whiskey Tax, could pull a giant upset or complete the exacta with “Man.” 

    For the second filly trot we have to give a shot to Pantholops. If she stays flat she could take off as she did when we had her at the Meadows at 16-1. She is the sharp outsider and classiest of the bunch. 

    Race 7 is the first mile for filly pacers. We have to love Swinging Beauty for the probable overlay she will be. Her style is perfect for Woodbine and she could pace down Drop The Ball as Strike An Attitude did in the last battle of these babes.  

    Race 9 marks the return of See You At Peelers, the sentimental favorite and one-time queen of this division. If her heart is better she will race well but only well enough to make the final, we think. We’re sticking with Rocklamation, who was tough in the Jugette and has the reserved style to do well in Woodbine’s sinking stretch, which leaves a lot of speed short. 

    The glamour-boy pacers cap the night with Race 10 and Race 11. The Teague team has been hot and Custard The Dragon breathed fire in a qualifier at Pocono to ready for this fray. He always wins when the odds are against him and this could be a big mile for him at juicy odds. 

    Finally, Fashion Delight has been primed and preened for this event and may give everything he has to at least win this elim and do so at strong odds against the crowd-pleasing favorites who have lacked being the threats that their odds have portrayed. 

    Indiana Sires Stakes


    Action in the Midwest, where TwinSpires offers 10X points on the Indiana Downs card this Saturday night, begins with a frosh-filly trotter INSS final. Under the radar here, My Sweet Sheila could upset the obvious favorites for driver/trainer Robert Taylor.  

    The two-year-old colt trot champ may very well turn out to be the weirdly named Velten San Siro. He has collected many big checks in only nine outs.  

    Free Girl is in a good spot to charge home first in the frosh-filly pace final. Her sire, LCB (named after the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board) was solid in the East when racing and turning into a productive sire in the Midwest. 

    Fritz Bow has won half of his first campaign’s races and was close most the others. For only eight starts he may just be starting to wake up enough to win the frosh-colt pace final.

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 10-3-11

    POSTED Oct 2, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    We began big with two winners this past weekend and they were enough to make a profit, certainly if we didn’t play all of our contenders, which rarely we do. It’s fun, however, to see that a workup of our win plays turns into a profit per $2-based bets (see below).  

    Friday, as September concluded, we were hot with the Bluegrass events at The Red Mile. Two powerfully priced winners blackened the ink further in our bankrolls. We began with a pass, figuring Delano would romp but he was very short and lost; we didn’t. Then Muscolo finished seventh. 

    Next, in the third round of Bluegrasses for frosh-colt trotters, we hit with From Above. Unexpectedly, the colt paid $18.60. 

    Later, Melt In Your Mouth, in the Bluegrass nightcap for the colts, finished fourth. 

    Frosh-filly pacing Bluegrasses were the other features and the second split was a pass (American Jewel, our choice, won). That didn’t matter since Destiny’s Chance, a rogue filly ineligible to the upcoming Breeders Crown (unless supplemented) beat a bunch of “Crown” hopefuls, racing as well as we expected, though the public did not.  

    Destiny’s Chance paid $63 to win.  

    Our two-dollar-based workup for Friday showed an investment of $8 with a return of $81. It’s an outrageous return-on-investment, of course, but if we add the $14 lost on the Saturday card, (none of our seven suggested contenders won), our profit is $59.   

    Now let’s add any win tickets we played from our Cal-Expo Pick-4 experience. Our $1 ticket cost us $4 (there was one scratch from our suggested $8 ticket). We lost but we played horses on the ticket to win if they were 4-1 or up. This means we played You Go Shirl (21-1) and Mow Em Down (53-1), adding $2 to our investment. 

    Our two-dollar-based workup for the two days showed an investment of $26 with a return of $81. That’s $55 profit. This is how we do workups no matter how many or how few horses we play. As I said, this example includes every contender we suggested, not that we would play them all—based on closing odds—and if we show a two-dollar-based profit this way we can be sure we made a profit using a betting scheme based on our judgment for overlays.  

