Showing posts with label Arlington Million. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arlington Million. Show all posts

  • Arlington Million Day Overlays & Underlays

    POSTED Aug 15, 2014 By Derek Simon

    With a great day of racing, including the Arlington Million, on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, I really wanted to dive into the card and handicap some races… that’s what I wanted to do.

    Unfortunately, time and a desire to keep what’s left of my sanity overruled this desire and I decided, instead, to provide some free handicapping reports for the big day (see below), as well as some thoughts on certain horses in selected races.

    In a show of orderliness, I started with the first race:

    Arlington Park
    Race 1
    7 furlongs (main track)
    Avg. ESR: -2 Avg. LSR: -15

    Potential Underlay(s)

    Although he ranks third in overall speed on my Pace Profile Report, 1-MYSTIC has finished in the money (third or better) exactly one time since being claimed by trainer Robert Dobbs on Aug. 15, 2013. Worse, the seven-year-old gelding has visited the winner’s circle just once in eight non-turf tries over the course of his career. At odds anywhere close to his morning line (9/2), he looks like a money-burner.

    Potential Overlay(s)

    2-GHETTO CAT ranks first in overall speed on my Pace Profile Report, makes his third start off of a layoff and has tactical speed in a race with a sluggish average early speed ration (ESR) of -2. I think he’s fairly priced at 7-2, yet he’s 8-1 on the morning line.

    6-DE GREEN LIGHT is 5-1 on my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line. I think that’s too low, but I also think De Green Light’s morning line odds of 20-1 are too high.

    Arlington Park
    Race 3
    About 1 Mile (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +4 Avg. LSR: -3

    Potential Overlay(s)

    1/1A-WHATTHECATDRUGIN & COUGAR RIDGE make an interesting entry. The former is 0-for-5 on the grass, yet has run well in his last two turf tries at a mile or less (3rd in an allowance race at seven furlongs at Mountaineer and 2nd in a starter handicap going a mile at Indiana Downs). The latter comes off a winning effort in a race similar to today’s at Indiana Downs, where he recorded a 95 Brisnet speed figure (BSF) and a 0 late speed ration (LSR).

    6-TAZZ is a veteran (eight years old) campaigner with a favorable front-running style and loads of back class (he won the 2011 Black Tie Affair Handicap and numerous other top-purse events in Illinois).

    Arlington Park
    Race 4
    About 1 Mile (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +5 Avg. LSR: 0

    This race for two-year-old, Illinois-bred maidens features several first-time starters and, coincidentally, I just did a study on horses making their debuts in route races — with some amazing results…

    DEBUT RACES AT ONE MILE OR GREATER

    * Last three workouts < 15 total furlongs

    Number: 400
    Winners: 26
    Win Rate: 6.5%
    IV: 0.60
    OBIV: 0.70

    * Last three workouts ≥ 15 total furlongs

    Number: 143
    Winners: 18
    Win Rate: 12.6%
    IV: 1.15
    OBIV: 1.16





    So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at the “firsters” in this race.

    Last three workouts < 15 total furlongs (possible underlays)

    4-Always a Catch (8/1 morning line odds)
    6-Broken In (8/1)
    8-Tender May (20/1)
    11-Ivanti (4/1)

    Last three workouts ≥ 15 total furlongs (possible overlays)

    3-Kinsmanor (8/1)
    5-Safe at Sea (6/1)
    10-Stand Up Guy (6/1)

    Arlington Park
    Race 7
    About 1 11/16 Miles (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +7 Avg. LSR: +3

    Potential Underlay(s)

    Each of the last two times 2-DANDINO came to the US, he ran great — finishing a close second to Joshua Tree in the Grade I Canadian International at Woodbine in 2012 and winning this very race last year.

    However, as Bob Dylan noted, the times they are a-changin’. Dandino is seven years old now and he’s coming off two of the worst performances of his distinguished career. After finishing up the track at Ascot on June 21, the son of Dansili was beaten 16 lengths in a Group 2 event at Newmarket on July 10.

    Will Dandino’s fortunes change in the Land of Lincoln? Maybe. But, given that he’s likely to be one of the favorites, I’m not betting on it.

    Potential Overlay(s)

    Former claimer 3-BIG KICK gets an advantageous pace scenario (+7 avg. ESR) coming off the biggest win of his career in the Grade II San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita.

    6-HARDEST CORE (also entered in the Arlington Million) is 7-1 on my Win Factor line, 20-1 on the morning line.

