Showing posts with label eliminations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eliminations. Show all posts

  • The Breeders Crown Overture

    POSTED Oct 17, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    For the next two weeks this TwinSpires blog and the exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog will work in tandem to address the eliminations and finals of the classic series involving all divisions of the standardbred racing world.

    It begins with complete coverage of all the Breeders Crown elims, two nights of races on Oct. 19 and Oct. 20, a week before the finals (all on the same evening) at Woodbine.

    There won’t be eliminations for all 12 divisions. On Friday, Oct. 19, three freshman divisions will present elim races. On Saturday, Oct. 20, three sophomore divisions plus the Open Mare Trot hold preliminary races.

    The race divisions going directly to finals are the frosh-filly trot, the soph-filly trot, the Mare Pace and the Open Trot. Horses getting a bye, which means they can skip any preliminary event and go directly into the field of the final, will be mentioned inside the text analyzing those races.
     
    This blog will present Friday eliminations and the “Countdown” blog will present Saturday’s races. Next week we will split the finals with analysis’s of six for each blog.

    Shuffle your attention to catch all of the coverage, available exclusively at TwinSpires in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society.

    Freshmen Frolic

     
    We begin with the first of a pair of two-year-old colt pace elims on the Friday program. There have rarely been, in any divisions, as worthy a 1-5 morning-line shot than is Captaintreacherous. Perhaps his sire, Somebeachsomewhere qualifies, but outside the family, so to speak, what is there to do with this race that has not surfaced in the other eight races of this colt’s career?

    There are only seven horses here, two of which have never met “Captain.” One of them, Up And Out, appears to be no threat by means of speed or class. The other, Twilight Bonfire, may have more speed than he has shown in 10 races but he has only won a pair of them and has beaten others that do not seem to stand as tall as Captain.

    So you pass or you watch in wonder or you see an upset that is unpredictable because for it to happens would involve bizarre circumstances that have no place in any scenario one should use handicapping a harness race. Perhaps the two others mentioned could add to a decent priced trifecta if criss-crossed behind Captain.

    The second frosh-colt elim is where to look for value. The outside contender here is Good Day Mate. He may be the fourth choice in this group but cannot be overlooked per his recent trips, a pair of excused journeys and both against Captaintreacherous.

    He was second to Captain at 5-1 two back at The Red Mile, while his second venture there found him fourth against Captain while taking the overland route. He shapes up against the obvious top three (the 4, 5 and 7) and will not get the kind of action he received in the pair of failures. In one of those, he beat Apprentice Hanover, the morning-line favorite here.

    The single elim for frosh-colt trotters (Don’t You Forget It and Major Athens have byes) sets up to be a tempest between some heavy young hitters. One of them, Wheeling N Dealin, is yet to lose in his career, bringing a streak of seven wins to this mile. He must deal with Fashion Blizzard for the first time and these two face the danger of canceling each other out, leaving an outsider in a great spot to upset.

    That colt is one that failed us in the past two weeks but has every right to be the tortoise to those two hares in this situation. He is Caveat Emptor, a son of Deweycheatumnhowe that suffered enough trouble to make every event where he has appeared since he won on Aug. 19 suspect of his losses.

    What a price this colt will offer having a legitimate chance to strike down the streak by Wheeling N Dealin and leave “Blizzard” for an exotic-ticket position. Beware of this colt, he could even wire this field if he improves and stays out of trouble and, of course, if he doesn’t jump. But at the price he will be worth the shot.

    The single filly pace mile has 10 of the 13 to go in the final. A trio received byes included top divisional filly I Luv The Nitelife, Parlee Beach and UF Dragon’s Queen. The 10 left are a tightly knitted field of competitors making this event rife for an upset.

    It’s difficult to tell as of this writing but if Love Canal lives up to her morning-line odds or is at least the second choice to L Dees Lioness or tied with Nikki Beach, she would be an overlay worth supporting.

    A bigger surprise could come with the performance of Power Pack Hanover. She is two for two and could be getting better by the step. She certainly will be worth a chance to win, as the crowd will most likely dismiss her. We would rather speculate on her improvement with a wager, as the Somebeachsomewhere filly could be awaiting a monstrous sophomore season and be able to send up a flare with this elim and next week’s final.

    For Saturday’s Crown action at Woodbine, click here.
      

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Oct 14, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Since the bulk of the stakes horses from all 12 divisions were either thinking about or traveling to Canada to ready for the Breeders Crown elims, we were treading water with a few plays around the country.

    From the slim list we picked up a single winner, Boytown (pictured left), at The Meadows, paying $9.

