• Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 3, now or later?

    POSTED Mar 22, 2013
    Identifying potential wagers in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (click for free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) involves the following questions:

    1. What chance do I give this horse (or wagering interest in the case of the field) of winning the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands?

    2. What chance do I give of a horse's chance to win the Derby changing between now and May 4?

    3. Given the answers to questions 1 & 2, is it best to bet on this wagering interest now (in KDFW3), later (Derby day), or never?

    A "now" means I would bet that wagering interest if its odds to win are an overlay versus my fair odds line. A "later" means I'd need an additional premium to bet that horse now. I.e., I have Shanghai Bobby's fair odds to win the Derby at 18-to-1. However, he won't be favored to win the Florida Derby, and a loss there (even a good one) probably doesn't have him any lower than 12-to-1 on Derby day itself. Is it really worth 18-to-1 now? And even if he wins the Florida, I just don't see the hype on him enough to see him going any lower than 8-, and he's still might even be 10-to-1 depending on what others do. So given that, why take 18-to-1 now?

    Itsmyluckyday, on the other hand, will be (rightfully) favored to win the Florida Derby , and I expect a win. His price will depress significantly if (when!) that happens, so now is the time for this price should I get it.

    That's not to say I won't bet a horse now who's in the "later" category. An overlay is an overlay, and if a horse gets ridiculously ignored then there's no point missing out on the value. This was the case last year when I'll Have Another was ~22-to-1 in both pools 2 & 3. As it turns out, a win in the Santa Anita Derby knocked IHA's Derby day price down to 15-to-1. Another lesson from that exercise was not to be too bullish on horses from Pool 2 that won't race before Pool 3. It's a lesson I applied this year, and I'm hoping it pays off with horses like Itsmyluckyday and Orb.


    Anonymous said...

    Depending on what almost blog that you’ve, getting a good idea to advertise your blog utilizing reports about the kentucky derby

    Unknown said...

    wow, awesome article post.Thanks Again. Really Great.
    Sports Betting

    Gclub45 said...

    You are very good at that.
    โปรโมชั่นGclub ของทางทีมงานตอนนี้แจกฟรีโบนัส 50%
    เพียงแค่คุณสมัคร สล็อตออนไลน์ กับทางทีมงานของเราเพียงเท่านั้น
    สมัครสล็อตออนไลน์ >>> Goldenslot
    สนใจร่วมสนุกกับ คาสิโนออนไลน์ คลิ๊กได้เลย
    มีทั้งคาสิโนออนไลน์ หวยออนไลน์ ฟุตบอลออนไลน์ สล็อตออนไลน์ และอื่นๆอีกมากมาย

    ahmed said...

    the strongest pesticide company in Jubail we exterminate any insect with the best equipment and special machinery And strong pesticides with a strong team with the best insect control company in Jubailشركة رش مبيدات بالمزاحمية
    اسماء المبيدات الحشرية المنزلية
    افضل شركة رش مبيدات
    شركة رش مبيدات بالمجمعة

    Post a Comment