The future is in nine weeks
Had a good discussion with blog colleague Derek Simon on his Simon Says podcast regarding pool 2 of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands future wager and what value might be available.
As we did in regard to the first pool, we disagree on where the value could be in pool two, but we both agree that value is likely somewhere and that I'm a schmuck for getting too heavily invested in the first pool, as many of the horses I bet three weeks ago will be a similar price this weekend. I.e., I likely received no premium for wagering on Midnight Transfer, Take Charge Indy, or Rousing Sermon a month early.
But just like poker, money already committed to the pot really isn't yours anymore unless you win it back, so I can't let the money bet on pool 1 deter me from playing value in pool 2. If I liked my pocket 8s before the flop, then a 2-4-6 shouldn't scare me too much.
The "all bets" tab shows my current action. I have invested $130 into this year's Kentucky Derby, including future wagers booked in Las Vegas. I will likely press on I'll Have Another and make judgment calls on the others based on my line.
Of the new shooters to pool 2, I have the most interestin Scat Man and Secret Circle if they get ignored. Like most people I see the Field and Union Rags as the most likely outcomes, but they will be overbet. I dislike Battle Hardened and Gemologist about as much as you could any graded stakes winner at this point in the game and hope that they get overbet to help prices elsewhere.
I normally don't play the exacta just because it's an extra layer of trickiness, and I have a difficult time gauging value there, but I would consider a Union Rags/Field box if the price somehow ends up to be 30-to-1 each way.
The biggest short term variable to all this is what Hansen does in the Gotham. On a personal level I wouldn't upgrade his chances past 15-to-1 from 20-to-1 even with an impressive win on Saturday, but others would which means more potential for value elsewhere. As a futures player who doesn't like him in the Derby, a big win nine weeks out would be fine by me.
The only Oaks future wager (as opposed to a Derby trio) is this weekend, and I will be paying close attention to the odds of Yara and Zo Appeal coming out of races last weekend at Gulfstream. The Las Virgenes on Saturday at Santa Anita should also provide some clues, but I have to think good performances in that heat will be overvalued because of recency. I am plan to bet either Yara or Zo Appeal at 20-to-1 or better and would have problem betting them both at that price.
For free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, click here for the Derby future wager, here for the Oaks, and here for all three-year-olds nominated to the 2012 Triple Crown.
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