    Arlington Park
    Race 10
    About 1 1/4 Miles (turf course)
    Avg. ESR: +6 Avg. LSR: 0

    Potential Overlay(s)

    It’s hard to knock 3-MAGICIAN in this spot, as this year’s Million field is far from stellar. However, given the distinct lack of early zip in the day’s feature, I think both 1-HARDEST CORE (also entered in the 7th race) and 7-SIDE GLANCE have a puncher’s chance of scoring the upset.

    Arlington Park Handicapping Reports

    Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds)
    Pace Profile Report

     Speed Ration Key


  • The Million

    POSTED Aug 17, 2013 By Derek Simon
    When the Arlington Million debuted as the first thoroughbred horse race to offer a $1 million purse, it was hoped that it would become a premier event on the international horse racing calendar.

    Thanks to a six-year-old gelding named John Henry — and an assist by The Bart — it did.

    On Aug. 30, 1981, a field of 14 was assembled for the inaugural Million at Arlington Park. Horses from the United States, England, Ireland and France lined up in the starting gate to do battle over 1 ¼ miles on the turf.

    According to Chicago historian John R. Schmidt, “interest in Europe was so great that NBC added special satellite TV coverage of the race” and “one writer said that the first Million would be ‘the race people may be telling their grandchildren about, fifty years from now.’”
    1981 Budweiser Arlington Million 
     

    After John Henry won by a desperate nose, his jockey, the late, great Willie Shoemaker, said “This might be the greatest race I was ever in.”

    This year’s Million may not draw similar proclamations from the riders involved, but it does look like a great betting race. Below is a peek at each of the 13 entrants:

    1-REAL SOLUTION (10/1 morning line odds)
    Although he ran great in the Manhattan on June 8, the son of Kitten’s Joy has been MIA since. In fact, the Chad Brown trainee has started just three times in the past 462 days and his late speed rations (LSRs) aren’t up to par. I’ll pass.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    2-FINNEGANS WAKE (30/1)
    If you like him, you’ll be amply rewarded, as the son of 2005 Million champ Powerscourt is 30-1 on the morning line. However, I think that price is about right. Finnegans Wake is a deep closer in a race with an average early speed ration (ESR) of +4 and his form is dubious to boot. Not my cup o’ tea, this young Finnegan.
    Fair Odds: 25-1

    3-HUNTER’S LIGHT (8/1)
    If this race was run over Arlington’s main track, this dude would undoubtedly be favored — and he’s no slouch on turf either. I like his tactical speed and he’s faced some mighty tough hombres overseas. On the downside, I’m not sure a race in Germany is the ideal final prep.
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    4-NATES MINESHAFT (30/1)
    Without a doubt, this guy is the most intriguing entrant in the race. To begin with, he’s got early speed and three of the past 10 editions of Arlington’s premier grass race have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Secondly, his last race, although not fast (86 Brisnet speed figure vs. today’s par of 102), was outstanding in terms of pace figures. The son of Mineshaft earned a +4 LSR and a positive Pace Profile (meaning he ran relatively faster late, than he did early) and he’s got some back class to boot. The six-year-old ridgling is hardly the one to beat, but I give him a big shot today.
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    5-TEMERAINE (30/1)
    His best speed figure does not meet today’s par and his come-from-the-clouds running style could be a detriment today. Not hopeless, but not inspiring either.
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    6-SIDE GLANCE (12/1)
    Has the talent to win, but I’m not confident that he hasn’t lost a step — or two — at the age of six. Over the past two years, Side Glance has one just one of 11 starts and that was in a Group 3 at Epsom over a year ago.  
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    7-INDY POINT (9/2)
    His races in Argentina were solid; his debut in the United States at Del Mar on July 24 just so-so. Yeah, he won as the 2-1 favorite that day, but both the Brisnet speed figure (99) and the LSR (0) were below par — and this is obviously a much tougher spot. I’m also concerned about Indy Point’s ability to handle the distance versus this caliber of competition. The Richard Mandella trainee is playable… but not at a short price.
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    8-MULL OF KILLOUGH (12/1)
    Given the listed owner’s name, Invictus, I suppose it would be poetic justice for Mull of Killough win the 2013 Arlington Million. The horse has been in great form of late, but today’s contest promises to be his biggest challenge to date.
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    9-GUEST OF HONOR (15/1)
    Although he was beaten by fellow entrant Mull of Killough last time, I think this guy has far more upside. Not only is he younger (four years old), but he appears better suited to today’s distance and seems to be getting better in every start… big shot at a big price today.
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    10-THE APACHE (6/1)
    He’s run against — and beaten — some tough ones in the not-too-distant past, but that last race gives me pause. In big events like the Kentucky Derby, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Arlington Million, razor-sharp form is practically a prerequisite to win and, based on his effort in the Sky Bet York Stakes, The Apache can hardly be considered “razor sharp.”
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    11-LITTLE MIKE (5/1)
    Like Robert Plant, I’m dazed and confused by last year’s Million and Breeders’ Cup Turf champion. On the one hand, he’s fast enough and classy enough to win today’s race — plus, he’s got an advantageous running style to boot (and, doggone it, people like him). On the other hand, his last three races make me to wonder: Is this the same Little Mike we saw in 2012? I don’t have the answer; hence, I’ll let the odds have the final say as to whether I use him or not.
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    12-RAHYSTRADA (20/1)
    Love the fact that this guy ran without front leg wraps last time… don’t love the fact that he drifted out. If he can keep a straight path today, I think the son of Rahy has a great chance of winning. He should be able to stay in touch early and his overall LSRs rank second in the field.
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    13-GRANDEUR (7/2)
    His US speed and pace figures (earned at Hollywood Park last fall) are tops in the field and his trainer, Jeremy Nosada, is great with UK shippers. Definitely the one to beat, but I’d still want a price given his late-running style and the big field.
    Fair Odds: 9-2
    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • A-B-C-Deep on the Arlington Million day card at Arlington International Racecourse

