TwinSpires.com Blog

As September enters its first weekend, we stay in Canada for a number of Grand Circuit (GC) stakes at Mohawk. There are numerous co-stars this weekend; all in the U.S., with sires stakes championships from Indiana and Pennsylvania (there are others, such as Ohio, but selections for those are included in the horses-to-watch—H2W—list below).

Champlain and Simcoe GC events for Sept. 6 at Mohawk will be covered on our exclusive blog, this year’s Breeders Crown Countdown, now on line. We link to it from this main blog for coverage of races through the rest of the season leading to the championship events in November, in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society and TwinSpires.

Check out TwinSpires-Hoosier Park’s 10-percent bonus for hitting Pick 4s every night there is racing at the Indiana track. And, of course, our horses-to-watch list (H2W) offers live contenders for win, place, show and exotics from tracks across the continent.

Of course, the H2W list rolls on through the ninth month with suggested contenders that may complement your win, place, show and exotic combos at many harness tracks across North America.

The ‘Wellwood’ Gang

Last week’s Metro Pace highlighted the frosh-colt pacers with their biggest purse and strongest challenge to date. This week, on Sept. 5 at Mohawk, frosh-trotting colts go in a pair of $30,000 elims to meet their greatest challenge yet, the William Wellwood Memorial (WWM) Final, next week.

There are only six colts in the first elim but none in the sextet can be easily dismissed. They are green and relatively unpredictable but not without their strengths already displayed through the first half of the season.

Jimmy Takter’s Uncle Lasse is bound to get a lot of win coverage and not just for the trainer’s reputation. In the Donato Hanover product’s recent race he won smoothly at Pocono after strong battles (finishing second) with Centurion Atm in the “Haughton” elim and final at the Meadowlands.

Ron Burke’s Habitat has won three of five on a road tour, including a Champlain at Mohawk, a Tompkins at Tioga and a Kindergarten at the Meadowlands. There will be pennies between the odds of these two, leaving some breathing room for an improving member of the division, who we liked last week in a Champlain, Wheels Ah Smokin.

He may share third-public choice status with Don’t Rush from the rail but “Wheels” won’t get the obvious interest of the two aforementioned colts. Still, Wheels has won a Kindergarten as the drop-dead favorite (two back) and he was a second choice to Habitat at the Meadowlands in another Kindergarten. Trainer Chuck Sylvester is priming this guy, hoping to mature him for his wealthy owners who can eye the 2015 Hambletonian. Wheels is a son of Muscles Yankee, the sire of Hambletonian champ Muscle Hill. Sylvester trained Muscles Yankee (his third Hambo winner) and two seasons back was close to a fourth win with Lucky Chucky. It is best to go with the sleeper here because the odds should be good and you want to be there if this is the wake-up race (his morning line is 8-1).

Three of the seven in the second WWM elim are maidens and the best number of wins in the field is two, from the morning-line choice Cruzado Dela Noche. This is the colt that followed Uncle Lasse (elim one) while he was chasing Centurian Atm. The second morning-line choice could be the public’s—Gifted Way.

We are interested in the rail horse, Jetpedia. He is a son of the productive frosh sire Muscle Hill and he really has done no wrong in five starts. He broke here at 3-1 in a stakes final two back, after being the choice in the elim that got him there. He came back in a Champlain last week and started slowly, spotting the field almost 11 lengths. He was fourth by only 5 ¾ lengths, to Habitat (elim one), who rested a few lengths to win by 2 ½ lengths. He is a horse to watch and in this field a horse to bet, since he has every right to improve and the public will not offer him the kinds of odds he may rightly deserve.

Pennsylvania Polkas

The Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) will dance from the mountains of Pocono to the populated perimeter of Philadelphia over two tracks in as many days to crown their state-bred champs in the two-and three-year-old categories. On Sept. 6 the four frosh groups meet at Pocono Downs and on Sept. 7 the sophomore crews battle at Harrah’s at Philadelphia.

We start on Saturday, Sept. 6 at Pocono Downs with four mega-purse PASS finals for freshmen. The first is a $260,000 championship for filly pacers. Bound to dominate the win pool is one of three Ron Burke gals, Southwind Roulette. The public will be impressed by her earnings, sire and speed badge but  these strong factors do not give her an automatic victory. Indeed, we call your attention to Special Package from the rail. Tom Fanning’s daughter of Western Terror (an increasingly productive sire) has made it to the final round only winning one for six this season but her two seconds are commendable and impressive. She will offer a good win price as this field will be imbalanced in the betting due to Burke.

Next for the same purse, filly trotters face their largest pot. Three from Takter’s team will draw wagering attention; too much, in fact. Wewould rather look for a decent price from the Burke gal, Gatka Hanover. With post 8 she may detract more bettors than the post should provoke. The Muscle Massive gal takes after her dam, Girlie Tough, in name and metaphor.

Colt trotters bring the 2015 Hambletonian to mind as we all look for a contender able to keep up with Centurion Atm. That one’s trainer, Ake Svanstedt, is in competition with himself as he sends Lima Pride to post here. Stefan Lind’s Billy Flynn has yet to taste defeat and Shoot The Thrill has been productive. Perhaps the 8 hole again holds the overlay card with Piercewave Hanover. He could surprise the public but would be no surprise to us; he is sound, well bred and has good credentials at two.

