• The Truth About Progression Betting

    POSTED Jul 11, 2014 By Derek Simon
    Before the more scholarly handicapping authors like Tom Ainslie, Andrew Beyer and Steve Davidowitz came along in the 1970s and 1980s, most racing literature featured two prevailing qualities:

    1) It was poorly written.
    2) It was gobbledygook, often espousing theories only slightly crazier than those proffered by the Flat Earth Society.

    Take, for example, a recent gem I came across entitled “Picking the Winners with Systology.” Published in 1933, “Picking Winners with Systology” is a compilation of selection and betting methods that, according to the (wisely) unnamed author or authors, “fills and completes the cycle of information which has long been a pressing want of turf players.”

    “Using any one of the eight workable and tested systems contained herein, players may be sure that only misfortune and the failure of horseflesh and blood to do that which could be confidently expected and figured, will result in a loss,” the book claims.

    So, in other words, if you lose, blame the horse.

    Still, although “Picking Winners with Systology” is rife with crazy notions that the more sophisticated players of today could easily spot — how about a parallel speed chart that equates five furlongs in 56 seconds with six furlongs in 1:09? — the book also contains some ideas that aren’t as easily dismissed (although they should be).

    I fear that far too many bettors still believe that progression methods actually work… because, theoretically, they do.

    For instance, the Quadru Methods detailed in “Picking Winners with Systology” combine several fairly simple and straightforward selection approaches — none of which are profitable, by the way — with a well-known progression betting system.

    “Play is based upon the sum necessary to recoup losses and show profits. If the choices in three races have lost, the sum lost, plus profits sought, are added together and the player wagers enough to bring back that total. Thus, if the player had lost $12 on three previous races and wishes to show a profit of $10, he would wager $6, presuming that his choice in the fourth race was quoted at odds of 4 to 1,” the book notes.

    On the subject of odds, the player is warned that he “should never back a horse at less than even money.” (Presumably, this is to keep the amount wagered in check.)

    So, with all this in mind, I decided to run a simple test.

    Using my database of more than 14,000 races run during 2012-13, I first looked at the stats on sole favorites (no entries or ties) that went to post at even odds or greater. I chose race favorites for my test for two reasons: 1) They win more often than most — if not all — one-factor methods on the planet, thereby providing the consistency that progression betting systems need; and 2) They produce an ROI similar to, if not in excess of, what the methods outlined in the book can achieve.

    SOLE FAVORITES AT EVEN ODDS OR GREATER

    Number: 10,451
    Winners: 3,303
    Win Rate: 31.6%
    $2 Net Return: $1.66
    ROI: -17.01%

    Now comes the fun part: Using the same horses listed above, I sought to make a profit of $10 per race. If I lost, the $10 was added to the amount wagered, along with another $10 in desired profits. All bets were rounded down to the nearest dollar and, of course, the $2 minimum bet was always observed.

    The overall results were, well, fantastic. As I mentioned previously, in theory, progression betting works. After 10,451 bets, profits stood at $99,808.70 — a sizable chunk of change.

    However, before you rush to cash out your 401(k) and start betting progressively on favorites, take a stab at what the maximum wager amount in this sequence of 10,451 bets was?

    If you guessed $403,080, give yourself a gold star and move to the head of the class.

    And it gets worse.

    After accumulating a little over $39K in profits in 4,265 races, the wheels came off, as 23 straight losses led to a capital deficit of — are you sitting down? — $726,242.65. Add that to the subsequent $403,080 bet to recoup profit and losses and it becomes apparent (at least to those with a calculator) that one would have needed a bankroll in excess of $1.1 million to proceed with this progression.

    What’s more, my test doesn’t even begin to address what a $403K bet would do to the pools at most racetracks in the country. In fact, in a comical twist, the horse that broke the 23-race skid in my test was Gin Shot and he won the 7th race at Mt. Pleasant Meadows, a track that no longer exists.

    There was $456 in the win, place and show pools combined.

    So, the next time you read about a progression betting system guaranteed to show profits, go search for Bigfoot or the Loch Ness monster instead. It’ll be about as fruitful — not to mention a whole lot less expensive.

  • Meadowlands Pace Leads Stakes Parade

    POSTED Jul 9, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    Since its inception as the first $1-million harness racing event (created by the late, great Joe DeFrank), the Meadowlands Pace has been a defining event for the pacing glamour-boy division. By mid-July, one colt is usually in charge of the major miles, one colt is considered a threat to the rest. This year is no different. Denied by many until a 12-1 win in the $1-million North America Cup, JK Endofanera is the one to beat. He won his “Pace” elim and has room in his earnings bag for the greater percentage of the cash from this purse ($700,000-plus). In this blog we explore what we can do to use him or abuse him for wagers.

