The greatest maiden race ever
As the racing world and Zenyatta fans anxiously await news of the Horse of the Year's first delivery, it is impossible to suppress memories of her brilliant career, which I consider to be the greatest by any older female in the history of Western Hemisphere racing.
That such a career happened to coincide with the greatest campaign by a three-year-old filly in the history of the American Turf was both exhilarating and spoiling for horse racing fans. Both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta were once-in-a-generation horses. I might see a few more of their ilk before I die, but the chance that they're around at the same time is unlikely.
That leads to a common lament of fans of both horses: Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta never faced each other on the racetrack. Will their foals?
About 31%-32% of each foal crop races as two-year-olds. I'm willing to round up and call it an even third given the success of the broodmares in question. If each foal has a 2-to-1 chance of racing as a two-year-old then there is an 8-to-1 chance that both would race, which isn't too bad.
Granted, Zenyatta did not debut until the fall of her three-year-old season, and Bernardini was relatively late to the races as well, but both came out running, and Bernardini's offspring have done well as two-year-olds (e.g. Stay Thirsty, To Honor & Serve). The sire of Rachel Alexandra's colt, Curlin, is similar to Bernardini in that he, too, debuted as a three-year-old before going on to win the Preakness and three-year-old male championship (Curlin also added Horse of the Year honors with a 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic victory, a race that eluded Bernardini the previous year when he was second to eventual Horse of the Year Invasor).
What anyone would really want, though, is for the two foals to run against each other--or at the very least to be good enough that there would be an opportunity for them to run against each other.
The Wynn Las Vegas race book got some good publicity by offering 60-to-1 that Rachel Alexandra's colt would start in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, and I expect that the casino will offer a similar prop when the sex of Zenyatta's foal is known. If it's a colt, and Avello sets a similar 60-to-1 line on his chances to make the Derby starting gate, then the odds both get in is 3,720-to-1.
But why wait to see how good they are(n't)?
Assuming that the Moss's will place Zenyatta's kin in the care of John Shirreffs and the Rachel Alexandra colt will be with Steve Asmussen for Stonestreet, it's not inconceivable that both foals will eventually find themselves stabled in Southern California. Santa Anita Park should begin planning for a maiden race on December 26, 2014, that would carry a $1-million purse if both foals show up.
It isn't completely out of line with the owners' ways of thinking. Jerry Moss has said before that maiden races should be worth $100,000 to give owners a better chance to recoup the cost of racing horses more quickly, and the late Jess Jackson made similar points about the value of overnight races.
The publicity surrounding either horse making it to the races would be immense, but it would be nothing compared to if they were able to do what their mothers didn't by racing against each other.
Obviously a lot can happen between now and then. If Zenyatta has a filly
then a maiden race is the best chance for the two foals to race,
anyway. Either could be two-year-old phenoms and win at Del Mar or Saratoga, and either could need more time and not start until their three-year-old seasons as both their sires did.
Still, such a maiden race would allow any track to cash in on the mares' star power. Remember when Sam Houston offered a big purse to try to lure a RA-Zen matchup? Why not throw the money out there now to generate excitement? I chose Santa Anita because of the calendar and proximity to trainers, but Sunland would be just as fun.
3 comments:
Zenyatta's brilliant career is indeed unforgettable. Every one of her races is exciting, especially those breathtaking final sprints. As a great racehorse, she not only won the race, but also won the hearts of countless horse racing fans. Now with her first baby about to be born, everyone is looking forward to the birth of a new generation of horse racing legends. In fact, many horse racing fans have begun to discuss Zenyatta's legend and how her offspring may perform in the future in the Telegram group. The horse racing community on Telegram中文版 provides a wealth of horse racing information and discussion platforms. Whether it is reviewing Zenyatta's peak moments or paying attention to the upcoming horse racing stars, the Telegram group is an indispensable communication place for horse racing fans.
Zenyatta's racing career is definitely one of the greatest in history. She not only conquered the track, but also changed people's perception of horse racing. As a great mare, every victory of hers has made people witness miracles. Now, horse racing fans are anxiously awaiting the birth of her first calf, hoping that her legend can continue. In the horse racing group on Telegram下载, everyone is discussing Zenyatta's great deeds and whether her offspring will be as brilliant as her in the future. Telegram provides a great platform for horse racing enthusiasts to share horse racing news, analysis and expectations at any time. Zenyatta's story will also continue to be passed on and discussed on these platforms.
Zenyatta's every race is exciting. She is not only a legend on the track, but also one of the brightest stars in the history of horse racing. Her career was perfect, especially in her later years, when she showed unparalleled stability and strength. Now everyone is paying attention to her first calf and looking forward to the birth of a new legend. The horse racing group on Telegram中文语言包 has become a popular platform for horse racing fans to communicate. Everyone can share memories of Zenyatta, discuss her great performances, and follow the latest developments about her offspring in real time. Telegram's instant messaging function allows horse racing fans to quickly obtain horse racing information and interact with fans around the world.
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