    Keeping records is extremely important, as we continually emphasize, so that you understand if you are winning or losing in the long run. Workups can show great profits over the course of a weekend or a week but what matters is the extent of the playing season. Exotics should also be accounted separately.  

    Our exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog is clocking the “Crown”-eligible contenders (results, archives at Hambletonian Society) right to the the elimination rounds program at Woodbine in late October. Those two weeks of elims and finals will be covered live on TwinSpires while we work as the U.S. headquarters for all the live action. Special deals will be available at TwinSpires, so keep in tune with those pages as well as these TwinSpires blogs.  

    Following us on Twitter offers you late picks on races not included in this blog and updates on choices we speak about here. As well as tweeting some profit-making plays, we leave some links and guide you to news and information.

    Harness News

    We warned you to watch out for horses trained and/or driven by Gerald Longo at the current Colonial Downs meet because his horses win under the radar of many players. On Wednesday, Sept. 28, Longo won with Ice Express, paying $26. It was one of only five horses he raced last week, tossing a two-dollar-based profit on Longo-trained horses. Watch for these Longo entries: ZZZT, Andi Rose and Free Parkin Behind in next week’s programs. 

    Heart problems are surfacing as problems for some top pacers. It was discovered that See You At Peelers, the season’s top soph-pacing filly, is being treated for “inflammation of the heart, caused by a virus, which can reportedly be treated by medication.”  

    She might be able return for the Breeders Crown in late October. She has not raced since Sept. 4, when she was placed second at Tioga Downs after having won. Trainer Jimmy Takter has kept her in training while being treated for the malady. 

    Broad Bahn, this year’s Hambletonian winner, who has not won since that race and recently scared his connections with a strange tanking in the Canadian Trotting Classic, has been diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat. Noel Daley, his trainer, said that the condition can come and go, and he didn’t know if it would cause a problem in the Oct. 2 Kentucky Futurity. “Bahn” lost that race but the condition has not been blamed. Time will tell if Bahn shows up for the Breeders Crown in a few weeks. 

    We loved On The Glass in the Milton Stakes elim and she made a forward move but finished second and lost a berth in the final. On Oct. 2 she won an Allerage Stakes for older pacing mares at 29-1 ($60 to win). You have to keep an eye on horses we suggest for more than one race; be forgiving, for often they give back with a vengeance.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Frosh-Soph Stakes Action Abounds

    POSTED Sep 14, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    Mid-September is the overture for the Delaware, Ohio fair’s Grand Circuit stop, concluding with the historic Little Brown Jug. More details on our coverage of that week will be available in our weekly update edition, Monday, Sept. 19, the day after the fair launches.  

    The Breeders Crown-eligibles, meanwhile, continue to appear in stakes that are covered here and in our exclusive blog, Breeders Crown Countdown. Be sure to check the Countdown blog after you peruse this one for further important race information. The results, as well, about eligible contenders, will be available regularly at the Hambletonian Society website’s area for the “Crown.”  

    This Saturday, Sept. 17, TwinSpires offers bonus points on the Mohawk program. This promotion is open to all TwinSpires players only. There are 10X points awarded for wagers made on these three races: William Wellwood, Peaceful Way and Canadian Trotting Classic. See our analysis’s below.  

    ‘Moni’ Money


    At the Meadows on Friday, Sept. 16, a soph-filly trot named after one of the great femme trotters of the sport, Moni Maker, offers $233,400. Nine classy ladies will contest the five-eighths mile for the lioness’s share of that pot.  

    At press time Dave Palone is the listed driver on the duo that will attract the bulk of the bets, with the one he chooses probably getting favoritism. The “Palone” factor at the Pittsburgh track could leave some room for value with Beatgoeson Hanover. The only win-less gal here is Lady Rainbow, who has earned the most money regardless of not getting to the winner’s circle. Watch for those two to take the Palone ponies down.

