• Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 10-3-11

    POSTED Oct 2, 2011
    We began big with two winners this past weekend and they were enough to make a profit, certainly if we didn’t play all of our contenders, which rarely we do. It’s fun, however, to see that a workup of our win plays turns into a profit per $2-based bets (see below).  

    Friday, as September concluded, we were hot with the Bluegrass events at The Red Mile. Two powerfully priced winners blackened the ink further in our bankrolls. We began with a pass, figuring Delano would romp but he was very short and lost; we didn’t. Then Muscolo finished seventh. 

    Next, in the third round of Bluegrasses for frosh-colt trotters, we hit with From Above. Unexpectedly, the colt paid $18.60. 

    Later, Melt In Your Mouth, in the Bluegrass nightcap for the colts, finished fourth. 

    Frosh-filly pacing Bluegrasses were the other features and the second split was a pass (American Jewel, our choice, won). That didn’t matter since Destiny’s Chance, a rogue filly ineligible to the upcoming Breeders Crown (unless supplemented) beat a bunch of “Crown” hopefuls, racing as well as we expected, though the public did not.  

    Destiny’s Chance paid $63 to win.  

    Our two-dollar-based workup for Friday showed an investment of $8 with a return of $81. It’s an outrageous return-on-investment, of course, but if we add the $14 lost on the Saturday card, (none of our seven suggested contenders won), our profit is $59.   

    Now let’s add any win tickets we played from our Cal-Expo Pick-4 experience. Our $1 ticket cost us $4 (there was one scratch from our suggested $8 ticket). We lost but we played horses on the ticket to win if they were 4-1 or up. This means we played You Go Shirl (21-1) and Mow Em Down (53-1), adding $2 to our investment. 

    Our two-dollar-based workup for the two days showed an investment of $26 with a return of $81. That’s $55 profit. This is how we do workups no matter how many or how few horses we play. As I said, this example includes every contender we suggested, not that we would play them all—based on closing odds—and if we show a two-dollar-based profit this way we can be sure we made a profit using a betting scheme based on our judgment for overlays.  

    Keeping records is extremely important, as we continually emphasize, so that you understand if you are winning or losing in the long run. Workups can show great profits over the course of a weekend or a week but what matters is the extent of the playing season. Exotics should also be accounted separately.  

    Our exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog is clocking the “Crown”-eligible contenders (results, archives at Hambletonian Society) right to the the elimination rounds program at Woodbine in late October. Those two weeks of elims and finals will be covered live on TwinSpires while we work as the U.S. headquarters for all the live action. Special deals will be available at TwinSpires, so keep in tune with those pages as well as these TwinSpires blogs.  

    Following us on Twitter offers you late picks on races not included in this blog and updates on choices we speak about here. As well as tweeting some profit-making plays, we leave some links and guide you to news and information.

    Harness News

    We warned you to watch out for horses trained and/or driven by Gerald Longo at the current Colonial Downs meet because his horses win under the radar of many players. On Wednesday, Sept. 28, Longo won with Ice Express, paying $26. It was one of only five horses he raced last week, tossing a two-dollar-based profit on Longo-trained horses. Watch for these Longo entries: ZZZT, Andi Rose and Free Parkin Behind in next week’s programs. 

    Heart problems are surfacing as problems for some top pacers. It was discovered that See You At Peelers, the season’s top soph-pacing filly, is being treated for “inflammation of the heart, caused by a virus, which can reportedly be treated by medication.”  

    She might be able return for the Breeders Crown in late October. She has not raced since Sept. 4, when she was placed second at Tioga Downs after having won. Trainer Jimmy Takter has kept her in training while being treated for the malady. 

    Broad Bahn, this year’s Hambletonian winner, who has not won since that race and recently scared his connections with a strange tanking in the Canadian Trotting Classic, has been diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat. Noel Daley, his trainer, said that the condition can come and go, and he didn’t know if it would cause a problem in the Oct. 2 Kentucky Futurity. “Bahn” lost that race but the condition has not been blamed. Time will tell if Bahn shows up for the Breeders Crown in a few weeks. 

    We loved On The Glass in the Milton Stakes elim and she made a forward move but finished second and lost a berth in the final. On Oct. 2 she won an Allerage Stakes for older pacing mares at 29-1 ($60 to win). You have to keep an eye on horses we suggest for more than one race; be forgiving, for often they give back with a vengeance.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

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