    As well, the Meadowlands hosts a giant July 12 program, including stakes for older pacers, older mare trotters and pacers, frosh fillies and colts, soph-filly pacers and filly-and-colt trotters on the Hambletonian Trail. We cover, as usual, the Del Miller and Stanley Dancer events for the soph trotters marching toward August in our sister blog. Get over there after you peruse this scroll of betting wisdom.

    Two Maple Leaf Trot elims are the center of Friday, July 11’s Mohawk program, where the older trotting ranks battle for the berths of the top stakes final next week.

    Weekdays, check out the TwinSpires-Hoosier perks for players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    Follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get any and all late-breaking information on racing events and betting challenges that transpire between the publications of the two TwinSpires harness racing blogs.

    Pacemasters

    The $776,000 Meadowlands Pace brings together a now familiar group of glamour-boy pacers, including the leader of this pack, JK Endofanera. Undeniably the favorite here, the stylized and dual-tactic colt will have to really screw up to lose this. In fact, the main scenario looks very much like the North America Cup, with hearty speed in the first half that leaves an outside path for “JK” to swoop through and win.

    Improving from last week, when JK took the lead easily around the half and wasted a bit of real estate doing so, was Lyonssomewhere. The Takter-conditioned pacer has gotten better since the “Cup,” where he led the speed brigade that set up the JK close. In his elim last week he was chasing JK and wound up third due to a great performance by Always B Miki on the outside, closing strongly late. “Miki” gets the 9 hole here and will have to contend with the 8, Sometimes Said, and the 10, Doo Wop Hanover—both negotiating a spot early to be in it.
    Hes Watching, who won the second elim with a pocket trip, may gun it early this time, laying on his speed in an attempt to steal it, but he will have Tellitlikeitis and Luck Be Withyou on his tail, no doubt willing to challenge (a lot of movement is expected in a race of this magnitude).

    Although we would love to call an upset, this race so sets up for JK that it is difficult not to recommend him as a key and look for outstanding odds in the second and third spots for exotics. “Lyons” continues to improve and will offer decent odds enough to couple with JK and if Miki is sent off anywhere near the 9-1 he went off last week he will offer a role in the final three. Those may be the two needed to pull off the trifecta, repeating the results, give or take a place and show, of the JK elim win.

    Eliminating the others mentioned appears sound considering their styles and recent battles and the Cup-like scenario is a good one to support; JK is as good a key horse as you may find in this division and that role may be written in stone after a win here. We’re all sorry JK won’t give us the 12-1 he gave us for the Cup but now that all eyes are open to him, we just have to live with it.

    ’Mistletoe’ Misses

    The $212,150 Mistletoe Shalee sends 10 of the division’s top soph-filly pacers to post on “Pace” night. This is the filly equivalent of the colt charge. It has been a perfect season for Sandbetweenurtoes so far and she will, no doubt, be the crowd’s top choice, followed by Uffizi Hanover and Precocious Beauty. “Uffizi” as a second or third choice may be a wonderful bargain.

    Her “Lynch” final trip at Pocono must be respected as difficult; she needed room after being shuffled; her Lynch elim was hampered by a wide, fast start. If she topples “Sand” she will do so with spades. As well, Gallie Bythe Beach may be granted a better trip if “Beauty” assists in burning Sand in a deeply fast duel.

    The Stalwart Stompers

    The W.R. Haughton reunites the big guys, those hoof-pounding pacers of age and muscle, with a purse of $463,300 on the Pace program. It’s another theater for Sweet Lou to perform as the favorite and another chance for Captaintreacherous to be played with a price on his head.

    Last week “Captain” was fifth and still raced in 1:47.3, only 2 lengths off of “Lou.” He seems to be adjusting to racing against all of the ages in this division, as he remains of better blood than some of the veterans here. Lou will have a bigger challenge from Captain this time around and we are going to take the Cap’s side on this one, since the public is leaning away from him more and more and we want to be with him when he shows his major stuff at a major price (for him).

    Golden Girls

    Leader of the mare pacers, Anndrovette, will look to add the Golden Girls to her resume, as in her six-year-career, she is yet to claim the prize. Last year, Feeling You handed her defeat after sitting the pocket in the six-horse field. In 2012, she missed the board and in 2011 was runner-up to Dreamfair Eternal. This has been a race in recent years where it’s worth it to take an outside horse, one that has the ability to compete in this group as well as pay a price.

    The mare worth considering this year is Mattie Terror Girl, who has spent the winter and summer racing exclusively at the Meadowlands. In the early part of the 2014 season she was already showing promise racing against the top mares in the “A” ranks. Yet, opting to race in the Petticoat series during the “Levy” mayhem at Yonkers, she came out with a second-place-parked-effort from post 8. Heading into this race she has hit the board in every start, with her most recent being extremely impressive. Her first time in a while against A-level mares, she was game in holding off Shebestingin to finish second in 1:50.3. Her home-field advantage, as well as stalking style of racing, will play well for her.

