Showing posts with label Blue Grass. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blue Grass. Show all posts

  • Crazy Over Keeneland

    POSTED Apr 11, 2014 By Derek Simon

    Don’t look now (well, you can if you want to), but there’s some big races coming up at Keeneland this weekend. Located in the heart of Bluegrass Country in Lexington, Kentucky, Keeneland Racecourse is among the most beautiful thoroughbred facilities in the country — perhaps the world.

    So what better place to watch the 2014 debut of two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan or the most prolific Kentucky Derby prep in history?

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    On Friday, Morton Fink’s six-year-old gelded son of Wiseman’s Ferry will take on six rivals in an attempt to win the Maker’s Mile for the second year in a row, while, on Saturday, Bobby’s Kitten heads a full field of 15 entered in the Blue Grass Stakes, a race which has produced a record 23 Kentucky Derby winners.

    Below is a look at each event, along with the Arkansas Derby, another great Derby prep scheduled for Saturday:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Suggested Play(s): 3-WISE DAN is clearly the horse to beat, but his probable price — and the short field — have me hunting for potential value in the show pool. Simply put, I expect “Danny Boy” to generate a (large) negative show pool and I think, given his age and recent workout pattern (I’m not a fan of the three-furlong breeze on April 8), the defending champ may be vulnerable.

     Plus, negative pools give one a shot at a huge payday with very little risk. Hence, I’m looking at show bets on 4-GENTLEMAN'S KITTEN, who has a pace advantage, and 7-KAIGUN, who ran a bang-up race at Gulfstream Park in his latest.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Suggested Play(s): Print out the past performances, buy a dart and fire away.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Suggested Play(s): Primarily, I’m looking to beat 8-BAYERN, who had things all his way last time and makes his stakes debut following a 58-day layoff. 3-TAPITURE and 9-STRONG MANDATE are the logical alternatives, but I’m really intrigued by 2-KNOCK EM FLAT. Not only has the son Flatter shown tremendous improvement in recent weeks, his speed and pace figures are among the best in the field.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • It's not the last chance, it's a big chance

    POSTED Apr 13, 2013 By Unknown
    Leg 2 of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com concludes today, and while many have called it "the last chance" for three-year-olds to guarantee themselves a spot in the starting gate, that's really only because of where the races fall on the calendar since these 170-point chances today are the same as the previous five Leg 2 races on March 30 and April 6.

     I.e., if these races were two weeks ago they'd be just as valuable and prestigious. These races aren't the last chance, they're a big chance--for a Grade 1 win, big money, points toward the Derby, and to join a long list of some of racing's biggest stars.


    It's a big chance for gamblers, too. I typically hate the term "wide-open" race, but it's impossible to ignore that the favorite in either race is extremely vulnerable. Even the top choices in both races are.




    My main focus today is unquestionably the blockbuster 12-race Blue Grass card. What a blessing to watch Horse of the Year Wise Dan win his six-year-old debut, turn the page and see this card with three Grade 1 races, an all-stakes Pick 4, two Pick 5s, and of course one of the top preps for the world's most prestigious horse race. 

    Unlike Friday, though, there are precious few "gimmes" on this card. Whereas Wise Dan was nearly a free square in his race, no such block exists on today's card. The ABC grid is below.

  • Bruno With The Works: Rydilluc In Focus

    POSTED Apr 10, 2013 By Unknown
    Bruno With The Works is Brisnet.com's latest product offering: A workout service for the top races throughout the country, including Keeneland, Oaks-Derby week at Churchill Downs, Triple Crown events, Saratoga, Del Mar, and the Breeders' Cup World Championships. In addition to fantastic workout analysis coast to coast Bruno de Julio and his team will provide perspective on watching horses train. The first installment of this story appears below. Rydilluc is in this week's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. For a complete list of handicapping reports for Keeneland, including BRUNO WITH THE WORKS, click here.

     The 20 horses who will line up in the starting gate to run for the roses this year are horses like any of the other 28,000 Thoroughbreds born in 2010.

     Some are homebreds: born and raised by the same owners in whose silks they run. Others are purchased through the auction ring, sometimes multiple times: I'll Have Another sold for $11k at the 2010 Keeneland Yearling sale and was "pinhooked" as a two-year-old in Ocala for $35k. That's a nifty profit in just seven months.

    Few horses are purchased for vast sums at auction and go on to true greatness: $4-million yearling and eventual Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus is one of the rare exceptions. Several top horses actually didn't sell or had to be withdrawn: Sunday Silence was a $32k buy-back (or "RNA" for Reserve Not Attained); Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, who raced as a homebred for Team Valor, was a $100k RNA at the 2009 Keeneland sale.