    Consolations


    Two $50,000 consolations for finals at Mohawk go Friday, both for frosh trotters. The boys and girls are seven deep each for the “Wellwood” and Peaceful Way consolations.  

    The colt situation seems easy enough, though how these horses will be bet is unknown. Melt In Your Mouth almost made the final. His elimination was a superior mile compared to his foes in this event. “Melt” broke at the start, which was common behavior for the bulk of this field. However, Melt regained full stride and went on to finish fourth by 3 lengths. He was 29-1. The favorite for one elim, Guccio, is here but having busted twice in the same race while carrying all those bets makes him unworthy of a chance tonight.  

    The filly mile will somehow come up with a favorite. But we like the trips in last week’s elims from Bavade and Talbotcreek Jewelry. The former was clean-gaited through the race and gained a bit in the stretch, finishing fourth by 8 lengths at 57-1. “Talbot” was 37-1 and made two distinctive moves, no small feat for a green trotting filly.  

    Mohawk Mobs


    A bundle, $447,000, awaits the frosh-filly trotters in the Peaceful Way Final.   

    After her first loss, Check Me Out winds up with post 10 in this lucrative mile. We don’t know how that loss spooked the gal but we have to look elsewhere for value, anyway, since even with post 10 we won’t be getting any bargains on her.  

    We have been partial to Miss Paris since she began with bravo at the Meadowlands. This blue-blooded gal is in a good spot here to win (a reasonable price?). If you have the gall to toss “Check” out and you like the price on “Paris,” consider exotics with Aunt Mel, Win Missy B and Xquisite Chocolate.  

    The William Wellwood is worth $469,000. Ten young frosh colts will battle, three of them tutored by Jimmy Takter. The best of the three elims last week was the trips by American Gangster and The Game Plan. They both came first over and were strong late. Still, The Game Plan could be the overlay of the group. His trainer, John Kopas, is a veteran and a local (as driver Jack Moiseyev is, these days, too) but the Takter tots may attract all the money. “Game” won at 5-2 and could be more here. In exotics, we could use Prestidigitator, the other Kadabra-sired boy, for a promising payoff.   

    Open mare pacers are battling again, this time at Mohawk in elims for the Milton Final. We have one we like in each elim, judge for yourself if they are worthy of win bets. In elim one, On The Glass should be coming around now and this is the perfect place for her to strike up one last streak before the season ends. In the second elim we like, again, Anndrovette. You might not get the kind of money she paid for us a few weeks back but you may be surprised what she offers against Dreamfair Eternal.  

    For the Canadian Trotting Classic rundown, check the Breeders Crown Countdown blog.

    On Saturday, Balmoral Park hosts Super Night, the annual gathering of the best Illinois-breds in high stakes action. Also on Sept. 17, there is classy frosh action at Indiana Downs with The Elevation (frosh-colt pace in two divisions) and Kentuckiana Stallion Management stakes (frosh-filly pace).  

    American Jewel will rule the wagering in the “Kentuckiana,” so looking for an upset could be moot. We keep trying to beat her with Podges Lady but it looks as if that would not be such a good price, anyway. The two colt stakes divisions are loaded. Sweet Lou is the dead-on favorite in the first and A Rocknroll Dance is the choice to take down field two.  

    Follow me on Twitter for updates down to the last minute and a whole lot of fun with world news, pop culture and more.  

     (Ray Cotolo assisted in this edition.)

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 9-12-11

    POSTED Sep 11, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    It’s always difficult to describe the weekends that almost exploded. Certainly after the dead-on weekend before, where we nailed double-digit winners that pumped up the bankroll, it is hard to hear the echoes of “What have you done for me lately.”  

    This weekend, we washed out, literally and figuratively, as the rains of Hurricane Lee invaded our personal workspace and closed some tracks in this East Coast tri-state area. Tioga Downs was forced to cancel its racing (“Lee” had been downgraded to a Tropical Depression but was still raging a stormy path up the inner coast). This caused the $342,875 Cane Pace to move to Pocono Downs, where oddly enough the floodwaters were bad but already receding.  

