Showing posts with label free spot plays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free spot plays. Show all posts
  • Signs Of The Season

    POSTED Feb 19, 2014


    Hopes across North America are similar—that the winter thaw is closer than spring, which begins in 30 days as of this writing. If hopes develop into meteorological realities, harness racing features are just around the calendar’s corner.

    Meanwhile, we have been thriving regardless of the frigid foes, with enough harness racing across the continent to keep our TwinSpires accounts locked and loaded. With the cancellation of the first feature series, the Presidential at the Meadowlands, we continue to focus on the most competitive overnight races at many tracks.

    One of our features, however, is the $25,000 Miss Valentine Final from Fraser, featuring British Columbia-bred four-year-old mare pacers, arguably the best in the provice.

    Again this week we analyze specific overnight events with great profit-producing probabilities and we swing at similar common events with less explanation in our highly successful horses-to-watch (H2W) list. Wins, places, shows and exactas abound. We have added harness racing’s newest track, Miama Valley, in Ohio. Please note that horses from our featured overnight events the week before appear on the H2W list as second-time members if they did not win when we highlighted their previous race.

    This week’s overnight offerings:

    Fraser
    Feb. 21, Race 6

    While Stonebridge Lyric tries for his third straight and an entry of Keith Clark pacers return from scrathes, Red Star Tyson sits cold and perhaps able to allow the aforementioned to beat themselves and finally get a winning trip. “Red” draws the inside and has shown his speed at this level two back, though he was hampered by an early duel. Here he can find a ground-saving spot and use a single brush to wreak some havoc as the undisputed outside contender.

    Fraser
    Feb. 21, Race 

    Keep The Dream is the morning-line (ML) choice of mares in the Miss Valentine Final, armed with top Canadian breeding (Mach Three) and local favorite trainer-driver Bill Davis. But does she deserve the status, coming off of two Open losses and unable to topple Call Me Up in this and better company? There is no doubt a challenge will be presented from Yanotherhos, who, in contrast to Call Me Up, has done near as well as Keep The Dream. Her race coming into this affair is a very sharp show finish at an under-rated 11-1; she dueled to the lead before getting caught late by two tough gals. As a key she will work in exactas with the top choice and a trifecta could explode by adding Nazko Tribute, who can be forgiven for last week’s failure and be as hot as she raced the pair before that—at quite a price.


    Dover
    Feb. 23, Race 2

    Occasionally Bad can be a spoiler in this group, meeting each of these foes for the first time. The elder Badlands Hanover mare has finished well in two of her last three and will be dismissed by the crowd for the obvious trio with shorter MLs. One of them, RD Elegant Yankee, may also be an overlay here and stands a chance of robbing the pace from Shaving Mug, the one that may be bet to smithereens.

    Dover
    Feb. 23, Race 3

    JR’s Midnight Cry screams for support after a bum trip from post 8. His Feb. 9 mile was strong and challenging as he finished second while wide for two calls. Just before the year turned over, the pacer was strong at this level and being bet far more than we expect the crowd to support him here. Certainly Suits from the inside is going to be hammered in the win pool but the sophomore may be facing too much experience to be trusted at low odds, while the other ML choice, Steady Pulse, has excuses but remains vulnerable enough to go against.


    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Buffalo
    2/21/14, RA Shakenbake R4
    2/22/14, +Sand Savage R5; +Windy City Ron R10


    Cal Expo
    2/21/14, Rare Beauty R4
    2/22/14, +Stiletosilverheels R1; Poorlittlerichgirl R5; +Curvacious R7; Itsabouttonight R7; Only In Lodi R8; +KD Nicol R8; My Roberto R10; Indescribable R13 

    Dover
    2/20/14, +Big Valley R1
    2/23/14, +Rock My Life R1

    Flamboro
    2/20/14, +Nothing But Trouble R6;
    2/23/14, +Designer R7; +Spartacus Jim R8

    Fraser
    2/21/14, Real Vintage R1; Rollin Deep R2; Terra True R4; Jack Junior R10; Last Luck R12

    Freehold
    2/20/14, +Our Girls Chance N R4; +Mr Salming R7, All On My Own R10; Look Siera R11
    2/21/14, +Ringside Winner R8; +Princess Mcardle N R11

