TwinSpires.com Blog

2014 Kentucky Derby Analysis

Name	Comments
California Chrome	Pros:	Top last-race BSF (4-25, +68% ROI since '92). Best overall LSRs. Won last race by 5+ lengths.
6-1 fair odds	Cons:	Typically doesn't gain ground on the turn; needs clean trip. Sire (Lucky Pulpit) has 6.40 AWD.
Vicar's In Trouble	Pros:	Big move on the turn in the Risen Star.
30-1 fair odds	Cons:	Weak final prep (2.5 Key Race Rating), big speed figure improvement last time makes him a bounce candidate, 5.00 Dosage Index and trainer Mike Maker has 0.36 IV in the Kentucky Derby.
Dance With Fate	Pros:	Solid juvenile base and good three-year-old form.
30-1 fair odds	Cons:	Sprint sire (6.33 AWD) and he lost position/ground from the first- to second-call last time (29-0-2-0 since 1992). Runs like a turf/AWS specialist.
Wicked Strong	Pros:	Improving LSRs, strong pedigree.
12-1 fair odds	Cons:	Brisnet speed figure in the Wood was 14 points superior to his next-best number.
Samraat	Pros:	Great juvenile form, very game and he's learned to rate.
10-1 fair odds	Cons:	No Brisnet speed figure progression this year.
Danza	Pros:	His performance in the Arkansas Derby was outstanding, featuring a negative ESR and a positive Pace Profile (10-of-98, +31.12% ROI since '92). He's also working well.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	Most recent BSF 17 points superior to previous figure; greater than 15-1 in final prep (60-0-2-3 since '92); Todd Pletcher's Derby charges tend to be underlays.
Hoppertunity	Pros:	Gradual improvement and a trainer (Bob Baffert) with a stellar record in the Run for the Roses (1.44 IV).
12-1 fair odds	Cons:	"The Curse of Apollo" — son of Any Given Saturday didn't race as a two-year-old. Kind of a plodder, doesn't accelerate quickly.
Intense Holiday	Pros:	Shows quick acceleration and is typically in the mix. May have been compromised by being closer to the pace last time.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	Louisiana Derby field of dubious quality (2.5 KRR). Has only two career wins — neither in Grade I company.
Wildcat Red	Pros:	Tough to get by in the stretch, with one win and two losses by a neck or less.
50-1 fair odds	Cons:	If it looks like a sprinter and runs like a sprinter, it's a sprinter. Wildcat Red has a 5.67 DI and unratable speed — not the ideal combination to get 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
We Miss Artie	Pros:	He's gained significant position and ground on the turn in each of his last two starts and recorded a positive Pace Profile in the Spiral.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	most recent BSF 13 points superior to previous figure; Todd Pletcher's Derby charges underperform their Derby odds 77% of the time (8-27, 0.80 IV).
Ride On Curlin	Pros:	Responded well after a rough trip last time and is reunited with Calvin Borel in Louisville.
25-1 fair odds	Cons:	Arkansas Derby had a 2.7 KRR and son of Curlin recorded his best BSF in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at ELP.
Chitu	Pros:	Top trainer and a game effort in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis.
50-1 fair odds	Cons:	Like Wildcat Red, this guy looks like an unbridled sprinter. Hard to imagine him getting the kind of trip he desires.
Tapiture	Pros:	Excellent juvenile form and he showed the ability to rate in the grade II Rebel.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	Last-race Form Rating less than 33% (61-0-2-1 since 1992) and trainer Steve Asmussen underperforms the tote board 83% of the time (0.64 IV) in America's greatest horse race.
General A Rod	Pros:	Very game, fast and possesses surprisingly good route breeding.
15-1 fair odds	Cons:	Trainer Mike Maker has been awful in the Derby and "General" has 8 Quirin speed points (Big Brown only winner since 2000).
Medal Count	Pros:	Trainer Dale Romans' charges have outrun their odds in three of his four Derby tries —  and two of those three (Paddy O'Prado and Dullahan) looked an awful lot like this guy.
15-1 fair odds	Cons:	Like Dullahan, Medal Count does most of his running late, which might leave the son of Dynaformer with too much to do in the stretch.
Candy Boy	Pros:	Steady improvement, ability to accelerate quickly mid-race and likely value, thanks to a too-close-to-the-pace effort in the SA Derby that led to an 8 3/4-length defeat by California Chrome.
8-1 fair odds	Cons:	Tactics aside, Candy Boy's most recent effort was hardly encouraging.
Uncle Sigh	Pros:	Raced well prior to throwing a clunker in the Wood.
75-1 fair odds	Cons:	Poor form and the apparent inability to rate makes this guy a very dubious proposition.
Vinceremos	Pros:	Well-bred WinStar colt.
99-1 fair odds	Cons:	He was beaten 10+ lengths in his last race (39-0-1-0 over the past 22 years) and, even if one were to look past that debacle, the son of Pioneerof the Nile looks too slow.
Harry's Holiday	Pros:	Good effort in the Spiral.
99-1 fair odds	Cons:	Atrocious recent form and his best race came in an ungraded sprint stakes at Turfway Park.
Commanding Curve	Pros:	Consistent improvement and the ability to move on the turn make him a threat. Trainer Dallas Stewart (2.03 IV in the Derby) adds to the appeal.
25-1 fair odds	Cons:	Only one win — a maiden affair at Churchill Downs — to his credit and a +2 ESR last time (3-of-103, -56% ROI since 1992).

