D'oh-ahan
One of my strongest opinions this weekend revolved not around who would win a race but who wouldn't, as I was extremely vocal in my disdain in Dullahan being viewed as a top-ranked contender in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Of course, he showed me as an easy 1 1/4-length winner over champion Hansen with no other horses contending. In retrospect Dullahan certainly made 3.2-to-1 look like a fair price, but more frustrating to me is that I didn't see the Blue Grass as a two-horse race. No matter how many times you run today's Blue Grass, Dullahan wins at least half the time and Hansen wins the balance minus maybe 5% or 10% for the other 13 horses.
Put another way, the poorest choice I made was not underestimating Dullahan's chances but overestimating other's chances, since it's money spent on them that I wasted. I actually had tickets that included Hero of Order. Granted, those spread tickets also included Dullahan, but even if I preferred Hansen, there was value in taking a stand with only two horses (even if they were the top two choices) in a 13-horse field--especially in the multi-race wagers.
I went B-A-A-C-A in a $.50 Pick 5 that paid $3,202.65 plus consos, and it was a sequence that I would have connected had a focused on the most likely winners of the Blue Grass rather than my perceived win value.
It's Monday morning quarterbacking, of course, and there are other races where a staunch single--even on a favorite--makes sense, but I definitely feel after the fact that I should have recognized that even though I preferred Hansen there were really only two horses who could have won the Blue Grass.
If I'm going to eat crow, I might as well learn something from it, right? The dynamics of multi-race wagering definitely offer the chance to capitalize on win pool underlays who are still likely winners.
We'll revisit both Grade 1 races with the TCI boys early this week as well as take a look at the graded stakes earnings standings and my expected win odds for Derby contenders. Maybe on video this week I'll wear my Gemologist hat atop a Dullahan shirt although nothing wrong with some TwinSpires threads!
1 comment:
I HAVE ONE THING TO TELL LEPARROU IN THE DERBY JUST LET THE UNION RAG RUN ON IS OWN ALL HE HAS TO DO LET RUN .SARGEOFJA HE WILL HAVE FIRST DERBY WINNER .
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