D'oh-ahan
One of my strongest opinions this weekend revolved not around who would win a race but who wouldn't, as I was extremely vocal in my disdain in Dullahan being viewed as a top-ranked contender in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Of course, he showed me as an easy 1 1/4-length winner over champion Hansen with no other horses contending. In retrospect Dullahan certainly made 3.2-to-1 look like a fair price, but more frustrating to me is that I didn't see the Blue Grass as a two-horse race. No matter how many times you run today's Blue Grass, Dullahan wins at least half the time and Hansen wins the balance minus maybe 5% or 10% for the other 13 horses.
Put another way, the poorest choice I made was not underestimating Dullahan's chances but overestimating other's chances, since it's money spent on them that I wasted. I actually had tickets that included Hero of Order. Granted, those spread tickets also included Dullahan, but even if I preferred Hansen, there was value in taking a stand with only two horses (even if they were the top two choices) in a 13-horse field--especially in the multi-race wagers.
I went B-A-A-C-A in a $.50 Pick 5 that paid $3,202.65 plus consos, and it was a sequence that I would have connected had a focused on the most likely winners of the Blue Grass rather than my perceived win value.
It's Monday morning quarterbacking, of course, and there are other races where a staunch single--even on a favorite--makes sense, but I definitely feel after the fact that I should have recognized that even though I preferred Hansen there were really only two horses who could have won the Blue Grass.
If I'm going to eat crow, I might as well learn something from it, right? The dynamics of multi-race wagering definitely offer the chance to capitalize on win pool underlays who are still likely winners.
We'll revisit both Grade 1 races with the TCI boys early this week as well as take a look at the graded stakes earnings standings and my expected win odds for Derby contenders. Maybe on video this week I'll wear my Gemologist hat atop a Dullahan shirt although nothing wrong with some TwinSpires threads!
87 comments:
I HAVE ONE THING TO TELL LEPARROU IN THE DERBY JUST LET THE UNION RAG RUN ON IS OWN ALL HE HAS TO DO LET RUN .SARGEOFJA HE WILL HAVE FIRST DERBY WINNER .
Thank you for helping people get the information they need. Great stuff as usual. Keep up the great work!!!
my response
Thanks for posting this info. I just want to let you know that I just check out your site and I find it very interesting and informative. I can't wait to read lots of your posts.
read more
Play here online endless running game and enjoy unlimited fun really an amazing online place of fun you have to move forward and avoid the obstacles before it get and loops a new stage.Thanks for this one.
Nice
I enjoyed over read your blog post. Your blog have nice information, I got good ideas from this amazing blog. I am always searching like this type blog post. ornaments
Play here online endless running game and enjoy unlimited fun really an amazing online place of fun you have to move forward and avoid the obstacles before it get and loops a new stage.Thanks for this one.
Themeyum
WordPress began as a free wordpress blog template platform. Today WordPress websites are everywhere, covering every niche imaginable. WordPress websites come in several flavors, each designed for a certain set of audience or need. Some wordpress themes are especially attractive to niche markets, such as shopping carts or e-commerce wordpress plugins. This makes WordPress one of the most popular platforms for websites, and why so many WordPress users look for wordpress plugins
I have been exploring for a little bit for any high-quality articles or weblog posts in this kind of house . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this web site. Studying this information So i am glad to show that I have an incredibly good uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I such a lot undoubtedly will make certain to don?¦t disregard this web site and provides it a look regularly. flirt for free
very interesting post.this is my first time visit here.i found so many interesting stuff in your blog especially its discussion..thanks for the post! 321 chat
kite
kite
kite
kite
kite
kite
There are numerous approaches to watch Netflix on your TV – all you require is a gadget with the Netflix application! The Netflix application is accessible on many Smart TVs, game consoles, streaming media players, set-top boxes, and Blu-beam players. trincomalee beach sri lanka
It as nearly impossible to find educated people on this subject, but you seem like you know what you are talking about! Thanks Buy Online
Very interesting topic, regards for posting. “He who seizes the right moment is the right man.” by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe. Aluminium Security Doors Melbourne
Fantastic post! Please keep sharing. I know of a roofing company if you are looking for Game Please get in touch! Thanks, have a good day.Game
Game
Game
This is a great article thanks for sharing this informative information. I will visit your blog regularly for some latest post. I will visit your blog regularly for Some latest post.Game
I am thankful to you for sharing this article here.It's a nice article, Which you have shared here . Your article is very informative and I really liked the way you expressed your views in this post.seo
There is a possibility that the plants will be washed later in the microwave oven, do not use staples, paper clips, or other metal objects. Sometimes additional information is required to provide complete differentiation, as well as special staining techniques. travel
Some truly nice and utilitarian info on this internet site , besides I think the layout holds wonderful features.cosmetic Cape Verde Holidays
This type of message always inspiring and I prefer to read quality content, so happy to find good place to many here in the post, the writing is just great, thanks for the post. Budapest Property agency
We’re an online shopping marketplace and we provide an affordable and seamless shopping experience. AllShopBiz offers shopping deals on the world’s largest selection of products and services. You can explore large range of products and product categories, as we provide you with the best prices across a wide-spread range of Electronics, Clothing and Apparels, Furniture etc. Looking for a website to purchase some electronic goods, but you don’t know where you can find a website where you can find everything related to electronics and more at a reasonable price?Shop Store
very interesting post.this is my first time visit here.i found so many interesting stuff in your blog especially its discussion..thanks for the post! Monster Truck Show
Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon. Big thanks for the useful info.
