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  • Profile of a Derby Winner

    POSTED Jan 17, 2014 By Derek Simon


    With the Kentucky Derby just around the corner, now is the perfect time to start thinking about what to look for in a Derby winner. OK, OK, perhaps I exaggerate when I say “just around the corner,” but, hey, I like to be prepared.

    And one of the best ways to prepare for the Kentucky Derby is to look at the traits of former winners of the big race. So I scoured my database of Derby winners since 1992 and here’s what I found:

    1) 20 of 22 Derby winners (91 percent) recorded a Brisnet speed figure of 100 or greater prior to triumphing in the Bluegrass State.

    2) Nearly 2/3 of all Derby winners captured at least one race by three lengths or more as a juvenile. More than half (55 percent) won at least one race by five lengths or more as a two-year-old.

    3) 68 percent of Derby winners won a route (one mile or greater) race as a juvie.

    4) Close to half (45 percent) of all Derby winners were stakes-placed over a route of ground as a two-year-old.

    5) 14 Derby champs (64 percent) were favored in at least one of their first two lifetime races.

    6) Just three of 22 Derby winners trailed by more than five lengths at the first call of their final prep race.

    7) Over 3/4 (77 percent) of all Derby winners earned a negative early speed ration (ESR) in their last race.

    8) Half of all Derby winners won a route race by at least three lengths as a two-year-old.

    9) 91 percent of all Derby winners broke their maidens as two-year-olds.

    10) 17 of 22 (77 percent) of all Derby champions recorded a late speed ration of -10 or greater in their final prep. Only Mine That Bird (2009) earned an LSR of -15 or less in its final prep race.

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.
    • 2014 Kentucky Derby
    • betting
    • Churchill Downs
    • Derby winners
    • Derek Simon
    • ESR
    • handicapping
    • horse race gambling
    • horseracing
    • LSR
    • racing stats
    • Run for the Roses
    • winner profile
  • 46 comments:

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    Derek:

    In this years field, there are no horses with a win at a route of a mile or greater at two who also have a 100 Bris. If you could only use one of those two angles, which would it be?

    April 15, 2014 at 7:13 PM
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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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