Kentucky Derby Futures
I have a standard response to anybody that asks me who I
like for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In a whiny voice I screech, “Derby? Don’t
talk about … Derby? You kidding me? Derby? I just hope I can win a race!”
OK, OK, maybe I don’t go all Jim Mora on folks, but
the question does surprise me in some ways — I mean, the Kentucky Derby is over
16 weeks away, for heaven’ sake.
Still, I realize that a lot of folks start their Derby
lists as early as I hang my Christmas lights, so I thought: Why be so whiny?
Give the people what they want.
Hence, without even a grimace on my face, I present some horses to watch this spring, along with my opinion as to whether or not they are "futures-worthy:"
Hence, without even a grimace on my face, I present some horses to watch this spring, along with my opinion as to whether or not they are "futures-worthy:"
TOP 2013 KENTUCKY
DERBY CONTENDERS
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Shanghai Bobby
(18-1)
His effort in the BC Juvenile was less than inspiring,
although he did record a ridiculously fast -17 early speed ration (ESR) in that
race. Prior to that, the son of Harlan’s Holiday earned an excellent -2 late
speed ration (LSR) in the Champagne Stakes. Mixed signals.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Goldencents (25-1)
Breeding is about as suspect as the Lakers’ defense this
year, but I like the fact that the Doug O’Neil trainee was able to rate
effectively in the Grade III Sham.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Uncaptured (14-1)
After tasting defeat for the first time in the Grade III
Grey Stakes at Woodbine, the son of Lion Heart rebounded with a very impressive
performance in the Grade III Iroquois at Churchill Downs, his first start on
conventional dirt. Better still, his pace figures in that event were very
strong: a -10 ESR and -5 LSR.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Bern Identity
(60-1)
This guy will need to show that he’s a better router than
he is a sprinter, but he’s certainly got talent.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Up With the Birds
(125-1)
If there’s justice in the world, a horse with such an
awful name won’t win the Kentucky Derby. However, this Canadian-bred son of
Stormy Atlantic has recorded some ridiculously good LSRs over Woodbine’s Polytrack surface and might be even better on
dirt.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Vyjack (75-1)
Love his talent… don’t love his breeding for 1 ¼ miles.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Nobe Tune (45-1)
Although he’s only raced on the lawn (he was second in
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf), I really like Noble Tune’s ability to gain
ground on the turn.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Speak Logistics
(125-1)
I’m throwing out the BC Juvenile due to the hot pace;
however, this dude will need to learn how to rate to stand any shot on the
first Saturday in May.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Get Happy Mister
(125-1)
To the best of my knowledge, Colorado-breds like Get
Happy Mister are undefeated in the Kentucky Derby… I’ll leave it to readers to
figure out why.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Avie’s Quality
(125-1)
Another Woodbine-based runner with solid pace figures.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Bradester (100-1)
Improving sort who has yet to be tested for class.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Balance the Books
(75-1)
He’s only raced over the weeds and, in fact, was a
fast-closing third despite traffic trouble in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf, but
I can’t wait to see this guy try the dirt — or at the very least synthetics.
His turn times make me think he could be the next Animal Kingdom.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Normandy Invasion
(25-1)
Like this fast-improving son of Tapit a lot — but not at
25-1 in January.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Carried Interest
(150-1)
He’s out of a sprint sire and seems unlikely to get the
10 furlongs of the Derby.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Mylute (100-1)
Son of two-time BC Sprint champ Midnight Lute has been
competitive in some lower-level stakes events and seemed to step up to the next
level with resounding 10 ¾-length win against lesser at the Fair Grounds on
Dec. 6.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Delhomme (100-1)
Winstar Farm protégé has good early and late pace figures
and could be a contender if he learns how to rate.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Archwarrior (35-1)
Made his debut this summer at Saratoga with a reputation
bigger than the grandstand and he didn’t disappoint, winning by 3 ¼ lengths at
1-5. The son of Arch was next seen in the Champagne, but looked like he was carrying the grandstand that day,
finishing a dull fourth. Right now, his future odds don’t match his present ability.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Crop Report (85-1)
I suspect the field of maidens he beat at Newmarket wasn’t
the strongest in the world, but anytime a horse can win by daylight on the
green, I give it a second look. That said, 85-1 is way too low on a horse that
may not even make the trip to Kentucky.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Frac Daddy (22-1)
His maiden win was spectacular and he followed that up
with a game second in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Amerigo Vespucci
(225-1)
In what’s becoming a theme, this son of Henrythenavigator
will have to prove that he can outrun his sprint-oriented pedigree. His effort
in the Jerome was encouraging.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
War Academy (40-1)
Solid -4 LSR in his debut, a 6 ½-furlong maiden affair at
Hollywood Park.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Power Broker
(35-1)
Seems sure to be pointed toward the Derby, which is
hurdle #1. I also like his ability to be in the mix early. The price is a
little on the low side, but it’s in the ballpark for a colt that figures to
dance the dances.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Ali's Birthday
(250-1)
Very good debut (93 Brisnet speed figure, -4 ESR, -4 LSR)
against lesser at Ellis Park going 5 ½ panels.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Little Distorted
(45-1)
First race was great; second race, not so much.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Golden Soul
(225-1)
He looks a little slow at the moment, but his pace
figures stamp him as one to keep an eye on.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Belvin (85-1)
Well-bred son of Empire Maker is in great hands and
showed a fair amount of ability in his first two starts.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Mountain Eagle
(125-1)
Whitney Stables, Birdstone, Nick Zito… all familiar names,
all associated with this colt. If he doesn’t make the Derby, maybe he can make
the Test of Champions.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Revolutionary
(45-1)
Love his last race (103 BSF, -3 LSR) and the connections
are solid (Winstar Farm owns, Todd Pletcher trains).
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Uptown Boy (500-1)
This guy looks more like a mid-level sprint champion than
a Kentucky Derby champ, but stranger things have happened, I guess.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Appealing Tale
(150-1)
Went ridiculously fast early (-17 ESR) in his
maiden-breaker on Dec. 29, yet still drew away to an impressive score that day.
Definitely one to keep an eye on.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Rienzi (275-1)
His race at Parx on Nov. 2 was OK, but it wasn’t near good
enough for Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May… unless he’s running on
the undercard.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Track Rocker
(200-1)
Needs to prove he’s got the class to compete at a higher
level; however, his maiden race at Delaware Park was excellent.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
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Derby Day is always a thrilling event! The excitement in the air is palpable, like trying to beat your high score in the Dinosaur Game. Everyone's on the edge of their seat, hoping their chosen horse will surge ahead. It's a day of tradition, style, and maybe a little bit of luck. Just remember to pace yourself and enjoy the race. Good luck to all the participants!
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