• Betting the best can be best value

    POSTED Aug 2, 2011
    I'm not sure if Derek Simon's "Betting Against 'the Best'" post was in direct response to my "Get Pumped Day" paean to all things Frankel & Winter Memories, but regardless, this is in response to him and anyone else who dismisses favorites or top horses as automatic underlays.

    I did not bet Frankel; I did bet Winter Memories. My strategy with the latter was to single in the pick four, but honestly, 11-to-20 to win probably offered more value than any other pool considering there is not a doubt in my mind that Winter Memories wins that race way more than 64.5% of the time; 80% (1-to-4) is probably a better estimate.

    In the long run, betting 11-to-20 shots who should be 1-to-4 has about the same value expectation as betting 6-to-1 shots who should be 9-to-2 with the added benefit of less variance. I realize it's far less glamorous to cash $31 on a $20 bet than $140, and touting to your friends that you were all over that $3.10 winner hardly builds cache, but sometimes the price just makes sense.

    Back to Frankel, who was 4-to-5 (55.5% chance) here in the states and probably should have been no worse than 1-to-2 (a 66.67% chance and 20% overlay from his off odds). Sinking your teeth into that kind of overlay is like betting a fair-value 2-to-1 horse at 5-to-2. Again, it's not glamorous, but neither is betting 6-to-5 on a coin flip, and you'd do that all day long, right?
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    Real Estate Property said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Avenger said...

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    Jagadish K R said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Luxury Properties said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Avenger said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...


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    Avenger said...

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    Avenger said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Sobha Sector 63A Project In Gurugram said...

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    Avenger said...

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    Real Estate Properties said...

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    Avenger said...

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    Avenger said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...


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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Avenger said...

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    Real Estate Advisor said...

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    Real Estate Property said...

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    Real Estate Property said...

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    DLF The Dahlias said...

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    Birla Sangamwadi Pune

    Real Estate Property said...

    Omaxe Sector 66 in Gurgaon is an exclusive commercial project offering modern office spaces, retail outlets, and essential amenities. Located on the well-connected Golf Course Extension Road, it ensures high visibility and accessibility. The project features contemporary infrastructure, ample parking, and green spaces, making it an ideal destination for businesses in Gurgaon.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Omaxe Sector 66 Gurgaon

    Avenger said...

    Ganga Sector 79 Gurgaon is the ideal place for your dream home with luxurious 2 BHK, 3 BHK, and 4 BHK apartments. Set against a backdrop of modern architecture, Ganga Realty has meticulously crafted this property to meet the demands of contemporary living. The location ensures that everything you need is within reach, including schools, shopping malls, hospitals, and entertainment centres, making it the perfect choice for urban families.

    Visit Here: - Ganga Sector 79 Gurgaon

    Real Estate Property said...


    The Skyline Flats in Extension, Sector 106, Gurgaon, offer modern, affordable living with excellent connectivity to Dwarka Expressway and nearby areas. The project features well-designed flats with contemporary amenities such as landscaped gardens, a clubhouse, and recreational facilities, making it an ideal choice for families seeking comfort and convenience in a prime location.
    For More Details:
    Visit: MRG The Skyline Extension

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