Lastly we have the colt pacers. Burke’s barn has the money here with Yankee Bounty, yet to lose in six tries. Our bargaining sense tells us Mcardles Lightning may be overlooked. The Steve Elliot-trained colt is fast, a good earner and the only son of Mcardle in the room. Tomy Terror and Dragon Eddy should compromise by Burke’s biggie, as well as his price.

Sunday In Philly

The PASS sophomore finals are the highlight on Sunday, Sept. 6 at Harrah’s Philadelphia. They begin late in the program with the $260,000 filly trot. Lifetime Pursuit is the hot horse and Designed To Be shows up to test her. All this means is a big price on Take The Money for the upset.

The colt pace offers star material as Mcwicked tries another wire job in a prep for the Little Brown Jug. However, also prepping is the winless Limelight Beach, zero for 11 but now in the Burke barn and ready to upset on his way to the “Jug.”

The colt trot  stars Father Patrick again and his recent upset to Datsyuk (in post 1 here) could bring his price up a bit. It may be a bit too much, making Father Patrick a price we have not seen since he began racing at two.

Finally, the filly pace presents eight-for-eight Sandbetweenurtoes and she still looks like the utter best and the lock of the card. 

Hoosier Heroes

Indiana Sires Stakes finals ensue at Hoosier Park on the Sept. 6 program. The $75,000 contests are all for two-and three-year-olds. Frosh colt trotters have 10 in the hunt. Airman Batten will be the choice and rightfully so. In seven tries he has six wins, with five-for-six Steal N Gas the closest in records. But the Big Stick Lindy colt, Stickem Buck, cannot be dismissed and should be the best price of the trio.

On the frosh-filly trotting side there is a contentious affair. The earnings are close and the records are similar. Golden Big Stick has been in every mix thus far and may be the one ready to pop a fourth win for the season.

In the frosh-filly pace we eliminate the four maidens and take a shot with the 10 horse, Blues Queen. The post may give her some price weight and in the mile may not be a detriment at all. As for the frosh colt pacers, Toni’s Affection should simply have this in the bag for a small payoff.

Soph-filly trotters have to contend with the perfect Andi’s Alana, having eight wins in as many starts on the Hoosier scene. The filly pacers, though tightly matched, may offer value with Metro Shopping.

Soph-colt trotters offer a shot for value from Double A Cash Hall, daringly from post 8, while the glamour-boy pacers will continue to be dominated by the all-powerful Always B Miki, who has scourged the Hoosier scene since his rousing second in the Meadowlands Pace.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W

Batavia
9/5/14, Peter Pumpkineater R7; Studio City R9
9/6/14, King William R3

Freehold
9/4/14, Nicetoseeya R2
9/5/14, Bella’s Spunkin R3; Big Sky Angelina R5; Fancy Pants Sandy R9
9/6/14, +Kings Legend R5; Mr Thomson R5; Moosehead Jack R6

Hoosier
9/5/14, Red Scooter R1; Light Up The Sky R3; Battle Gun R7; Matt The Bruiser R7; Rocket Fuel R9; Allthatgltrsisgold R11; Star City Hero R14

Maywood
9/4/14, Jetting Around R2; Buttered Noodles ae R4
9/5/14, +Impersonal R2; Delightful Dot R3; R Dunshine R4; Rip N Rock R8; Donald Himself R12

Meadows
9/5/14, Incredible Dragon R10

Northfield—Ohio Sires Stakes
9/5/14, Student Of Life R1; Dellou R2; Lofty Chip R5; Crown Time Keeper R6; Honey B R8; Friskie Til Dawn R9; Emilene’s Future R11; Suite Feelin R12

Ocean
9/6/14, +Money Paige R6
9/7/14, +Winmando R1

Plainridge
9/6/14, Painting The Town R2; +Somerset Minibob R4

Philadelphia
9/7/14, Gallie Bythe Beach R7

Scioto
9/4/14, +Whowhohoosier R2
9/6/14, Pro Deuce R4; +Tempster Hanover R6; Can’tcutthatchip R12

Tioga
9/6/14, Flashbacks R6
9/7/14, Goose Creek R1; Ten Yard Penalty R11

Vernon
9/4/14, +Canbec Jewell Sun R4
9/5/14, Fleetwood Hall R1

Yonkers
9/6/14, Lawgiver Hanover R5; Big Jer R7
9/8/14, Caviart Key R6; Montana Pablo A R6
 
Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.      

In the News & Notes segment, host Derek Simon discusses a recent study on track surfaces that has since spawned a piece in the New York Times.

In the U. of Bet segment, David Schwartz drops by to discuss a great way of using speed figures to identify Kentucky Derby contenders.

After every Kentucky Derby, the question is inevitably asked: “Is this the year that another Triple Crown champion is crowned?” And every year — for 32 years — the answer has been the same: no.

Will this year be any different?

Veteran turf writer Steve Haskin seems to think so.