    POSTED By Unknown
    You don't need a Ph.D. in Cristometrics to take a look at my ABC grid and figure out that I'll be leaning on the "A" column a lot.

     The internal conversation goes something like this, "If I'm using this horse then I have to use this horse." That's why Indy Point is a lone "A". I'm willing to bet that he's the horse many thinks he is, and 3-to-1 isn't a bar price for that opinion. But after him can I really use a horse like Finnegan's Wake (yes) but split hairs on Mull of Kilough and The Apache? No.

     So the hope is that I get at least two "A" horses home in the all-stakes $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4, and I'll probably need at least three such horses in the $100,000 guaranteed Pick 5. My selections for races 8, 9, and 10 are also good for TwinSpires.com Jackpot 5 purposes. The bet kicks off today with a $25,000 carryover and includes the Grade 1s from Arlington as well as races from Indiana & Louisiana Downs.

     Good luck to all those playing today, including Summer Showdown, Jackpot 5, and the great wagering menu on Arlington Million day at Arlington International Racecourse--a Pick 6, a Pick 5, three Pick 4s, and rolling doubles and Pick 3s.

  • Million eve ABCs

    POSTED Aug 16, 2013 By Unknown
    Here is the ABC grid for Friday, August 16, at Arlington Park, which John G. Dooley just called one of his favorite days of the year. I can't imagine how excited he is for Million day itself, then!

    In addition to the great wagering menu Arlington offers, TwinSpires.com adds to the excitement with day two of Summer Showdown with a $3,000 carryover and Let 8 Ride requiring a $91 win wager on today's eighth race, which as you can probably surmise from the grid below I'd put on #3, Gostosa, who looks to be lone speed in that affair.

    Back to Summer Showdown, obviously the lone "A" picks are the tabs in those particular races. In the 2yo races (races 2 & 7) I'd be inclined to follow the money and bet the shortest price of my "A" picks.

    Good luck to all those playing, and save some bankroll for the first-ever Jackpot 5 wager that launches Saturday only on TwinSpires with a $25,000 "carryover" for a unique winner.

  • Big races, big money, big fun Arlington Million week

    POSTED Aug 14, 2013 By Unknown
    Whether it's carryovers, guaranteed pools, or contests you like (and especially if it's all of the above), Arlington Million week on TwinSpires.com offers great wagering opportunities to go along with the great racing at Arlington International Racecourse.

     Thursday features a $14,270 Pick 5 carryover and the start of both Summer Showdown and Let 8 Ride contests on TwinSpires.com. Summer Showdown features a daily contest while Let 8 Ride let's you keep playing only if you hit a win bet in the eighth race each day. Friday has sunset racing leading into the International Festival of Racing on Saturday with guaranteed pools on the all-stakes Pick 5 ($100,000) and Pick 4 ($200,000).