    The move put the traditional half-mile pacing-triple-crown event that was going to be raced on the near-mile to a five-eighths mile and if affected the event greatly. A few good colts in the event, including our choice, Powerful Mist, were forced to make sweeping brushes early in the race. Pocono’s tight turns made it easy for Betterthancheddar to win despite leading the pack into a sizzling first quarter. He surrendered the lead to Shadyshark Hanover and was given a perfect pocket to rest as “Shadyshark” negotiated three-quarters in a startling 1:20.4 (remember, this is a five-eighths track).  

    “Better” simply closed in the open-stretch lane and passed Shadyshark. “Mist,” our choice at almost 8-1, made up significant ground, going from sixth to third in the final strides. Better was 4-1. Favorite Roll With Joe suffered from making a three-wide move at three-quarters, which is a fatal move for so many good horses at this oval.  

    The Cane Pace is followed by the Little Brown Jug (Sept. 22) and the Messenger Stake (Nov. 12) in making up the Pacing Triple Crown. Ten horses have won the Pacing Triple Crown, with the most recent being No Pan Intended (2003).  

    The accompanying filly stake, the Shady Daisy, also moved to Pocono. However, the two divisions were presented as non-betting events. Therefore, we could not have lost the pair, which we suggested include wagers on Ms Malicious (seventh) and Whats New Pussycat (sixth).  

    Our only winners this weekend began with a miserable payer. On Friday at Freehold, in the “Smith” for filly trotters, Firstclassprincess won and paid $2.60. In the Smith for fellas, our choice at 25-1 finished fourth.  

    If you were following us on Twitter you could have nailed one of Friday’s Kentucky Sires Stakes finals at The Red Mile. We gave out Gym Tan Laundry, which won and paid $13.40. We had two close calls, Celebrity Lovin (10-1) was second and 19-1 Sandra Volo, who finished third.  

    At Mohawk, Saturday night, favorites mauled our choices. We almost won with Westwardho Hanover, who finished third. This guy should blow ‘em away next time after the extra-mile he put in to be third. He was left at the gate, spotting the field at least 10 lengths. In the stretch, he altered his course when he had no room to close and was firing full engines in the final strides.  

    Charlie De Vie broke in his Canadian Trotting Classic elim and Manofmanymissions didn’t, so we lost. “Charlie” may still be as good as “Man” in many ways but cannot stay on target to prove it often. In the other elim, the duel we hoped would allow Whatever It Takes to win never surfaced. It was a tight finish, though, with a blanket of horses, including our choice, across the wire. The favorite won by a nose.  

    We hope you collected tons of points wagering on Indiana Downs this past Saturday night and we’re sorry we could only produce two winners. Sheza Cool Cookie paid much less than we imagined, $5.40, and Go On BB was no bargain at $2.80. In the thick of it, we gave you three seconds, Trottin Tiger, Flight Elal and Fitz Bow.  

    Following us on Twitter allows you to keep checking our tweets for harness updates and picks too late to be included in the blogs. You can join Twitter or just peruse if you want to get the kind of info and opinion no other harness-Twitter account offers you. As well as tweeting some profits, we have some fun.

    Harness News

    See You At Peelers won’t take on the boys in The Little Brown Jug, according to trainer Jimmy Takter.  

    “Peelers,” who lost her second race at Tioga Downs in a New York Sires Stakes division last week on a disqualifcation, was taken in for a physical exam to be sure she was sound during this tough campaign.   

    A source from inside the sport that spoke to us under the condition of anonymity, said, “The last two drivers with Peelers have been horrendous as she has been gutted to the half in unbelievable fractions. What these good drivers fail to realize, since they have driven the best horses in the world, is that this is a three-year-old filly, albeit a extremely talented one, she is still just a filly.  

