Autumn Almanac
This week the Grand Circuit arrives as the leaves turn orange and the grass stays blue, so to speak, in Lexington, Kentucky. The other color involved is red—The Red Mile. Thanks to Nick Salvi, who is representing the two-week GC stint, we have a lot of the important facts concerning the first big weekend of harness racing. And thanks to veteran equine photographer Tom Tanner, we have the photo accompanying this blog:
Freshmen Follies
Frosh colt trotters and filly pacers take the stage as the main
attraction of a 12- race program on Friday evening, Sept. 28.
The trotting colts
go in four nine-horse divisions, each worth $101,000.
The first highlights
Kentucky-bred star Mystical Dew, recently the American
National winner in Illinois. Also getting high marks in the field are Longwell, Major Athens and Pine Credit. Bound to be
overlooked is one of two maidens, Here’s Johnny. The Ross Croghan-trained son
of Deweycheatumnhowe has been racing well enough to cash two big checks in only
three starts and may awaken at a price.
The second colt
split brings Fashion Blizzard from a big win at Yonkers to take on eight
others, including My Man Can and recent winner Jacks To Open. We suggest the 9
horse, Arctic Tale, who won’t get the action he deserves due to the trio just
mentioned.
Caveat Emptor leads
split three for Ray Schnittker but this is a tough group. No doubt Spider Blue
Chip will haunt Ray’s charge and Possessed Fashion is bred for speed. Give your
support to whichever is least wagered upon; it doesn’t look like a major upset
here.
The colt-trot
nightcap is a tight fit, with three maidens and six that have only won a single
race. We’ll go with the Chocolatier maiden from the rail, Deadliest Catch. John
Duer’s lightly raced fella has one second to his resume but here, on good
behavior, he could win his first. Certainly Duer in the bike will help bring
the price up.
Pacing fillies race
in a trio of nines, each for $108,700. The first division features the recent
world-record setting I Luv The Nitelife, once again
taking on Parlee Beach. We suspect the price play is
Miss Madi M from the wood.
The second division
pits Authorize and Carol’s Desire in an evenly matched field, though the former
is bound to go off the public choice. Want Answers from the rail should be in
the mix as the best candidate for an upset.
In the final filly
race, Nikki Beach comes in off a win and now she faces three-time winner South
Pacific. For a price, consider Real Mozartist from the rail, with Yannick
Gingras probably wanting to be the engineer on the engine all the way.
Saturday’s frosh
presentations on the 12-race card are Bluegrass colt pacers in five divisions
for purses over $425,000.
Trainer Tony Alagna has brought Captaintreacherous
to Kentucky where the headliner continues his campaign. The Somebeachsomewhere colt has three sub-1:50 wins
to his credit and comes into his Bluegrass division from a brief freshening.
For us, this is the point where there is no competition worth supporting. Let’s
watch and see how fast he goes this time.
Earlier on the
program, Bob McIntosh has Dress The Part primed for this Bluegrass division but
once again we go with Dedi’s Dragon, a colt
on the improve from the Ron Burke stable.
In the third
division Fool Me Once makes his stateside debut for trainer Mark Austin but we
will be all over Sir Richard Z Tam for the Lachance boys.
Next, we will take
back Rockin Amadeus, who was second for us up north at 14-1. He might not be
near that this week but he could make a cool exacta with Teresa’s Beach sitting
behind him.
The fifth freshman
split could also belong to an Alagna property—Wake Up Peter. Red-hot Scott
Zeron is up and this colt will be fired up from post 2, for sure, though the
price is negotiable.
Saturday’s Sophomore Sizzlers
The big Saturday
card also hosts three-year-old pacing colts and most of the marquee players
arrived to race for $100,000 in each of the two Bluegrass divisions. This
season, members of this division have been scorching the miles, many managing to
break the three-quarters record but failing to knock that final quarter out of
the park. This has made for some swift opportunists and longshots.
Thinking Out Loud
tries to regain some respect since losing everything after the $1-million North
America Cup. He will again meet the foes that have been beating him, including
A Rocknroll Dance. However, sharp from Ohio
comes Bettor’s Edge and he certainly cannot be ignored as the upset here. As
well, beware of Pet Rock, who devoured horses in Ohio, just not the “Jug”
crowd.
In division two Bolt
The Duer, one of the “swift opportunists
and longshots” (remember this year’s Adios?) meets Sweet Lou again and if that
one can fire too quickly for three-quarters, “Bolt” has another chance at being
super fast. He cannot do it on his own (at least he has not shown he can), so
he will stalk the apparent leader, “Lou.”
We don’t know what
happened to Dapper Dude in the Jug but it did not seem to be a general flaw. He
can bounce from that defeat and be much better here, especially if he takes the
Bolt route, saving ground and doing what he did in Canada with a wide and
stealthy close.
The pacing fillies
split into a pair of $70,000 divisions.
Jugette-winner Darena Hanover takes on first-heat Shelliscape and the top filly, Romantic Moment,
as well as Pennsylvania-heroine Big Mc
Deal. Let’s take Ramalama again, though she bombed in Ohio.
The other split
features the veritable American Jewel, facing off against Economy Terror and
the darling of New Jersey, Sarandon Blue Chip.
There is one way to go against the trio and that is to give Rockaround Sue
another shot at an upset, too. She was all right in Ohio but her trip cost her
dearly. On this oval she may prove much better.
More race analysis’s from The Red Mile will appear at the Breeders Crown Countdown as
soon as Sunday’s races are drawn. Always check the exclusive blog that, along
with the Hambletonian Society and
TwinSpires, covers major activity in that could affect the 2012 series of
champion-making events, again this year on a single card at Woodbine. Keep up
to date on great betting opportunities that don’t appear in the regular
TwinSpires blog.
Ray Cotolo
contributed to this edition.
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