    Versatile Vamps

    We all have to admit that Bee A Magician raced well in the Maturity but we also have to admit her late surge was accomplished by passing some tired male trotters. In this $40,000 leg of the Miss Versatility she will be back among her brood, the elder female trotters, and even at only a mile she will have her work cut out for her.

    Perfect Alliance is back and rested, as is the gal that beat her and “Bee,” Classic Martine. That one already took a leg of this series but in this mile and she has beaten all of them here, including Maven, who has to deal with the 8 hole. “Martine” is hard to dismiss in her current form and only a circumstantial trip will deny her another win.

    But that circumstance may generate an upset. Three back we gave you D’orsay at better than 50-1 and she beat them all with a perfect trip—the kind she may get again here from post 2. So let’s go with D’orsay at another huge price, we suspect. 

    Freshman Trotters

    A quartet of finals for the New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) will have the state’s finest freshmen competing on the Paceundercard.

    The first division has 10 colt trotters fighting for a piece of the $100,000 prize. Highlighting the field are French Laundry and Canepa Hanover, Takter trainees that have dazzled since their baby races. Gradually becoming a powerhouse in the American trotting world, fellow Sweden-native Ake Svanstedt enters with a colt that caught eyes in his debut, parking out Canepa Hanover to maintain control. Now making his second start and possessing speed to put him in contention from post 10, Stonebridge Force will be one to reckon.

    The Daily Double completes with the filly trotting competition, comprised of seven. Maintaining her stride for the whole mile, Mission Brief was victorious in 1:55.1, though she came close to breaking many times during the mile. She seems to have speed but is as green as the greenest, making her a vulnerable favorite. Yet, not many in this field have shown to be anywhere close in competition except Saturday Mornings, who was second to Mission Brief in her fast mile. Already having a win in this series, Saturday Mornings is the logical choice against the Ron Burke trainee.

    The duo of pacing divisions will cap the Pace card, with the colts being the penultimate mile. Kicking home effortlessly in his debut, Artspeak has a large amount of room for improvement. A similar effort to last week’s :26.3 sprint to the wire could easily win him this race. If he’s the right price (not the favorite), he could be the bet.

    Yet, if Artspeak is not the value wanted, Sid Rock is a logical contender. In his second start, he sat closer to the pace and came 3 lengths shy of the leader in a 1:54.2 effort. He could be positioned similarly to Artspeak in this race, but the question is whether he’ll have enough in the tank to storm home.

    The nightcap features nine filly pacers highlighted by Stacia Hanover, who is looking for a series sweep. Svanstedt returns with another impressive gal, Wicked Little Minx. Qualifying in 1:57.1, she debuted by taking the lead, losing it, taking back to the outside and coming a length off of victor Stacia Hanover in 1:54.2. She makes her second start this week, meaning she could receive redemption.

    Consoling Pacemasters

    For colts who either couldn’t make the Pace final or felt the task too daunting, a wonderful restricted event in the early stages of the program offers some nice betting opportunities. The three-year-old race is comprised of 10, with four entering off of off-the-board finishes in the Pace elims. One gelding in this field is intriguing for the fact that he competed well with this group in the Max Hempt Memorial and because of a miscue, was eliminated in the final. Bushwacker, who easily began his sophomore career two-for-two, finished second to speedster Mcwicked in a “Hempt” elim. In the final he was a little too feisty leaving, causing him to break. He’ll likely be value due to Let’s Drink On It, whose fan base will likely make this his redeeming race.

    Brioni is another value contender in the field. Unraced at two, he has proven to be a consistent soph competitor. While he has dabbled in conditioned events, his stakes performances reside in the second tier of the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) and PA Stallion Series. He competed against PASS-caliber horses in the Pennsylvania All Stars last out, where he was second to At Press Time, who was second to Mcwicked in the Hempt final. Hopefully, the public will ignore his gradual improvement.

    Maple Leaf Elims

    Friday, at Mohawk, the big ole square-steppers unite for two six-horse miles in search of the Maple Leaf Trot crown next week. And look who is here …Sebastian K.

    Sebastian K is the world’s fastest trotter, making that mark on a five-eighths track (he broke the 1:50 barrier by a full second at Pocono). He brings a remarkable momentum to Canada in the first elim of the Maple Leaf Trot ($40,000). It is impossible to go against him here, so we will key him with Creatine, who comes from a tough trip in the “Maturity” last week. For a triactor, also use Wheeling N Dealin for a return that may be worthy if the latter pair have any odds worth pumping up the price (Wishing Stone should be the second choice).