    Bodemeister was withdrawn from the 2011 Fasig Tipton Florida sale because the connections "knew he had the potential of being a star, but he simply wasn't going to bring the kind of money you wouldn't want to turn down," owner Ahmed Zayat told us.
    This year, it's Rydilluc who has the interesting sales history: the beautiful bay son of Medaglia d'Oro was chased over a six month span by one very determined man who saw his potential.

    Bred in Kentucky by Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds, Rydilluc was purchased out of the 2011 Keeneland Yearling sale for $55k by Straightaway Farms.

    After learning the ropes in Ocala, the colt showed up in the Secure Investments consignment at the Palm Meadows Florida sale in March 2012. Racingwithbruno spent that winter in Florida and watched the future Rydilluc's pre-sale breeze in :10.3, and out 23 for a quarter. When it came to preview day, though, the colt didn't quite fire and worked in 11.1, 22.3, and galloped out in 35.4. Not a bad work by any means, but it wasn't enough for him to fetch his $90k reserve.

    The colt would show up at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale several months later around Preakness weekend. He previewed much better over the tighter turns of the old racetrack in 10.3, 22, and galloping out in 36.4. Still not the prettiest of movers, the colt covered ground like a horse who would appreciate added real estate. Horses like him fool buyers because they take the whole quarter mile preview to get fully into stride.

    One man who wasn't fooled was Gary Contessa. In his words, "I loved him and bid on him down in Florida," but decided to let him go when the price got too steep. The veteran trainer got a shot at redemption when he saw the Timonium catalog. "I was absolutely certain that I was the only one on him at $150k'' said Contessa. "I had to have him. I emailed everyone and told them this was their Derby horse," said a grinning Gary. It's evident that telling Rydilluc's story has become this trainer's new favorite pastime.
    Contessa is an excellent conditioner known for training the likes of Runway Rosie, Sweet Vendetta, and Papi Chullo. He also campaigned Do It With Style, who famously won Keeneland's Grade 1 Ashland Stakes without a whip. Contessa is recognized as a major player at the two-year-old sales: a recent Blood Horse MarketWatch article ranked him second among Thoroughbred trainers over the past 15 years based on purchase price v. earnings.

    It's not all about winning for Gary: his enthusiasm for the game is contagious. "I love having my family, my clients, the owners come out and see their horses train," he told us at Saratoga last year. "They get to see what their horses are up to and I love the company."

     Contessa was the initial trainer of Peace Rules after buying the son of Jules for $35k, but he sold him to Bobby Frankel/Edmund Gann for "the high six figures." Peace Rules went on to win the Blue Grass Stakes and finish third in the Kentucky Derby. Now Contessa has Rydilluc for this week's Blue Grass, and he would be his first Derby starter.

    After a less than stellar debut on dirt, it was the Rydilluc's second start on the Aqueduct turf in November 2012 that Contessa knew he had something: the horse had shown speed and was getting stronger under a mild hand ride late by Edgar Prado at odds of nearly 18-1.

    When asked about trying the dirt again, Contessa said "I understand that we are following a dream. If it turns out I am wrong, we may still have the best grass three-year-old out there. I can accept that!" Since shipping to Keeneland a week ago, Rydilluc has flourished and his trainer believes he still has more maturing to do.

    The colt had a seven-furlong work over the PolyTrack where he finished in 24.2 for the final quarter and wanted to do more. What's even more impressive than his physical size and presence is his attention span: "He loves to stand on the track and just watch horses train," said Contessa. This is a quality very few horses have and, those that do are some of racing's greats: among them Tiznow and Zenyatta.

    We watched Rydilluc for 30 minutes on Wednesday: he doesn't get ruffled, doesn't get hot or antsy. When fellow Blue Grass rival Balance the Books came out of the paddock within feet of Rydilluc, the dark bay just looked over and nodded his head. He didn't flinch. The ability to have an intense nature but not get caught up in what's going around you is the trait of many a great horse, and certainly a horse who can keep focus for a mile and a quarter.

    If the big bay colt wins the Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday, he has a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Just as Babe Ruth pointed to the sky before hitting it out of the ballpark, Contessa could be doing the same with Rydilluc: he bought an unproved two-year-old at auction and swung for the fences.

  • TCI weekend wrap up: lovin' the winners

    POSTED Apr 17, 2012 By Unknown
    The TCI boys were suitably impressed with this weekend's Grade 1 winners to move both up in their poll with Bodemeister now second following his Arkansas Derby win and Dullahan sixth following his Blue Grass Stakes win.