Blog
Blog
Blog
Blog
Blog
Blog
Hello. remarkable job. I did not anticipate this. This is a remarkable story. Thanks! https://hairlossbimedi.com hair loss medications for men. United Arab Emirates
Right here is the perfect website for anyone who hopes to understand this topic. You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really will need toÖHaHa). You definitely put a brand new spin on a topic that’s been discussed for ages. Great stuff, just great! For more visit this site
I am very enjoyed for this blog. Its an informative topic. It help me very much to solve some problems. Its opportunity are so fantastic and working style so speedy.
Ceiling Wall Painting Springfield VA
I’m really impressed together with your writing skills as smartly as with the layout in your weblog. Is this a paid subject or did you customize it your self? Either way keep up the excellent high quality writing, it’s rare to look a great weblog like this one these days. การ์ดแต่งงาน
Sight word recognition and spelling is an important component to reading and writing in the primary classroom. It is important for our students to be able to quickly identify sight words and then to be able to spell them. This activity makes a fun literacy center, fast finisher activity, or morning work task. Plus it’s editable, so you can customize it to your classroom sight words list. game light
Whats Taking place i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It absolutely helpful and it has aided me out loads. I am hoping to contribute & aid other customers like its aided me. Good job.Monster Truck Show
With tropical cuisines which hail from the ancient times as well as world-famous crafts such as pottery and drum making, the Sri Lankan essence is sought after by many tourists, which we are ready to provide to you with many enchanting holiday experiences.ฤกษ์แต่งงาน
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking everywhere for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thanks again.gaminglight
Hey Blair! Good job on this article! I was looking for some quick recipes for snacks for my little nephew, To my surprise, he really enjoyed them; he usually don’t like what I make. ???? I just wanted to thank you Blair for sharing this post. It was a big help! Budapest rent
Wow, cool post. I’d like to write like this too – taking time and real hard work to make a great article… but I put things off too much and never seem to get started. Himalayan Persian Cat
Thank you for another informative web site. Where else could I get that type of information written in such a perfect way? I have a project that I am just now working on, and I’ve been on the look out for such information. Budapest apartments
Beautiful a great post. I fair faltered upon your web journal and needed to say that I have truly delighted in perusing your web journal posts. Long Island Cedar Siding Contractor
If writing and researching is not your cup of tea, then we understand how hard it would be for you to complete your assignments. Our assignment help in Saudi Arabia is offered for students who want to get assistance writing the assignments from experts with relevant qualifications and knowledge.
The very next time I read a blog, I hope that it won’t disappoint me as much as this one. After all, I know it was my choice to read, however I genuinely thought you’d have something useful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you can fix if you weren’t too busy searching for attention. Solar Investing
You are in the final year of your graduate degree program and you are supposed to write an essay and submit it just in a week. You already have your hands full because an exam is coming up, you have to participate in a quiz etc. And on top that you are doing a part time job to fund your education. Don’t worry. Help in Homework offers academic Essay writing services to students for a very low cost so get rid of that stress and just get in touch with us!