    In round two there is room for a bargain or two. Local favorite Intimidate will take some money and so will Mister Herbie as his career ensues as an elder. But Modern Family may not be worth passing up, since chasing Sebastian K and beating a lot of others equal to these, including Market Share, has been a hot game for him. He could go off a decent price in the small field and bury the others in the stretch.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Buffalo
    7/11/14, FB Seelster R2; Studio City R8
    7/12/14, Nifty Prescott R3; +Zipintheruthehall R7

    Hoosier
    7/11/14, Astarisontheway R3; +Captain John Henry R7

    Meadowlands
    7/11/14, Bambino Glide R11; +The X Horse R13

    Mohawk
    7/11/14, Too Shy R13
    7/12/14, +Marlee B R8; +Rub N Tug R8

    Ocean
    7/11/14, Twentysix-fiftytwo R1; OK Amelia R4; Talbot Redneck R7

    Pocono
    7/11/14, +Chrome Cruiser R2
    7/12/14, Milliondollartouch R4; Sky Desperado R12

    Running Aces
    7/12/14, The Wizard Of Odz R5; Emmasphere R7; Morwyn Hanover R10

    Scarborough
    7/12/14, Bullseye R2; Cheryl Leigh R9

    Scioto
    7/10/14, +Bongo R4; Hi Ho Disguise R9; Touch And Go R9
    7/12/14, Spudcam R3; +Winchester R11

    Tioga
    7/11/14, Northern Obsession R5; Kaliska R6; Bobs Girl R9
    7/12/14, McKelie R1; +Heidi Falls R12

    Vernon
    7/10/14, Chocouture R3
    7/11/14, +Choke Hold R7
    7/12/14, Midas Blue Chip R1; Take The Edge Off R5; I Do Hanover R7; +Caidens Colt R8

    Yonkers
    7/11/14, +Summertime Lea R6

    Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.      

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Jul 6, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    The crowd was sharper than us over the weekend, for the most part, but our skim horses-to-watch list (H2W) broke through with a decent percentage of winners and a monstrous place list. Check out the seconds in the review below; many of those place prices are more generous than a lot of win tickets offered in features and overnights.

    Friday’s frosh events at the Meadowlands for New Jersey state-breds were no bargain for our choices. One colt scratched and the other two finished fifth (38-1) and seventh (16-1), respectively. Saturday, July 5, we stayed put at the Meadowlands for the highlighted events, looking over at Pocono in Pennsylvania for a few soph-colt trotters on the Hambletonian Trail.

    The industry focused upon the Hambletonian Maturity’s debut on Saturday at the Meadowlands for reasons obvious to any harness followers. The 1 1/8-mile event featuring only four-year-old trotters pitted Bee A Magician against male foes—a dozen of them—in a field of 14. The unusual double-tiered field featured a few well-known names, including last year’s Hambo winner, Royalty For Life and the Kentucky Futurity winner Creatine, our choice.

    All of the handicappers we know faced the same problem we faced with a field that large and extra real estate. Traffic was expected and could not be predicted. To truly appreciate the French-harness-like configuration of the race before we write about it here, we offer you a look at the replay by clicking here.

    Bee A Magician was the favorite, Royalty For Life was 4-1 and our choice was 9-1. The first two quarters were deciding points for some losers, as “Royalty” went to the top in :25.4 and Creatine was parked three wide for that call and the :55 second call. Creatine took the first-over spot in that whirlwind while Spider Blue Chip took over. Then, “Spider” broke, ending chances for Royalty beside him. Before a blistering 1:23.2 third call, Your So Vain flew three wide to pass them all and take command. Creatine found a second spot inside but was a victim of the fiery fractions to three-quarters and was passed past the 1:51.3 mile point established by “Vain,” who stayed easily to the finish in 2:05.3. “Bee” was all out to finish second, having saved a ton of ground during the speedy quarters and ultimately she passed tired horses to complete the exacta.

    Ake Svanstedt is the driver and trainer of Vain. He adds this win to his ever-growing stable of hot horses, including Sebastian K. The Swedish horseman is all the rage this season. Oddly enough, we liked Creatine for class reasons and his trip demoted all chances to win the “Maturity,” but it was Vain that was beaten by Creatine in their battle at three on The Red Mile in the “Futurity.” Creatine finished fifth in the Maturity.

    In the Meadowlands Pace elims we gave you two of three in the first split, with JK Endofanera, at 1-5 this week, won ($2.80, $2.20, $2.10) and Lyonssomewhere third ($3). Doo Wop Hanover (7-1) finished fourth but made the final field. In round two, we were fourth with Jet Airway (12-1) as He’s Watching won off of a pocket trip.

