• The Ultimate guide to betting entries

    POSTED Sep 27, 2013
    I've lamented before about the horseplayer compulsion to pick THE winner, and nothing upsets that need more than coupled entries.

    When it comes to the pari-mutuel pool, though, you don't get extra credit for saying Real Solution will win the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic rather than "the Ramsey entry." The flipside benefit to that is even if you're wrong then you can still get paid of Big Blue Kitten or Joe's Blazing Aaron win.

    The biggest reason touts don't like coupled entries is because they think it automatically hurts their value. Yes, if you like the less likely winner of a coupled entry, then you will undoubtedly get a lower price, but does that mean you're getting less value?

    In the case of the Flower Bowl where I see Laughing as the most likely winner but Tannery as the best chance for an upset, the answer is NO. In the case of the Hirsch where I see Big Blue Kitten as a far more likely winner than either of his entrymates, the answer is YES.

    Let's look at the Flower Bowl where the aforementioned Alan Goldberg-trained duo of Laughing and Tannery is 8-to-5 on the morning line. Those odds represent a 38.5% chance of either winning. If you see Laughing as a 5-to-2 choice (28.5%) then that leaves a 10% chance for Tannery, or fair odds of 9-to-1.

    Both prices are overlays to me, as I see Laughing winning this race 33% of the time for fair odds of 2-to-1 and Tannery getting the job done 20% of the time for fair odds of 4-to-1. Even if the entry is 3-to-2 then Tannery would have to be 6-to-1 individually to offer better value (Bet 100 races, the entry wins 53 times and pays $5 for $265. Alone, Tannery wins 20 times and pays $14 for $280. If she's 5-to-1 then the return is only $240).

    But I do most of my betting in the pick "N" pools, and in this case the Flower Bowl entry makes things easier on me because I like both horses and can now single. This is the opposite situation as the Hirsch where I think coupling the Ramsey horses lowers my expected value on them while increasing it dramatically on Slumber, who I like second off the year layoff.

    Individually, I could make a case for either Big Blue Kitten or Real Solution at a certain price, but I think their coupling will make them a betting interest that people feel they "have to use" in the multis, and while either winning wouldn't shock me, I just don't think the value is there when I like a horse better, anyway.

    The other race on the stakes portion of the Belmont card with coupled entries is the Kelso Handicap that includes the Lapenta-owned duo of Easter Gift and Jackson Bend. Neither would be favored individually, and getting "two for one" with these appeals to me since I don't fully trust Graydar off the bench giving weight. Souper Speedy will also be on my tickets.

    There are no coupled entries in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is too bad from a wagering standpoint because I think coupling the Mott and Pletcher horses (Flat Out and Ron The Greek for the former and Cross Traffic, Palace Malice, and Vitoria Olimpica for the latter) would inflate the price on others, including my top pick Last Gunfighter.

    Palace Malice has actually run faster than Cross Traffic has early on occasion (e.g. the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby), but based on their last couple races I think it's fair to assume Cross Traffic will have the lead down the backstretch.

    Palace Malice, Orb, and Flat Out will try to get to the leader before Last Gunfighter does, but at 10-to-1 I'm hoping a sort of "pressers duel" develops between those three and that they go too quickly on that expansive far turn. That leaves Ron The Greek and Last Gunfighter to close, and I'll take the latter, though for the Pick 4 I'll use Flat Out as an "A" as well.

    That was a lot to go over, so let me make sure I'm clear about my picks (especially since they're not all listed above!): Royal Delta (Beldame), Souper Speedy (Kelso), Strapping Groom (Vosburgh), Santulli/Goldberg entry (Flower Bowl), Slumber (Hirsch), Last Gunfighter (JCGC), Mucho Macho Man (Awesome Again), Cleveland Indians (American League Wildcard contender).

    Want even more insight? Check out Joel Cunningham in that Breeders' Cup purple!


    indirman said...

    indir gta 5 ücretsiz

    ps3 oyun hileleri gta 5

    gta 6 indir ve oyna 2021

    yadongbiz said...

    I have to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this blog. I am hoping to check out the same high-grade content from you in the future as well 야한동영상

    Also feel free to visit may webpage check this link

    koreayadongcom said...

    Wow-what wonderful information this was. I really liked it a lot. By the way, I was looking online for some writing help when I landed here. 한국야동닷컴

    Also feel free to visit may webpage check this link

    chinayadongnet said...

    Great publish, very informative. Im wondering why the other specialists of this sector don’t realize this. 중국야동넷

    Also feel free to visit may webpage check this link

    Anonymous said...

    that I bookmark your blog and will often come back at some point.
    Also visit my website : 토토사이트

    10th model paper said...

    Board of Intermediate Education Telangana (BIE Telangana) is Going to Conduct the Intermediate 1st Year Examination in the month of March to April 2024 under Board of Education in Telangana, BIE Telangana Eegulates TS Inter 1st Year important Question Paper 2024 and Supervises the System of intermediate Education in Telangana. BIE Telangana Going to Condected Inter 1st Year Anuval Final Exam Start Wednesday, 15 March 2024 to Monday, 3 April 2024, The Practical Exam for both General and Vocational Courses will be Conducted from Wednesday, 15 February 2024 and go on till March 2 2024 Thursday, 2 March 2024, including Sundays in two sessions i.e., morning session from 9 am- 12noon and 2-5 pm. The main exams would be for three hours between 9 am and 12 noon

    Geometry Dash Meltdown said...

    This post has opened my mind to new perspectives and ideas.

    Post a Comment