    “Not to many world champion mares, even with 60 starts under their belts, could have handled fractions like that. The little girl has had only 22 starts and hasn't been pressed until recently.  

    “When she came off the turn in her last race she had the exact same expression as Niatross had just before he went over the hub rail at Saratoga. His exhaustion was from being sick with a temperature of 102 but Peelers was from having an empty tank and being used too hard too early. I hope they take it easier with her and don't gut her in the next couple of starts.  I still shake my head when I think about Tarport Hap dropping dead at the Meadowlands after she had won her eighth straight. Not only does it take the heart right out of the horse, it takes the heart right out of you. So... a line from Moonstruck: ‘Somebody tell a joke!’”

    Keep up to date with the Breeders Crown by following our exclusive blogs, the Breeders Crown Countdown and the news we report at the website for the Hambletonian Society.
    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Sophs, Froshes Fightin’ For Big Cash

    POSTED Aug 24, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    This weekend the younger divisions head north, south and west for lots of stakes action and more second-half season prestige. Weekend features begin in New York at Vernon with the launching of the traditional Kindergarten Series legs for frosh trotters of both sexes. The weekend stakes end in New York at Tioga on Sunday, Aug. 28 with soph trotters.  

    On Aug. 28, all races at Tioga earn a TwinSpires player 10X points—10 points for every dollar wagered. The classic “Zweig” stakes is included on the program, bringing together the Hambletonian-class and “Oaks”-class groups.  

    In the middle of the New York, to the north features are stakes at Mohawk and in the Midwesk, a pair of them surface at Balmoral. Let’s get to the suggested contenders in all of the weekend’s presentations.  

    On Monday, Aug. 29 the “standardbred equivalent” to Zenyatta, See You At Peelers, is set to come from post 9 in the Nadia Lobell at the Meadows, looking for her 23rd-straight win.   

    Young Guns


    Friday, Aug. 26, Vernon is the latest home for the Kindergarten Series launch, offering the first program of divisions (others will take place at other tracks).  

    In frosh-colt-trotting action, undefeated Vic Smith should be challenged by our choice, Big Chocolate. He has been racing in the same company as “Vic” but will not be the favorite in this small field, the first division.  

    A Penny Earned will mount a ton of support in the second split but Blazed should go two for two for the Antonacci family as a second choice in the wagering, which is also our choice.  

    The third colt split must belong to the Bruce Saunders-trained Highland Yankee, a first-time starter with a qualifier faster than all the others in the field. It’s an instant play if you agree to what should be a very low win mutuel. Taxman is the horse to watch for an upset in here. He was hung in a New York Sires Stakes event where betting was prohibited. He lost positioning in the stretch but came back to finish second. He may adapt well to the seven-eighths oval.  

    Filly trotters are next, all of them maidens, and the Antonaccis should have the edge with the Donato Hanover gal Alexandria Lindy. Angel Eyes Hanover is one to watch. She worked for the lead in the stretch and cleared approaching the clubhouse turn at Chester. She dueled around the far turn and gave way to Playwear Hanover and had to settle for second. She may do better this week.   

    Then, in filly-division two, Pretend To Be Nice has a mark on a half-mile track and could be overlooked by “speed players.” She is from good connections that are having national trotting stakes success. Sandra Volo could be the betting choice. She won a Stallion Series division at Chester at 26-1.  

    Finally, in filly-division three, a Chocolatier first-time starter, Mrs D, has been qualifying like she wants to add to the sire’s great frosh-filly roster of success (remember Crème De Cocoa, to name one). She gained 16 lengths in a qualifier and trotted the mile in 2:01.2. Take a shot with her. Holier Than Thou deserves some attention, too. She was hung last out and did not fade, so she could be coming up to a good effort.  

    On Saturday night, Aug. 27, Mohawk activates the frosh festivities with elims for the big purses in next week’s Metro Stakes (the pacing colts) and She’s A Great Lady Final (the filly pacers).  

    A score of semi-green colts wish to advance to the million-dollar final, so three elims will adorn the program.    