    We won the Mistletoe Shalee elim mile with Sandbetweenurtoes ($5, $3.20, $2.60), with our second choice, Gallie Bythe Beach third ($3.20).

    The week’s results from the Hambletonian Trail blog come from Pocono Downs, where the soph-colt trotters in the Pennsylvania All Stars splits produced Jett Star second ($5.40, $3.40), who with the favorite delivered an exacta worth $18.60.

    We share the results of our soph-trot analysis’ here with our weekly update. The Hambletonian Trail comes to you in cooperation with TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society. You can read the recap race stories and data on the history of the August classics at the society’s archives.

    TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.

    H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Rush Rules, $14.40, $8.90, $3, Buffalo
    Blissful Escape, $7.10, $4.40, $2.50, Buffalo

    Seconds

    Captain John Henry, $17.20, $8.60, Hoosier
    Best Risque, $13.40, $7.80
    Summertime Lea, $7.40, $3, Yonkers
    Rub N Tug, $6.80, $3.70, Mohawk
    Mary Rose Of Topaz, $5, $3.40, Scarborough
    Light N Shadow, $3.40, $2.80, Meadows
    Im A Lucky Man, $2.60, $2.20 (Exacta $4.60), Scarborough

    Thirds

    Nothinbutanallstar, $8.60, Hoosier
    Insane In Spane, $7.80, Yonkers

    News And Notes

    The $5 million Breeders Crown championships will return to Canada in 2015 after a two-year hiatus. Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) has signed a letter of intent to host all 12 events in the fall of next year, announced WEG Executive Vice-President of Racing Jamie Martin and Tom Charters, president of the Hambletonian Society, which owns and administrates the series. Woodbine hosted all 12 races in 2011 and 2012, handling more than $8.5 million and luring international stars Rapide Lebel and Commander Crowe.

    Champion racehorse and stallion Matts Scooter, 29, was euthanized in New Jersey last week. He had been residing at Perretti Farms, where he had stood at stud virtually his entire career. During his three-year campaign as a racehorse for trainer Harry Poulton, Matts Scooter won 37 times in 61 trips behind the gate, with earnings of $2,944,591. He was voted Horse of the Year in the United States in 1989 and was Canada’s Horse of the Year in ‘88 and ‘89.

    Lightly raced at two and ineligible for the Little Brown Jug and Cane Pace at three, Matts Scooter still managed to earn $1.78 million in 1988, winning 11 races and finishing out of the money only twice in 22 starts. He became the fastest pacer in the history of the sport that fall when he time-trialed in 1:48.2 at The Red Mile. Coming back to the races at four, Matts Scooter earned $1.14 million. His career stakes wins included the Meadowlands Pace, Messenger, Breeders Crown Open Pace, American-National, New Jersey Classic, Prix d’Ete, Nat Christie Memorial, Confederation Cup, Driscoll, Mohawk Gold Cup, Stewart Fraser Memorial, Cornell Memorial and U.S. Pacing Championship.

    During his 20 year career at stud Matts Scooter sons and daughters include numerous divisional and world champions. Mach Three ($2.17 million) was his richest performer and Royal Mattjesty (1:48.4) his fastest. His offspring earned $74.39 million and 210 were $100,000 winners. He also sired 358 1:55 performers and 792 with 2:00 marks. Matts Scooter was inducted into the Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Fame in 1992 and the Living Horse Hall of Fame in Goshen in 2006.

    Sid Alpert, a master innovator of raceway video and sound systems at a number of racetracks and a holder of a number of patents during the last half of the 20th century passed away at age 87. Alpert was a photographer at The Washington Times Herald with Jacqueline Bouvier (later wife of President Kennedy) as one of his protégés. Mr. Alpert became interested in harness racing and seeing a need for improved filming of races, formed his company, Electronic Race Patrol (ERP). Mr. Alpert began his career in racing by filming races in the 1950s at Maryland tracks. He teamed with the DuPont Chemical Company to develop a special film for use at night and was the first to film nighttime races.

    Alpert was the first to introduce live closed circuit race monitors at the tracks he serviced. He was first to show live races and replays on a split-screen. Next, he introduced color to showcase races on television. In the 1960s he was the first to bring live video broadcasting to racetracks in the Midwest. His company also made noted television broadcast advancements at the ill-fated Garden State Park. In 1977, with the track ablaze, Alpert was high atop the facility video-taping the disaster.

    Alpert fostered a remarkable project in 1989 that was ahead of its time. He visualized making full-card racing a staple on cable TV. His concept was to race entire programs at a track in Pennsylvania without anyone in attendance. The races would be shown on an all-racing channel offering wagering. Alpert envisioned having a daily early evening harness racing TV program in the fashion of the popular late night shows. Alpert’s concept included transmitting wagering information to fans at home via fax machine. Unfortunately, due to many reasons, he abandoned the project and then retired.

