Tackling the Test
I’ll start with the Test Stakes — a Grade I, seven-furlong contest for three-year-old fillies, scheduled to be run on Saturday at Saratoga:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiFFu120emrcDBfrriUpR0TZduftHgBce9TzznqG3oncgFsdqt_ejdVj9UsmuvPs7GsrXIgyO9d6LRdUQ5-tFRNJhHBPbHd5wGC9S7RTHNJrtLYDbVi3c1X6FR7iignVLTiBm1hHMPWdXk/s400/9SAR080611PPR.jpg)
1-AVA K. (20/1 on the morning line)
Although regular rider Ramon Dominguez sticks with trainer Michael Hushion’s other entry, Roman Treasure, I actually think this filly has a better shot of posing for pictures in the Saratoga winner’s enclosure this weekend. Her speed figures are less-filling, but her late speed rations (LSRs) taste great and I think “Ava” may be capable of upping her game in this, her first Grade I try.
Fair Odds: 8-1
2-AMERICAN LADY (5/1)
This lightly-raced filly has a lot going for it. To begin with, she is trained by Bob Baffert, a guy who has a 36 percent winning average with horses switching from a synthetic surface to a dirt surface over the past five years, according to Daily Racing Form Formulator. What’s more, the daughter of Stormy Atlantic looked like a whale amongst minnows in her latest, swallowing up her older rivals in the stretch like they were plankton (how's that for an obscure — probably for a reason — analogy?).
Fair Odds: 7-2
3-ROMAN TREASURE (15/1)
Frontrunning horses on dirt are almost always dangerous and this filly is no exception. However, there are other speed horses in Saturday’s field, most notably Savvy Supreme, so I expect the pace to at least be reasonable (I’m guessing an early speed ration of -8 or thereabouts). Hence, I would insist on a price if playing Roman Treasure.
Fair Odds: 12-1
4-COAX LIBERTY (12/1)
I make it a habit to avoid late-running horses with poor LSRs like I avoid movies about cars that turn into killing machines (not that such a cartoonish theme would ever make it to the silver screen).
Fair Odds: 20-1
5-SAVVY SUPREME (15/1)
I believed that this lass possessed the running style to be effective in the one-mile, Grade I Acorn run at Belmont Park on June 11. She did… unfortunately she lacked the talent and stamina. Last time, the Todd Pletcher trainee dropped into an ungraded sprint and was beaten once again — this time as the 8-5 favorite. Somehow I don’t think another Grade I race is the tonic she needs.
Fair Odds: 30-1
6-TURBULENT DESCENT (6/5)
On the positive side, Turbulent Descent is undefeated at the Test distance of seven panels and her 104 Brisnet speed figure last time was a lifetime best and came in a race that saw the winner (It’s Tricky) annex the Mother Goose in her very next start. On the negative side, the daughter of Congrats has lost her only two races on dirt, may not appreciate a fast pace and has just so-so LSRs. Oh, and did I mention her trainer, Mike Puype, is 1-for-15 with horses coming off of a layoff of seven weeks or more in graded stakes events over the past five years?
Fair Odds: 5-2
7-POMEROYS PISTOL (8/1)
Amy Tarant-trained filly lured jockey John Velazquez from Savvy Supreme, who he’d ridden in all five of her career starts — that’s a positive. On the minus side, this daughter of Pomeroy has recorded just mediocre LSRs (see Coax Liberty).
Fair Odds: 10-1
8-HER SMILE (4/1)
I have a new strategy for evaluating Todd Pletcher-trained horses that has worked amazingly well this year: I consider his charges if they have competitive speed figure, but ho-hum pace figures; and I discard them if both the pace and speed numbers are good. By those rules, Her Smile is a strong contender on Saturday, especially since both her ESRs and LSRs have been steadily improving.
Fair Odds: 9-2
9-SALTY STRIKE (12/1)
After two solid efforts at Churchill Downs, including a victory in the Grade 3 Dogwood, “Salty” struck out in the Mother Goose after attending a moderate pace (-6 ESR). This weekend she cuts back in distance and has definite “rebound” potential at what is sure to be a nice price.
Fair Odds: 8-1
WAGERING STRATEGY: First and foremost, I would toss TURBULENT DESCENT if she is anywhere near her morning line odds come post time. Secondly, I would use AMERICAN LADY (at odds of 7-2 or greater) in all my wagers and toss in various exotic combinations featuring SALTY STRIKE, AVA K. and to a lesser degree (depending on price) HER SMILE.
