• Betting the best can be best value

    POSTED Aug 2, 2011
    I'm not sure if Derek Simon's "Betting Against 'the Best'" post was in direct response to my "Get Pumped Day" paean to all things Frankel & Winter Memories, but regardless, this is in response to him and anyone else who dismisses favorites or top horses as automatic underlays.

    I did not bet Frankel; I did bet Winter Memories. My strategy with the latter was to single in the pick four, but honestly, 11-to-20 to win probably offered more value than any other pool considering there is not a doubt in my mind that Winter Memories wins that race way more than 64.5% of the time; 80% (1-to-4) is probably a better estimate.

    In the long run, betting 11-to-20 shots who should be 1-to-4 has about the same value expectation as betting 6-to-1 shots who should be 9-to-2 with the added benefit of less variance. I realize it's far less glamorous to cash $31 on a $20 bet than $140, and touting to your friends that you were all over that $3.10 winner hardly builds cache, but sometimes the price just makes sense.

    Back to Frankel, who was 4-to-5 (55.5% chance) here in the states and probably should have been no worse than 1-to-2 (a 66.67% chance and 20% overlay from his off odds). Sinking your teeth into that kind of overlay is like betting a fair-value 2-to-1 horse at 5-to-2. Again, it's not glamorous, but neither is betting 6-to-5 on a coin flip, and you'd do that all day long, right?
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    Max Antara Gopanapalli delivers a contemporary living experience through its premium 1, 2, and 3 BHK apartments in Hyderabad. This fabulous residential property is equipped with modern facilities and amenities that enhance everyday comfort and convenience. Located in the prime area of Gopanapalli, the project provides excellent connectivity to major commercial hubs, educational institutions, and healthcare facilities. With thoughtful planning and a focus on quality living, it is an ideal choice for homebuyers seeking value and lifestyle benefits.
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    luxuryproperty said...

    Experion Saatori Sector 151 Noida is well-suited for families looking for a secure and comfortable home environment. The layout of the community supports safe movement and family-friendly living. Nearby schools, medical centers, and shopping options make daily life convenient. Spacious homes allow families to grow and adapt over time. Open areas encourage children to play freely while parents enjoy peace of mind. The sense of community within the development helps residents build meaningful connections with neighbors. This thoughtful approach makes it a practical choice for families planning long-term living in Noida.

    luxuryproperty said...

    For individuals planning long-term residential investments, Gami Vashi Navi Mumbai offers notable advantages. The area features a blend of connectivity and peaceful surroundings, making it ideal for daily living. Access to educational institutions, healthcare facilities, and retail spaces enhances convenience. The locality’s planned development contributes to a sense of order and safety. With ongoing growth in Navi Mumbai, this area continues to attract interest from buyers focused on quality living and future potential.

    Realestate said...

    Situated in a prime location, Sobha Sector 63A Gurgaon offers premium 2/3/4 BHK luxury apartments that blend modern design with timeless elegance. The residences are thoughtfully planned with spacious interiors, high-quality materials, and contemporary amenities. Located on Golf Course Extension Road, the project ensures easy access to corporate hubs, shopping destinations, and social infrastructure, delivering a perfect balance of luxury and connectivity.

    luxuryproperty said...

    Godrej Kukatpally Hyderabad is designed for individuals who value convenience without sacrificing quality. The project benefits from being close to key business zones and technology corridors, reducing daily travel stress. At the same time, it offers a calm residential environment with well-maintained green spaces and modern amenities. Homes are planned to support comfortable family living, with efficient layouts and premium finishes. Safety and security are prioritized through controlled access and surveillance systems. The overall planning reflects a lifestyle-focused approach, making the development suitable for people seeking a dependable and well-rounded residential option.

    luxuryproperty said...


    Birla Estates Thane reflects a vision of residential living that prioritizes both quality and community. The project is structured to support everyday needs while offering spaces for relaxation and recreation. Well-planned layouts ensure that homes feel spacious and welcoming. Landscaped areas provide a peaceful setting for leisure activities, while shared amenities encourage social engagement. The emphasis on organized infrastructure enhances convenience and security. Each element of the development is designed to contribute to a comfortable living experience. This thoughtful approach helps residents feel connected to their surroundings while enjoying the privacy of their own homes.