    The babies were at it again at the Meadowlands on July5. The star of the show wasn’t a two-year-old but a Hambletonain candidate at the very peak of his powers, Jimmy Takter’s Trixton. In a qualifier, Trixton waltzed around the oval in 1:53.3. He meets his stablemate Father Patrick in the Stanley Dancer Memorial on July 12. Perfect Alliance also got some work, touring the oval in 1:53.3 in preparation for the Miss Versatility leg next week.

    Baby trotters led off the card and a couple of fillies. Credit Winner-filly Crazy Beautiful and Lilu Hanover impressed with identical 1:58.1 miles. Takter drove the Cantab Hanover colt Walter White to a 1:59.4 win. Takter pacing pupil Bet You won his third straight non-betting race, this one in 1:57. He’s by Bettors Delight. Trond Smedshammer won a couple, taking the second race with Finish Line, a Yankee Glide gelding in 2:00. Trond also won with Crazshana in 2:01.4. This one is a Crazed gelding. Jonas Czernyson sent out a pair of winners, Alderbaran Eagle in 2:00.3 and a Muscle Hill filly Jolene Jolene in 2:01.

    Baby pacers started off with the speedy Sportswriter filly Yellow Mustang in 1:57. Joe Holloway trains. The cleverly named She’s A Hot Mess redeemed herself after last week’s miscue by beating a field of colts in 1:58. She’s an American Ideal homebred. The next group also contained some impressive colts. The winner was Major War, by American Ideal, in a 1:55.4 mile.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye ~ Find more fun Pye art at PYESITE

  • Handicapping Fireworks

    POSTED Jul 4, 2014 By Derek Simon
    As I have been writing quite a bit about my database studies in recent days, I thought it might be a good time to use some of those studies to analyze a few upcoming races. So, without further ado, let’s look at some of the great races being run this weekend:

    (Click HERE for a sample Pace Profile Report that explains what all the figures mean.)

    JULY 4

    Arlington Park (race 3)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: 1-SLEEPY has the best overall speed, early speed rations (ESRs) and late speed rations (LSRs). Not surprisingly, he’s also the 8-5 morning line favorite. Still, the top choice appears to have a very slim margin of error and I would not take odds of less than 6-5 on him. I’m also more than a little intrigued by 4-PRINCE CHEVAL, who has finished in the money in four of his five trips over the Arlington Park main.

    Arlington Park (race 6)


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    COMMENTS: 1-FRABSTER is both versatile and consistent and could be on the engine in what — on paper, anyway — appears to be a paceless affair (-1 avg. ESR). He’s got a 1.05 Win Factor Rating (not shown) and looks fair at odds of 6-5 or greater.

    Parx Racing (race 6)


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    COMMENTS: Although the speed and pace figures favor 3-MATISSE and 4-RAKETE, I like the price on 6-TRUE AWKENING, who has a 1.09 Win Factor Rating and 7-5 fair odds, yet is 4-1 on the morning line.

    JULY 5

    Belterra Park (race 7)

    (Click HERE for a sample Win Factor Report that explains what all the figures mean.)


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    COMMENTS: 2-EYE LOOK THE PART appears to be the swiftest of the bunch and a great overlay at 9-5 or better.

    JULY 6

    Woodbine (race 7)


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    COMMENTS: 6-WE MISS ARTIE has the best overall speed figures and LSRs — and he also boasts the top Class Rating — in Sunday’s 155th renewal of the Queen’s Plate for Canadian-bred three-year-olds. All that said, the son of Artie Schiller has yet to match the race (speed) par.

  • ‘Bee’ Vs. Boys In Hambletonian Maturity; Meadowlands Pace Elims Skirmishes

    POSTED Jul 2, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    It is not rare in standardbred racing that girls take on the boys in overnight races, meeting the conditions set and many times beating the boys with no particular hoorah. But only once in a blue moon, so to speak, do we find a situation when female stars meet male celebrities in major stakes events.

    The July 4th holiday weekend for harness fans presents a battle of the sexes that many have yearned to see, no less wager upon. Bee A Magician, 2013 Horse of the Year, will meet Royalty For Life, 2013’s Hambletonian winner, and four-year-old other males in the debut of the Hambletonian Maturity. Adding to the thrills of those two stars in the same field is the fact that the race is 1 1/8 miles. That’s July 5, on a program that also features two elims that decide the field of next week’s Meadowlands Pace and one elim for the Mistletoe Shalee.

    There are also Friday and Saturday New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) at the Meadowlands for freshmen of both gaits and sexes.