Great Guest Posts is very selective with our guest post partner sites and only allows the best. We will ensure to boost your site authority and SERP performance with powerful white-hat links. Paid Guest posts links are also considered 100% natural as they’re surrounded by content related to your business.
I am looking for some great blog sites to serve my ideas. I have searched the search engines on the web and found out your blog site Yes I want to outline your incredible magazine website beyond your ability to post.Female Muslim Personal Trainer
This is a great article thanks for sharing this informative information. I will visit your blog regularly for some latest post.Free Mockup
I am really loving the theme/design of your web site. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A few of my blog readers have complained about my website not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Chrome. Do you have any tips to help fix this issue. unlock youtube
Great job for publishing such a nice article. Your article isn't only useful but it is additionally really informative. Thank you SSD Cheap Web Hosting
Good work.
Thank you so much for sharing this post, I appreciate your work. It was a great informative post. Go so many useful and informative links.Loved your writings also. Concept of the topic was well discussed.Cape Verde Accommodation Hotel
Thank you so much for sharing this post, I appreciate your work. It was a great informative post. Go so many useful and informative links.Loved your writings also. Concept of the topic was well discussed.Roof Restoration Canberra
The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesn’t disappoint me as much as this particular one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read through, but I genuinely believed you’d have something useful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you can fix if you were not too busy seeking attention. group insurance
You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be really something that I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and extremely broad for me. I'm looking forward for your next post, I’ll try to get the hang of it!Cape Verde Accommodation Hotel
Exciting post and thank you for sharing. There are things here that I didn’t think some time as of late. Because of cool such a position, to the point that is to a great degree carefully taken, we will talk a huge amount of colleagues about it. witneycouriers
Ultimately, I might become remiss easily failed to contain the main aspect : value! They're at present marketing on the web for about 20% away from what you should generally pay out with a retailer. What a decent package! When you are looking for one thing inexpensive, test trying to find these about reliable cbd sites.wholesale CBD stores
Its an amazing website, I really enjoy reading your articles.
Survey My Website And Also Feedback on Status-Video.Com
I am truly inspired that there is such a great amount of data about this subject have been revealed and you've put forth a valiant effort, with so much class. On the off chance that needed to know more about green smoke surveys, than by all methods come in and check our stuff.witneycouriers
Thank you for helping people get the information they need. Great stuff as usual. Keep up the great work!Welcome to Jason's Holidays
My name is Slava, I provide the most unique focused on your needs with a luxury car for individuals and families, join me for an unforgettable experience! Whether a family trip, business travel or a Bar Mitzvah celebration, I will provide you a lifetime experience, allow me to plan your journey and take care of all the arrangements in Israel, please contact me about different activities in Israel, jeep tours, museums, attractions for kids, Bar Mitzvah ceremony and private tours.tours in israel
We provide Professional car with a driver service in Israel for business and travel , Ben Gurion airport transfers and Tours. vip service at tlvbengurion airport
cricut.com/setup is a machine used to cut paper, cardboard, vinyl, fabric, and many other kinds of materials. This is operative online and can cut the shapes of text and photos as well. Now the question is what are the steps to cut from a computer using a Cricut machine. It is very simple. Take the printout of a shape of which you want a cut out through the Cricut machine. Now put this printed sheet on the Cricut machine mat and let it load to the machine. The machine sensors will be active, sense the impression on the printed sheet, and cut it out accordingly. https://sites.google.com/view/cricutcom-setup/home
i am always looking for some free stuffs over the internet. there are also some companies which gives free samples.top cloud consulting firms
Good work friend I read some articles that you posted in your blog. I just want to admire blog and your work. Thanks for posting such posts here.
Whatsapp Status Video
Bollywood Status Video
New Status Video
No matter where you are in your life, whether you’re a parent to one kid or five, a friend to your neighbors’ kids or a teacher that spends all day with kiddos, you’re going to love this roundup of NannuSays and parenthood quotes. Hopefully they’ll help you delight in the wisdom and innocence of childhood. And once you've basked in appreciation for the little ones in your life, check out memorable mother quotes, father quotes, and even teacher quotes.
It is always good to have something with you to keep them distracted during travels. It can be something you eat or a great travel toy. I find origami as a nice way to keep your kid’s distracted. fantastic tips and ideas.private jet
Cric Gator is a well-established cricket site that attracts a global following. They have a large forum, and run many interactive features including fantasy cricket competitions, predictions competitions and have many cricket games for you to enjoy. They also have a variety of featured articles and book reviews.
