Showing posts with label Quirin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quirin. Show all posts

  • A Historic Day?

    POSTED Jun 5, 2014 By Derek Simon
    On June 7, 2014, at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY, at approximately 6:52 PM Eastern Time, California Chrome will seek to become just the 12th Triple Crown winner in thoroughbred racing history.


    Since Affirmed became the 11th keeper of the Crown — I know, it sounds like a Tolkien novel — in 1978, 11 horses have captured the first two jewels of the series (the Derby and Preakness) only to fail in the third (the Belmont Stakes). I’ll Have Another would have been the 12th success or failure, but he was scratched the day before the Belmont and never raced again.

    Will California Chrome make history and “save racing” on Saturday?

    Time (hopefully under 2:30) will tell.

    You Call 36 Years a Drought?

    Lost in all the angst over the 36-year gap since Affirmed won the American Triple Crown, is the fact that there hasn’t been an English Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970 — 44 years ago.

    In fact, since Nijinsky’s sweep of the one-mile 2,000 Guineas, the 1 ½-mile Epsom Derby and the 1 ¾-mile (approximately) St. Leger Stakes, only three horses — Camelot (2012), Sea the Stars (2009) and Nashwan (1989) — have even had a shot at the coveted English Triple.

    What’s more, Nijinsky was the first English Triple Crown winner since the Aga Khan’s Bahram in 1935. So, by English standards, capturing the American Triple Crown is like earning a participation ribbon at a grade school field day. Since 1935, there have been nine American Triple Crown champs.

    Who said winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont was tough?



    The ‘Universal Bias’ Strikes Again

    In “Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping,” William L. Quirin, called early speed the “universal track bias” and, despite the 1 ½-mile distance and the vast expanse that is Belmont Park, statistics show that Quirin’s observation holds true for the Belmont Stakes as well.

    Since 2000, the average Belmont winner has been just 1.91 lengths back at the first (1/2-mile) call and 1.36 lengths in arrears at the second (10-furlong) call.

    Furthermore, Belmont winners have entered the Test of Champions with an average overall early speed ration (ESR) of -3. In fact, 9 of the past 14 Belmont champions have met that standard and they have produced an ROI of 258 percent to win, 60 percent to place and 10 percent to show.

    This year, just two horses qualify:

    * California Chrome (-4)
    * Samraat (-3)

    The Dope on Dosage

    With all the talk about California Chrome’s lack of distance breeding, I thought I would consult with an expert.

    Dr. Steven Roman runs the excellent Chef-de-Race Web site and is the creator of the Dosage Index (DI) so often referenced at this time of year.

    Although no horse with a DI greater than 3.00 has won the Belmont since Empire Maker (3.16) in 2003, Dr. Roman believes that horses like California Chrome, who has a 3.40 Dosage Index, have become the norm rather than the exception.

    “It is interesting to note that in this year's Derby and Preakness, California Chrome's DI falls essentially right on the respective trend lines,” Roman said. “In other words, in terms of Dosage, he is almost ideally representative of contemporary North American classic breeding.”

    “The patterns over time for all three Triple Crown events are similar, with the Dosage figures of the winners steadily increasing over time since 1940, reflecting the continuous shift toward speed in North American breeding,” Dr. Roman explained.

    “I doubt if there is a single horse these days bred specifically for the Belmont distance (at least on dirt). The result is that suitability to the distance is more an accident than intentional. Someday, a dozen sprinters may line up in the Belmont starting gate and one of them will have to win — not a pretty picture,” he concluded.

     

    Graphic courtesy of Dr. Steven Roman

  • Too fast for a speed duel

    POSTED Sep 20, 2013 By Unknown
    When handicappers note that "there is a lot of speed in this race" what they most typically mean is that there are a lot of front-running types--that is a horse who likes to race on or near the front end.

     It is folly to think that a race loaded with front runners can't be won by a front runner. It's only an issue if those dynamics make logical contenders go faster than is prudent.

     The Gallant Bob Stakes on Saturday at Parx is a race that certainly has "a lot of speed" in it.

    Using the race summary that is a part of Brisnet.com's Ultimate Past Performances, we see that the Gallant Bob has five "E" types from 13 entrants, and eight sophomores with at least 5 Quirin Speed Points.