    In the first Metro elim, Major Bombay will be the likely odds-on favorite. But be warned we don’t respect him as much as many others. The Woodrow Wilson win completely set up for “Bombay,” allowing for him to make a move less impressive than it looked.  

    D Terminata knows the Mohawk surface well and is the one to watch. He lost by a neck to Hurrikane Kingcole, who paced the fastest Nassagaweya division last week. Post 7 should be no problem for him.  

    In the second elim, Speed Again and I Fought Dalaw will be the top betting interests. Shakerattlenrock is the horse to watch. The full brother to Pretty Katherine paced an impressive mile in the Nassagaweya but lost to Speed Again. “Shake” had to wait for room to circle out and was charging after “Again” but had to settle for second.  

    In the final elim, Mel Mara, Hurrikane Kingcole and Special Blend should all be bet well. Allstar Legend, however, will be under bet and is the horse to watch. He gapped cover in the “Wilson” and still made a huge close to finish fifth.   

    In the first She’s A Great Lady, American Jewel is the one to beat. If she is a fair-priced favorite, use her. If she is not, stay away from the race.  

    In the only other elim, the Sweetheart champion Pirouette Hanover is the likely favorite. Podges Lady made two moves in the Sweetheart, one to take the lead and the other to survive first-over pressure, making her the horse to watch. 

    American-Nationals


    For years, many of the best horses have made one of their stops the American-National stakes in Illinois. This year the stars feature Crys Dream, Lady Rainbow and Wincinnatti.  

    In the $121,500 three-year-old filly American-National, Crys Dream will be heavily bet. But Lady Rainbow could be ignored as is often the case. She was blind-switched in the Hambletonian Oaks and still made a late trot to finish second. She may be the best.  

    In the $108,500 three-year-old colt American-National, Whit and Swan In A Million will be bet. But for value, GJ Photo Victory may bring a price. He beat Illinois’ best trotter, Anthonyskywalker, at Springfield. “Victory” gained 14 lengths on the fair mile and won by 11. He may do even better at Balmoral.  

    Sign Of The ‘Z’


    Some of the Hambo cast returns to Tioga on Sunday, where TwinSpires players get 10X points for every dollar wagered on the program. The feature is the Dr. Harry Zweig Memorial.  

    This event was traditionally the week-after-the-Hambo stakes for this division, when the race was held at the Saratoga, N.Y. fairgrounds. Now it is the feature after The Colonial but still offers a big purse. This year it is estimated at $235,000 and Hambo-champ Bold Bahn is set to return in another joust with Manofmanymissions. This time, Charlie De Vie is also scheduled to race (he didn’t make the Hambo final).  

    The Oaks winner, Bold And Fresh, is reported to be the headliner of the $120,000 (set.) filly “Zweig.” Since no draws were made by press time, please watch our Twitter page for recommendations.   

    Wise Old Pacers


    This stalwart batch of older pacers pound the ovals weekly for the best money in town and here they are doing it again, this time in Canada, earning their berths for the Canadian Pacing Derby Final next week with two elims on Aug. 27.  

    We have to love Foiled Again one more time. He was part of our upset exacta with Alexie Mattosie on closing night the Big M and he was closing near well enough to win and pay more than he ever should pay. He may be a price here, too, in the first elim.  

    The second split is a great place for Aracache Hanover to extend the early foot he displayed last week in New Jersey. Mohawk is a better track than Woodbine to rate a mile wire to wire; so, we feel this guy has a shot at it over the obvious choices. Eliminations are the events for upsets than finals, considering the best horses can lose an elim and still get to the big show. These veterans are well aware of that.  

    Follow me on Twitter for updates down to the last minute.  

     (Ray Cotolo assisted in this edition.)

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 8-15-11

    POSTED Aug 14, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    We faired well as the second half of the harness season launched in North America, featuring success in the U.S.A. and Canada.  

