Showing posts with label maiden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label maiden. Show all posts

  • Pedigree handicapping with Brisnet.com's APR Online

    POSTED Jan 14, 2013 By Unknown
    It used to be detailed pedigree information was the domain of the horse industry professional--particularly those on the breeding side of things, but handicappers would do well to familiarize themselves with Brisnet.com's American Produce Records (APR) Online during a free trial through January 31.

    When I joined the staff of Thoroughbred Times in May 2002 I had been playing the races semi seriously for about four years but was not at all familiar with the depth of pedigree information out there. Sure, I had been using Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances since fall 1997 and had come to rely on its sire, broodmare sire, and first dam stats as a way to help handicap maiden, turf, and route races, but diving even deeper into a horse's pedigree was a true eye opener--like going from Daily Racing Form PPs to the Ultimates. "How did I ever handicap two-year-old races without this," I wondered. Sometimes, more really is more.

    APR Online puts Brisnet.com's entire pedigree database at your fingertips regardless of where those fingertips are. This product is easily accessible on a desktop, laptop, tablet, or mobile device, udpated daily, and includes more than 3-million pedigrees stemming from more than 900,000 dams, including European Produce Records dating back to 1960.

    So how does a handicapper use all this information? Well, that's where the free trial comes in. We all handicap differently--from the information we use (or don't use) to how much we weigh each variable. Some don't use pedigree at all, but as a multi-race player I don't have that luxury.

    I turn to pedigree information for one of two things: A) confidence in an overlaid single, and B) spot plays at big prices.

    It can be disconcerting to dope out a positive pedigree play only to find your horse open at even money. As my editor at Thoroughbred Times liked to say, "I can read the toteboard, too." But we only see the win odds for that race, meaning that there can still be value in playing these horses in multi-race wagers.

    This all began for me on August 10, 2002, which was not only my first visit to Ellis Park but also the day I became hooked on pedigree handicapping--talk about a watershed day in the life of a young horseplayer!

     I headed to Ellis that day to cover the Gardenia Stakes--my first "road" assignment as a staff writer with the now-bankrupt Thoroughbred Times. I had handicapped the whole card and was especially interested in race 5, a maiden special weight race for two-year-old fillies on the grass. Talk about a race ripe for pedigree handicapping: a ten-filly field with five first-time starters and all of them trying turf for the first time.

     I, along with most of the wagering public, landed on first-time starter Million Stars, a Buckram Oak Farm homebred by Henessy out of the Exclusive Native mare Million Stories. I singled her in all three Pick 3s I could play with her and was rewarded when she won by five lengths at 11-to-10 odds.

     Now obviously a $4.20 winner is no great shakes, but this was more about having the confidence to single a first-time starter in a full field and being rewarded for it, as the three Pick 3s I hit paid a combined $945 on about $100 in handle. So that 11-to-10 became nearly 17-to-2.

    Was Million Stars a cinch on paper before the race? Of course not. I could even argue that 11-to-10 in the win pool was kind of light, but for the way I play (especially with my bankroll 10.5 years ago) singling her there and going deep elsewhere made more sense than deep in her race and singling elsewhere.

    Without getting too much into it, four of Million Stars' six siblings (including Tubrock!) had won on grass and most were sprinters. That's OK, but one of the kickers was that another sibling--the Green Forest mare Nara--was unraced but had thrown several turf winners. Coupling the family's affinity for turf with a win-early and win-short sire like Hennessy with connections that couple pop at first asking (trainer Pat Byrne), and I was willing to hang my hat on this one.

    These types of opportunities present themselves every time a horse debuts, switches surfaces, or stretches out, and sometimes the opportunity isn't finding a horse to bet but one to bet against. If a debut runner favored in a two-year-old race has no family member to win at two or at first asking, then I'll consider a bet against at short odds.

     These things don't always work out, of course, but the information available in APR Online will increase edge, and in the long run that helps to equal profits. Check it out today.

  • Did Eblouissante offer value in her debut?

    POSTED Nov 20, 2012 By Unknown
    At the racetrack, value and not always beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Or, as my college newspaper editor, Robert Levine, used to say, "One man's gold is another's gonorrhea."

    Benoit & Associates photo
    Indeed, trying to scratch that itch with a "sure thing" at 7-to-5 can burn you, but passing on easy winners at what appear to be overlaid odds after the fact smarts, too, and the debut of Zenyatta's half sister, Eblouissante, on Friday at Hollywood Park offered the perfect backdrop of this handicapping conundrum.

    The base question is, what is the lowest odds at which a horse can truly offer value? Did Frankel offer value when 2-to-5 in the 2011 Queen Anne Stakes? I thought so and made a prime win bet on him. Would I have played at 1-to-5, though? Definitely not, and I know plenty of people who wouldn't have bet Spectacular Bid at 2-to-5 to win the 1980 Woodward.

     Eblouissante was far more generous in her debut, paying off at 7-to-5 in a race I thought she was even money to win while prepared to take 6-to-5. Of course, that "generous" modifier is my opinion, since plenty of pre- & post-race chatter involved calling her overbet.

    When I first looked at the race my impression was that trainer John Shirreffs would have her in peak form for an unraced late-season three-year-old filly. The BRIS Speed Rating par for the race was 89, a number only one other starter had come close to. Given Eblouissante's family's history and the string of workouts I was confident she could run atleast par.