     As the image below illustrates, though, this is by no means a bad thing, as six-furlong races at Parx are won by "E" types 38% of the time and E/P types 36% of the time. All of eight entrants with at least 5 Quirin Speed Points are either an "E" or "E/P" type.

    So how fast can these horses go? The short answer to that is as fast as #2 Distinctiv Passion can go. Shipping from California and going turf to dirt for the Gallant Bob, Distinctiv Passion has been on the lead at the first and second call in each of his last seven races. In fact, the only time he hasn't made the lead was in his career debut--a maiden race won by eventual King's Bishop Stakes winner Capo Bastone.

    Black Hornet looks to be the only horse capable of going as fast as Distinctiv Passion early, and in fact has a higher last race pace figure than Distinctiv Passion. However, neither of those horses earned their numbers on dirt last time out, and Black Hornet has never raced on a fast surface.


    The only speed horse I think is capable of winning the Gallant Bob is Distinctiv Passion. He can lead them gate to wire, but no other horse is capable of doing so. If a horse tries to out run Distinctiv Passion early, he's unlikely to win that battle let alone the war, and if a speed horse takes back too much, then he's probably too far out of his element and vulnerable to a faster closer anyway.

    Clearly Now is the clear alternative if looking away from the speed, but I worry about taking a shorter price on him than Distinctiv Passion when A) Distinctiv Passion is faster, and B) Clearly Now is 122-pound highweight (Distinctiv Passion carries 115).

    Zeewat is the only other horse I could see using because I'd rather have a closer if trying to beat Distinctiv Passion than speed type.

    Wagering strategy: WPS on #2 Distinctiv Passion at odds of 5-to-1. If we don't get that price, I might go shopping in the place and show pools because combining 13 horses with Parx's big day could mean more of an even distribution than is warranted. I'd definitely play Clearly Now to show if he had less than 15% of that pool and Zeewat with less than 10%.

    I'd never play multiple horses to show or couple with across wager, so these are listed in my order of preference: Distinctiv Passion across at 5-to-1 or better, Clearly Now to show if less than 15% of the pool, or Zeewat to show if less than 10% of the pool.

    The Gallant Bob kicks off a Pick 3 that ends with a pair of $1-million races: The Cotillion and the Pennsylvania Derby. Close Hatches and Sweet Lulu are all you need in the Cotillion, and I think you can beat the Travers top two in the PA Derby, so if you go deep there and catch a price this could pay OK.

    For more on those two races (which also conclude an all-stakes Pick 4), check out the Triple Crown Insider video below

  • How to Determine the Pace of Today's Race

    POSTED Feb 28, 2013 By Derek Simon
    One of the toughest tasks that handicappers face today, especially in light of all the turf and synthetic races carded on a daily basis, is estimating what the pace of a race is likely to be. Will the frontrunners rush to the front in an all-out sprint for early supremacy or hold back like kids in line for a flu shot?

    In last Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes, the former approach was on display, as Majestic Hussar rocketed to the front and recorded a -13 early speed ration, carving out an opening half-mile in 45-2/5 seconds.

    Of course, after the race, when it was discovered that the 3-5 favorite Violence had fractured his right front medial sesamoid and is no longer on the Kentucky Derby trail, many theorized that the swift Fountain of Youth pace contributed to his demise.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Yet, it is my contention that the -13 Fountain of Youth ESR was not only a non-surprise, it was predictable. In fact, I’m going to show you an easy and reasonably accurate (hey, you can’t expect easy and infallible, can you?) method for determining the probable pace of a race.

    Now, as you probably guessed, I’m going to use my proprietary speed rations to do it… but don’t be discouraged by that fact. I am only using my numbers to draw measurable conclusions. From a handicapping standpoint, the important thing is discerning whether the pace figures to be fast, normal or slow — which is something my ESRs can readily tell us.

    In fact, the crux of this method lies in a different set of digits altogether — the Quirin speed points found in Brisnet’s Ultimate and Premium Plus past performances or detailed by the man himself in “Winning At the Races.” The concept is simple: Just total up all the Quirin speed points in a given race and divide by the number of horses that earned them (first-time starters or horses with zero points should be ignored). Then use the equations derived from my database studies (below) to forecast today’s ESR. Because the ESRs are relative, i.e. they are not speed figures, one can instantly get a grasp of how the race is likely to be run once they have been obtained.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Let’s go back to last weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes and put this simple pace method to the test.

