• FREE Weekend Selections

    POSTED Feb 23, 2011
    THURSDAY

    Aqueduct (02/24/11)
    Race 5 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    6-Cody Samora
    Fair Odds: 4-5
    2-Annual Appeal
    Fair Odds: 6-1
    4-River Fancy
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 4-5 or greater.

    Meydan Racecourse (02/24/11)
    Race 6 * 9.5 Furlongs * Synthetic

    3-Mahbooba (4/5)
    Fair Odds: 1-1
    5-Khawlah (4/1)
    Fair Odds: 9-2
    6-Empire Rose (8/1)
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    BET(S): WIN on 3 at even (1-1) odds or greater.

    Laurel Park (02/24/11)
    Race 2 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    5-Fix You (4/5)
    Fair Odds: 3-5
    6-Girls’ Getaway (4/1)
    Fair Odds: 6-1
    1-Joepaul’streasure (10/1)
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 5 at odds of 3-5 or greater.

    Oaklawn Park (02/24/11)
    Race 2 * 6.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    3-Thunder Hookey (5/2)
    Fair Odds: 5-2
    5-Last Corona (3/2)
    Fair Odds: 8-5
    7-Willow Creek (9/5)
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    BET(S): WIN on 3 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    FRIDAY

    Penn National (02/25/11)
    Race 3 * 5.5 Furlongs * Dirt

    4-Comet of Love (2/1)
    Fair Odds: 4-5
    5-World Gone Wrong (5/2)
    Fair Odds: 9-2
    2-Fancy Up (3/1)
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    BET(S): WIN on 4 at odds of 4-5 or greater.

    SATURDAY

    Gulfstream Park (02/26/11)
    Race 8 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    9-Dancinginherdreams (5/2)
    Fair Odds: 2-1
    1-Mending Hearts (10/1)
    Fair Odds: 8-1
    5-R Heat Lightning (3/1)
    Fair Odds: 4-1

    COMMENTS: Although her three-year-old bow in the Forward Gal Stakes only netted DANCINGINHERDREAMS a -17 late speed ration (LSR), both of her juvenile efforts were outstanding and the daughter of Tapit figures to move forward today. MENDING HEART recorded the best last-race LSR in a maiden win over this track on Jan. 7. Since then, she’s had a series of slow four-furlong drills in preparation for her stakes debut; could light up the tote board. R HEAT LIGHTNING had a very rough trip last time and seems poised for improvement.

    BET(S): WIN on 9 at odds of 2-1 or greater and/or PLACE on 1 at odds of 8-1 or greater.

    Gulfstream Park (02/26/11)
    Race 10 * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    5-Bowman’s Causeway (20/1)
    Fair Odds: 8-1
    7-To Honor And Serve (8/5)
    Fair Odds: 2-1
    1-Soldat (2/1)
    Fair Odds: 5-2

    COMMENTS: The top two morning line choices — To Honor and Serve and Soldat — deserve the respect they are getting, but appear to offer little in the way of value. Hence, I will take a shot with the rapidly-improving BOWMAN’S CAUSEWAY, who rallied strongly to break his maiden on Feb. 11 under jockey Ryan Curatolo, who apparently broke a 0-for-70 streak with horses going to post at odds of 10-1 or greater that day (Bowman’s Causeway was 13-1). On Saturday, Julien Leparoux will be aboard the son of Giant’s Causeway, yet the price figures to be just as enticing. It looks as though TO HONOR AND SERVE will be able to control the pace in here and that makes him tough. SOLDAT should be stalking the morning line favorite throughout and, as his -3 last-race LSR proves, he can motor late.

    BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 8-1 or greater.

    Sunland Park (02/26/11)
    Race 8 * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    1-Manes (4/1)
    Fair Odds: 5-2
    6-Rumor Is (10/1)
    Fair Odds: 9-2
    3-Jarett’s Fool
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    COMMENTS: MANES last race was even more impressive than her 7 ½-length margin of victory would indicate, as she recorded a 72 Brisnet speed rating (today’s race par is 71) and a -7 late speed ration (LSR). The daughter of Proud Irish figures to get a good trip today and looks like the one to beat. Trainer Todd Fincher sends out recent acquisition RUMOR IS for a second time and all the signs point to an improved effort. JARETT’S FOOL could be tough if she can grab the early lead.

    BET(S): WIN on 1 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    Sunland Park (02/26/11)
    Race 10 * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt

    3-Special Kid (5/2)
    Fair Odds: 5-2
    6-Fusa Code (6/1)
    Fair Odds: 9-2
    4-It’s My Party (6/1)
    Fair Odds: 7-2

    COMMENTS: This race will be discussed on Friday’s “SimonSays Racing Podcast.”

    BET(S): WIN on 3 at odds of 5-2 or greater and/or WIN on 6 at odds of 9-2 or greater.

    Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

    Races (Selections): 16 (18)
    Wins: 6
    Rate: 37.5%
    Return: $49.70
    ROI: +38.06%

    (This year's published selections through 02/23/11.)

    Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
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