    Tech Ambitions said...

    Techambitions is a leading firm delivering professional Business Process Outsourcing services tailored for growing enterprises. Based in Noida, India, the company specializes in high-quality call center solutions, accurate data management, and responsive customer support services. Techambitions helps businesses reduce operational costs while improving efficiency and service quality. With a skilled workforce and modern infrastructure, the firm supports both startups and established organizations. Companies exploring profitable BPO business opportunities can rely on Techambitions for secure, scalable, and cost-effective outsourcing solutions. Outsource your business processes confidently and focus on core growth while Techambitions handles operations seamlessly.
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    Real Estate Properties said...

    Prestige Kollur Hyderabad introduces a sophisticated residential environment where modern architecture meets practical design. This upcoming project features well-planned apartments equipped with high-quality fittings and contemporary finishes. A wide range of lifestyle amenities including swimming pools, jogging tracks, children’s play areas, and community spaces ensure a fulfilling living experience. Located in one of Hyderabad’s emerging residential corridors, the project enjoys smooth access to business districts and daily essentials. Prestige Kollur is ideal for families and professionals seeking a peaceful yet well-connected address.
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    Visit Here: Prestige Kollur Hyderabad

    Real Estate Properties said...

    Eldeco Seven Peaks in Omicron 1A, Greater Noida, brings contemporary living to life with its luxury 3 and 4 BHK residences. The apartments are thoughtfully designed to offer spacious layouts, stylish interiors, and functional living spaces. The project enjoys excellent connectivity to major roads, metro lines, and commercial hubs. Residents benefit from a host of modern amenities including recreational areas, fitness facilities, landscaped greens, and security features. This project ensures a comfortable and sophisticated lifestyle for modern homeowners.
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    Visit Here: Eldeco Seven Peaks Greater Noida

    Real Estate Property said...

    Experience a refined lifestyle at Ramky One Odyssey Kokapet, a premium residential enclave in Hyderabad. Offering spacious 3 BHK, 3.5 BHK, and 4.5 BHK apartments, the project emphasizes comfort, elegance, and functionality. Its prime location ensures seamless connectivity to key areas of the city. With modern amenities, recreational facilities, and serene open spaces, it offers a well-rounded living environment.
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    Visit: Ramky One Odyssey Kokapet Hyderabad

    luxuryproperty said...

    Living at Eldeco Camelot Sector 17 means enjoying a residential environment that prioritizes clarity and comfort. The project is designed to reduce congestion and promote a sense of openness. Homes are structured to make the best use of available space, ensuring practicality in daily routines. The surroundings feel orderly, contributing to a stress-free atmosphere. Residents can enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxed evenings within a well-maintained community. This development appeals to people who want a stable residential option that supports everyday comfort without unnecessary complexity or overcrowding.

    Real Estate Property said...

    Make Godrej Kukatpally your new address and enjoy a lifestyle of comfort and luxury. This premium residential project offers thoughtfully designed 2 BHK, 3 BHK, and 4 BHK apartments in one of Hyderabad’s most desirable locations. With clear title, it assures a safe and reliable investment. The project features top-class amenities such as a modern clubhouse, gymnasium, swimming pool, jogging tracks, landscaped gardens, and children’s play areas. Excellent connectivity to metro stations, IT hubs, schools, and healthcare facilities adds to its unmatched appeal.
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    Visit: Godrej Kukatpally Hyderabad

    luxuryproperty said...

    Gami Vashi Navi Mumbai supports a comfortable urban lifestyle without overwhelming residents. The environment is designed to meet modern needs while preserving personal space. Balanced development ensures that residents enjoy both convenience and comfort. Daily routines become smoother when homes are thoughtfully planned and well-located. This lifestyle balance is a key reason many buyers consider such developments for long-term living.

