• Betting the best can be best value

    POSTED Aug 2, 2011
    I'm not sure if Derek Simon's "Betting Against 'the Best'" post was in direct response to my "Get Pumped Day" paean to all things Frankel & Winter Memories, but regardless, this is in response to him and anyone else who dismisses favorites or top horses as automatic underlays.

    I did not bet Frankel; I did bet Winter Memories. My strategy with the latter was to single in the pick four, but honestly, 11-to-20 to win probably offered more value than any other pool considering there is not a doubt in my mind that Winter Memories wins that race way more than 64.5% of the time; 80% (1-to-4) is probably a better estimate.

    In the long run, betting 11-to-20 shots who should be 1-to-4 has about the same value expectation as betting 6-to-1 shots who should be 9-to-2 with the added benefit of less variance. I realize it's far less glamorous to cash $31 on a $20 bet than $140, and touting to your friends that you were all over that $3.10 winner hardly builds cache, but sometimes the price just makes sense.

    Back to Frankel, who was 4-to-5 (55.5% chance) here in the states and probably should have been no worse than 1-to-2 (a 66.67% chance and 20% overlay from his off odds). Sinking your teeth into that kind of overlay is like betting a fair-value 2-to-1 horse at 5-to-2. Again, it's not glamorous, but neither is betting 6-to-5 on a coin flip, and you'd do that all day long, right?
  • 430 comments:

    «Oldest   ‹Older   401 – 430 of 430
    Real Estate Property said...

    Kumar Realty is happy to produce its new residential project Kumar Parth Towers Baner Pune to those families whose wishes are ceaseless and who want an astonishing stay to feel whole. Here take pleasure from the amenities, conditions, services, and facilities because your new home is ready to give you a top-notch lifestyle. So, when you are here in Kumar Parth Towers Baner you enjoy your travelling because everything is well planned for you, also this talk gives you a world’s knowledge to glean a better experience with the family.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Kumar Parth Towers Baner Pune

    Real Estate Property said...

    Birla Sangamwadi is a superfluity residential development that drives towards a better tomorrow and makes life more pleasant. In the extremely pleasant backdrop, you like to live a life that is second to none at this unique property in Pune. Loaded with special differentiation at the excellent location of Sangamwadi, this project extends the standard of life. Comes as a blessing to all the homebuyers who you specifically not imagine when you decide to have a satisfactory life.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Birla Sangamwadi Pune

    Real Estate Property said...

    Lodha Apartments in Pune boast of impeccable designs, world-class amenities, and a prime location. With 3 BHK, and 4 BHK apartments extensive amenities, and excellent connectivity, Lodha Hinjewadi promise a comfortable and convenient lifestyle in Pune.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Lodha Hinjewadi Pune

    Real Estate Properties said...

    Lodha Group brings its signature style to NIBM Pune with Lodha Bella Vita. This residential project boasts luxurious flats and world-class conveniences, setting a new standard for upscale residence.
    For More Details:
    Visit Here: Lodha Bella Vita

    Luxury Properties said...

    M3M Manesar developed by M3M India in the vibrant locality of Manesar, Gurugram, this project offers a variety of Low-Rise and High-Rise Floors & Apartments. Each unit is meticulously crafted to offer maximum comfort, style, and functionality. A variety of facilities are available to residents, such as exercise centers, swimming pools, and exquisitely designed grounds. This residential project combines modern living with natural beauty, creating a perfect environment for families and individuals.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: M3M Manesar

    Real Estate Properties said...

    Riverview City at Loni Kalbhor by Magarpatta City Group is a prestigious new launch in Pune, offering luxurious residences with excellent connectivity. These homes are designed to provide an unparalleled living experience, combining elegance with modernity. The strategic location ensures easy access to Pune's business districts, educational institutions, and recreational spots. Residents can indulge in a variety of amenities, from swimming pools to fitness centers, all within a secure and serene environment.
    For More Details:
    Visit Here: Riverview City At Loni Kalbhor Pune

    Real Estate Property said...


    Nestled amidst a locality with a magnificent heritage, New Launch Lodha Baner offers exclusivity, peace and the possibility to reconnect with yourself. Being centrally located in Baner and well-connected to the corporate headquarters, the cultural and social hub of Pune ensures that your conditions are equally taken care of. the project offers 3/4 BHK luxury flats with classy comforts and encourages an active lifestyle.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Lodha Baner Pune

    Real Estate Advisor said...

    Whether you are a young professional, a growing family, or someone looking to invest in a premium property, M3M Greater Southern Peripheral Road Gurugram offers 2 BHK, 3 BHK, and 4 BHK Residences that meet all your aspirations and more. The proximity to the Southern Peripheral Road ensures seamless access to other parts of the city, making daily commuting a breeze.

    For More Details
    Visit: - M3M Greater Southern Peripheral Road Gurugram

    Real Estate Property said...

