D'oh-ahan
One of my strongest opinions this weekend revolved not around who would win a race but who wouldn't, as I was extremely vocal in my disdain in Dullahan being viewed as a top-ranked contender in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Of course, he showed me as an easy 1 1/4-length winner over champion Hansen with no other horses contending. In retrospect Dullahan certainly made 3.2-to-1 look like a fair price, but more frustrating to me is that I didn't see the Blue Grass as a two-horse race. No matter how many times you run today's Blue Grass, Dullahan wins at least half the time and Hansen wins the balance minus maybe 5% or 10% for the other 13 horses.
Put another way, the poorest choice I made was not underestimating Dullahan's chances but overestimating other's chances, since it's money spent on them that I wasted. I actually had tickets that included Hero of Order. Granted, those spread tickets also included Dullahan, but even if I preferred Hansen, there was value in taking a stand with only two horses (even if they were the top two choices) in a 13-horse field--especially in the multi-race wagers.
I went B-A-A-C-A in a $.50 Pick 5 that paid $3,202.65 plus consos, and it was a sequence that I would have connected had a focused on the most likely winners of the Blue Grass rather than my perceived win value.
It's Monday morning quarterbacking, of course, and there are other races where a staunch single--even on a favorite--makes sense, but I definitely feel after the fact that I should have recognized that even though I preferred Hansen there were really only two horses who could have won the Blue Grass.
If I'm going to eat crow, I might as well learn something from it, right? The dynamics of multi-race wagering definitely offer the chance to capitalize on win pool underlays who are still likely winners.
We'll revisit both Grade 1 races with the TCI boys early this week as well as take a look at the graded stakes earnings standings and my expected win odds for Derby contenders. Maybe on video this week I'll wear my Gemologist hat atop a Dullahan shirt although nothing wrong with some TwinSpires threads!
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