BET(S): WIN on 2 at odds of 7-2 or greater.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKyP3p1mdWTZwAbyUkl16Ec127BRn4iwDZKpVr8NXwxYJvrL5vDYrpgz61qH0Yn4uTH7Ge6FTWV3NDL-GRcRVAKsWPriNcpYODBQeR5sPLTSYt3VKgU5CcccK4yGFNFWolTdwl0mQCaSzT/s400/PaceFigureKey.jpg)
Hambletonian On Tap at the ‘Big M’
Among the other big races on Saturday, is the $1.5 million Hambletonian for three-year-old standardbred trotters. The “Hambo” is the 9th race on a special 15-race afternoon card at the “Big M” and is scheduled to go off at 3:44 p.m. ET.
Of course, it goes without saying that one should check out Frank Cotolo’s poignant analysis of the big events or participate in the Player’s Pool that Frank will be heading up to get all of his stellar insights; however, if it’s non-stellar insights that one seeks… hey, I’m the man.
Below are my top Win Factor contenders for Saturday’s Meadowlands program (as always, I suggest using the fair odds as a guide to your betting):
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3_MvPCMFpiu74c8y9zdavO0AK80lfeuAkKUyAEupquxATZje4CGdCNavQA10frq7b-mbLwxaAKszpyMDfgO2MtE4S-QZUrr_BLCs7poNpcC0U4p22aKAEB7LsD_9nVWahGxFx2VXAKvrA/s400/3M080611.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglq236musQTUpmA4MMZBQPshcfBwgq-klYPhDgl8xV3vEdpjQSrmYiEyW5mG-LsMt5AZO655nemLl1cHnOd4khF3VGEq1IbF29tQyXSOpWlJZMOoJ-xv794ms1UDCf5ENxz-mh97Y4e7wo/s400/7M080611.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZkHGoye4gdp6C2DEbF8VeXbrUj5Ov-6c938tF5PILQGSENhuryGVRM3u0miWxZm4J-cedEoPk1HlKqfH3U4o7iMjt9cjo5P5oX2J_eFpLdFY-l6PNzFUhT44wNMlawnQcICC3LWo8Xm2Q/s400/8M080611.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-6nRg9-HOweOs3dq5GiDLZ-8Mjq_fod6kVbFet2UUo26ji-ZjLsGdbZUR3OvL5jIsz3SVmL5zelkhddl5rfOZx91TYoByE8O2pKS7EI84BsdOsEhIn4XDqfoLSHcWO8Tgeg3MNM2yP9gT/s400/9M080611.jpg)
35 comments:
Should the field stay intact, a pace meltdown looms, if it helps bring down Turbulent Descent to the place (or better yet show spot) the vertical payoffs could get interesting.
Good luck.
Thanks Derek for pointing out the quality of American Lady's allowance win - Martin Garcia never set her down and she still romped.
I think at the odds I can still give Pomeroy's Pistol a chance with the jock switch. She wasn't in the bridle early in the Prioress, which makes her LOOK like a closer. I think PPistol needs to be closer to the pace, and she WILL be closer to the pace in the Test. Coupled with the wide trip I still think she's better than Her Smile, although on the numbers alone that may be difficult to assert.
Finally, I think your ML on Turbulent Descent is spot on. I had her at 5/2 on my line.
Here is my line for the Test:
TurbD - 5/2
American Lady - 7/2
Pomeroys Pistol - 5.5/1
Her Smile - 6/1
Salty Strike - 10/1
My main assumption here is the one-dimensional speed horses (Roman Treasure, Savvy Supreme, and possibly Ava K., if she is sent from the rail) will have a slugfest on the lead.
Anthony Kelzenberg
I am REALLY curious about that 3f work for Pomeroy's Pistol. I know you like it "Knight Sky," as you posted:
http://theknightskyracing.blogspot.com/2011/08/pomeroys-pistol-vehicle-for-clairvoyant.htm
But I'm not so sure. I just don't see what such a fast, yet short work accomplishes in this instance, but I'm fascinated to see how it turns out.
However, the bottom line is we MUST make money if Turbulent Descent loses as a heavy favorite, because all of us think she's a potential underlay in this spot.
Tutuapp . https://kodi.software/ . https://showbox.run/
Your content is a high quality, it is great to shared this.카지노사이트
Really nice and interesting post. I was looking for this kind of information and enjoyed reading this one. 한국야동닷컴
Also feel free to visit may webpage check this link
국산야동
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with extra information? It is extremely helpful for me. 국산야동
Also feel free to visit may webpage check this link
야설
Sunteck Crescent Park is a new modern residential project located in Kalyan developed by Sunteck Realty. This project is immense and well-designed with perfect ventilation that provides natural light & fresh air flow throughout the day for every corner of your residence making it an ideal place to live in peace away from close enough to enjoy all facilities available within reachable space.