    Meadows
    2/21/14, +Eddie Sweat R1; +TT Tucker R9; Screen Saver R15

    Miami Valley
    2/20/14, Juntique R3; Pink E Bank R3; Luna Hanover R3; B Quite Marvelous R5; Dora Des Rivieres R7; That’s My Girl R10; Late For Work R11
    2/21/14, B Good Lexi R1 
    2/22/14, Woop D Do Bazzle R1; Bad Angel R3
    |
    Pompano
    2/22/14; Market Force R6

    Yonkers
    2/21/14; +All Star Dragon R1; +Ideal In Vegas R6; +Handsoffmycookie—AE—R10; Cash Poor R11
    2/22/14; Safe Harbor R4

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.      
  • Pay Heed to Speed

    POSTED Nov 16, 2013
    Earlier this week, my colleague Ed DeRosa, noted that, like the death of Samuel L. Clemens, the demise of speed figures as a meaningful handicapping factor has been “greatly exaggerated.”

    Ed pointed out that, during the Keeneland meet in 2013, six of 11 non-maiden main-track sprints were captured by horses that had the highest last-out Brisnet speed figure by at least seven points.

    “Yes, that's a small sample, but opening it up to my whole database shows 228 main track (dirt or synthetic) non-maiden sprints in which there was at least a 7-point … advantage with 40 percent winners and a +2 percent ROI,” DeRosa wrote.

    Of course, anytime I see the words “stats” and “database” my reaction is akin to one of Pavlov’s dogs — I’m so anxious to do my own testing, I practically salivate at the thought of it.

    So, with drool dripping from my chin (isn’t that a nice image?), I delved into my database of more than 12,000 races to see what other interesting facts I could dig up on Brisnet speed figures. Of course, before I did that, I first checked to see if Ed’s findings held up on a bigger sample.

    Sadly, they did not.

    * Non-maiden races on a dirt or synthetic surface.
    * Top last-race Brisnet speed figure by seven points or more.
    * Sprints (races less than a mile) only.

    Number: 920
    Winners (rate): 355 (38.6%)
    Return: $1,652.50
    ROI: -10.19%

    But hang not your head Tom Dooley, all is not lost. If we insist that the horse finished in the money (third or better) last time, the picture improves dramatically:

    Number: 720
    Winners (rate): 295 (41.0%)
    Return: $1,365.90
    ROI: -5.15%

    I know, I know — better, yes, but still not profitable. Well, check out the results when we heed the advice of the “bounce” advocates and require that the horse’s most recent speed figure not represent a recent top. Horses that met all the criteria above and recorded a higher Brisnet speed rating in at least one of their previous nine outings produced the following numbers:

    Number: 195
    Winners (rate): 91 (46.7%)
    Return: $411.60
    ROI: +5.54%

    Now, I know from painful experience that back-testing like this can lead to misleading results and I’ll be the first to admit that I have little confidence that the positive ROI obtained above will hold.

    But that’s not really the point.

    The point is that speed is still a potent handicapping factor when viewed in the proper light. No, it is not the be-all and end-all that many believed it to be after reading about Andy Beyer’s exploits 30 years ago, but it’s not totally worthless — as some believe — either.

    By the way, I looked for qualifying plays (above) on Saturday, Nov. 16, and found one:

    TUP5: 7-Mon Couer (7/5 morning line odds).

    FREE Spot Plays

    A couple of months ago, on my Web site SimonSpeedRations.com, I offered my personal spot plays to those who purchased a one-month Win Factor Report or Pace Profile Report subscription.

    From Sept. 16-30, there were 56 qualifying plays — an average of four per day — and they produced 23 winners (41.1 percent) and a positive net return of $2.44, or 21.96 percent, per $2 bet. (Click HERE to see a summary of all the September selections.)

    Well, I've decided to do it again — and this time it's even better.

    Starting today (Saturday, Nov. 16), I will be offering my spot plays to ANYONE who buys one or more of my report packages. This includes both the daily packages.

    Visit the Products page at SimonSpeedRations.com to get your reports and free spot plays today!