“What can prevent [I’ll Have Another] from finally ending the Triple Crown drought?” Haskin asks in the May 10 installation of “Hangin’ With Haskin” at Bloodhorse.com. “This is going to sound sacrilegious and presumptuous, but the answer is nothing. At least nothing that he can control. Frankly, this colt has the sharp tactical speed to shorten up in the Preakness and the pedigree to relish the mile and a half of the Belmont. His fate could very well be out of his hands and that the only thing that can stop him is one of the Derby starters who were prevented from running their best race jumping up and running the race of their life at Pimlico or Belmont. And if I’ll Have Another should get by the Preakness, there will be a fresh Union Rags waiting for him at Belmont.

“But all of that just may be moot. I’ll Have Another could simply be the best 3-year-old in the country at any distance, and as of now there doesn’t appear to be any reason why he isn’t.”

Not surprisingly, I’ll Have Another’s trainer Doug O’Neill agrees with Haskin’s assessment.

“He’s three for three this year and he’s shown an amazing amount of will to win as we keep stretching him,” O’Neill said. “He travels beautifully, I know he’s got the stamina, and I know he’s got the heart. We just need some luck maintaining what we’ve got now. There will be Derby horses coming back who will be tough and others who are fresh and talented who passed the Derby. But I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat his current form. He knows how to conserve his energy. Paul (owner Reddam) is a hockey fan, and he always says, ‘It’s only the first period; we still have two more periods to go.’”  

So, are Haskin and O’Neill right? Will I’ll Have Another become just the 12^th thoroughbred — the first since Affirmed in 1978 — to capture the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes?

Well, if history is any guide… no way, no how.

Look, we learned in Louisville that I’ll Have Another can rate off of fast fractions and still finish (previously, I’d had my doubts), but what we didn’t learn was whether or not the Derby champ can run well on just two weeks rest. True, that’s an open question for nearly all the horses gathered at Old Hilltop — only longshot Guyana Star Dweej has ever wheeled back that quickly — but the question is especially pertinent in regard to I’ll Have Another, who raced exactly twice in the 243 days prior to the Run for the Roses.

What’s more, I’ll Have Another had shockwave therapy in late April. And while the colt’s connections have treated this with the same degree of seriousness that one might approach a bar fight with Shia LaBeouf (“It's just a pulse that brings blood to an area,” explained owner Paul Reddam), the fact is shockwave therapy is a medical procedure — one designed, at least in part, to reduce pain.

Now if a horse that raced only a couple of times in eight months prior to the Derby needed medical attention to stay fit and loose in Louisville, how confident can one be that he will be able to stay on the muscle in Maryland?

The fact is every Triple Crown winner won at least one race other than the Preakness on 14 days rest or less during their sophomore season and only War Admiral failed to attempt a similar quick turnaround as a juvenile. I understand that training techniques are different now — starting more than once a month is thought to be highly ambitious — but, just like anything else, experience matters and I’ll Have Another simply doesn’t have any when it comes to racing on limited rest.

It gets worse.

Although Derby winners have proven to be very potent at Pimlico, having captured the second jewel of the Triple Crown 29 times in 71 tries since the order of the Triple Crown sequence was finally set in 1932, only one of the past six Derby champs with fewer than four previous starts as a three-year-old managed to win in Baltimore.

The one was Big Brown... and he paid a whopping $2.40.

It also doesn’t help that trainer Doug O’Neill is zero-for-the-last-five-years (or more) when attempting to win a graded route race on two weeks rest or less, whereas his main rival, Bob Baffert, trainer of Bodemeister (the Kentucky Derby runner-up), is two-for-five during the same time period.

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It gets even worse.

Though I’ve written extensively about the controversy regarding how fast last weekend’s Kentucky Derby actually was (see “What’s Speed Got to Do with It”), even if one accepts Beyer’s low 101 speed figure for the race, that number is still quite a bit higher than what I’ll Have Another recorded in his final pre-Derby prep (95 in the Santa Anita Derby).

Since 1992, when Beyer figures were first featured in the Daily Racing Form, Derby winners that improved their final-prep Beyer by more than five points in the Run for the Roses are 0-for-8 in the Preakness. Using the same criteria, but substituting the Brisnet speed figures for the Beyer numbers, results in an equally abysmal 0-4 record.

(Click on image to enlarge)

On the plus side, I’ll Have Another should get a great, stalking trip behind the likely pacesetter, Bodemeister. And if the “bounce” advocates are right and “Bode” bounces to the moon, I’ll Have Another should be in an ideal position to pick up the pieces late.

But I’m not betting on it.

‘New Shooters’ Often Misfire

Going hand and hand with the notion that returning to the races too quickly — within three weeks by today’s standards — causes horses unimaginable grief and stress, is the idea that rest and relaxation produces peak performances.

Well, apparently the “new shooters” in the Preakness Stakes have yet to receive the memo.

Since 1991, just three (of 123) horses that did not start in the Kentucky Derby won the Preakness Stakes — not exactly a resounding endorsement for “freshness.”

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Weekend Win Factor Reports

05/18/12 Pimlico Race Course
05/19/12 Pimlico Race Course
05/19/12 Simulcast Report (top plays from various tracks)