Handicapping Fireworks
As I have been writing quite a bit about my database
studies in recent days, I thought it might be a good time to use some of those
studies to analyze a few upcoming races. So, without further ado, let’s look at
some of the great races being run this weekend:
(Click HERE for a sample Pace Profile Report that explains what all the figures mean.)
(Click HERE for a sample Pace Profile Report that explains what all the figures mean.)
JULY 4
Arlington Park (race 3)
(Click on image to enlarge)
COMMENTS:
1-SLEEPY has the best overall speed, early speed rations (ESRs) and late speed
rations (LSRs). Not surprisingly, he’s also the 8-5 morning line favorite. Still,
the top choice appears to have a very slim margin of error and I would not take
odds of less than 6-5 on him. I’m also more than a little intrigued by 4-PRINCE
CHEVAL, who has finished in the money in four of his five trips over the
Arlington Park main.
Arlington Park (race 6)
(Click on image to enlarge)
COMMENTS: 1-FRABSTER
is both versatile and consistent and could be on the engine in what — on paper,
anyway — appears to be a paceless affair (-1 avg. ESR). He’s got a 1.05 Win
Factor Rating (not shown) and looks fair at odds of 6-5 or greater.
Parx Racing (race 6)
(Click on image to enlarge)
COMMENTS: Although
the speed and pace figures favor 3-MATISSE and 4-RAKETE, I like the price on 6-TRUE
AWKENING, who has a 1.09 Win Factor Rating and 7-5 fair odds, yet is 4-1 on the
morning line.
JULY 5
Belterra Park (race 7)
(Click HERE for a sample Win Factor Report that explains what all the figures mean.)
(Click HERE for a sample Win Factor Report that explains what all the figures mean.)
(Click on image to enlarge)
COMMENTS: 2-EYE
LOOK THE PART appears to be the swiftest of the bunch and a great overlay at 9-5
or better.
JULY 6
Woodbine (race 7)
(Click on image to enlarge)
COMMENTS: 6-WE
MISS ARTIE has the best overall speed figures and LSRs — and he also boasts the
top Class Rating — in Sunday’s 155th renewal of the Queen’s Plate for
Canadian-bred three-year-olds. All that said, the son of Artie Schiller has yet
to match the race (speed) par.
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