TwinSpires.com Blog

  • Handicapping Fireworks

    POSTED Jul 4, 2014 By Derek Simon
    As I have been writing quite a bit about my database studies in recent days, I thought it might be a good time to use some of those studies to analyze a few upcoming races. So, without further ado, let’s look at some of the great races being run this weekend:

    (Click HERE for a sample Pace Profile Report that explains what all the figures mean.)

    JULY 4

    Arlington Park (race 3)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 1-SLEEPY has the best overall speed, early speed rations (ESRs) and late speed rations (LSRs). Not surprisingly, he’s also the 8-5 morning line favorite. Still, the top choice appears to have a very slim margin of error and I would not take odds of less than 6-5 on him. I’m also more than a little intrigued by 4-PRINCE CHEVAL, who has finished in the money in four of his five trips over the Arlington Park main.

    Arlington Park (race 6)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 1-FRABSTER is both versatile and consistent and could be on the engine in what — on paper, anyway — appears to be a paceless affair (-1 avg. ESR). He’s got a 1.05 Win Factor Rating (not shown) and looks fair at odds of 6-5 or greater.

    Parx Racing (race 6)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: Although the speed and pace figures favor 3-MATISSE and 4-RAKETE, I like the price on 6-TRUE AWKENING, who has a 1.09 Win Factor Rating and 7-5 fair odds, yet is 4-1 on the morning line.

    JULY 5

    Belterra Park (race 7)

    (Click HERE for a sample Win Factor Report that explains what all the figures mean.)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 2-EYE LOOK THE PART appears to be the swiftest of the bunch and a great overlay at 9-5 or better.

    JULY 6

    Woodbine (race 7)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 6-WE MISS ARTIE has the best overall speed figures and LSRs — and he also boasts the top Class Rating — in Sunday’s 155th renewal of the Queen’s Plate for Canadian-bred three-year-olds. All that said, the son of Artie Schiller has yet to match the race (speed) par.
    • Arlington Park
    • Belterra Park
    • Derek Simon
    • ESR
    • LSR
    • Parx Racing
    • PPR
    • queen's plate
    • WFR
    • win factor
    • Woodbine
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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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