• I wish they all could be Keeneland meets

    POSTED Jan 3, 2013
    My quest to finish the year ahead fell short, but a review of my wagering for 2012 indicates plenty of strengths to build on. I encourage all TwinSpires.com players to make use of the detailed account history report that allows you to see your results based on dates, tracks, bet type, and combinations thereof.

    For the year ended December 31, 2012, my return on investment (ROI) was -5.76% on an increase of handle of 20.27%.

    The biggest losses were suffered on Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes weekends with the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic probably my biggest blunder of the year. Even though Little Mike cost me a lot of money that day, I still voted for him as Horse of the Year (actually, it was my poor handicapping that cost me money, but you know what I mean).

    The biggest wins came at both Keeneland meetings in 2012 with my tab of All Squared Away to win the Lexington Stakes providing my single biggest pay day. Overall, my ROI wagering on Keeneland this year was a staggering +51%, and even removing All Squared Away from the equation makes it +36.8%.

    All the tracks with Polytrack (except Turfway) have turf, so I can't credit the synthetic surface only for this stat, but my ROI at the Polytrack tracks was +40%, and even taking Keeneland away completely puts me at +8% for wagering on those facilities (Arlington, Del Mar, Turfway, and Woodbine).

    Still, to be up that much on Keeneland (which was about 20% of my annual handle) means there were some ugly showings elsewhere. The aforementioned Derby and Belmont weekends were deplorable, but marquee meetings outside of Kentucky weren't too kind to me, as I was -18% on Santa Anita (which includes Breeders' Cup), -38% on Gulfstream, and a shameful -93% on Saratoga.

    My proclivity toward multi-race wagers appears warranted, as I posted a positive ROI on double, grand slam, and Pick 3 wagers for the year while breaking even on Pick 5 with a small negative ROI on Pick 4s. 

    Vertical wagers were all big losers, but straight wagering was a surprising hit with a +12% ROI on 8% of my total handle. Doing well in the multis and straight wagering clearly means I should stick to picking winners--especially since my ROI on win bets only was +77% on 2% handle.

    So what did I (hopefully) learn from this exercise? Certainly to pick my spots better, both in terms of the tracks I wager on and the wagers I make. Clearly, playing trifectas at Saratoga is not my cup of tea!

    Here's to a prosperous and positive ROI 2013.

    peterjborrelli said...

    No shame in that Saratoga ROI Ed! Mine was -60% in 2012. I've been documenting every play for 3 years now, and found it's the only way to truly be honest with yourself and improve on weaknesses.

    I know we'll take down the Spa meet in 2013...

    EHammonds said...

    was in the black in '12 with a +0.45 return...

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