• The future is in five weeks

    POSTED Mar 31, 2012
    I've been saying for awhile that I think this is a good group of three-year-olds, and today's Florida Derby did nothing to dissuade me of that.

    After all, the first Grade 1 race of the year for three-year-old males was won by the horse with the second-fastest BRIS Speed Rating (among his generation) so far this year, so the bigger surprise in retrospect is that Union Rags was 2-to-5, not that he lost.

    Granted, my opinion going into the Florida Derby was that Union Rags is best, and after he couldn't get past Reveron--let alone Take Charge Indy--I'm changing that opinion to "among the best" in a quintet that also includes Hansen, Take Charge Indy, I'll Have Another, and Creative Cause.

    What does this mean for the final Kentucky Derby future wager? It's difficult to have too strong of an opinion right now since what happens in the Louisiana Derby will effect the odds, but I'm definitely interested in Bodemeister, Howe Great, I'll Have Another, My Adonis, On Fire Baby, and Secret Circle at these prices. Best-case scenario for me to secure those prices is a win from Mark Valeski or Cigar Street, which would certainly spur interest in the former individually or the latter via the field.

    Speaking of Cigar Street being part of the field, there was plenty of discussion regarding whether horses like Cigar Street, Holy Candy, Paynter, and Street Life should be individual interests, and the consensus thought was that $0 graded earnings at this stage is just too much a roll of the dice to include in the field of 23. Seeing horses like News Pending perform as poorly as he did makes me wish Cigar Street were in there, but he could finish a good third in a 13-horse field in a $1-million race and still not make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

    I hate the "wide open Derby" cliche--mainly because most people use it to describe a weak year, but I think this is a good group that should put on some great shows in the coming weeks.

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