    Eight horses (Joshua’s Compromise wasn’t considered — see above) combined to earn 42 Quirin speed points, good for a race rating of 5.3 (42/8= 5.3).

    The ESR equation for dirt routes is as follows:

    ESR(y)= -0.5877 * 5.3(x) – 7.0519, or -10.

    A -10 ESR, as noted above, constitutes a “brisk” pace. Yeah, in real life, the Fountain of Youth pace turned out to be a little faster than that (almost “demanding”), but we’re in the ballpark. And that’s all this method is attempting to do — give us a general idea as to how fast, relatively speaking, the pace will be.

    With this knowledge, we might have concluded that horses able to rate off the early fractions — horses like Orb, Joshua’s Compromise, Violence and, to a lesser degree, He’s Had Enough and Sr. Quisqueyano — would have an advantage in Saturday’s Gulfstream Park feature.

    And we’d have been right.

    Orb rallied from eight lengths off the pace to catch a leg-weary Violence in the final strides, while Speak Logistics, a frontrunner that has been attempting to rate in recent races, rallied to finish third.

    Try this method on other races and see what you think. Hopefully, it will help you more accurately assess the pace picture of the races you bet on, which should help your ROI… and your peace of mind.

    FREE Weekend Win Factor Reports

    Coming soon.

  • BC Battle Tested

    POSTED Oct 19, 2012 By Derek Simon
    One hears it constantly — like the word “dude” at a skate park:

    “That horse won easy last time,” a bettor will say. “It’s going to be doubly tough today.”

    Indeed. This notion that a dominant victory is a positive sign has a basis in fact (rare for a racetrack “truism”). Dr. William L. Quirin wrote about the impact of big wins in “Winning At The Races” back in 1979, when Seattle still had an NBA team and I watched it win the city’s one — and only — professional sports title. Where art thou “Downtown” Freddy Brown?

    But I digress.

    “Of particular significance, as far as impact values are concerned, is the margin of victory,” Quirin wrote. “Horses that won by three lengths or more were more successful in their next start than [last-race winners] as a whole.”

    Makes sense, right? I mean, if a horse was able to soundly defeat its foes last time, it stands to reason that the animal stands a decent shot to do it again today. Conversely, it would seem logical to conclude that the opposite is also true: if a horse wins narrowly, say by less than a length, it is a poor betting proposition next time out.

    Again, there is some statistical evidence to suggest that this is, in fact, the case. Here’s the problem, though, and it illustrates why a blanket approach to racing and racing statistics is doomed to failure: Missing in this “big win” equation is the class element.

    While it’s true that a horse that won its last race by three lengths or more is victorious more often next time than those that did not, when one dissects the statistics one discovers that the vast majority of those follow-up wins occur at the same class level or lower. When the horse is rising in class, the ROI is virtually identical (at least in the testing I did).

    Of course, this suggests that big winners are all too obvious to the betting public, which got me thinking: Given the less wagering-centric crowd that the Breeders’ Cup typically attracts, might one be able to exploit this fact at the windows? In other words, would one do better by taking a contrarian view of last-race winners and upgrading narrow victors, while downgrading those that won by large margins?

    If history is any guide, the answer appears to be “yes.” Since 2003, horses that won their last start by three lengths or more have accumulated the following stats:

    Races (horses): 72 (143)
    Winners (rate): 17 (23.6%)
    Return (ROI): $165.30 (-42.20%)

    Now take a peek at horses that won their final BC prep by less than a length:

    Races (horses): 85 (177)
    Winners (rate): 22 (25.9%)
    Return (ROI): $502.60 (+41.98%)

    Notice that although the race win percentage is about the same, there is a massive difference in ROI — making the point that Quirin’s easy winners are overbet.

     So, with that in mind, here are some (potential) horses to watch this year:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    For more data like this, be sure to check out my 2012 Breeders' Cup Betting Guide. In addition to all kinds of unique stats and insightful articles, the Guide also contains past performances — with my pace figures and Win Factor Report fair odds — for all the likely BC entrants.

    Frankel’s Swan Song

    By all accounts, Frankel’s race in the Champion Stakes at Ascot Racecourse on Saturday will be the final one of his brilliant career. To many, the horse named after reality TV star Bethenny Frankel — or was it Bethenny’s dad, the legendary trainer Bobby Frankel? — is the greatest thoroughbred of all time.

