Breeders' Cup FridayThe notion that gambling winnings is ever "easy money" certainly didn't come from a horseplayer. If you make bank on this year's Breeders' Cup card you'll have earned it.
That's not to say it's impossible, of course. It's a competitive card, and while most of the favorites are logical and wouldn't surprise anyone, it would surprise many if mostly favorites won. Striking that balance between using the shorter-priced horses with the possible rainmakers is what makes a successful Breeders' Cup.
Unfortunately, I have no strong TOP PICK thoughts, though I am only two deep in the "A" column in a few races, and the longer prices in those races obviously entice.
In race 2, #4 d'Princess gets weight and could lead these gate to wire again. Yeah, there's other speed in here, but her "E1" pace figures on Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances are the fastest in the race, so if she can control this from the get go.
Nothing too exotic in race 4, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. The two favorites, Merit Man and Super Ninety Nine, certainly are fastest and will probably be closer in price than their morning lines of 8-to-5 and 5-to-2 suggest. Still, taking a stand two deep at this Breeders' Cup is a big help.
Race 5 is the Breeders' Cup Marathon, and #1 Atigun is fastest, but #11 Commander is right there with him, and the scratch of Worth Repeating should help this front runner. Shipping in from Hastings should help his price.
Race 9 is the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, and I think the top two morning line choices--#5 Royal Delta & #6 Awesome Feather--are the top two in the race. Given how deep I am in the previous races, I won't mind being live to either one of these if any big prices had come in earlier.
Here is the ABC grid. "A" column are my top picks, which is a combo of most likely winners and anticipated value. Star Billing in the Filly and Mare Turf, for instance, is an "A" based on the 30-to-1 morning line even though there are several others in here who are more likely winners.
"C" horses are either horses I expect to be overbet but can win (e.g. Fame And Glory in the Marathon) or horses who will be a ridiculous price and wouldn't completely shock me (e.g. Summer of Fun in the Juvenile Fillies Turf).
Good luck to everyone!