• Kentucky Derby Futures

    POSTED Jan 12, 2013
    I have a standard response to anybody that asks me who I like for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In a whiny voice I screech, “Derby? Don’t talk about … Derby? You kidding me? Derby? I just hope I can win a race!”

    OK, OK, maybe I don’t go all Jim Mora on folks, but the question does surprise me in some ways — I mean, the Kentucky Derby is over 16 weeks away, for heaven’ sake.

    Still, I realize that a lot of folks start their Derby lists as early as I hang my Christmas lights, so I thought: Why be so whiny? Give the people what they want.

    Hence, without even a grimace on my face, I present some horses to watch this spring, along with my opinion as to whether or not they are "futures-worthy:"


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Shanghai Bobby (18-1)
    His effort in the BC Juvenile was less than inspiring, although he did record a ridiculously fast -17 early speed ration (ESR) in that race. Prior to that, the son of Harlan’s Holiday earned an excellent -2 late speed ration (LSR) in the Champagne Stakes. Mixed signals.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Goldencents (25-1)
    Breeding is about as suspect as the Lakers’ defense this year, but I like the fact that the Doug O’Neil trainee was able to rate effectively in the Grade III Sham.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Uncaptured (14-1)
    After tasting defeat for the first time in the Grade III Grey Stakes at Woodbine, the son of Lion Heart rebounded with a very impressive performance in the Grade III Iroquois at Churchill Downs, his first start on conventional dirt. Better still, his pace figures in that event were very strong: a -10 ESR and -5 LSR.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Bern Identity (60-1)
    This guy will need to show that he’s a better router than he is a sprinter, but he’s certainly got talent.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Up With the Birds (125-1)
    If there’s justice in the world, a horse with such an awful name won’t win the Kentucky Derby. However, this Canadian-bred son of Stormy Atlantic has recorded some ridiculously good LSRs over Woodbine’s  Polytrack surface and might be even better on dirt.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Vyjack (75-1)
    Love his talent… don’t love his breeding for 1 ¼ miles.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Nobe Tune (45-1)
    Although he’s only raced on the lawn (he was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf), I really like Noble Tune’s ability to gain ground on the turn.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Speak Logistics (125-1)
    I’m throwing out the BC Juvenile due to the hot pace; however, this dude will need to learn how to rate to stand any shot on the first Saturday in May.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Get Happy Mister (125-1)
    To the best of my knowledge, Colorado-breds like Get Happy Mister are undefeated in the Kentucky Derby… I’ll leave it to readers to figure out why.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Avie’s Quality (125-1)
    Another Woodbine-based runner with solid pace figures.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Bradester (100-1)
    Improving sort who has yet to be tested for class.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Balance the Books (75-1)
    He’s only raced over the weeds and, in fact, was a fast-closing third despite traffic trouble in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf, but I can’t wait to see this guy try the dirt — or at the very least synthetics. His turn times make me think he could be the next Animal Kingdom.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Normandy Invasion (25-1)
    Like this fast-improving son of Tapit a lot — but not at 25-1 in January.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Carried Interest (150-1)
    He’s out of a sprint sire and seems unlikely to get the 10 furlongs of the Derby.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Mylute (100-1)
    Son of two-time BC Sprint champ Midnight Lute has been competitive in some lower-level stakes events and seemed to step up to the next level with resounding 10 ¾-length win against lesser at the Fair Grounds on Dec. 6.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Delhomme (100-1)
    Winstar Farm protégé has good early and late pace figures and could be a contender if he learns how to rate.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Archwarrior (35-1)
    Made his debut this summer at Saratoga with a reputation bigger than the grandstand and he didn’t disappoint, winning by 3 ¼ lengths at 1-5. The son of Arch was next seen in the Champagne, but looked like he was carrying the grandstand that day, finishing a dull fourth. Right now, his future odds don’t match his present ability.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Crop Report (85-1)
    I suspect the field of maidens he beat at Newmarket wasn’t the strongest in the world, but anytime a horse can win by daylight on the green, I give it a second look. That said, 85-1 is way too low on a horse that may not even make the trip to Kentucky.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Frac Daddy (22-1)
    His maiden win was spectacular and he followed that up with a game second in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

    Yea or Nay: Nay.
    Amerigo Vespucci (225-1)
    In what’s becoming a theme, this son of Henrythenavigator will have to prove that he can outrun his sprint-oriented pedigree. His effort in the Jerome was encouraging.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    War Academy (40-1)
    Solid -4 LSR in his debut, a 6 ½-furlong maiden affair at Hollywood Park.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Power Broker (35-1)
    Seems sure to be pointed toward the Derby, which is hurdle #1. I also like his ability to be in the mix early. The price is a little on the low side, but it’s in the ballpark for a colt that figures to dance the dances.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Ali's Birthday (250-1)
    Very good debut (93 Brisnet speed figure, -4 ESR, -4 LSR) against lesser at Ellis Park going 5 ½ panels.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Little Distorted (45-1)
    First race was great; second race, not so much.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Golden Soul (225-1)
    He looks a little slow at the moment, but his pace figures stamp him as one to keep an eye on.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Belvin (85-1)
    Well-bred son of Empire Maker is in great hands and showed a fair amount of ability in his first two starts.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Mountain Eagle (125-1)
    Whitney Stables, Birdstone, Nick Zito… all familiar names, all associated with this colt. If he doesn’t make the Derby, maybe he can make the Test of Champions.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Revolutionary (45-1)
    Love his last race (103 BSF, -3 LSR) and the connections are solid (Winstar Farm owns, Todd Pletcher trains).
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Uptown Boy (500-1)
    This guy looks more like a mid-level sprint champion than a Kentucky Derby champ, but stranger things have happened, I guess.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Appealing Tale (150-1)
    Went ridiculously fast early (-17 ESR) in his maiden-breaker on Dec. 29, yet still drew away to an impressive score that day. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
    Yea or Nay: Yea.

    Rienzi (275-1)
    His race at Parx on Nov. 2 was OK, but it wasn’t near good enough for Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May… unless he’s running on the undercard.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    Track Rocker (200-1)
    Needs to prove he’s got the class to compete at a higher level; however, his maiden race at Delaware Park was excellent.
    Yea or Nay: Nay.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    php service company said...

    I love this post very much.please keep sharing of knowledges with us.

    Dim4ksan said...

    Hi everybody. Hi everyone. My critique on this blog I want to publish. There are many dating sites all over the world, some of which I have already registered with! That didn't work as you understand. But how nice my friend tells me about a dating site as italian mail order brides.. I have quickly been written to a number of girls since registering here. I was just wondered, I didn't get anything like that on other dating pages, nobody wrote to me, and here I had a couple. I suggest that! I advise!

    berry456 said...

    Kerala SSLC Blueprint 2024, Kerala Board 10th Blueprint 2024 Download the Kerala Board of Public Examination will declare the Kerala SSLC Blueprint 2024 in the coming days. The applicants who are searching for Kerala 10th Blueprint 2024 the Kerala Board SSLC Latest Blueprint 2024 they should sit tight for additional days. Since the KBPE has not made any declaration when the Kerala Board 10th Blueprint 2024 is delivered on the web.

    Rose said...

    It's amusing to see the early buzz and speculation around Death By AI the Kentucky Derby, reminding me how the excitement builds long before the actual event, akin to holiday preparations starting well in advance.

    Post a Comment