    The long weekend took shape Saturday night at the Meadowlands when our New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) finals produced a winner, an exacta and a triple, all in the same event. The soph-filly pacers’ $175,000 final presented, as we predicted, a giant favorite in Krispy Apple. However, we warned about a return to good form for Pretty Katherine and to use Myluvmylife. The latter failed for us on Hambo day but was all out in the NJSS final.  

    “Katherine” looked like she was going to gun down “Apple” and soar home first but “Myluv” came wide and strong (at 2-1) to nail her. Katherine, who went off more than 10-1, was second, leaving Apple third. Although Myluv came in shorter than we wanted, those two were our choices and combined for a $57.60 exacta. With Apple third, the triple came back $123.20, enough to cover the weekend’s action with a profit.  

    Sunday at Flamboro the two-heat Confederation Cup also confirmed our suspicions about the touted choice, Up The Credit. Since winning the North America Cup, “Credit” has been favored in most of the stakes where he appeared and each time we looked elsewhere for a winner and we were correct.  

    He’s a good colt but the “North Cup” was a trip event, with a bias, and winning it this year did not define greatness for the winner (in the past, horses like Precious Bunny and Rocknroll Hanover were significant champs). So, we looked for the best horse that would also offer some value.  

    Our first choice, Bestofbest Hanover, finished fifth in his elim heat, just enough to make the final. But in the final he was 5-1 and did his best as Credit could not even finish the race without galloping. “Bestof” paid $12.60 to win.  

    Our second choice was Mystician, who made the final and cut the mile until Bestof beat him. That exacta returned $77.  

    At my Hoof Beats blog I restated something I have been talking about for years, the matter being the Hambletonian as a “key” race. Thoroughbred players know the key-race concept, that a great field can produce many winners in their next outing. The Hambletonian almost always spins off into races where you can take the winner to the bank no matter where in the classic he or she finished.  

    It began already, as colts from the final and the elims have been scorching miles, some less than a week after the Aug. 6 final. The Hambo favorite, Manofmanymissions, was in the mix of the NJSS this past weekend and won from post 10. His gait was smooth and relentless (he broke in the Hambo trying to trot down our choice, eventual winner Broad Bahn, and finished eighth). Also winning were Bambino Hall (pictured left) and Big Rigs. Watch for the next two races including Fawkes, Opening Night, Chapter Seven, Whit, Whiskey Tax, Luckycharm Hanover and Magnum Kosmos. Also, some that did not make the final from elims, including Charlie De Vie.  

    Thank you all for following us on Twitter. Please continue for all harness updates and join if you want to get the kind of info and opinion no other harness-Twitter account offers you. As well, we have some fun.

    Harness News

    See You At Peelers scratched from a race at Tioga on Aug. 14, so she is still in pursuit of her 22nd-straight victory. The cause for the scratch was the condition of the track, which was labeled “sloppy.” Trainer Jimmy Takter said he didn’t think she liked the surface when she was warming up so he took her out of the event. She is scheduled to start at Chester on Aug. 21 in the $350,000 Valley Forge Pace as her campaign toward meeting the boys in The Little Brown Jug this September continues.  

    Aug. 21 is the fourth edition of Super Stakes Sunday at Chester. The Pennsylvania track will host $2 million in stakes, including sophs in the Battle of the Brandywine, trotters from the Hambo trail in the Colonial Trot and lucrative consolations for the main events. We will be on top of those events in our Thursday blog.

    Due to the recent tragedy at the Indiana State Fair, the Grand Circuit racing program scheduled for Friday, Aug. 19, at the Indiana State Fair will now be held at Indiana Downs on Thursday, Aug. 18 with an 11 a.m. post time. The main events in that program include the Fox Stake, Hoosier Stakes, The Horseman and the Ralph Wilfong.

    We are intensely following the second half of the season rolls toward the Breeders Crown events, this year at Woodbine in Canada. Our “Crown” Countdown will begin soon.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 8-8-11

    POSTED Aug 7, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    We hope those of you who took part in the Hambletonian-day Players’ Pool had fun while following the stream of action we developed from the bankroll. It was not an easy day for players, even creative players like us, and, having been on site and in the thick of the horsemen involved we can tell you it was not an easy day for them, either.  