    Realestate said...

    Step into refined living at Experion Sector 88A Gurugram, a premium residential project by Experion Developers. The development offers ultra-luxury apartments thoughtfully crafted to provide maximum comfort and style. With modern amenities, serene surroundings, and excellent connectivity to key areas of Gurgaon, this project is ideal for those who value exclusivity, elegance, and a superior living experience.

    Real estate property said...

    Prestige Kollur Hyderabad brings smartly planned 2 BHK, 3 BHK and 4 BHK luxury apartments for urban lifestyles. The project focuses on efficient layouts, quality materials and a secure environment. Amenities such as recreational zones and green spaces enrich the living experience. Situated in Kollur, the project offers smooth connectivity to work and leisure destinations across Hyderabad.

    For More Info: Prestige Kollur Hyderabad

    Real Estate Property said...

    Choose Prestige Kompally for a luxurious and well-connected lifestyle in Hyderabad. This wonderful residential project offers premium 2, 3, and 4 BHK apartments designed to provide comfort, elegance, and functionality. Residents can enjoy top-class amenities such as a modern clubhouse, gymnasium, swimming pool, landscaped gardens, and recreational spaces. Located in the prime Kompally area, the project offers excellent connectivity to key city locations, making it a perfect choice for modern urban living.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Prestige Kompally

    Anonymous said...

    Raymond Mahim is a thoughtfully planned residential project that captures the essence of premium urban living in Mumbai. Located in the well-connected neighborhood of Mahim, the project offers spacious 2 BHK, 3 BHK, and 4 BHK apartments designed to suit the needs of modern families. With contemporary architecture, quality construction, and elegant interiors, the homes provide a comfortable and stylish lifestyle. The project is expected to feature modern amenities that enhance daily living and recreation. Backed by the trusted name of Raymond Realty, Raymond Mahim stands as a promising choice for luxury living and long-term investment.

    For More Info: Raymond Mahim Mumbai

    Real Estate Advisor said...

    Experience premium living at Experion Saatori Sector 151 is a extravagance residential development in Noida. The project offers elegantly designed 3 BHK and 4 BHK apartments with modern layouts and high-quality finishes. Residents can enjoy a host of luxury amenities including landscaped gardens, a fully equipped gym, clubhouse, swimming pool, and recreational spaces. Located in a well-connected sector near the Noida-Greater Noida Expressway, the project provides easy access to major commercial and social hubs.

    For More Details
    Visit: - Experion Saatori Sector 151 Noida

    Real Estate Property said...

    Godrej Plots Shamirpet is designed to offer a peaceful yet well-connected land-owning experience in Hyderabad. This residential plotted development provides thoughtfully planned plots within a secure gated community. Modern amenities, landscaped greenery, and strong infrastructure support a comfortable lifestyle. Located in Shamirpet, the project benefits from excellent connectivity and growth potential. Godrej Plots Shamirpet is an ideal choice for families and investors seeking flexibility, security, and long-term appreciation.
    For More Details:
    Visit: Godrej Plots Shamirpet Hyderabad

    Real Estate Properties said...

    Experion Saatori offers exclusive 4 BHK apartments designed for buyers seeking luxury, space, and privacy. One tower is dedicated to 4 BHK residences with a separate lobby, creating an upscale and private living experience. These homes feature large carpet areas of around 1680 sq ft, expansive living zones, multiple balconies, and well-proportioned bedrooms. The design emphasises comfort, airflow, and functional layouts, making it ideal for large families or premium lifestyle seekers in Noida.

    Tech Ambitions said...

    Techambitions is more than just a BPO service provider; it is a strategic partner for businesses aiming to optimize operations and explore new outsourcing opportunities. With expertise in Inbound Call Center Projects, Data Entry Offline Processing, and customized BPO Projects for Startup, the company delivers solutions that drive efficiency and growth. For businesses looking to outsource processes effectively in Noida, Techambitions offers the right blend of experience, technology, and commitment to excellence.
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    Visit Here: Top Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) Services

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