Freshmen In Focus

Go to Breeders Crown Countdown.

Canadian Pacing Derby

Two eliminations for the Canadian Pacing Derby attract 15-hopefuls as they prepare to dash this weekend for spots in the final field.

Bolt The Duer seems to hold favoritism in division one, off of a world-record mile at Saratoga. Also in that field is Sweet Lou, coming off a third to A Rocknroll Dance in a world-record mile at Pocono. Sweet Lou is the kind of horse that can win eliminations against this caliber and going against this field he may not be a tremendous price but offer enough value for us to feel confident supporting him. 

Warrawee Needy and A Rocknroll Dance highlight the second elimination. Although those two draw the best over the rest of the field, Pet Rock is not one to throw out. He always finds his way into the race, whether he uses an early brush to the lead or a sweep past everyone late. He’ll likely be forwardly placed and save something for the stretch.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. 

The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires. 

H2W

Batavia
8/23/13, Marvelthisbliss R1
8/24/13. +Native Roots R3

Ocean
8/23/13, +Powerful Passage R5; Fandemoniom R10

Plainridge
8/24/13, +Go Go Cocomo R1 

Pocono
8/24/13, Raging Grin R2; Harbor Point R3; DM Bodatious R4; Cashendash Hanover R8; Drive All Night R11

Running Aces
8/24/13, +My Cover Girl R1; +Steph’s Place R3; +Poetic Movement R3; +Shark Standing R6; +Gift Of Honor R7

The Red Mile
8/24/13, Banco Solo R2; Ma Chere Hall R12

Tioga
8/23/13, Maggie O R1; Celebrity Spitfire R3; Cruise Queen R8
8/24/13, Strong Hope R6; Wisenheimer R9

Yonkers
8/23/13, EL Rock R3; Fox Valley Sage R4; Virgin Mary R9; JK Fine Art R11
 

Final Derby thoughts and what Orb's win means for racing

 

As the Kentucky Derby aftermath gives way to Preakness chatter, the story lines for the second jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown are becoming fairly well established with Orb's quest to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 certainly the main event.

Racing Hall of Fame trainer Claude R. "Shug" McGaughey is getting the bulk of attention among Orb's connections following the Derby win, but I expect the spotlight to shine brighter on co-owner Ogden Mills "Dinny" Phipps if Orb returns to New York with a chance at racing immortality. Phipps co-owns and co-bred Orb with his cousin, Stuart "no nickname" Janney.

In praising his trainer not only for the Derby win but also a fantastic career, Phipps said McGaughey does things "the right way," which implies that some don't. I was disappointed that the chairman of The Jockey Club, which has incredible power and influence in the Sport of Kings, used racing's biggest pulpit to tell the world that racing has some undesirables.

That's no secret, of course, but there is no single person in America in better position than Phipps to do something about it. If there are people doing it the wrong way--as his praise of McGaughey suggested--then what is The Jockey Club doing about it? Janney, by the way, is vice chairman.

Speaking of Phipps and The Jockey Club, he is a big reason America's Best Racing exists, and his commitment to promoting racing should be commended from all corners. He used the aforementioned influence to revitalize that part of the NTRA's mission, and while that initiative certainly doesn't deserve all the credit for increased Derby ratings, it'd be tough to argue that it didn't at least contribute to it.

