• Wiseguys Holy Bearish on Shanghai Bobby

    POSTED Jan 26, 2013
    Shanghai Bobby will have more money bet on him to win the Holy Bull Stakes (free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) than all other horses combined, yet few are actually picking him to win.

    This is common phenomena among the horse racing cognoscenti. Picking favorites--especially odds on favorites coming off a layoff following a slow race--is taboo and a typical path to the poorhouse. It's not that anyone thinks Shanghai Bobby can't win--he's even the most likely winner--but 4-to-5 on the aforementioned variables does encourage shopping around.

    So what is the best approach to betting a race where the most likely winner is an underlay? On the plus side, underlays create overlays (not always the case because of takeout, but you can't have an overlay without an underlay), but on the negative side, betting against the most likely winner increases variance, so navigating these situations is essential for proper bankroll management.

    Itsmyluckyday is my top pick. I think he can win this race 25% of the time (3-to-1 fair odds), so 6-to-1 (14.3%) makes him a decent win bet, and the field is competitive enough that I'll probably play him across in case Shanghai Bobby runs well ... enough for fourth.

    Still, I do like Shanghai Bobby more than some of the otherwise-fashionable alternatives in the race like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square. If Shanghai Bobby were to win, then I'd like to beat FD & DS underneath. There's still money to be made if Shanghai Bobby wins but Itsmyluckyday and/or Sr. Quisqueyano crash the number as well.

    The one favorite on the card I do love is Kauai Katie in the Forward Gal Stakes (Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs for Kentucky Oaks prep races, including the Santa Ysabel). She'll be 1-to-2 making her tough to bet to win, but I'll probably try to get live to my prices in the Holy Bull by singling her in the multis.

    And perhaps the most exciting news of all as the Kentucky Derby trail winds toward Louisville, is that TCI is back with Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham recapping the major players on the trail so far and previewing the Holy Bull.

  • 4 comments:

    Anonymous said...

    Exactly how I would play the race! Great stuff Ed

    Jakko Bagci said...

    Hiya! How are things? We’ve established a unique order price calculation system so that you don’t get overcharged. Your fees will be determined by the type of task, academic level, length, mla format example essays, among other criteria. Once you’ve paid the initial price, you will incur no additional hidden charges when we write for you.

    Molly Hunt said...

    The police probably should have prosecuted them for breaching or disturbing the peace. Posting "antifa Strosstruppe was there in the first place too, and your whole story is not just b.s #2,500 posted here by one of you keyboard warriors". Cost to get a Wikipedia page

    berry456 said...

    TSBIE will release the Model Paper 2024 of TS Inter 2nd year 2024 in November 2024. The Model Paper 2024 of TS Inter 2nd Year Model Paper 2024 will be available in online mode at 12th Question Paper 2024 Students will be able to check the TS 2nd year inter Model Paper 2024, timings, instruction for students in the TS Inter exam Model Paper 2024. Students can start preparing for the exam according to the TS inter 2nd year exam Model Paper 2024.

    Post a Comment