Kentucky Derby Futures
I have a standard response to anybody that asks me who I
like for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In a whiny voice I screech, “Derby? Don’t
talk about … Derby? You kidding me? Derby? I just hope I can win a race!”
OK, OK, maybe I don’t go all Jim Mora on folks, but
the question does surprise me in some ways — I mean, the Kentucky Derby is over
16 weeks away, for heaven’ sake.
Still, I realize that a lot of folks start their Derby
lists as early as I hang my Christmas lights, so I thought: Why be so whiny?
Give the people what they want.
Hence, without even a grimace on my face, I present some horses to watch this spring, along with my opinion as to whether or not they are "futures-worthy:"
Hence, without even a grimace on my face, I present some horses to watch this spring, along with my opinion as to whether or not they are "futures-worthy:"
TOP 2013 KENTUCKY
DERBY CONTENDERS
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Shanghai Bobby
(18-1)
His effort in the BC Juvenile was less than inspiring,
although he did record a ridiculously fast -17 early speed ration (ESR) in that
race. Prior to that, the son of Harlan’s Holiday earned an excellent -2 late
speed ration (LSR) in the Champagne Stakes. Mixed signals.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Goldencents (25-1)
Breeding is about as suspect as the Lakers’ defense this
year, but I like the fact that the Doug O’Neil trainee was able to rate
effectively in the Grade III Sham.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Uncaptured (14-1)
After tasting defeat for the first time in the Grade III
Grey Stakes at Woodbine, the son of Lion Heart rebounded with a very impressive
performance in the Grade III Iroquois at Churchill Downs, his first start on
conventional dirt. Better still, his pace figures in that event were very
strong: a -10 ESR and -5 LSR.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Bern Identity
(60-1)
This guy will need to show that he’s a better router than
he is a sprinter, but he’s certainly got talent.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Up With the Birds
(125-1)
If there’s justice in the world, a horse with such an
awful name won’t win the Kentucky Derby. However, this Canadian-bred son of
Stormy Atlantic has recorded some ridiculously good LSRs over Woodbine’s Polytrack surface and might be even better on
dirt.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Vyjack (75-1)
Love his talent… don’t love his breeding for 1 ¼ miles.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Nobe Tune (45-1)
Although he’s only raced on the lawn (he was second in
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf), I really like Noble Tune’s ability to gain
ground on the turn.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Speak Logistics
(125-1)
I’m throwing out the BC Juvenile due to the hot pace;
however, this dude will need to learn how to rate to stand any shot on the
first Saturday in May.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Get Happy Mister
(125-1)
To the best of my knowledge, Colorado-breds like Get
Happy Mister are undefeated in the Kentucky Derby… I’ll leave it to readers to
figure out why.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Avie’s Quality
(125-1)
Another Woodbine-based runner with solid pace figures.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Bradester (100-1)
Improving sort who has yet to be tested for class.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Balance the Books
(75-1)
He’s only raced over the weeds and, in fact, was a
fast-closing third despite traffic trouble in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf, but
I can’t wait to see this guy try the dirt — or at the very least synthetics.
His turn times make me think he could be the next Animal Kingdom.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Normandy Invasion
(25-1)
Like this fast-improving son of Tapit a lot — but not at
25-1 in January.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Carried Interest
(150-1)
He’s out of a sprint sire and seems unlikely to get the
10 furlongs of the Derby.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Mylute (100-1)
Son of two-time BC Sprint champ Midnight Lute has been
competitive in some lower-level stakes events and seemed to step up to the next
level with resounding 10 ¾-length win against lesser at the Fair Grounds on
Dec. 6.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Delhomme (100-1)
Winstar Farm protégé has good early and late pace figures
and could be a contender if he learns how to rate.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Archwarrior (35-1)
Made his debut this summer at Saratoga with a reputation
bigger than the grandstand and he didn’t disappoint, winning by 3 ¼ lengths at
1-5. The son of Arch was next seen in the Champagne, but looked like he was carrying the grandstand that day,
finishing a dull fourth. Right now, his future odds don’t match his present ability.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Crop Report (85-1)
I suspect the field of maidens he beat at Newmarket wasn’t
the strongest in the world, but anytime a horse can win by daylight on the
green, I give it a second look. That said, 85-1 is way too low on a horse that
may not even make the trip to Kentucky.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Frac Daddy (22-1)
His maiden win was spectacular and he followed that up
with a game second in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Amerigo Vespucci
(225-1)
In what’s becoming a theme, this son of Henrythenavigator
will have to prove that he can outrun his sprint-oriented pedigree. His effort
in the Jerome was encouraging.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
War Academy (40-1)
Solid -4 LSR in his debut, a 6 ½-furlong maiden affair at
Hollywood Park.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Power Broker
(35-1)
Seems sure to be pointed toward the Derby, which is
hurdle #1. I also like his ability to be in the mix early. The price is a
little on the low side, but it’s in the ballpark for a colt that figures to
dance the dances.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Ali's Birthday
(250-1)
Very good debut (93 Brisnet speed figure, -4 ESR, -4 LSR)
against lesser at Ellis Park going 5 ½ panels.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Little Distorted
(45-1)
First race was great; second race, not so much.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Golden Soul
(225-1)
He looks a little slow at the moment, but his pace
figures stamp him as one to keep an eye on.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Belvin (85-1)
Well-bred son of Empire Maker is in great hands and
showed a fair amount of ability in his first two starts.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Mountain Eagle
(125-1)
Whitney Stables, Birdstone, Nick Zito… all familiar names,
all associated with this colt. If he doesn’t make the Derby, maybe he can make
the Test of Champions.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Revolutionary
(45-1)
Love his last race (103 BSF, -3 LSR) and the connections
are solid (Winstar Farm owns, Todd Pletcher trains).
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Uptown Boy (500-1)
This guy looks more like a mid-level sprint champion than
a Kentucky Derby champ, but stranger things have happened, I guess.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Appealing Tale
(150-1)
Went ridiculously fast early (-17 ESR) in his
maiden-breaker on Dec. 29, yet still drew away to an impressive score that day.
Definitely one to keep an eye on.
Yea or Nay: Yea.
Rienzi (275-1)
His race at Parx on Nov. 2 was OK, but it wasn’t near good
enough for Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May… unless he’s running on
the undercard.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
Track Rocker
(200-1)
Needs to prove he’s got the class to compete at a higher
level; however, his maiden race at Delaware Park was excellent.
Yea or Nay: Nay.
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