    Michael’s Power was no lock in the Ontario Sires Stakes Final at Flamboro; he finished second, as Mel Mara beat him by a nose. So much for keying exotic combos. However, owner Jeff Snyder has put up the $62,500 fee to supplement the colt to the Breeders Crown (for more information, see news section below).
     
    Our Indiana Sires Stakes choices each finished fifth, none were favored. Of The Meadows’ nine choices with which we failed, Erin Kristen was second at 10-1, Anotherbugga was third at 3-1, while five were off the board and two broke with no chance of getting into the race, one of them, Albany House was the race favorite.

    Our exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog continues as we head for the eliminations next week. We will be reporting live on the nights of the elims—Friday and Saturday, Oct. 19 and Oct. 20 and finals, Oct. 27. Follow us for the top wagering value contenders.

    Review all of the season’s great harness action at the archives we produce at Hambletonian Society’s page.

    News And Notes

    Michael’s Power’s owner Jeff Snyder has been no stranger to owning top colts. He owned Cam’s Card Shark, Million Dollar Cam and other big earners. But this is the first time he is shelling out money to supplement a horse to the Breeders Crown. He told Harness Racing Update that there are a few good reasons why he will do it this time.

    “Number one, the horse deserves a shot,” Snyder said. “Number two, he is sound and fresh, despite the long season …Number three, we intend to race Michael’s Power next year, so if we supplement now, he will be eligible for all future Breeders Crowns. Number four, if all goes well, we think he has a shot to win.”

    Check out the Breeders Crown Countdown blog for some other reasons Snyder is ready for his colt to take on the soph-colt pacing division: What’s left of them.

    He’s back. Commander Crowe (pictured right), now nine, comes to Woodbine again for the Breeders Crown from across the ocean to take on the top older trotting horses, except last year’s winner, San Pail. Owner Calle Wihlborg is ready to avenge the loss and try again to step onto the world stage via this side of the pond.

    Commander Crowe was 16-1 last year and not on the list of top performers in Europe. His owner, however, believes the gelding can become one of the best trotters in the world.

    Commander Crowe returns to Woodbine with a 2012 aiming to prove Calle correct. He won nine of 12 starts, earning $1.6 million, including the Elitlopp in Sweden, the Oslo Grand Prix in Norway, the Olympic Trot in Sweden and the Copenhagen Cup in Denmark.  “Crowe” is now considered the best trotter in Europe.

    “To be able to come back and win this race would be huge,” Calle said. “But to be considered the best in the world we have to beat American horses also.”

    E.L. James, the author of the enormously popular “Fifty Shades of Grey” books, became a standardbred owner. As would be appropriate, Ms. James’ first horse is grey, though which shade is debatable. It’s name is Fiftyshadesofgrey. The next two horses James and her partners bought for the group, to be trained by George Baker, will be named for the other books in the series: Fiftyshades Darker and Fiftyshades Freed.

    Fool Me Once, the frosh-colt pacer that won twice at The Red Mile recently, marking his first races outside of his home country, has trainer Mark Austin raring to go to Woodbine for the Breeders Crown. Fool Me Once won four of eight starts this season and earned $125,983.

    “He raced tough both weeks,” Austin said. “Front-end speed usually doesn’t hold up [at The Red Mile] but both weeks he fought tough through the lane and gave a good account of himself. He can race from off the pace, too.”

    Austin admits the colt will be taking on the toughest competition of his young career in the “Crown.”

    “He drew a couple [of easy] divisions at The Red Mile. It helps when you draw away from Captaintreacherous and Odds On Equuleus [the latter not eligible to the Crown].”

    Northfield Park has changed its post times on Mondays and Tuesday. Racing will now begin at 6:30 p.m. Monday and Tuesdays continue to offer a $10,000 guaranteed Pick-4 pool, which starts at Race 8. Friday and Saturday night racing continues with a regular post time of 7:00 p.m.

    Bee A Magician is expected to be at Woodbine for the Oct. 19 Crown eliminations for frosh-trotting fillies. She has been sharp and among the winners this blog has broadcasted. A daughter of Kadabra, whose progeny we have touted here successfully going back to Poof She’s Gone a few years back, she has nine wins in 11 starts, including a victory over the division’s top star, Jimmy Takter’s To Dream On.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances. Every weekend as part of that blog we we offer Balmoral Pick-4-and-win picks at the USTA’s Strategic Wagering Program page which includes suggested win bets. 

    Connect to Twitter and follow Frank and Ray Cotolo for up-to-the-minute suggestions on wagers at many harness raceways and for live coverage of the Breeders Crown elims and finals. Then, wager from your TwinSpires accounts.
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    Cartoon by Thom Pye