All that said, it will be interesting to see Orb's future plans in light of the connections' commitment to promoting racing (in addition to all Phipps has done, Janney is a lifelong supporter, Shug is always generous with his time and beloved by the media, and the trainer's son, Chip, is a Brand Ambassador for ABR).

It can only be a good thing, then, that a breeder-owner who has committed so much to promoting the sport is in control of the career of its most popular athlete.

We're told time and again that racing needs its Triple Crown stars to race beyond their three-year-old years, so what an opportunity for racing to have Orb in the hands of someone so committed to the sport's promotion. The last non-gelded dual classic winner to race as a four-year-old was Real Quiet in 1999. Charismatic, Point Given, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Big Brown, and I'll Have Another all retired following their three-year-old seasons; Funny Cide raced beyond three but is a gelding.

I'm not as big on the "racing needs stars" argument, but at this point a prominent Triple Crown horse racing beyond his three-year-old season would be nice just for the novelty of it, let alone the star power. It'd be great for ABR, too.

Video previews of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands

Triple Crown Insider's preview of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

Bullet Train Pulls Into Derby Station

One thing about the new Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands points system: the buzz it generated certainly outweighed its practical use.

With a projected field of 19-20 entrants, there was no need for a mechanism to determine preference among 21-24 entries because all entries will be able to start.

That's not to say it didn't serve a purpose, though: Handle and interest in Derby Championship Series races (the 85- and 170-point races) was definitely up, and even for an "insider", the points system made it easier to follow the Derby trail. No more worrying about what a fifth-place finish paid in races that had no business being Derby preps (e.g. the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf).

Hopefully the connections of future Derby hopefuls learned something, too, because I think many got psyched out by the specter of needing a certain number of points (some predicted as many as 50!) to reach the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and any horse with more than 6 points could bump Fear The Kitten from this year's field.

Following the Florida Derby, champion Shanghai Bobby had earned 24 points, and many thought that wouldn't be near enough to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. His connections decided he would get some time off, but I wonder if they're ruing a missed opportunity now, as Shanghai Bobby easily would have made the field.

I was right about the number of points (or lack thereof) needed to get in the Derby, including thinking weeks ago that more than 20 might not even enter, but I was wrong about who would have the most points. That is, I didn't think the top points-getters would also be the wagering favorites, but that's definitely the case with 150-point earners Orb and Verrazano, who I see as first and second choice, respectively.


Going forward, it will be interesting to see which points-related statistics the industry and fans gravitate toward. Certainly they will help define key prep races year to year, but will records for most points by a trainer, jockey, sire, etc. enter the lexicon? What is the reasonable number of maximum points? 190? Will a filly try an open points race next year?

In this regard, the points system is superior to the graded stakes earnings scheme. History is being made before our eyes; we're just still waiting for the first horse to be excluded on points.

Derby drive time

One of my favorite big-event traditions is making a music play list for traveling, and my favorite play list to make is the Derby because it's me, the early morning dew, rolling pastures, and 75 minutes of music on Interstate 64 to kick off my week.

Here is this year's 2013 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands play list.

1. "Constructive Summer" by The Hold Steady
2. "High School Never Ends" The Dollyrots covers Bowling For Soup
3. "Born To Kill" by The Thermals
4. "Benson Hedges" by fun.
5. "Because I'm Awesome" Bowling For Soup covers The Dollyrots
6. "Sixteen Saltines" by Jack White
7. "Can I Get A..." by Jay Z
8. "I'm On Everything" by Bad Meets Evil (featuring Mike Epps)
9. "Thrift Shop" by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (featuring Wanz)
10. "Club Can't Handle Me" by Flo Rida (featuring David Guetta)
11. "Sacrilege" by Yeah Yeah Yeahs
12. "I Will Play My Game Beneath the Spin Light" by Brand New
13. "Origin of Love" by Mika
14. "Paradise By the Dashboard Light" by Meat Loaf
15. "Nassau Coliseum" by Lifter Puller
16. "Faster Than the Speed of Night" by Bonnie Tyler
17. "Where Are All the Scientists Now" by Jukebox the Ghost
18. "A Matter of Time" by Jukebox the Ghost         

Will wilcard weekend yield clues

When Churchill Downs unveiled its new points system to determine who could start in the Kentucky Derby (in the event that more than 20 enter the race), the Coolmore Lexington, Derby Trial, and Illinois Derby were written off as prep races because of the dearth of points each offered in the new scheme.