For More Details
Visit:- Sunteck Crescent Park
If you're looking for a luxurious lifestyle in a prime location in Pimpri-Chinchwad, Pune, then this property is perfect for you. It offers plenty of opportunities to socialize with like-minded people and spaces to spend your leisure time. With 24-hour security and ample parking space, this property is an excellent choice for those who want to call it home.
To Know More
Visit Here:- Kohinoor Shangrila Pune
Prestige Bellanza Mulund Mumbai is a comfortable habitat that sprawls over the balcony deck and the majestic views. Even is something that is moving and captivating to you. Let’s groove in the best homes where you observe each moment in your spacious home. It offers a wide range of home sizes and amenities, so every buyer can locate their dream home.
To Know More - Prestige Bellanza Mulund
great opportunities for people who is looking for luxurious ambiance are waiting in our izspa best in the city 100% satisfy rate since many years.
I'm always impressed by the diversity of topics you cover.
Nyati Equinox Bavdhan Residential offers 2 BHK and 3 BHK apartments that make it easy for people to create beautiful designs for their residences. This is a place where you can plan a lifetime of happiness. This house fits into a Pune property and has many essential amenities that make it elegant.
For More Details
Visit Here - Nyati Equinox Pune
Godrej Park World lives a luxurious life in an elegant residential project that presents a wonderful option in Hinjewadi, Pune. Available in 1/2/3 BHK apartments, the homes here will have well-planned natural distancing and innovative ventilation that will guarantee fresh air and natural light at all times of the day.
For More Information
Visit Here - Godrej Park World Pune
Century Novus is a residential complex located in the best location in Jakkur Bangalore. The project offers the best configuration of 2 BHK and 3 BHK luxury residences. The residents enjoy a spacious green landscape designed with a lounge, swimming pool, crèche, driver's room, parking, jogging track, reading lounge, gym, indoor games, library, nature walk, activity, and study lounge with pets.
Visit us - Century Novus Jakkur
Godrej Woodscape Budigere Cross Bangalore is a residential development that has derived its name from the latitude and longitude coordinates. This project offers the best configuration of 2 BHK, 3 BHK, and 4 BHK luxury homes. Offering a blend of modern aesthetics and comfortable living, this project stands as the epitome of contemporary architecture and thoughtful design.
Visit Here - Godrej Woodscape
Mana Dale is a residential project situated at the finest location in Kodathi, Sarjapur Road, Bangalore. Various range of highly efficient 3 BHK & 4 BHK Luxury Homes in Bangalore. Situated in the vibrant city of Bangalore, Kodathi is a burgeoning locality known for its strategic location, excellent connectivity, and burgeoning real estate developments.
For More Info
Visit: Mana Dale
Omaxe Dwarka is a recently launched commercial project by Omaxe Group in Delhi. This project is designed to satisfy all the needs you may have. Here, wonderful space planning, top-notch facilities, and impeccable execution benefit the high-flying lifestyle. Carefully designed infrastructure instills hassle-free living. The proximity to social infrastructure brings peace of mind to your disposal.
For More Info
Visit Here - Omaxe Dwarka Delhi
Kohinoor Famville is a residential project developed by Kohinoor Group, located in Pune. This project offers a comfortable and affordable lifestyle that is crafted to bring happiness to your life. Inspired by modern living, this project comprises of two luxurious and well-crafted apartment buildings. this project provides a peaceful and comfortable lifestyle that will make your dream of owning a home come true.
For More Details
Visit: Kohinoor Famville Hinjewadi
Mana Dale is nestled among the beautiful views of the Location, offering modern luxury homes with lush green valleys located in Sarjapur Bangalore. Available best configuration 3 and 4 BHK luxury complex. One of the key highlights of this project is its focus on creating a sustainable and eco-friendly living environment.
Visit Here - Mana Dale Sarjapur Bengaluru
M3M Mansions Sector 113 Gurgaon is a promising investment opportunity, offering high rental returns and land preference value. The surrounding area is a flourishing hub that shares its proximity with major locations in the city. This property offers three types of apartments: 2BHK, 3BHK, and 4BHK, all of which come with a wide range of amenities. This locality, with stunning and lush green views, is one of the exceptionally desirable areas of the charming city of Coimbatore.
For More Details
Visit Here - M3M Mansions Sector 113
Vanam At Purva Soukhyam offers contemporary amenities that offer a better lifestyle to you and your family. Offering well-planned Residential Plots that come with amenities and specifications you won't forget. One of the most striking features of this campus is its focus on green spaces and eco-friendly initiatives.