    Pennsylvania All Stars at Pocono on July 5 feature soph miles for August classic campaiginers. See the analysis on our sister blog, the Hambletonian Trail. Don’t miss our exclusive coverage; click the link after you read this.

    Weekdays are harness plentiful, too, check out the TwinSpires-Hoosier perks for players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    Follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get any and all late-breaking information on racing events and betting challenges that transpire between the publications of the two TwinSpires harness racing blogs.

    Hambletonian Maturity Debuts

    We have been justly critical of Bee A Magician in these blogs after supporting her at two and early at three when she paid decently. But she won all 17 of her starts at three against the same group of fillies and her connections declined a shot at the boys in the Hambletonian.

    At four, we predicted she would have some problems facing older mares and we were right, cashing in on D’orsay at more than 50-1 against her in an Armbro Flight elim. Then, in the final, she finished ninth. It was her first off-the-board finish since going off stride in her second start at two in July 2012. Trainer Nifty Norman said “Bee” scoped sick following that race. Now she has won a qualifier and she will face the boys, including the colt she would have battled when he won the 2013 Hambletonian, Royalty For Life. In the $484,850 Hambletonian Maturity at the Meadowlands on July 5, “Royalty” makes his four-year-old debut. The event will be raced at 1 1/8-miles.

    “She’s acting fine,” said Norman. “I was really happy with her qualifier and [regular driver] Brian thought she was back to her old self, so hopefully we’re good.”

    Conditions for the Hambletonian Maturity allowed for up to 16 starters rather than the traditional 10; 14 in two tiers will start. Considering the size of the field, the extra distance and the vulnerability of the two big stars, this will be a difficult race to assign accurate chances, however, that just makes it more appealing to wager upon. Let’s check out the rest of the field:

    Your So Vain returns to race at four and was last alive during a heat of the Kentucky Futurity at three, so his current shape is in question. Sweet Justice doesn’t not belong in this group. Bambino Glide needs a lucky trip, having too much speed to win as he has over cheaper stock. Fico was improving last year en route to the Hambo but never quite lived up to the class of his division. Wheeling N Dealin, of course, was the disappointment of the division, as he came into his soph season the early choice to win the Hambo and could barely work up enough talent to get into it. If he is to do better at four, this is the spot to make his mark; he certainly has the style for the extra distance involved.

    Flanagan Memory was impressive at Mohawk and also has a style for this distance and can be considered a threat if he is coming into his top shape and last week was not a fluke. Spider Blue Chip has not returned with the spark he had last summer and you have to wonder why he qualified so much before breaking on June 27; a problem is at hand. High Bridge didn’t live up to his soph promises and still looks like a dud. Master Of Law is impossible to assess. Major Athens seems out-classed. Possessed Fashion needs a gift trip. And then there is Creatine …

    Creatine is a classy sort and may be the key to an upset. He developed into quite a colt in the last half of the season (our TwinSpires Players Pool hit him at 5-1 in a Hambo elim) and, of course, he won the Futurity. This year he cannot be faulted for his races against Sebastian K and the crowd will offer him as a huge overlay considering his class and the fact that no one wants to wager on his driver, Mike Lachance, any longer. We will be happy to support him here as our outside contender.

    Pacing Pals

    Two $50,000 Meadowlands Pace elims adorn the July 5 program and even though the first $1-million harness race has lost some of its financial punch, this is a major event and the major glamour boys are here to get a berth in the final.

    In the first elim we all know the damage that JK Endofanera can do since surprising many (not us, we supported him as a major overlay) in the North America Cup, so don’t expect 12-1 this time around. His prime contenders, however, may squeeze some valuable odds out of this affair.

    Doo Wop Hanover didn’t make the “Hempt” final but, as we documented here, he would be all over the consolation field at Pocono and he trounced them at 5-2, well worth the backing). He looms dangerous to “JK” here and may wind up the overlay.

    Lyonssomewhere was burned out early in the “Cup” and primed since then after a brief rest and a good qualifier. He may still be a top contender in this division for Jimmy Takter and he may offer better odds than he did in the Cup, as well as he may ration his wicked speed to work better for him in New Jersey.

    In the second split there should be no dominating factor in the wagering, since a few of these pace on equal terms thus far this season. There seem to be groups of fans for He’s Watching, Tellitlikeitis, Luck Be Withyou and Let’s Drink On It and no doubt each will make themselves heard in the win pool. But the outside contender Jet Airway doesn’t have a fan club and that will send him off with huge odds. Against this ilk in a Cup elim, he was 16-1 and flying, finishing fourth and missing the draw for the extra colt in the final. He has a JK style about him and in this field he could provide the late charge needed to cool down the speed burners of the popular colts mentioned. He is gunning for the final, where he may not be the best, but for this money he may show ‘em just who is boss.