The Lexington and Derby Trial are part of a wildcard round of races that followed the Derby Championship Series where races offered 85 points in leg 1 and 170 points in leg 2 with virtual automatic berths guaranteed for winning a race in leg 1 (50 points) or finished first and second (100 & 40 points, respectively, in leg 2).

The wild card races are worth only 34 points each, and many thought that even a win (worth 20 points) wouldn't be enough unless a horse already had points. Fast forward to the evening of the first wild card race, and it's conceivable that a win all but assures a spot in the gate (and certainly one among the entries, which is capped at 24), and any points might be enough.

The Illinois Derby does not offer any points, but with the list of horses officially pointing for the Derby dwindling you might not need any to get in, anyway.

All that is my long-winded way of saying what looked like an "off" weekend on the Derby trail months ago now absolutely bears watching. It did, anyway, from a Triple Crown perspective, but I'm not ready to write these races off for the Derby considering you might not need any points, anyway.

One guy not looking ahead to this weekend from a Derby perspective is Joel Cunningham from Triple Crown Insider, who "solidified" his top ten for the Derby when the Derby Championship Series concluded. Not that I disagree with that approach. Even if a horse (or horses) who runs well this weekend does point toward the Derby it's tough to see him (or her in the case of Pure Fun)as a top ten player. The exception might be Sunbean.

   

One thing Joel talks about that I didn't think of until after watching the video, is how the next two weekends could affect the pace of the Derby. As of right now, hardly anyone would call it "blistering", but if Titletown Five goes from the Derby Trial (the final points race) to the Derby itself then that changes things considerably.

Because of the lack of points on the bottom end of the Derby leaderboard (and the possibility that 20 might not line up as of now), these next two weekends are anything but time off from prep watching.


But that doesn't mean it's time off from Derby handicapping, either. As Jill Byrne notes in the video above, 15 horses are already at Churchill Downs, and regardless of location, final preparations are well underway for those with Derby aspirations.

Your preparations can begin as well with the Ultimate Oaks-Derby Handicapping Package from Brisnet.com, which features six great products for just $25. And our Derby Betting Guide is already available. Check it out.

Bruno With The Works: Rydilluc In Focus

The 20 horses who will line up in the starting gate to run for the roses this year are horses like any of the other 28,000 Thoroughbreds born in 2010.

Some are homebreds: born and raised by the same owners in whose silks they run. Others are purchased through the auction ring, sometimes multiple times: I'll Have Another sold for $11k at the 2010 Keeneland Yearling sale and was "pinhooked" as a two-year-old in Ocala for $35k. That's a nifty profit in just seven months.

Few horses are purchased for vast sums at auction and go on to true greatness: $4-million yearling and eventual Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus is one of the rare exceptions. Several top horses actually didn't sell or had to be withdrawn: Sunday Silence was a $32k buy-back (or "RNA" for Reserve Not Attained); Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, who raced as a homebred for Team Valor, was a $100k RNA at the 2009 Keeneland sale.

Bodemeister was withdrawn from the 2011 Fasig Tipton Florida sale because the connections "knew he had the potential of being a star, but he simply wasn't going to bring the kind of money you wouldn't want to turn down," owner Ahmed Zayat told us.
This year, it's Rydilluc who has the interesting sales history: the beautiful bay son of Medaglia d'Oro was chased over a six month span by one very determined man who saw his potential.

Bred in Kentucky by Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds, Rydilluc was purchased out of the 2011 Keeneland Yearling sale for $55k by Straightaway Farms.

After learning the ropes in Ocala, the colt showed up in the Secure Investments consignment at the Palm Meadows Florida sale in March 2012. Racingwithbruno spent that winter in Florida and watched the future Rydilluc's pre-sale breeze in :10.3, and out 23 for a quarter. When it came to preview day, though, the colt didn't quite fire and worked in 11.1, 22.3, and galloped out in 35.4. Not a bad work by any means, but it wasn't enough for him to fetch his $90k reserve.

The colt would show up at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale several months later around Preakness weekend. He previewed much better over the tighter turns of the old racetrack in 10.3, 22, and galloping out in 36.4. Still not the prettiest of movers, the colt covered ground like a horse who would appreciate added real estate. Horses like him fool buyers because they take the whole quarter mile preview to get fully into stride.

One man who wasn't fooled was Gary Contessa. In his words, "I loved him and bid on him down in Florida," but decided to let him go when the price got too steep. The veteran trainer got a shot at redemption when he saw the Timonium catalog. "I was absolutely certain that I was the only one on him at $150k'' said Contessa. "I had to have him. I emailed everyone and told them this was their Derby horse," said a grinning Gary. It's evident that telling Rydilluc's story has become this trainer's new favorite pastime.

Contessa is an excellent conditioner known for training the likes of Runway Rosie, Sweet Vendetta, and Papi Chullo. He also campaigned Do It With Style, who famously won Keeneland's Grade 1 Ashland Stakes without a whip. Contessa is recognized as a major player at the two-year-old sales: a recent Blood Horse MarketWatch article ranked him second among Thoroughbred trainers over the past 15 years based on purchase price v. earnings.

It's not all about winning for Gary: his enthusiasm for the game is contagious. "I love having my family, my clients, the owners come out and see their horses train," he told us at Saratoga last year. "They get to see what their horses are up to and I love the company."

Contessa was the initial trainer of Peace Rules after buying the son of Jules for $35k, but he sold him to Bobby Frankel/Edmund Gann for "the high six figures." Peace Rules went on to win the Blue Grass Stakes and finish third in the Kentucky Derby. Now Contessa has Rydilluc for this week's Blue Grass, and he would be his first Derby starter.

After a less than stellar debut on dirt, it was the Rydilluc's second start on the Aqueduct turf in November 2012 that Contessa knew he had something: the horse had shown speed and was getting stronger under a mild hand ride late by Edgar Prado at odds of nearly 18-1.

When asked about trying the dirt again, Contessa said "I understand that we are following a dream. If it turns out I am wrong, we may still have the best grass three-year-old out there. I can accept that!" Since shipping to Keeneland a week ago, Rydilluc has flourished and his trainer believes he still has more maturing to do.

The colt had a seven-furlong work over the PolyTrack where he finished in 24.2 for the final quarter and wanted to do more. What's even more impressive than his physical size and presence is his attention span: "He loves to stand on the track and just watch horses train," said Contessa. This is a quality very few horses have and, those that do are some of racing's greats: among them Tiznow and Zenyatta.

We watched Rydilluc for 30 minutes on Wednesday: he doesn't get ruffled, doesn't get hot or antsy. When fellow Blue Grass rival Balance the Books came out of the paddock within feet of Rydilluc, the dark bay just looked over and nodded his head. He didn't flinch. The ability to have an intense nature but not get caught up in what's going around you is the trait of many a great horse, and certainly a horse who can keep focus for a mile and a quarter.

If the big bay colt wins the Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday, he has a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Just as Babe Ruth pointed to the sky before hitting it out of the ballpark, Contessa could be doing the same with Rydilluc: he bought an unproved two-year-old at auction and swung for the fences.

Spiral Balancing act: what if Mac isn't The Man?

A popular tenet of wagering on horses is to "bet with your head, not your heart" (also: "bet with your head, not over it").

I'm trying to keep that in mind (and take it to heart) when it comes to plotting my wagering course  for Spiral Stakes day on Saturday at Turfway Park, but it's hard for me not to get excited about Mac The Man being in the gate for the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes (click for free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs w/ comments for both Kentucky Derby Championship races this weekend).

I've had Mac The Man ranked second on my Kentucky Derby poll since the El Corredor colt won the 96Rocks Stakes on February 2 at Turfway Park. He wasn't there then--and he's not there now--because I think he is the second-most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands. Rather, I just thought he'd be overlooked given his location (Turfway) and connections (trainer Jeff Greenhill).

I.e., 200-to-1 certainly seemed like the right price to take on one of only a few multiple stakes winners among this crop who had run fast enough to date to indicate that a Derby win wouldn't be out of the question with improvement. Admittedly, I'm more concerned with his pedigree than his speed, but if he's in the Derby gate I won't need to worry about it that much with this price locked in.

OK, you get it; I like Mac The Man. So how do you bet the race? I don't think we'll get the 10-to-1 morning line, but betwixt Uncaptured, Balance The Books, and Capo Bastone I can't imagine we'll have to take anything less than 5-to-1 on Mac The Man.

Uncaptured is the morning line favorite, and while I do think he will be the wagering choice, he doesn't seem to be the pick of many handicappers. Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form fame is against him in the top spot as is Joel Cunningham of Triple Crown Insider.

 
 
I wouldn't like Balance The Books at Mac The Man's morning line price let alone as the second choice against this group. I like Uncaptured more, but I'm willing to play against him as the favorite.

All this means that while Mac The Man is "the top pick", I certainly don't want to be ripping up tickets if Jill Byrne's picks--My Name Is Michael (10-to-1) & General Election (12-to-1)--come in because I think they're capable enough at nice prices.



Turfway Park has a great multi-race wagering menu with $.50 minimums on all Pick Ns--rolling Pick 3s, Pick 4s that start in races 1, 5, & 7, and a Pick 5 in races 7-11. The all-graded stakes Pick 3 (races 8-10) anchors the Pick 4 and is the meat in the Pick 5 sandwich. It's conceivable that not a single favorite wins, though Pure Fun in the Fathead Bourbonette Stakes looks to be the most likely winner on the back half of the card.

I won't be able to resist keying Mac The Man in Pick Ns and playing him across the board at a nice price, but I'm willing to give up some value on him to bet against the favorites as well.

Here's a look at my ABC selections for the whole card:

 

Pletcher and the Derby: Better than most think

The only thing more fashionable than Todd Pletcher's charcoal gray suits on race day is bashing the five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer's Kentucky Derby record.

Admittedly, 1-for-31 isn't the most impressive stat, but it's also an unfair way to couch the opportunities he's had to win America's most famous race because he's only tried 12 times (but with 31 horses).

Ignoring the improbable chance of a dead heat, the best Pletcher's record could be is 12-for-31 (38.7%), and the chances of that based on off odds of his horses is 8,659,613,123,123-to-1.

But of course that's ridiculous. No one expects Pletcher to win the race every year, but even multiple wins is a tall order when you consider that no trainer in that period has won the Derby more than once, so in a stat for most Derby wins in the 21st century (whether you count 2000 or not), Pletcher is tied with 11 (or 12) others with one win each.

And when talking about Pletcher's Derby record the binary nature of what he can accomplish each year is often overlooked in stats such as "He's a 25% trainer overall but has only won the Derby with one starter from 30." He can either win or lose. 

Pletcher is 1-for-31 (3.2%) in an era when all starters are 13-for-246 (5.3%). That makes all starters not trained by Todd Pletcher 12-for-215 (5.6%). Sure, a trainer of his stature could be expected to perform a little better than all starters, but even winning the race a second time gets him to just 6.45%, and we're about to see winning it twice is no easy task let alone the charming third time that would make him a nearly 10% trainer in one of the most difficult races in the world to win.

Pletcher saddled his first Kentucky Derby starter (actually first four Derby starters) in 2000. They had coupled entries for common ownership back then, so Impeachment and Trippi were half of a four-horse entry that also included High Yield and Commendable at 6.2-to-1. With High Yield unquestionably the strongest part of the entry, I estimated that Pletcher's half of the entry had about a 29-to-2 chance of winning. More Than Ready was 11.3-to-1 and Graeme Hall was 46.3-to-1. So the total chance that Pletcher would win in 2000 was 14.6 or about 5.85-to-1.

I conducted this same exercise for the other 12 Derbys since Pletcher began participating. He did not saddle a horse in 2003, so the probability of a win there is 0. His "best chance" came in 2007 when his five entrants (Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat, Sam P., and Scat Daddy) were given a 5-to-2 chance in the win pool by the wagering public. He didn't get it done that year but did three years later when Super Saver scored at 8-to-1 on the tote but was part of a quartet the wagering public made 6-to-1 to get Todd his first Derby.

Given the chances Pletcher had of winning each Kentucky Derby, the most likely outcome is that he would have won the race...

Once.

That's right. For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about how one of our best trainers "can't win the big one", the most likely result (37.4%) from running these 13 Kentucky Derbys is that he would have won the race one time , and it's only slightly more likely that he would have won it twice (25.7%) versus not at all (23.7%), and things get really difficult when you talk about 3 (8-to-1), 4 (38-to-1), or five or more wins (202-to-1).

Which is not to say such incredible runs can't happen. In the past 25 years streaks include Baffert's three wins in six years, Lukas's four wins in 12 years, and Zito's two wins in four years, and each of those runs dwarf what Pletcher has accomplished.

But no one is arguing for Pletcher being among the Derby greats. He's often painted as a goat, and while I'm sure many of his owners would prefer he had a little more success in the race, he's winning at about the rate you would expect.