    MY TAKE: I was bullheaded rather than bullish regarding Dullahan's chances in the Blue Grass, and although I'm trying to learn from that mistake, I just can't be on board in the Kentucky Derby at a suppressed price following a dazzling win on synthetic considering he is 3-0-0-1 on dirt, 3-0-2-1 on turf, and 2-2-0-0 on Polytrack. The latter is a nice way to pick up a pair of Grade 1 wins, but as someone who offered 30-to-1 on this horse to win the Derby I have to hope that a combination of the surface and his running style is too much to overcome on Derby day.

    All that is not to say that I was not impressed with Dullahan's Blue Grass effort. I was plan wrong about him in that race (saying he wasn't fast enough, etc.). He came running like a freight train at the end and caught a good horse. Remember, Union Rags made a similar run at Hansen in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and couldn't get by, so the champion is a game horse and Dullahan got him easily.

    Bodemeister, on the other hand, ran a similarly electrifying race in winning the Arkansas Derby, and is far more proven on dirt than is Dullahan and has a better running style for 1 1/4 miles at Churchill. Barring getting stuck on the rail or the 20, I think he'll be the favorite to win the roses.

    Of course, there are some intangibles working against him. The biggest thing we'll read/head about via the media is that no horse who did not race at two has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882. But in terms of a wagering proposition, I'm more concerned with how his gaudy speed figure/rating will affect his price. He received a 105 BRIS Speed Rating and a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. As much as I prefer the former and rely on it more, it'd be naive of me to think that the latter isn't what will contribute to the steam on this horse, and I'm willing to go against it based on the flame outs we've seen from such big-figure favorites as Bellamy Road and Sweetnorthernsaint.

    He's the type of horse I'll make a "B" selection. I don't want him to beat me--especially if other horses I like run well--but he's a certain underlay so I'll want to make sure I'm as invested as possible in the value, which is a topic I hope to address in the coming weeks since that value can shift dramatically pool to pool. Animal Kingdom was 20.9-to-1 in the win pool, but the exotic payouts indicate a price more in the 15- or 18-to-1 range. Certainly the casual money that bets whomever Borel or Rosie is riding is more likely to be in the win pool than other pools.

  • D'oh-ahan

    POSTED Apr 15, 2012 By Unknown
    One of my strongest opinions this weekend revolved not around who would win a race but who wouldn't, as I was extremely vocal in my disdain in Dullahan being viewed as a top-ranked contender in the Blue Grass Stakes.

    Of course, he showed me as an easy 1 1/4-length winner over champion Hansen with no other horses contending. In retrospect Dullahan certainly made 3.2-to-1 look like a fair price, but more frustrating to me is that I didn't see the Blue Grass as a two-horse race. No matter how many times you run today's Blue Grass, Dullahan wins at least half the time and Hansen wins the balance minus maybe 5% or 10% for the other 13 horses.

    Put another way, the poorest choice I made was not underestimating Dullahan's chances but overestimating other's chances, since it's money spent on them that I wasted. I actually had tickets that included Hero of Order. Granted, those spread tickets also included Dullahan, but even if I preferred Hansen, there was value in taking a stand with only two horses (even if they were the top two choices) in a 13-horse field--especially in the multi-race wagers.

    I went B-A-A-C-A in a $.50 Pick 5 that paid $3,202.65 plus consos, and it was a sequence that I would have connected had a focused on the most likely winners of the Blue Grass rather than my perceived win value.

    It's Monday morning quarterbacking, of course, and there are other races where a staunch single--even on a favorite--makes sense, but I definitely feel after the fact that I should have recognized that even though I preferred Hansen there were really only two horses who could have won the Blue Grass.

    If I'm going to eat crow, I might as well learn something from it, right? The dynamics of multi-race wagering definitely offer the chance to capitalize on win pool underlays who are still likely winners.

    We'll revisit both Grade 1 races with the TCI boys early this week as well as take a look at the graded stakes earnings standings and my expected win odds for Derby contenders. Maybe on video this week I'll wear my Gemologist hat atop a Dullahan shirt although nothing wrong with some TwinSpires threads!
     

  • Will final preps chalk out?

    POSTED Apr 12, 2012 By Unknown
    Although any of the Lexington (4/21 at Keeneland), Jerome (4/21 Aqueduct), or Derby Trial (4/28 at Churchill) Stakes could yield a Kentucky Derby starter in the two weekends between this one and the first Saturday in May, it is more likely that the field will mostly be set following the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

    My prediction is that the bubble horses in danger of being left out of the Kentucky Derby starting gate because of insufficient graded stakes earnings will like the results of the Blue Grass better than the Arkansas Derby since I foresee champion Hansen padding his bankroll in the former with Bodemeister earning enough to get in the gate and knocking someone else out with a win or second-place finish in the latter.

    The TCI boys weigh in on this weekend's action as well as give me a special gift from WinStar's Elliott Walden, who has noticed that I haven't had a lot of love for the farm's Tiznow colt, but at least I have a parting gift if he beats me again.