     Want a shot at all that money but not as familiar with racing this week at Arlington Park because of Polytrack, the Europeans, etc.? Brisnet.com has some Arlington-specific information to help you handicap. Arlington At A Glance provides a snapshot of how the track is playing as well as horsemen to watch in the races with mostly local horses.

     Regardless of distance or surface, closers are not doing well at Arlington. In main track (Polytrack) sprints (one mile or less), "E" type is the best pace style at six, seven, and eight furlongs. "P" types fare better at 1 1/16 miles. On the turf, speed or tracking speed is far better than a sustained late run.

     There does not, however, appear to be a better part of the track, as there is plenty of variety under the "best posts" column from rail, rail/inside, middle, and outside.

     The stats tell the story of what's happened at Arlington, but what about what might happen with the Euros? We won't know for sure until Saturday, but Nick Luck of Channel 4 in England joined Steve Byk on Wednesday to discuss all 14 European horses. Click here for an .mp3 of that conversation.

     Also discussing how the European horses factor in the Million day wagering, is Mark Johnson, who will provide Brisnet.com with Spotlight Selections covering the whole Million day card with a special focus on international class.

     Regardless of how Arlington plays this week, we know it's going to pay this week. If you solve the pari-mutuel puzzle, the payouts are nice. 40-to-1 on exactas, 44-to-1 on doubles, and $1,650 average on $.50 Pick 4s. TwinSpires is adding to the money as well with $6,000 guaranteed in Summer Showdown (including a potential $4,500 pot for sweeping the Million day card) and $1,500 in free money for Let 8 Ride players who make it to Saturday and Sunday.

     On personal level I'm excited because the racing at Arlington has kept me afloat in recent years thanks to the Pick 5 on Arlington Preview day in 2011 and the Pick 5 on Million day last year. With 12,168 combos available in the all-Festival-stakes Pick 4 on Saturday and a $200,000 guaranteed pool I plan to come out with guns blazing. Hopefully I'll have money left after chasing that Pick 5 carryover on Thursday, though!

     Speaking of that Thursday card, here is my ABC grid for the nine race extravaganza.

  • The 2013 Arlington Million playlist

    POSTED Aug 11, 2013 By Unknown
    My trip to Arlington Heights on Monday from Lexington on Monday will take much longer than the six hours it would in an about-straight shot. That's mainly due to a couple of nosh stops along the way--lunch at Brugge Brasserie in the Broad Ripple neighborhood of Indianapolis and dinner at Three Floyds Brewbub in Munster Indiana.

     It's three hours to lunch, another 2 1/2 hours to dinner, and then about an hour from dinner to bed near the track. I was torn how to approach the playlist: A six-hour tour de force to get me there and back? A standard 60-75-minute CD-style collection? In the end I leaned more toward the latter, packing 97:44 of music onto a 26-track mix.

     There a few new complete albums (Polyphonic Spree's "Yes, It's True" and Edward Sharp and the Magnetic Zero's eponymous offerings) I've been wanting to check out, so the thought is I can get through my mix and both of those before dinner before letting the mix get me "home" for the week.

     Here's the listing:

     "Mope" by the Bloodhound Gang
    "No Diggity" by Blackstreet
    "C'mon Let Me Ride" by Skylar Grey featuring Eminem
    "Lip Gloss" by Lil Mama
    "Girlfriend" (remix) by Avril Lavigne featuring Lil Mama
    "Here's To Never Growing Up" by Avril Lavigne
    "My Strongest Suit" by The Spice Girls
    "I Love It" by Icona Pop
    "Christmas Tree" by Lady Gaga featuring Space Cowboy
    "Telephone" by Lady Gaga & Beyonce
    "Survivor" by Destiny's Child
    "Come Into My Head" (remix) by Kimbra
    "Summertime Sadness" by Lana Del Rey & Cedric Gervais
    "Sail" by AWOLNATION
    "Bad Education" by Tilly and the Wall
    "Girls Like Status" by The Hold Steady
    "One Week" by Barenaked Ladies
    "Here's Johnny" by Weird Al Yankovic
    "Hot Dog!" by They Might Be Giants
    "That's Not My Name" by the Ting Tings
    "Hello" by Martin Solveig & Dragonette
    "We're Getting A Divorce, You Keep the Diner" by Gaslight Anthem
    "White People For Peace" by Against Me!
    "This River Is Wild" by The Killers
    "Arms And Hearts" by The Hold Steady
    "Off To The Races" by Lana Del Rey