Showing posts with label summer showdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label summer showdown. Show all posts

  • A-B-C-Deep on the Arlington Million day card at Arlington International Racecourse

    POSTED Aug 17, 2013 By Unknown
    You don't need a Ph.D. in Cristometrics to take a look at my ABC grid and figure out that I'll be leaning on the "A" column a lot.

     The internal conversation goes something like this, "If I'm using this horse then I have to use this horse." That's why Indy Point is a lone "A". I'm willing to bet that he's the horse many thinks he is, and 3-to-1 isn't a bar price for that opinion. But after him can I really use a horse like Finnegan's Wake (yes) but split hairs on Mull of Kilough and The Apache? No.

     So the hope is that I get at least two "A" horses home in the all-stakes $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4, and I'll probably need at least three such horses in the $100,000 guaranteed Pick 5. My selections for races 8, 9, and 10 are also good for TwinSpires.com Jackpot 5 purposes. The bet kicks off today with a $25,000 carryover and includes the Grade 1s from Arlington as well as races from Indiana & Louisiana Downs.

     Good luck to all those playing today, including Summer Showdown, Jackpot 5, and the great wagering menu on Arlington Million day at Arlington International Racecourse--a Pick 6, a Pick 5, three Pick 4s, and rolling doubles and Pick 3s.

  • Million eve ABCs

    POSTED Aug 16, 2013 By Unknown
    Here is the ABC grid for Friday, August 16, at Arlington Park, which John G. Dooley just called one of his favorite days of the year. I can't imagine how excited he is for Million day itself, then!

    In addition to the great wagering menu Arlington offers, TwinSpires.com adds to the excitement with day two of Summer Showdown with a $3,000 carryover and Let 8 Ride requiring a $91 win wager on today's eighth race, which as you can probably surmise from the grid below I'd put on #3, Gostosa, who looks to be lone speed in that affair.

    Back to Summer Showdown, obviously the lone "A" picks are the tabs in those particular races. In the 2yo races (races 2 & 7) I'd be inclined to follow the money and bet the shortest price of my "A" picks.

    Good luck to all those playing, and save some bankroll for the first-ever Jackpot 5 wager that launches Saturday only on TwinSpires with a $25,000 "carryover" for a unique winner.

  • Big races, big money, big fun Arlington Million week

    POSTED Aug 14, 2013 By Unknown
    Whether it's carryovers, guaranteed pools, or contests you like (and especially if it's all of the above), Arlington Million week on TwinSpires.com offers great wagering opportunities to go along with the great racing at Arlington International Racecourse.

     Thursday features a $14,270 Pick 5 carryover and the start of both Summer Showdown and Let 8 Ride contests on TwinSpires.com. Summer Showdown features a daily contest while Let 8 Ride let's you keep playing only if you hit a win bet in the eighth race each day. Friday has sunset racing leading into the International Festival of Racing on Saturday with guaranteed pools on the all-stakes Pick 5 ($100,000) and Pick 4 ($200,000).

     Want a shot at all that money but not as familiar with racing this week at Arlington Park because of Polytrack, the Europeans, etc.? Brisnet.com has some Arlington-specific information to help you handicap. Arlington At A Glance provides a snapshot of how the track is playing as well as horsemen to watch in the races with mostly local horses.

     Regardless of distance or surface, closers are not doing well at Arlington. In main track (Polytrack) sprints (one mile or less), "E" type is the best pace style at six, seven, and eight furlongs. "P" types fare better at 1 1/16 miles. On the turf, speed or tracking speed is far better than a sustained late run.

     There does not, however, appear to be a better part of the track, as there is plenty of variety under the "best posts" column from rail, rail/inside, middle, and outside.

     The stats tell the story of what's happened at Arlington, but what about what might happen with the Euros? We won't know for sure until Saturday, but Nick Luck of Channel 4 in England joined Steve Byk on Wednesday to discuss all 14 European horses. Click here for an .mp3 of that conversation.

     Also discussing how the European horses factor in the Million day wagering, is Mark Johnson, who will provide Brisnet.com with Spotlight Selections covering the whole Million day card with a special focus on international class.

     Regardless of how Arlington plays this week, we know it's going to pay this week. If you solve the pari-mutuel puzzle, the payouts are nice. 40-to-1 on exactas, 44-to-1 on doubles, and $1,650 average on $.50 Pick 4s. TwinSpires is adding to the money as well with $6,000 guaranteed in Summer Showdown (including a potential $4,500 pot for sweeping the Million day card) and $1,500 in free money for Let 8 Ride players who make it to Saturday and Sunday.

