• Handicapping Fireworks

    POSTED Jul 4, 2014 By Derek Simon
    As I have been writing quite a bit about my database studies in recent days, I thought it might be a good time to use some of those studies to analyze a few upcoming races. So, without further ado, let’s look at some of the great races being run this weekend:

    (Click HERE for a sample Pace Profile Report that explains what all the figures mean.)

    JULY 4

    Arlington Park (race 3)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 1-SLEEPY has the best overall speed, early speed rations (ESRs) and late speed rations (LSRs). Not surprisingly, he’s also the 8-5 morning line favorite. Still, the top choice appears to have a very slim margin of error and I would not take odds of less than 6-5 on him. I’m also more than a little intrigued by 4-PRINCE CHEVAL, who has finished in the money in four of his five trips over the Arlington Park main.

    Arlington Park (race 6)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 1-FRABSTER is both versatile and consistent and could be on the engine in what — on paper, anyway — appears to be a paceless affair (-1 avg. ESR). He’s got a 1.05 Win Factor Rating (not shown) and looks fair at odds of 6-5 or greater.

    Parx Racing (race 6)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: Although the speed and pace figures favor 3-MATISSE and 4-RAKETE, I like the price on 6-TRUE AWKENING, who has a 1.09 Win Factor Rating and 7-5 fair odds, yet is 4-1 on the morning line.

    JULY 5

    Belterra Park (race 7)

    (Click HERE for a sample Win Factor Report that explains what all the figures mean.)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 2-EYE LOOK THE PART appears to be the swiftest of the bunch and a great overlay at 9-5 or better.

    JULY 6

    Woodbine (race 7)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 6-WE MISS ARTIE has the best overall speed figures and LSRs — and he also boasts the top Class Rating — in Sunday’s 155th renewal of the Queen’s Plate for Canadian-bred three-year-olds. All that said, the son of Artie Schiller has yet to match the race (speed) par.

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