    First, though, the success, which came in the main event. If you have been following our exclusive Hambletonian Trail blog since May, you know that we have made a good deal of money from this year’s Hambletonian winner while he was heading for the classic. We even liked and wrote about him at two, before he was injured and forced out of the Breeders Crown.   

    Broad Bahn was our Hambo choice and we played him heavily in the Players’ Pool. Defying a strong bias against speed on Aug. 6, he went wire to wire to beat both race favorites and pay $14.60 (pictured left). 

    The race went very much as we predicted. The unreliable gait of the public choice, Manofmanymissions, came into play when that cold challenged the leader, Broad Bahn, in the stretch. Broad Bahn was putting him away when the favorite made a misstep and broke. He finished eighth. The second choice, Chapter Seven, tried to close on a course favoring closers but could not make any progress.  

    The colt we picked for third in the triple, Opening Night, finished third. Unfortunately, our choice for second, Fawkes, broke in the second turn. The place horse, Whiskey Tax, took advantage of the chaos and got the second spot, just holding off Opening Night.  

    The Hambletonian winner was driven by George Brennan. One race before the main event, Brennan came from behind with Bold And Fresh, a huge outsider at 24-1 to win the “Oaks.” She just got there as a swift-closing Lady Rainbow (one of our choices) stormed on the outside to be second at 12-1. Speed would be a victim again in this race, just as it was in races 1 through 7. Things lightened up a bit for the speed horses after the Hambo but bettors were still victims of some close calls.  

    Over the years some great horses, trotters and pacers, have fallen to the Meadowlands mile on the first Saturday in August and this year had its share of failures, too. All of the following horses faltered but should not be dismissed in their next starts:  

    Miss Paris, Big Chocolate, Aracache Hanover, Il Villaggio, Jezzy, Hey Mister, Lady Rainbow, Hypnotic Blue Chip, Androvette, Rock N Soul and Southern Sport. Hambo-day horses are poised to return in other events to get the job done.   

    That you all for following us live on Twitter, though there was some technical difficulty early in the card. Please continue to follow me for all harness updates.

    Harness News

    Jeff Gural, the man who led the team that would keep the Meadowlands open as it went from a state to private facility, spoke to harness racing industry people representing 17 countries at the World Trotting Conference. He outlined the huge changes that the one-time flagship track will undergo in coming years.

    He called the Meadowlands “obsolete,” a facility “built for a different era” that is “too big now for the crowds it draws.” Gural talked about the plans that include dismantling the entire structure and replacing it with a modern building to be constructed on the other side of the old one. He offered a graphic depiction of what will be a plant more like the two he runs now, Tioga and Vernon in New York.

    Many of Gural’s ideas about making the sport more attractive to bettors and fans, ideas he has championed to the industry for two decades, will come to play with the new Meadowlands. He is going to make horses sired by four-year-olds ineligible to major stakes, for one. “We need to keep horses from retiring at the end of their three-year-old season,” he said. Gural is finally getting this concept to become a buzz, asking other tracks and the Hambletonian Society (which handles many big stakes) to seriously consider the policy.

    Before the Meadowlands closes this season, frosh-colt pacers will battle for the prime prize of summer in the Woodrow Wilson stake. Elims should be necessary and will be held on the penultimate weekend of the meet. It will be the closing feature in two weeks.

    Glamour-boy pacers’ next contest is the Confederation Cup at Flamboro Downs. This is one of the rare races where elimination heats take place on the same day as the final. We will cover that in our Thursday blog so you can be ready for it on Aug. 14.

    Plenty of stakes are coming as the second half of the season rolls toward the Breeders Crown events, this year at Woodbine in Canada. Our “Crown” Countdown will begin soon.

    Cartoon by Thom Pye