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  • Derek Simon's Saturday Selections

    POSTED Aug 13, 2011 By Derek Simon


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    Comments: TREASURE BEACH is likely to be favored based on his three outstanding efforts versus Group 1 company in Europe, but I’m less than thrilled with him in this spot (at a low price). To begin with, despite his success overseas, the colt’s trainer Aidan O’Brien is just 2-for-35 with North American starters over the past seven years, including zip-for-12 with betting favorites. What’s more, given the likely slow pace, the cutback in distance — all of Treasure Beach’s recent efforts have been at 12 furlongs — makes me think the son of Galileo will be left with a lot to do late. Hence, I’m going to put my chips on WILLCOX INN, who I think has a lot of talent and appears to relish the Arlington Park lawn. Last time, in the Grade 2 American Derby, Willcox Inn moved readily to take command rounding the far turn and drew off to a four-length score while recording a 100 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 102) and a +1 late speed ration (LSR).

    Bet(s): WIN on 9 at odds of 7-2 or greater.

    Field: 1-Newsdad (20/1 fair odds), 2-Ziyarid (6/1), 3-Treasure Beach (3/1), 4-Crimson China (20/1), 5-Casino Host (12/1), 6-Suntracer (15/1), 7-Banned (7/2), 8-Derby Kitten (15/1), 9-Willcox Inn (7/2) and 10-L’Aiglon (99/1).



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    Comments: STACELITA is a multiple Group 1 winner in Europe with a record of six wins and two second-place finishes in eight lifetime starts against strictly female competition, which she’ll be facing today. The drop in distance figures to help too — the clear favorite.

    Bet(s): WIN on 1 at odds of 7-5 or greater.

    Field: 1-Stacelita (7/5 fair odds), 2-Check The Label (12/1), 3-Fantasia (12/1), 4-Upperline (30/1), 5-Dubawi Heights (12/1), 6-River Jetez (8/1), 7-Cheetah (10/1), 8-Pachattack (15/1), 9-Éclair De Lune (20/1), 10-Romin Robin (40/1) and 11-Never Retreat (8/1).



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Comments: Given the likely odds, I’m inclined to cast my lot with the can’t-get-no-respect veteran GIO PONTI, who I think will improve off his latest. Despite over $5 million in career earnings, Gio Ponti seems to be the bane of most bettors existence — at least those that I know — yet he always runs hard and, today, should get a very familiar pace scenario. If the son of Tale of the Cat can work out a decent trip, I think he has a big shot to join Lee Majors and become a six million dollar mammal. I also think DEAN’S KITTEN is worth a deuce or two at the right price, while ZACK HALL looks best among a fairly weak foreign contingent.


    Bet(s): WIN on 5 at odds of 2-1 or greater.

    Field: 1-Rahystrada (10/1 fair odds), 2-Tajaaweed (12/1), 3-Dean’s Kitten (15/1), 4-Zack Hall (10/1), 5-Gio Ponti (2/1), 6-Proceed Bee (40/1), 7-Cape Blanco (5/2), 8-Mission Approved (10/1), 9-Wigmore Hall (10/1) and 10-General Perfect (30/1).
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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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