    “We could be looking at the best horse that ever lived,” said Nick Godfrey of the Racing Post. “I’ve never seen a horse do what he did.”

    Still, the Champion could be Frankel’s sternest test yet, as he faces the battle hardened Cirrus Des Aigles, who won the event last year. Even though he’s now six years old, Cirrus Des Aigle has been very impressive this year and his trainer, Corine Barande-Barbe, believes he may still be improving.

    “Every race he has run in, he always seems to take one step up and he always seems to look his best when he tries something new,” she said. “Last year he wasn't even a Group One winner before the Champion Stakes. He won and he showed that the better the field, the better he is.

    “Maybe he's still improving,” Barande-Barbe continued. “On Saturday, it could be the best in the world over a mile to middle distances against the best over 10 furlongs to a mile and a half.

     “Whatever happens, it will be a great experience and we will enjoy it,” the veteran conditioner concluded. “If he wins, I will be pleased, but I won't be surprised… I'm not scared of Frankel.”

    Nor am I. Given the odds, I think “Cirrus” might be a reasonable alternative to the favorite, who is sure to have additional money rained down upon him due to the fact that the Champion is his final race.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    10/20/12 Belmont Park
    10/20/12 Charles Town
    10/20/12 Hawthorne
    10/20/12 Keeneland
    10/20/12 Santa Anita Park

  • Winning with Style

    POSTED Aug 9, 2012 By Derek Simon
    When Hansen went down in flames as the 3-5 favorite last weekend, many people — including a few “insiders” — were quick to point to the colt’s early duel with Hero On Order as the primary reason for his defeat.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Personally, I think that’s a load of malarkey — although Hansen was very headstrong (he often is), the fractions of the West Virginia Derby were far from taxing. Still, Hansen’s blue-tail beatdown does highlight why handicappers should carefully assess the pace scenario of the races they choose to play.

    In “Winning at the Races,” first published in 1979, author William Quirin attempted to help players do just that via his “speed point” method, which was designed to ferret out the likely frontrunners, pressers and closers in each race.

    Quirin assigned 0-8 points to every entrant — eight points to confirmed early runners; zero points to horses that showed absolutely no early lick in their most recent outings. Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) later adapted Quirin’s work and added a style designation to their Premium Plus and Ultimate past performances.

    Borrowed from Tom Brohamer and the Sartin Methodology, the “ESP running styles” are defined as follows:
    E (early) – Need-the-lead type that does its best running on the engine.
    E/P (early presser) – Horse that prefers running on the lead or 1-3 lengths behind the leader.
    P (presser) – Horse that races in the middle of the pack, 4-7 lengths behind the leader.
    S (sustainer) – An animal that generally stays well back early and makes one late, prolonged late run.
    After the West Virginia Derby, I began to wonder whether these great, but oft-overlooked, tools might be used to identify pace scenarios, as well as the horses most likely to benefit from them. Specifically, I wanted to isolate lone-speed races and races that figured to produce sizzling splits and/or a potential battle for the early lead.

    Toward that end, I began my research by looking strictly at horses that earned the maximum Quirin score (eight points). Here’s how they performed (using my database of over 2,000 races from tracks across the country):

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Nothing real noteworthy. In both sprints (races under a mile) and routes (races of a mile or greater), the eight-point horses performed better than expected, although, somewhat surprisingly, many of the route types were overbet (witness the negative odds-based impact value, or OBIV).

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    With these baseline statistics in mind, I then examined horses that had a clear point advantage, i.e. lone-speed races:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    * Does not include races with no other rated entrants.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Interestingly, these results — at least the results in sprints — somewhat mirror those obtained by Quirin 33 years ago, as we find that betting on eight-point speed horses in races featuring no other such animals actually produces a profit.

    Given these encouraging early returns, I was curious to see whether or not a contested pace might lead to the opposite phenomenon — more wins by closers (horses with an “S” ESP style rating).

    Of course, first, we need to find out how the “S” horses performed overall:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Clearly, these are not steeds one would want to bet on a regular basis, as the IV and OBIV — in both sprints and routes — attest to.

    But look at what happens when one looks solely at races featuring exactly two animals with 7-8 Quirin points apiece:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Not only do the numbers drastically improve, they turn positive in the win pool in sprints, and are also positive in the place and show pools in routes.

    I guess all those snooty fashion designers are right: style really does matter.