     The final piece of the puzzle, though, was reading Andy Harrington's workout notes in his National Turf Clocker Report, which is available daily ($9.95) via Brisnet.com for Southern California tracks.
     
    EBLOUISSANTE Nov 11 HOL 5 :59.1H M FT    B+      
    Jet black powerfully built sort tracked a barnmate was asked some on the turn drawing away late while on own in 35.2, 59.3. Clearly has run, clearly fit (has turned in 45 drills since last year in preparation for debut). Think she can run as far as they card 'em. Was in blinkers; Blanc up. Like her sis she appears to have a mellow disposition.---Grade: B+
    EBLOUISSANTE Nov 5 HOL 6 1:15.1H M FT    B+      
    In blinkers; grand looker made a good run at barnmate Odeon and galloped out quite well while not asked in 38.1, 103.1, 115.0 out around the bend in 127.4. Not overly handy but can run forever.---Grade: B+
    EBLOUISSANTE Oct 19 HOL 6 1:14H M FT    B+      
    Corey up; noticeably caught hold midstretch running away from barnmate Cotton Belle finishing 3 clear in 37.3, 113.4. Much substance here.---Grade: B+
    As you can read, Andy liked what he saw, and these notes gave me the confidence to bet my opinion that Shirreffs had this one ready to roll and that a par effort for the class was likely. As it turned out, she bettered par by a few points with a 93 BRIS Speed Rating when winning easily by 4 1/2 lengths.


    The 7-to-5 price seemed more than fair both before and after the race, but some disagreed even after this tour de force, citing that her price was suppressed because of her family. I don't disagree that Eblouissante would have been a higher price if she weren't Zenyatta's half sister and/or hadn't been written about for the past year and a half, but I do disagree that the extra money because of that automatically makes her an underlay.

    Assessing her chances to win the race at 50% had nothing to do with knowing that there'd be a lot more casual money bet on her. Obviously I knew that was in play and a big reason I was so surprised at the 4-to-1 morning line, but just because she may have been 2-to-1 without the Zenyatta connection doesn't mean she didn't offer value at 7-to-5 if I thought she'd win 50% of the time.

    All this discussion is not to say that every favorite who wins by daylight is a good bet, but knowing Eblouissante would take casual money didn't automatically make her a bad bet either.

  • The greatest maiden race ever

    POSTED Mar 8, 2012 By Unknown
    As the racing world and Zenyatta fans anxiously await news of the Horse of the Year's first delivery, it is impossible to suppress memories of her brilliant career, which I consider to be the greatest by any older female in the history of Western Hemisphere racing.

    That such a career happened to coincide with the greatest campaign by a three-year-old filly in the history of the American Turf was both exhilarating and spoiling for horse racing fans. Both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta were once-in-a-generation horses. I might see a few more of their ilk before I die, but the chance that they're around at the same time is unlikely.

    That leads to a common lament of fans of both horses: Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta never faced each other on the racetrack. Will their foals?

    About 31%-32% of each foal crop races as two-year-olds. I'm willing to round up and call it an even third given the success of the broodmares in question. If each foal has a 2-to-1 chance of racing as a two-year-old then there is an 8-to-1 chance that both would race, which isn't too bad.

    Granted, Zenyatta did not debut until the fall of her three-year-old season, and Bernardini was relatively late to the races as well, but both came out running, and Bernardini's offspring have done well as two-year-olds (e.g. Stay Thirsty, To Honor & Serve). The sire of Rachel Alexandra's colt, Curlin, is similar to Bernardini in that he, too, debuted as a three-year-old before going on to win the Preakness and three-year-old male championship (Curlin also added Horse of the Year honors with a 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic victory, a race that eluded Bernardini the previous year when he was second to eventual Horse of the Year Invasor).

    What anyone would really want, though, is for the two foals to run against each other--or at the very least to be good enough that there would be an opportunity for them to run against each other.

    The Wynn Las Vegas race book got some good publicity by offering 60-to-1 that Rachel Alexandra's colt would start in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, and I expect that the casino will offer a similar prop when the sex of Zenyatta's foal is known. If it's a colt, and Avello sets a similar 60-to-1 line on his chances to make the Derby starting gate, then the odds both get in is 3,720-to-1.

    But why wait to see how good they are(n't)?

    Assuming that the Moss's will place Zenyatta's kin in the care of John Shirreffs and the Rachel Alexandra colt will be with Steve Asmussen for Stonestreet, it's not inconceivable that both foals will eventually find themselves stabled in Southern California. Santa Anita Park should begin planning for a maiden race on December 26, 2014, that would carry a $1-million purse if both foals show up.

    It isn't completely out of line with the owners' ways of thinking. Jerry Moss has said before that maiden races should be worth $100,000 to give owners a better chance to recoup the cost of racing horses more quickly, and the late Jess Jackson made similar points about the value of overnight races.

    The publicity surrounding either horse making it to the races would be immense, but it would be nothing compared to if they were able to do what their mothers didn't by racing against each other.

    Obviously a lot can happen between now and then. If Zenyatta has a filly then a maiden race is the best chance for the two foals to race, anyway. Either could be two-year-old phenoms and win at Del Mar or Saratoga, and either could need more time and not start until their three-year-old seasons as both their sires did.

    Still, such a maiden race would allow any track to cash in on the mares' star power. Remember when Sam Houston offered a big purse to try to lure a RA-Zen matchup? Why not throw the money out there now to generate excitement? I chose Santa Anita because of the calendar and proximity to trainers, but Sunland would be just as fun.