     On personal level I'm excited because the racing at Arlington has kept me afloat in recent years thanks to the Pick 5 on Arlington Preview day in 2011 and the Pick 5 on Million day last year. With 12,168 combos available in the all-Festival-stakes Pick 4 on Saturday and a $200,000 guaranteed pool I plan to come out with guns blazing. Hopefully I'll have money left after chasing that Pick 5 carryover on Thursday, though!

     Speaking of that Thursday card, here is my ABC grid for the nine race extravaganza.

  • The parlay savant

    POSTED Jul 19, 2013 By Unknown
    He did it again.

    Just ten days after turning $16 into $1,000 in Let 8 Ride, Ryan Yokoyama turned $10 into $1,551 in TwinSpires.com's Summer Showdown promotion by going eight-for-eight on $10 show bets Thursday at Del Mar. Also scoring a perfecto for his show wagering was "TPB", whose octet paid $65 in show winnings plus $1,500 from Summer Showdown.

    There were six players live going into the last race on Thursday. Yokoyama chose eventual winner Te Rapa as his show play while "TPB" went with favored Tamarack Smarty, who just did surge past pacesetter Beachcombing to nab third and an extra $1,514 for "TBP."

    "I give more preference to stalkers/pressers in the show contest unless I feel a speed horse will get a favorable scenario and/or has the best numbers," Yokoyama said of his Summer Showdown strategy.

     The first race was the biggest score for Yokomama, as 5.2-to-1 Minds Eyes paid $5 to show. "TPB" had 5.8-to-1 winner Tasty Treat in that race for a $5.20 show payoff, but his biggest score was in race 5 when 10-to-1 Plus One finished second and paid $5.40 to show.

     "I really don't have a secret," Yokomama said. "I love playing the contests, so they get a little more attention. I'm looking forward to the VIP contest [on Saturday]."

     The jackpot for Thursday's card was $3,000 instead of $1,500 because nobody successfully navigated Wednesday's (opening day's) ten-race sequence. If no one is perfect, then that day's $1,500 carries over to the next day. I.e., if no one had showed 8 on Thursday, then today's pot would have been $4,500. Instead, it's $1,500 for the eight-race card that begins at 7 p.m. EDT, 4p PT.

    The only day the perfection provision is not in place is on Sundays when those who last the longest split the pot. The action remains at one track each week, so the contest is at Del Mar through Sunday before shifting to Saratoga on Wednesday, July 24.

  • Show me the carryovers!

    POSTED Jul 18, 2013 By Unknown
    The first of 34 Summer Showdown days is in the books, and nobody picked 10 (or 9 or 8) on the opening day program at Del Mar, which means there's $3,000 up for grabs today--$1,500 from Wednesday plus the guaranteed $1,500 every day.

     If you played yesterday don't get discouraged; today's task is easier since there is only eight races on the card. If you can pick a horse to show 50% of the time, then that 20% reduction in races makes you about four times more likely to sweep the card! We've doubled the money available, and your'e four times more likely to win it. Can't beat that! If you didn't play yesterday, then today is a great day to jump in because of the extra money.

     The other good news for those taking a run, is you won't have my pitiful show selections around to gum up your game. I was out after the first race yesterday, and only three of my ten picks managed to hit the board.

     However, even though my handicapping did not produce winners show horses, I stand behind the strategy because those who did connect early were playing with house money the rest of the day by virtue of all three show payoffs in the first race being more than $4. I.e., Any winning $10 show bet returned more than $20, so even after placing another $10 bet on race two, you were up on the day for that particular wager.

     Even better is that the average show price among the 30 horses to hit the board on the program was $4.60, and only one race (the second) did not include a horse who paid at least $4 to show. With judicious handicapping and selection, your show bets can make Summer Showdown a freeroll for $1,500 (or more!) every day through September 1!

     Of all the players who placed a $10 show wager on the first race, Richard L. lasted the longest with seven consecutive winning plays before dropping race 8 (a race that also tripped me up). If he makes it that far today AND nails that elusive eighth race then he'll win or share the $3,000.

     My focus today is on a carryover I am eligible for: the $12,903 carryover in the Pick 5 at Arlington International Racecourse. A pair of third choices on the morning lines are the key for me as single "A" picks: #1 Pranksterbdancing in Race 6 (leg 2) and #7 Tornadito in race 7 (leg 3).

     Pranksterbdancing looks to have a big pace edge on the field of lower level claimers and the opportunity to beat the logical 7-to-5 and 2-to-1 morning line choices could really boost the Pick 5 payout. Tornadito drops in and cuts back off a speed and fade job from an outside post in his debut.