    Saheel iTrend Mahalunge Pune, offers an exceptional residential experience in a prime location. These flats are thoughtfully designed with contemporary interiors and optimal space utilization. Residents can enjoy amenities like a clubhouse, fitness centre, and landscaped gardens. The strategic location provides easy access to schools, hospitals, and entertainment options. Embrace a comfortable and convenient lifestyle at Saheel iTrend Mahalunge.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Saheel iTrend Mahalunge Pune

    Avenger said...

    M3M Altitude Sector 65 Gurgaon offers 2 BHK, 3 BHK and 4 BHK Luxury Lifestyle Apartments by M3M Properties. These are spacious living spaces that ensure a lifestyle enriched with amenities like landscaped gardens, swimming pools, and a fitness centre. Embrace a vibrant community atmosphere and enjoy seamless connectivity to prime locations, making it the ideal choice for discerning homebuyers seeking both comfort and sophistication.

    Visit Here: - M3M Altitude Sector 65 Gurgaon

    Luxury Properties said...

    Elevate your lifestyle with state-of-the-art amenities and smart home automation at Godrej Sector 43 Gurgaon. Choose from an array of luxurious 3 BHK, 4 BHK, and 5 BHK apartments in the prime location of Gurugram City.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: Godrej Sector 43 Apartments

    Real Estate Property said...

    Goel Ganga Utopia Bavdhan offers elegant 2 BHK and 3 BHK Apartments in Pune, corresponding elegance with contemporary living. The apartments feature stylish designs and are equipped with top-notch amenities, catering to metropolitan lifestyles. Surrounded by greenery, Goel Ganga Utopia furnishes a serene environment for residents. With its thoughtful architecture and fortunate location, it presents an ideal choice for those seeking solace, style, and convenience in Pune.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Merlin Ventana Baner Pune

    Real Estate Property said...

    Kohinoor Shangrila Pimpri-Chinchwad is a superabundance residential project in Pune. With seamless connectivity, proximity to reputed schools, hospitals, and lifestyle locations, and a greatly designed set-up, you will be living a life of indulgence. Take a virtual tour to see how more world-class comforts and offers 2 BHK, and 3 BHK apartments.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Kohinoor Shangrila Pimpri-Chinchwad Pune

    Jagadish K R said...

    Welcome to Urbanrise Paradise on Earth, where luxury finds its perfect home amidst the serene landscapes of Gangasandra, just off Kanakapura Road in Bangalore. These exquisite villas redefine modern living with their blend of opulence, tranquility, and contemporary design. Explore a lifestyle where every detail is crafted to elevate your experience, offering spacious interiors, premium amenities, and a location that epitomizes convenience and serenity. Discover your sanctuary at Urbanrise Paradise on Earth, where luxury meets nature in perfect harmony.

    For More Details visit - Urbanrise Paradise On Earth

    Real Estate Property said...

    Located in Oberoi Sector 58 Gurgaon offers luxurious 2, 3 & 4 BHK Apartments. The project showcases impeccable design, spacious interiors, and top-notch amenities, ensuring a comfortable and sophisticated lifestyle. With a prime location in Gurugram, residents can enjoy seamless connectivity to major landmarks, shopping centres, and entertainment hubs. Oberoi Sector 58 is a perfect blend of elegance, convenience, and luxury.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Oberoi Sector 58 Gurgaon

    Luxury Properties said...

    Experience the pinnacle of luxury at Oberoi Sector 58, Gurgaon, an upcoming residential development in Gurugram. Offering 2, 3, and 4 BHK residences, this project is equipped with a multitude of facilities. It is designed to provide a contemporary lifestyle, with vast living areas, modern amenities, and a good location.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: Oberoi Realty Sector 58

    Real Estate Advisor said...

    Whiteland Urban Resort Sector 103 is a residential development that provides world-class residences. The project incorporates eco-friendly features and technologies to minimize its environmental impact. Energy-efficient systems, rainwater harvesting, and waste management practices are integral to the development’s design.

    For More Details
    Visit: - Whiteland Urban Resort Sector 103 Gurugram

    Real Estate Property said...

    Kalpataru Bliss Sinhgad Road Pune, offers an exceptional residential experience with contemporary amenities. Nestled in the serene Vadgaon area, the project features ample flats and lush green surroundings. Residents benefit from a swimming pool, gym, children's play area, and 24/7 security. Ideal for families and individuals, it promises a blend of comfort.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Kalpataru Bliss Sinhgad Road

    Luxury Properties said...

    Step into luxury at M3M Manesar, M3M Properties' flagship residential enclave in Gurgaon's Manesar district. Featuring a harmonious mix of low-rise floors, high-rise towers, and luxurious apartments, this project sets new standards for sophisticated urban living.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: M3M Manesar

    Luxury Properties said...

