TwinSpires.com Blog

  • Kentucky Derby Turnoffs

    POSTED Apr 24, 2014 By Derek Simon
    I have often discussed how important it is that a horse show the ability to gain ground on the turn in Kentucky Derby preps, à la Animal Kingdom in the 2011 Spiral.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    In that Grade III event, the son of Leroidesanimaux passed three horses and gained two lengths en route to a 2 ¾-length score.

    Six weeks later, he was having his picture taken in the Churchill Downs’ winner’s circle.

    Just as important as positive moves, however, are negative ones.

    What’s the difference, you ask? Well, a positive move is any gain of running position and lengths (the latter stipulation helps to ensure that the move was due to the horse accelerating rather than just picking up stragglers) on the far turn, while a negative move is just the opposite — a loss of both position and lengths on the far turn.

    For the sake of simplicity, I consider the far turn to be the span between the first and second call in routes and the span between the second call and the stretch call in sprints. (Obviously, prepping for the Kentucky Derby in a sprint race raises other issues… but it has happened.)

    Take a peek at horses that showed a negative move on the turn in their last race prior to the Derby:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Simply put, these horses just don’t perform in Louisville. Not only are they 0-for-29 since 1992, only two — Menifee (in 1999) and Pioneerof the Nile (2009) — have so much as hit the board.

    So, without further ado, here are the potential “turnoffs” in Kentucky Derby 140:

    Horses that lost position and lengths from the first call to the second call in their final prep

    * Dance with Fate
    * Vinceremos
    * Coastline
    * In Trouble
    * Casiguapo
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    • 2014 Kentucky Derby
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    • Derek Simon
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  • 23 comments:

    Unknown said...

    Hi, thanks for posting this... Although I just read a contradicting article from Equibase about Dance with Fate that in the BlueGrass Dance with Fate was in front at the eight pole and held his own to the wire... I guess maybe he lost lengths... I'll have to watch the race. Here's a link to the article I'm referring to with quote:

    "One of the keys to choosing who may run well in the Derby is to try to determine who might peak on Derby Day, not in their next start or the one previous. Dance With Fate may be that type of horse. He started his 3 year old campaign in January winning a non-stakes race then led late and settled for second in the El Camino Real Derby in Northern California. Coming to Kentucky for the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month, Dance with Fate rallied from 10th of 14 in the early stages and was in front at the eight pole, holding his lead nicely to the wire, that move being significant to a potentially winning effort in the Derby as well"

    http://www.equibase.com/analysis/050314preanalysis.cfm?SAP=ITP

    Thanks!
    Nathan

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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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