Thank you because you have been willing to share information with us. we will always appreciate all you have done here because I know you are very concerned with our. roofing contractor
Thank you because you have been willing to share information with us. we will always appreciate all you have done here because I know you are very concerned with our. personalized paint by number
Hello just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your article seem to be running off the screen in Opera. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the issue resolved soon. Snuffle Bowl
Excellent goods from you, man. I have understood your stuff previous to and you are simply extremely fantastic. I actually like what you’ve obtained right here, really like what you are saying and the way in which by which you are saying it. You are making it enjoyable and you still care to stay sensible. I can’t wait to read much more from you. This is really a wonderful site.Luchthavenvervoer
We purchase houses Bronx, NY and help land owners such as yourself to beat the anxiety of selling your home.Custom Paint By Number Kits
Anyway, this idea would be great in my block area as an alternative to piling cars in baskets. Thanks for the idea!free esthetician classes online
You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be really something that I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and extremely broad for me. I'm looking forward for your next post, I’ll try to get the hang of it!Lusitania Commercial Residential Contracting
I like the helpful info you provide in your articles. I’ll bookmark your blog and check again here frequently. I’m quite sure I’ll learn plenty of new stuff right here! Good luck for the next.aesthetics machines
Hey, this day is too much good for me, since this time I am reading this enormous informative article here at my home. Thanks a lot for massive hard work.microcurrent gels
I've joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your wonderful post. Also, I've shared your site in my social networksTransfers in Israel
Great Post !! Very interesting topic will bookmark your site to check if you write more about in the future. Free Mockup
Really I enjoy your site with effective and useful information. thanks for sharing helpful information. 200+ Best Free iMac Mockups for 2022
Outstanding article! I want people to know just how good this information is in your article. Your views are much like my own concerning this subject. I will visit daily your blog because I know. It may be very beneficial for me.Eco gifts
wonderful post admin
all tech download
router login
motivational quotes in tamil
simple mehndi design
Wow.. Very informative article thanks for sharing please keep it up.. if you travel to Pakistan now , you can check how to apply for a Pakistan visa online. Within 5 to 10 minutes you can fill your e visa Pakistan form online.How to maintain weight in Ramadan
A good pet sitter will find ways to go above & beyond to give pet owners peace of mind. Pet sitting goes beyond taking a dog for a walk, cleaning a litter box or proving food & water. Its doing whatever it takes to provide the best possible care for a furry or feathered family member. read here
There’s definately a lot to find out about this issue. I really like all of the points you have made.read more here
Maldives Tour Guide is an inbound travel and tour company that specializes in coordinating travel packages across the islands. Depending on your budget, hobbies, and preferences, we offer vacations in resorts, hotels, and small island guesthouses. We are firm believers in continual process improvement in order to give the best maldives tourism services to our customers and to keep us adaptable in a dynamic environment so that we can better serve them.maldives tourism
(The Maldives is an island republic located near the equator in the Indian Ocean. A habitat for 500000 humans and 700 different species of fish. The islands are linked together in a chain. The Maldives islands are the world's most dispersed country. The country is divided into 26 zones, which are referred to as "regions" (atolls). People dwell on 200 of the 1200 islands that make up the archipelago. The local language is (dhivehi), and the currency is (Maldivian Rufiya), with a 1USD=15.42Rufiya exchange rate. )the maldives
It is my first visit to your blog, and I am very impressed with the articles that you serve. Give adequate knowledge for me. Thank You admin for published a very informative post. Great work Amazing post worth my time and i enjoyed reading it thankk you so much you. cape verde holiday
Wonderful article you always shared admin, I love to know about design and learning experiences that's way i visit your website once again.
This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. This is very nice one and gives in-depth information. Thanks for this nice article.
nice work man i can see your effort that you put into this thing great work etha unbiased news united states
great post admin thank you so much
Quotes in tamil
Great post, guys! I especially agree with your suggestion to find a good balance on how fast you travel. It can be easy it wants to see more, more, more, but traveling around so quickly makes it hard to work and just live life. You can’t go that pace for too long without burning out. Great advice — thanks for sharing!
It is good to see that you all are working hardly on your different projects and every thing you share with us which is very beneficial for us.maths
Post a Comment