    Whiteland Westin Residences in Sector 103, Dwarka Expressway, Gurgaon, presents luxurious living with its 3 BHK and 4 BHK apartments. Developed by Whiteland Corporation, this project epitomizes modern elegance and comfort, featuring spacious layouts and premium amenities. Perfectly located for convenience and connectivity, it promises a lifestyle of sophistication and tranquility in the heart of Gurgaon.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: Whiteland Westin Residences Gurgaon

    Real Estate Property said...

    Provident Mundhwa in Pune is a luxury residential project by Provident Housing. It offers 2 and 3 BHK Luxury Apartments with modern amenities and lush green surroundings. Strategically located in Mundhwa, it provides easy access to key areas like Kharadi, Koregaon Park, and Magarpatta City. Ideal for families and professionals seeking a satisfied lifestyle.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Provident Mundhwa Pune

    Luxury Properties said...

    M3M Golf Hills in Sector 79, Gurugram, presents elegant 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 BHK luxury apartments. The development offers high-end amenities like a clubhouse, swimming pool, fitness center, and beautifully landscaped gardens. Strategically located, it provides superb connectivity to key highways, business districts, and leisure spots. With its contemporary architecture and serene green surroundings, it delivers a luxurious and convenient lifestyle, perfect for those seeking a sophisticated residence in Gurgaon.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: M3M Golf Hills Sector 79

    Real Estate Property said...

    Birla Estates Is Launching a New Residential Project in Sangamwadi, Pune, Promising Luxurious 2 BHK, 3 BHK Luxury Residences with Contemporary Designs and Top-Notch Amenities. Set In a Prime Location, The Project Offers Easy Access to Essential Facilities and A Tranquil Environment. Stay Updated for More Details on This Upcoming Addition to Pune's Real Estate Scene.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Birla Estates Sangamwadi Pune

    Luxury Properties said...

    M3M Sector 69 Gurgaon will soon see the development of a major commercial complex featuring retail businesses and office space. This new development, located in a sought-after area of Gurugram, promises to deliver a unique blend of commercial opportunities, catering to the needs of modern businesses and shoppers.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: M3M Sector 69 Project In Gurgaon

    Real Estate Property said...

    Gera's Winds of Joy is a residential project located in Hinjewadi, Pune. It offers thoughtfully designed 1 & 2 BHK / 3 & 4.5 BHK Duplex with modern amenities. The project features a range of facilities such as a clubhouse, swimming pool, children's play area, and landscaped gardens. Positioned in the IT hub of Pune, it provides easy access to workplaces, schools, hospitals, etc.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Gera Winds Of Joy Hinjewadi

    Luxury Properties said...

    Central Park Golf Course Extension Road commercial project in Gurgaon boasts state-of-the-art infrastructure and amenities. With a focus on providing a premium business environment, the development includes advanced security systems, ample parking, and lush landscaping, ensuring a comfortable and professional setting for all occupants.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: Central Park Golf Course Extension Road Project

    Real Estate Property said...

    The Birla Manjri Project in Pune by Birla Estates epitomizes luxury and modern living. Situated in the tranquil neighbourhood of Manjri, this residential development offers spacious, well-designed apartments with top-notch amenities. Residents will enjoy excellent connectivity to major city hubs, ensuring convenience alongside comfort. The project promises a formal lifestyle amidst lush greenery, blending urban sophistication.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Birla Manjri Pune

    Luxury Properties said...

    M3M Floors Manesar introduces a new paradigm of upscale living in Gurgaon's Manesar region. Designed to impress, these residential floors offer spacious layouts and elegant interiors that redefine modern aesthetics. Each floor is crafted with meticulous attention to detail, featuring luxurious amenities such as a state-of-the-art gym, swimming pool, and landscaped gardens. The project's strategic location provides easy connectivity to major business hubs and lifestyle destinations, ensuring convenience at every step. Whether you seek tranquility or luxury, it promises an unparalleled living experience where every day feels like a retreat in the heart of Gurugram.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: M3M Floors Manesar Gurugram

    Anonymous said...

    Explore Valor Estate in Malad West, Mumbai. Enjoy contemporary design, top-tier amenities, and excellent connectivity. Your gateway to a sophisticated and convenient lifestyle.

    Luxury Properties said...

    Pre-Launch M3M Floors Manesar, an impending residential development by M3M India, offers luxurious floors with contemporary features. This project is designed to provide a sophisticated lifestyle with modern amenities and spacious layouts. Located in the vibrant city of Gurugram, the property ensures excellent connectivity and convenience. This project promises to deliver an unparalleled living experience, blending elegance and comfort seamlessly for discerning homebuyers.

    For More Details:
    Visit Here: M3M Floors Sector m9 Gurgaon

    «Oldest ‹Older   401 – 430 of 430   Newer› Newest»

    Post a Comment