Visit us - Vanam At Purva Soukhyam
Brigade Xanadu Destino located in Mogappair Chennai is your destination of happiness where all your dreams come true. Offering you exquisitely designed 1, 2, and 3-BHK residential apartments. The property has many features but the amenities and superior artwork details are the most attractive features. Everything that lives here differentiates it and sets it apart from other projects.
Visit Here - Brigade Xanadu Destino in Mogappair Chennai
Vanam At Purva Soukhyam Chennai is a pre-launching plotted development project by Puravankara Group. The project offers residential plots with premium amenities and facilities. The lush greenery creates an optimistic atmosphere.
For More Details
Visit Here - Vanam At Purva Soukhyam Chennai
Elite Sector 10 Noida Extension is the latest launched super-luxurious residential complex that sets high standards for sophisticated living. It offers you to choose from spacious and lavish 2 BHK & 3 BHK residential apartments for sale. Spread over wide acres, This residential flats is a simple creation in urban living inspired by nature.
For More Details
Visit Here - Elite Sector 10 Noida Extension
MRG Crown Sector 106 Gurgaon is a new residential plotted development with a modern lifestyle where you can experience quality living. Built amidst lush greenery and natural landscape. The project is designed to offer luxurious living space at competitive prices, making it an attractive investment opportunity for home buyers looking to purchase a piece of prime real estate in Gurugram.
For More Details
Visit Here - MRG Crown Sector 106
Prestige Clairemont Kokapet is a newly launched residential project that offers a safe and luxurious living environment, making it the perfect location in Hyderabad for you and your family to experience a high-end lifestyle in your ideal home. This property provides 3 BHK and 4 BHK luxurious apartments equipped with stylish amenities.
For More Details
Visit Here - Prestige Clairemont Hyderabad
A tension headache, or concentration headache, can feel like there’s a tight band wrapped around your head female to male spa near me can provide relief for this kind of headache.
Mana Dale is an exclusive community that is opening doors to new ways of living in Kodathi Bangalore. Available spacious floor plan 3 and 4 BHK residential accommodation. Beyond the confines of the residential complex, residents of this accommodation have access to a plethora of conveniences and attractions in the surrounding area.
Visit Here - Mana Dale Bangalore
Prestige Sunset Park Bengaluru offers contemporary amenities that enhance the lifestyle of you and your family. The project offers luxurious 1 BHK, 2 BHK, & 3 BHK luxurious flats with multiple features. Whether you want to take a refreshing swim in the sparkling pool, relax in the spa and sauna, or have an intense workout in the fully equipped gym, the project aims to meet everyone's needs.
For More Details
Visit Here - Prestige Sunset Park Bengaluru
Godrej Neopolis Kokapet is an incoming residential project located in Hyderabad. This project suggests 1BHK, 2BHK & 3BHK luxury residences with more amenities like a clubhouse, kid’s play area, swimming pool, and entertainment area. Maintain a beneficial balance of physical and mental well-being here through the structure of more amenities.
For More Details
Visit Here - Godrej Neopolis Kokapet Hyderabad
Godrej Neopolis Kokapet Hyderabad is a premium residential apartment that brings you one step closer to living a luxurious life. This project also ensures you are continuously in safe hands. This property offers 1 BHK, 2 BHK, and 3 BHK flats where life changes in your requirement.
For More Details
Visit Here - Godrej Neopolis Kokapet Hyderabad
Assetz Melodies Of Life is a residential project located off Hosa Road, Bangalore. The project offers luxurious villa plots with modern amenities such as a 24-hour water supply, a badminton court, CCTV cameras, a compound, an entrance gate with a security cabin, a gated community, a gym, health facilities, a kids' pool, a landscaped garden, a multi-purpose play court, and snooker. The area has excellent connectivity to other parts of Bengaluru and boasts a wide range of social infrastructure.
Visit Here - Assetz Melodies Of Life Bangalore
Discover the epitome of luxury living with Experion Sector 45 Noida. Designed to exceed expectations, these residences offer a blend of sophistication and comfort. Experience generous interiors, high-end finishes, and contemporary amenities designed to meet all your needs. Located in the heart of Noida's bustling neighbourhood, this project provides convenient access to the city's key attractions and business hubs.
For More Details
Visit Here - Experion Sector 45 Noida
Walmart is sponsoring retailers that are now holding an online survey at Walmart Survey for all the clients to leave valuable feedback at the official Walmart Survey and win rewards.
Post a Comment