• Rebel weekend video previews

    POSTED Mar 16, 2012
    It's another exciting racing on the Triple Crown trail, as the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winds through Hot Springs, Arkansas, for the $500,000 Rebel Stakes.

    However, another big race on the docket is an $80,000 allowance race on Friday at Gulfstream featuring the three-year-old debuts of undefeated graded stakes winner Gemologist and Currency Swap.

    I discussed these two races with Triple Crown Insider and have one strong opinion: that Currency Swap will defeat Gemologist at what I figure will be overlaid odds on my selection (3-to-2 seems more than fair).

    I'm less bullish on the Rebel because it's the precarious situation where the most likely winner (Secret Circle) will be overbet, and the other two I could make a case for (Cyber Secret and Scatman) might be overbet as well.

    I don't anticipate the win pool to offer any value even with horses like Sabercat and Najjaar figuring to be underlays along with Secret Circle, but the exacta could if you share my opinion that Sabercat and Najjaar will be overbet in all pools. Even if Secret Circle is overvalued to win, he could still key some nice exotics with Cyber Secret or Scatman underneath.

    Toga the Tout agrees with me on Secret Circle being the most likely winner, but goes off course from me to tab his underneath horses.

    The Rebel is race nine in the 23-race Triple Crown SHOWdown series at TwinSpires.com, and 17 players still alive for the $1-million bonus by having selected eight consecutive show horses to date. Even if you're not alive for the $1-million, though, there is still a chance to win a share of a $10,000 prize pool that will go to those who make successful show bets on each of the Triple Crown races.
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