    Sister Pace

    The filly-equivalent to the Meadowlands Pace, the Mistletoe Shalee for soph filly pacers, has one elimination, with the top seven advancing. Receiving byes were Uffizi Hanover, Weeper and Rock N Roll Xample. Drawing the rail in this tough race is Sandbetweenurtoes, who made her debut at the Meadowlands back in May, a 1:50.4 off-the-pace effort with a :26 kicker. She draws the rail and comes in off of a 1:51.1 qualifier behind Shebestingin and might be ready to tackle the better company.

    Gallie Bythe Beach is also a threat, coming off of a terrible trip in the James Lynch Final last week. There, she parked through fast fractions and faltered upon three-quarters. She has some maturing to do, but if she’s the right price, she’s also worth an investment.

    Freshman Fury

    The green brigade takes to the Meadowlands oval for the second time this season in New Jersey Sires Stakes (NJSS) beginning Friday, July 4, with a division each for the frosh colts and fillies.

    First, however, a simple $15,000 two-year-old frosh colt trot for the greenest of green guys opens the Friday card with three coupled entries and a mile’s worth of speculation about wagering. Although the cast has already raced, none of the events are official, though still calculatedly sound. As the public addresses those races in an ordinary manner, we will look for an outside contender that promises improvement by supporting Don’t Mind Me. Coming from a strong baby race win at Pocono and getting post 10 here, the Jim Rayner trainee is as blue-blooded as the rest here (Andover Hall) and is bound to be ignored by bettors. Driver Howard Parker is listed at press time and we like Howard as much as any driver here, though the Meadowlands public may not and that is a plus for us).

    Then the $40,500 NJSS leg for the colts gets rolling and we will take Muscle Blues right back after finishing fifth in a race totally dominated by French Laundry. That one was too much for all involved.

    Fillies are next for a $39,500 purse and again we support Southwind Cartier, who was a solid third at 50-1 last week. That proves all of our notions that ignoring connections, breeding and driver in the early frosh fights offers great value to those of us paying attention. This Chocolatier product, as we documented last week, has talent and will pay off when she is at her best (she paid $9.20 to show, folks). Stick with her.

    The opening NJSS colt division on Saturday features three colts making their debuts, with another five back from last week. Among the colts premiering is Badix Hanover, an Ake Svanstedt trainee. He qualified once, a 1:57.1 with a brush to command around three-eighths. With only one mile to his experience, Svanstedt appears confident in the colt’s ability to improve.

    The closing colt split features Dealt A Winner, who is the only one returning for round two that was victorious in round one. This episode also features colts debuting, one being Rock On The Hill. The Tony Alagna-trainee has two qualifiers under his belt, one a fourth-place effort in 1:57.2 and his latest a 1:56.3 effort on the lead. That effort was eye-catching, as his first outing was an off-the-pace performance. Consistently closing in :26 and change, he should be sharp enough to challenge Dealt A Winner.

    The lone race for the fillies is highlighted by Stacia Hanover, who effortlessly slingshot passed The Show Returns to win with a final quarter in :25.4. Since she drew the outside this week, now’s a good time to abuse the public’s interest. Finishing second to Cashaway in the other split last week, Ideal Nuggets might be the gal to defeat the likely favorite. In her debut, she made a move after the pacesetter approaching three-quarters and came a neck short of victory in 1:55. She responded well in her debut, which shows that her second start should be even better.

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Buffalo
    7/5/14, Rush Rules R5; Zipintheruthehall R7; Blissful Escape R12

    Hoosier
    7/3/14, Captain John Henry R13
    7/5/14, +Terracina As R1; +Nothinbutanallstar R10

    Maywood
    7/4/14, +Pownal Bay Magic R4; +Big Turn On R6

    Meadows
    7/3/14, Bootswiththefur R8; +Light N Shadow R4

    Mohawk
    7/4/14, Best Risque R7; Somethinincredible R10; Rub N Tug R11
    7/5/14, Marlee B R2

    Ocean
    7/3/14, Yacht Party R2

    Plainridge
    7/5/14, +Vanyar Hanover R6

    Pocono
    7/4/14, +Joltin Colt R7
    7/5/14, +R Caan R15
    7/6/14,  +So Reserved R4

    Saratoga
    7/5/14, All Powerful R2; Grab A Crab R7
     
    Scarborough
    7/4/14, +Im A Lucky Man R6
    7/5/14, +Mary Rose Of Topaz R9; +Heaven Touched R11

    Scioto
    7/3/14, +Nutmegs Gigalo R4

    Vernon
    7/5/14, Choke Hold R2

    Yonkers
    7/4/14, +Eagle Now R1; Wishing Stone R6; Summertime Lea R7; +Rossini R8

    Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition.