Derek Simon's Free Weekend Win Factor Plays
THOROUGHBRED SELECTIONS
Aqueduct (race 3)
Maiden special weight races are often tricky because they feature horses with good recent form vs. those with great potential. GUYANA STAR DWEEJ is one of the former. However, his recent form is so good it simply cannot be overlooked — especially since the colt is 5-1 on the morning line.
In his most recent outing, Guyana Star Dweej recorded a last race-best -5 late speed ration (LSR) and matched today’s race par with a 91 Brisnet speed figure (BSF); the one to beat.
Those looking for a price might want to consider keying MR. BEER GOGGLES in the exotics, as his race on March 23 was very good (83 BSF, -7 LSR). True, it came against $45K claimers, but at this level that is a relatively minor consideration.
I’m also intrigued by CREPUSCOLO if the price is right.
BET(S): WIN on 4 at odds of 5-2 or greater. WIN/PLACE on 1 at odds of 8-1 or greater.
Aqueduct (race 6)
I think STEEL BRIDGE could get overlooked in this spot and he shouldn’t be. Last time he was bumped at the start, yet still ran deceptively well given the slow splits (-7 LSR). Prior to that he was favored against similar (and finished a close fourth) on Nov. 24 and was third with a 94 BSF (equaling today’s par) and -4 LSR before that.
Toss DAN AND SHEILA’s race in the Wood, which wasn’t as bad as it looked, and you have a horse to be reckoned with.
LA BERNARDIN is a Darley entrant that earned a 99 BSF and 0 LSR last time, but he did it by setting a slug-slow pace. At 3-1 on the morning line, I need to be sure that he can run equally well facing tougher early competition.
COSMIC KING is no win machine, but fits very well against the likes of these.
BET(S): WIN on 2 at odds of 4-1 or greater.
Aqueduct (race 9)
See my latest column for comments on this race.
BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 3-1 or greater.
Hawthorne (race 1)
Although his connections give me pause, VAN DEMON’s last race towers above the recent efforts of those that have started. Not only did he compete against straight maidens in that March 23 affair, but he also recorded a -16 early speed ration (ESR) while pressing the pace five-wide that day. With a decent break (he’s had problems in that area in the past), the son of Shore Breeze should be able to dictate the fractions, which makes him the one to beat. VERMAJO RIVER closed well down the lane last time and looks like the main threat. FALCON POINT is consistent… but that’s not saying much in a $15K maiden claimer.
BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 3-1 or greater.
STANDARDBRED SELECTIONS
Balmoral Park (race 8)
NATIVE HOTSPUR and ODDS ON MOINET rank 1-2 on my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line and the former is 5-1 on the morning line.
BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 3 at odds of 2-1 or greater.
Cal-Expo (race 2)
ALBION is a Win Factor Report (WFR) “Key Selection.”
BET(S): WIN on 5 at even (1-1) odds or greater.
Freehold Raceway (race 9)
BOLERO TOPGUN has a huge class advantage against these.
BET(S): WIN on 2 at even (1-1) odds or greater.
Northfield Park (race 10)
Based on their morning line odds, CROWN HEIGHTS (8/1), SJ'S PATRIOT (20/1) and NORMIE N (15/1) could offer value in this spot.
BET(S): WIN on 8 at odds of 9-2 or greater and/or WIN on 4 at odds of 5-1 or greater and/or WIN on 5 at odds of 6-1 or greater.
Rosecroft Raceway (race 1)
ROCKET ROSY is a WFR “Speed Racer.”
BET(S): WIN on 4 at even (1-1) odds or greater.
Derek Simon’s 2012 Free Selection Stats
Races (Selections): 23 (23)
Wins: 7
Rate: 30.4%
Return: $26.80
ROI: -41.74%
(This year's published selections through 4/6/2012)
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