    In other graded stakes scenarios a la the last weekend of the National Football League season, Isn't He Clever and Optimizer need only third-place finishes to have enough graded stakes earnings, so a Bodemeister, Isn't He Clever, Optimizer tri box with Bodemeister in one of the top two spots is the bubble horses' worst nightmare. I like Secret Circle enough to say that's not the most likely scenario, but it certainly could happen.

    What does Toga Tout thing? Well, he's rooting for Bob Baffert "heart attack and all" and expects the Racing Hall of Fame trainer's two entries to make up at least two third of the trifecta with the aforementioned Bodemeister and Secret Circle. Too bad Oaklawn doesn't offer the ill-fated omni. Toga Tout could crush the Baffert pair.

  • What are the odds?

    POSTED Apr 9, 2012 By Unknown
    As much as the racing March 31-April 1 juggled the Kentucky Derby picture, the action on April 7 mostly held up the status quo, as nothing that happened in the Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, or Wood Memorial inspired me to change my top nine horses o
    As much as the racing March 31-April 1 juggled the Kentucky Derby picture, the action on April 7 mostly held up the status quo, as nothing that happened in the Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, or Wood Memorial inspired me to change my topnine horses on the Road to Louisville, though I did usurp Mark Valeski in tenth with Rousing Sermon just because I like the latter's two-year-old form and style to maybe land in the gimmicks at a huge price if he gets in.

    Overall I was more impressed with the Santa Anita Derby than the Wood Memorial, though that's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy since I've said for the past few weeks that I think the better group of horses is out West. I haven't been high on Alpha all year, so Gemologist barely beating him doesn't really get the juices flowing. It's possible that both Wood horses are better than I'm giving them credit for, and if that's the case then I'll be a likely loser come May 5 (if Gemologist or Alpha does win then hopefully it's Rousing Sermon finishing second).

    One of the more interesting discussions to erupt after Saturday's action was not about who is most likely to win the Kentucky Derby but who the public would think is most likely to win. With the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby still to go plus three weeks of preparation after that, several things can happen to change the odds:
    ·        Upsets in either race
    o       If a horse who needed a win to get in the Derby wins then he is likely 15- or 20-to-1 at best for the Derby, but that means a 50-to-1 bubble horse might be out, which means the price(s) on the favorite(s) go(es) up as well. This is a good thing supporters of horses like Union Rags, Gemologist, etc.
    ·        Hansen airmails
    o       Union Rags’ third-place finish left Hansen a logical alternative among individual interests inpool 3 of the future wager, and even though he was 8.4-to-1 that day, I think he’d need to win the Blue Grass impressively to be 8-to-1 on May 5. 10-to-1 seems more likely with a solid effort.
    ·        Bodemeister wins
    o       Bodemeister needs an Arkansas Derby win to clinch a Derby stall, but such a win would not be an upset. If he’s not favored in the Arkansas Derby he’ll be among the top choices. A truly remarkable performance not only gets him to Kentucky but also makes him one of the top choices.
    ·        Secret Circle dominates
    o       Secret Circle is probably the most under-the-radar Bob Baffert-trainer colt with multiple stakes wins in the history of the Hall of Fame conditioner’s career. Most horses with Secret Circle’s resume for this trainer would be an overwhelming favorite for the Derby at this stage, but Secret Circle just can’t seem to shake the idea that he’s a sprinter. It doesn’t help that back in February Jason Shandler and Brad Free both quoted Baffert as saying that Secret Circle isn’t a Derby horse. Still, a big win in Arkansas certainly would suppress his price.

    The big question with any of the above scenarios is to figure out as prices change whether the longshots get longer or the favorites do. Recent history tells us that the crowd is reticent to send horses off at higher than 60-to-1 odds—even on horses who should be 200-to-1. Three horses at 50-to-1 who should be 60-to-1 each means a horse who should pay $14 to win might pay $15. Yes,the favorite-longshot bias is alive and well in the Kentucky Derby.

    So here’s a first look at how I think the odds will shake out on May 5. I’ve left three spots blank and averaged them out to 30-to-1 because I already have three horses at 50-to-1 and if any of those horses don’t go then their replacements (e.g. Mark Valeski, El Padrino) are likely to be less odds. Rousing Sermon is an exception since he’d be 40-to-1 or more.

    It’s crazy to think that the favorite could be 7-to-1 in this race, but unlike most years when that would be a damning statement, for me this year it’s a testament of how strong this group is. If I were to make Union Rags and Gemologist both 5-to-1 and Take Charge Indy, the top two from the Santa Anita Derby, and Hansen 8-to-1 then the odds elsewhere skyrocket, and that’s if Bodemeister and Secret Circle don’t impress.